Contracts for the Big-3

[Phileas Fogg]

Except most of it was about Matthews scoring himself. The idea of his relative benefit to his linemates is confined to one game from Kapanen.

This, of course, is weighed against the 180 or so games we've actually seen from Nylander. Including, last year, a fair number without Matthews.

I get it man. I've seen your schtick. You get personal because you don't have much else. But I've dealt with it from much cleverer people than you and it doesn't affect me, no matter how often you want to derail the board with it.

That's exactly right -confined to one game with Kapenen. Hence my caveat about it being too small a sample size, but worth observing as a control. I'm glad you went back to read it.

Another very interesting part of your post above - the only person that I've "derailed" so to speak, in fairly limited polite exchanges, is you - yet you call that interaction "the board". It speaks to your identity and authority very much encapsulated within a message board. Consider this.

 

[Kin]

That's exactly right -confined to one game with Kapenen. Hence my caveat about it being too small a sample size, but worth observing as a control. I'm glad you went back to read it.

It's too small a sample size to draw anything from it whatsoever. I can just as easily point out the other games where Matthews didn't do that with his linemates as indicative of the opposite.

But you know, I'm sure the slightly more urbane sickbeast routine you're working on is going to go down a hit.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

That's exactly right -confined to one game with Kapenen. Hence my caveat about it being too small a sample size, but worth observing as a control. I'm glad you went back to read it.

It's too small a sample size to draw anything from it whatsoever. I can just as easily point out the other games where Matthews didn't do that with his linemates as indicative of the opposite.

But you know, I'm sure the slightly more urbane sickbeast routine you're working on is going to go down a hit.

Yes, one more time, as originally stated, and in a post after, it is too preliminary a sample size to draw anything conclusive, but it's worth tracking as a control. You won't be successful on making a rebuttal on a point that's already been conceded in the original, but you can continue on it if you wish. Yes, it's worth the effort to stand up to your sarcasm and antisocial tendencies, because I can see intelligence that many can benefit from, if just for a small bit of self-reflection on your part, which I'll help with on occasion.

 

[Kin]

Yes, one more time, as originally stated...

Before you then draw an inference as being "likely" when the  only indication is of a commonly held truth regardless. Talented linemates help each other score. Not news. Matthews is a heck of an offensive player, something magnified by playing against three non-playoff teams, again is not news.

Thinking that it's "likely" that Nylander's worth as a player is significantly lessened if he's not playing with Matthews is...entirely unsupported conjecture when nearly every other comp to Nylander that gets used from Pastrnak to Ehlers to Scheifele etc..also had talented linemates. Even with last night's game.

But keep going, Jughead.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

Yes, one more time, as originally stated...

Before you then draw an inference as being "likely" when the  only indication is of a commonly held truth regardless. Talented linemates help each other score. Not news. Matthews is a heck of an offensive player, something magnified by playing against three non-playoff teams, again is not news.

Thinking that it's "likely" that Nylander's worth as a player is significantly lessened if he's not playing with Matthews is...entirely unsupported conjecture when nearly every other comp to Nylander that gets used from Pastrnak to Ehlers to Scheifele etc..also had talented linemates. Even with last night's game.

But keep going, Jughead.

See, now here's the discussion I was hoping to have initially, if you had simply dispensed with the sarcasm which turned out to be due to nothing more than your comprehension error. Yes, those three players each have talented linemates, and each signed deals which are reportedly more representative to what Dubas wants to pay on a long term deal. What could be considered is which player is overrepresented in making the rest of the line perform better. There's an interesting opportunity to do this with Nylander out of the lineup. I'll try to find what Nylander's PPG was last year without Matthews vs with, and vice versa, as that would be interesting as well, along with the other 3 contracts.

 

[Kin]

Yes, those three players each have talented linemates, and each signed deals which are reportedly more representative to what Dubas wants to pay on a long term deal.

