Contracts for the Big-3

[Bill_Berg]

There's a big drop off after Marner there. Maybe not to Ennis' depths, but still a considerable drop-off. But maybe that doesn't matter so much.

I didn't mean the wingers would be bad, we do have a lot of good wingers, but none should take Marner's ice time, or really, Nylander's. So if we say the third line doesn't get equal time as the top two, I suppose the question becomes, what do you prefer? Nylander at center (with decent wingers sure) or Nylander at winger (with excellent centermen) plus 4-5 minutes of ice time a night.

I also agree that should Kadri be gone, Nylander at center becomes much more agreeable. But that's potentially years away.

 

[Kin]

There's a big drop off after Marner there. Maybe not to Ennis' depths, but still a considerable drop-off. But maybe that doesn't matter so much.

I didn't mean the wingers would be bad, we do have a lot of good wingers, but none should take Marner's ice time, or really, Nylander's. So if we say the third line doesn't get equal time as the top two, I suppose the question becomes, what do you prefer? Nylander at center (with decent wingers sure) or Nylander at winger (with excellent centermen) plus 4-5 minutes of ice time a night.

Right, but sort of the flip side to that question is that if Kadri is gone then who, apart from Nylander, is going to be the #3 centre? Right now the Leafs don't have much, if anything, in the way of really interesting prospects at the position.

But aside from that, I agree it's an interesting question but I think an unconventional approach like this has other benefits. For instance, if the top 9 looks something like:

Johnsson-Matthews-Brown
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Grundstrom-Nylander-Kapanen

Sure, you might look at that 3rd line and think they should be getting more ice time(although, again, the Leafs PP set-up means Nylander would still probably be getting more ice time in that situation than Johnsson) but on the other hand, imagine that third line getting 16 minutes a night against the other team's third pairing defensemen or a gassed 1st pairing. You're trading some of the conventional strength of the top two lines for an absolute nightmare of a match-up for opposing coaches.

 

[Bill_Berg]

There's a big drop off after Marner there. Maybe not to Ennis' depths, but still a considerable drop-off. But maybe that doesn't matter so much.

I didn't mean the wingers would be bad, we do have a lot of good wingers, but none should take Marner's ice time, or really, Nylander's. So if we say the third line doesn't get equal time as the top two, I suppose the question becomes, what do you prefer? Nylander at center (with decent wingers sure) or Nylander at winger (with excellent centermen) plus 4-5 minutes of ice time a night.

Right, but sort of the flip side to that question is that if Kadri is gone then who, apart from Nylander, is going to be the #3 centre? Right now the Leafs don't have much, if anything, in the way of really interesting prospects at the position.

But aside from that, I agree it's an interesting question but I think an unconventional approach like this has other benefits. For instance, if the top 9 looks something like:

Johnsson-Matthews-Brown
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Grundstrom-Nylander-Kapanen

Sure, you might look at that 3rd line and think they should be getting more ice time(although, again, the Leafs PP set-up means Nylander would still probably be getting more ice time in that situation than Johnsson) but on the other hand, imagine that third line getting 16 minutes a night against the other team's third pairing defensemen or a gassed 1st pairing. You're trading some of the conventional strength of the top two lines for an absolute nightmare of a match-up for opposing coaches.

By the time Kadri is gone, assuming he's not traded, someone else may fill that role (talking what 3 years from now? so who knows who they'll have).

It could work for sure in theory, no doubt. And I agree it's going to be very interesting to see how it plays out. But if it happens with your lines in 4 years, it means guys like Kapanen and Grundstrom are capable of making an impact. Which means they'll cost more, so that becomes a factor. Can we even afford them? I don't mean they can't, but it will be a topic that we all enjoyably beat to death.

There could be a period of injury or something where Nylander gets significant time at centre. I just don't see it as a regular or planned thing while Kadri is here. And if Kadri lives out his contract and Nylander has been a regular top-line winger in all that time, then how do they drop him to the third line, assuming he is scoring consistently with Matthews during those years.

Are you thinking Kadri could be moved before his contract expires? Cause if that's the case there are two even more interesting questions. Will the Leafs get equal value back for him (I assume it would be for defense)? And do the Leafs need him for his defensive and gritty, if not very orange, play?