Except that's not true as a % of the cap as I've shown. I did a whole post about it with math and everything. The Scheifele deal, as a % of the cap, is closer to Nylander's ask than Dubas' reported offer in terms of % by points. The other guys are wingers.

What could be considered is which player is overrepresented in making the rest of the line perform better. There's an interesting opportunity to do this with Nylander out of the lineup. I'll try to find what Nylander's PPG was last year without Matthews vs with, and vice versa, as that would be interesting as well, along with the other 3 contracts.

Those were just three examples off the top of my head. They're true with most others as well. Draisaitl had a pretty good linemate, still got his money. Tom Wilson just got 5.1 million for scoring 35 points playing with Ovechkin and Backstrom. Nylander at 8 million scoring 60 with Hyman and three-quarters of Matthews is downright reasonable there.

I did a quick look at Nylander's PPG without Matthews in the line-up and, in the only lengthy span of it, it did as expected. It dipped slightly. Not hugely, he scored 6 points in 10 games, but that's still too small a sample size to draw anything meaningful from it. One more point in those 10 games, which could easily be a product of random chance, and his scoring rate is effectively the same.

But the reality is there can't be a control here because where Nylander fits into the league's salary structure is a moving target. You can't isolate everyone from their linemates or conclusively determine who is responsible for which goal. Some comps benefit Nylander's ask, others lean for the team. Sure, some people will say "The Oilers/Caps were stupid" but Nylander's team can just as easily say "Pastrnak was stupid".

Kudos for refocusing on the substantive when the personal shots didn't work but there's really no need for the faux academia here. We're not dealing with an exact science.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

Kudos for refocusing on the substantive when the personal shots didn't work but there's really no need for the faux academia here. We're not dealing with an exact science.

On the contrary, there have been no personal shots, rather, opportunities for your self-reflection. If you're interested, I could give you a few book titles you might consider reading, unfortunately nothing from Bob Montana, but this is work in progress.

Regarding the subject matter; let me perhaps go about it from another angle. If you were the GM of buffalo, considering the Tavares effect, what measurables would you have taken into consideration in hindsight before signing Moulson and Okposo to the salary and term they did?

 

[Kin]

Regarding the subject matter; let me perhaps go about it from another angle. If you were the GM of buffalo, considering the Tavares effect, what measurables would you have taken into consideration in hindsight before signing Moulson and Okposo to the salary and term they did?

If I were the GM of Buffalo I'd probably keep in mind that the UFA market is almost never an efficient use of your money. As I've said before, even a top flight player like Tavares is getting paid more relative to the league's salary structure than his play merits.

With regards to Moulson I think that's probably a bad contract at any price if you don't have a good C to pair him at. Okposo is trickier because the drop off in his production between NYI and the Sabres was pretty minimal in his first year and then who the heck knows what happened with him last year with his mystery illness.

I will say that I think you're effectively dreaming if you think you can get someone who can consistently produce at a significantly higher rate than Okposo did in his first year with the Sabres on the UFA market at a lower price. Especially a bigger guy on the younger side of free agency who has the physicality that some teams prize.

Like I said, the UFA market is not a place I'd look to build my team. I think that was a mistake in Buffalo as they tried to instantly grow from the rubble around Eichel. Would I be super cautious about not giving guys big paydays based on point totals if they had really good linemates? It depends on who I had to match them with and how I saw they fit. I still probably wouldn't have signed either deal but it wouldn't be because I thought I could easily get better for cheaper.

I don't think either guy is a great comp for Nylander who is going to be getting paid as much on future promise(and versatility as a C) as anything he's done in the past but even then I'd be mindful of the guys who read the opposite ways. Guys like Panarin or Marchessault who actually did better once separated from their more famous linemates.

And hey, I'd be open to any reading suggestions you have. I will consider them appropriately in line with the level of respect I have for your opinions. 

 

[Bill_Berg]

Is it me or is it getting haught in here?

 

[OldTimeHockey]

 

[OldTimeHockey]

So, just to change things up a little as this all seems fairly familiar.

Do we envision Nylander as a centre? If so, what does that do to Kadri? Does that become an option? Moving Kadri either to the wing or to another team?

 

[Zee]

So, just to change things up a little as this all seems fairly familiar.

Do we envision Nylander as a centre? If so, what does that do to Kadri? Does that become an option? Moving Kadri either to the wing or to another team?

I guess long term if Nylander can play center he becomes the new Kadri once Naz's deal is done (3 more years after this I believe).  That's a long way off though and so much can change before that point. Let's get Nylander signed first and work from there

 

[Kin]

So, just to change things up a little as this all seems fairly familiar.

Do we envision Nylander as a centre? If so, what does that do to Kadri? Does that become an option? Moving Kadri either to the wing or to another team?

I think at worst he's a hybrid. Someone capable of filling in at either spot if need be.

I'm not sure it affects Kadri too much. He's on such a good deal right now that unless someone blew Dubas' socks off with an offer it's hard to imagine more bang for the buck.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I'm not sure Nylander would ever be a third line center. Feels like he's a top six or bust.

 

[sickbeast]

Lol

Nice rebuttal.  I feel overwhelmed by facts right now.

The truth of the matter is that you are a slightly more knowledgable and somewhat less obnoxious version of Nik the Trik.  You like to toot your own horn.  You rarely if ever post in agreement with *anyone* on here.  I can also see how someone like you would not see the importance of team chemistry.  You're probably the type of person that would disrupt it.

It?s amusing reading your constant posts attacking others and acting holier than thou over and over again.  It really is.

Of course, complain about my complaining about the bull**** instead of the bull**** itself.  Nice.  That would be like telling someone not to complain after you punch them in the face.

You can call it holier-than-thou if you want.  I personally believe in treating others with respect.  That goes for them as a person and also their opinions and POV.  I have no issue with herman and nik the trik disagreeing with me.  I expect it quite frankly.  It's just how they roll.  They don't just do it with me.  Other people also.  My issue is with the whole "LOL" comment.  The mockery.  Want to disagree with me?  Fine.  But that kind of bull**** is completely stupid, yet it's not only condoned on here but your little gang of trolls works together to perpetuate it.  It's like you guys are giving each other virtual high fives and talking down to anyone you don't agree with.  Pathetic.

 

[rdowdall]

Lol

Nice rebuttal.  I feel overwhelmed by facts right now.

The truth of the matter is that you are a slightly more knowledgable and somewhat less obnoxious version of Nik the Trik.  You like to toot your own horn.  You rarely if ever post in agreement with *anyone* on here.  I can also see how someone like you would not see the importance of team chemistry.  You're probably the type of person that would disrupt it.

It?s amusing reading your constant posts attacking others and acting holier than thou over and over again.  It really is.

Of course, complain about my complaining about the bull**** instead of the bull**** itself.  Nice.  That would be like telling someone not to complain after you punch them in the face.

You can call it holier-than-thou if you want.  I personally believe in treating others with respect.  That goes for them as a person and also their opinions and POV.  I have no issue with herman and nik the trik disagreeing with me.  I expect it quite frankly.  It's just how they roll.  They don't just do it with me.  Other people also.  My issue is with the whole "LOL" comment.  The mockery.  Want to disagree with me?  Fine.  But that kind of bull**** is completely stupid, yet it's not only condoned on here but your little gang of trolls works together to perpetuate it.  It's like you guys are giving each other virtual high fives and talking down to anyone you don't agree with.  Pathetic.

What we've got here is failure to communicate. Some people you just can't reach. So you get what we had here last week, which is the way he wants it. Well, he gets it. I don't like it any more than you people.

 

[sickbeast]

Yes, one more time, as originally stated...

Before you then draw an inference as being "likely" when the  only indication is of a commonly held truth regardless. Talented linemates help each other score. Not news. Matthews is a heck of an offensive player, something magnified by playing against three non-playoff teams, again is not news.

Thinking that it's "likely" that Nylander's worth as a player is significantly lessened if he's not playing with Matthews is...entirely unsupported conjecture when nearly every other comp to Nylander that gets used from Pastrnak to Ehlers to Scheifele etc..also had talented linemates. Even with last night's game.

But keep going, Jughead.

See, now here's the discussion I was hoping to have initially, if you had simply dispensed with the sarcasm which turned out to be due to nothing more than your comprehension error. Yes, those three players each have talented linemates, and each signed deals which are reportedly more representative to what Dubas wants to pay on a long term deal. What could be considered is which player is overrepresented in making the rest of the line perform better. There's an interesting opportunity to do this with Nylander out of the lineup. I'll try to find what Nylander's PPG was last year without Matthews vs with, and vice versa, as that would be interesting as well, along with the other 3 contracts.

You know, IMO you're going to look back on your life in 10 years and you're going to think of all that time you wasted arguing with Nik the Trik that you can never have back.  I'm not too sure why you're wasting your time.  Have you ever seen him back down to anyone, even once?  For that matter, have you ever even seen him agree with someone else?  I haven't.  Granted I'm a pretty casual member of the forum here.  But I haven't seen it.  Not during my time here.  It's kind of like banging your head against the wall.  You're only going to hurt your head.

 

[Kin]

I'm not sure Nylander would ever be a third line center. Feels like he's a top six or bust.

He wouldn't be a 3rd line centre in the traditional sense of being a checker or a defensive player, but the Leafs might put together three scoring lines.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I'm not sure Nylander would ever be a third line center. Feels like he's a top six or bust.

He wouldn't be a 3rd line centre in the traditional sense of being a checker or a defensive player, but the Leafs might put together three scoring lines.

They could, and if they did it would be a three-line scoring machine for sure. But then there's a question of ice time. Say Marner is on the top line as a winger, you're going to give him the same ice time as someone on par with say Tyler Ennis? They won't have the wingers to fill the lines equally. So if Nylander plays as much as Matthews, it also means third line wingers are getting as much ice time as top line wingers.

I mean we'll see this year a bit I guess. They say they want to split the top three lines evenly, and maybe they can, but Kadri had 13 min to Tavares' 21 on Sunday.

 

[Kin]

They could, and if they did it would be a three-line scoring machine for sure. But then there's a question of ice time. Say Marner is on the top line as a winger, you're going to give him the same ice time as someone on par with say Tyler Ennis? They won't have the wingers to fill the lines equally. So if Nylander plays as much as Matthews, it also means third line wingers are getting as much ice time as top line wingers.

I mean we'll see this year a bit I guess. They say they want to split the top three lines evenly, and maybe they can, but Kadri had 13 min to Tavares' 21 on Sunday.

Not Ennis, no, but Ennis being in the lineup once Nylander comes back is far from a sure thing. If the Leafs did decide to build out this way it wouldn't be this year(unless they trade Kadri mid-year) so we're looking at some point in the future.

As to the wingers, the one place the Leafs have some credible prospect depth right now is on the wing so I don't know that I see it as a huge issue. Basically, this is a list of guys who are in the mix for wing spots over the next few years:

Marner
Brown
Hyman
Kapanen
Johnsson
Grundstrom
Timashov
Bracco
Korshkov(Lol)

So that's 9 guys. Obviously they all won't make it but you only need 6 to fill out what we're talking about. Between Marner, Brown, Kapanen, Johnsson and Hyman you're already at 5, so you really just need one of the prospects to work before you even have to go outside the organization.

Will all of those guys get equal ice time? No. Having three scoring lines wouldn't necessarily mean you have three equal lines. You could do something like 18-17-16 and then have a defensive 4th line that doesn't get much time outside of penalty killing.