 

[Kin]

There could be a period of injury or something where Nylander gets significant time at centre. I just don't see it as a regular or planned thing while Kadri is here. And if Kadri lives out his contract and Nylander has been a regular top-line winger in all that time, then how do they drop him to the third line, assuming he is scoring consistently with Matthews during those years.

Well, I guess the way I'm looking at it is less hierarchical than your typical 1st-2nd-3rd line set-ups and therefore it wouldn't be "dropping" Nylander so much as it would be adjusting his role. I certainly can't speak for Nylander but considering that he pretty clearly wants to get paid like a centre, he may well prefer actually playing it as well.

Are you thinking Kadri could be moved before his contract expires? Cause if that's the case there are two even more interesting questions. Will the Leafs get equal value back for him (I assume it would be for defense)? And do the Leafs need him for his defensive and gritty, if not very orange, play?

Well, I think for sure Kadri could be moved before his contract expires if the Leafs wanted to. Like I said earlier though I think Kadri is such good value for money that the Leafs would really need to be blown away by an offer to make it worth their while.

However, with that said, it may get to a point where the Leafs struggle with advancing in the playoffs without improvements on the back end and with Tavares, Matthews, Nylander, Kadri and Marner all in the fold and getting paid they need to do something to bring in a solid defender in which case Kadri is a pretty good trade chip.

To answer your two questions in that scenario, I think the Leafs can get good value for him if they make sure they don't put off moving him until they're effectively forced to(which, as we saw with Karlsson, is not a good time to make a trade) and you'd hope that his gritty defensive work would be largely replaced by the defenseman you're trading him for.

 

[Bill_Berg]

There could be a period of injury or something where Nylander gets significant time at centre. I just don't see it as a regular or planned thing while Kadri is here. And if Kadri lives out his contract and Nylander has been a regular top-line winger in all that time, then how do they drop him to the third line, assuming he is scoring consistently with Matthews during those years.

Well, I guess the way I'm looking at it is less hierarchical than your typical 1st-2nd-3rd line set-ups and therefore it wouldn't be "dropping" Nylander so much as it would be adjusting his role. I certainly can't speak for Nylander but considering that he pretty clearly wants to get paid like a centre, he may well prefer actually playing it as well.

I just don't know if not having a hierarchy is attainable. Mostly because of the limitation of ice time.

And the Leafs may get stuck paying for a centre that they play on the wing.

 

[freer]

lets just trade him for a defense man (Nylander) end the debate. He IMO will never be worth 8mil a year and the first three games have shown that we need defence.

Just my opinion.

 

[louisstamos]

lets just trade him for a defense man (Nylander) end the debate. He IMO will never be worth 8mil a year and the first three games have shown that we need defence.

Just my opinion.

The Leafs do need defense, but I don't think they need to or should trade Nylander to do so.  San Jose got Erik freakin' Karlsson for a couple picks and spare parts.  It's all about circumstance.  The last thing the Leafs should do is trade a star forward for a middling defenseman (Hall for Larsson anyone?).

I think we've had this debate before, but what would be the equivalent of a "Nylander" level player on defense anyways?  Ryan Ellis?  Sam Girard?  John Klingberg?

 

[Kin]

I just don't know if not having a hierarchy is attainable. Mostly because of the limitation of ice time.

There's no question that this would require a degree of buy-in from the players but I think that players can get over their egos pretty quick if A) they're all signed long term so it doesn't affect their money and B) the team's winning.

And as I was saying, I think because of PP time you'd still have a hierarchy of ice time, it would just be by player instead of by line.

 

[iwas11in67]

lets just trade him for a defense man (Nylander) end the debate. He IMO will never be worth 8mil a year and the first three games have shown that we need defence.

Just my opinion.

The Leafs do need defense, but I don't think they need to or should trade Nylander to do so.  San Jose got Erik freakin' Karlsson for a couple picks and spare parts.  It's all about circumstance.  The last thing the Leafs should do is trade a star forward for a middling defenseman (Hall for Larsson anyone?).

I think we've had this debate before, but what would be the equivalent of a "Nylander" level player on defense anyways?  Ryan Ellis?  Sam Girard?  John Klingberg?

Would you trade Nylander (and possibly Gardner) for PK Subban?

 

[louisstamos]

Would you trade Nylander (and possibly Gardner) for PK Subban?

Straight up?  I had to think about it - caveats about his age aside (he's 29 already...where does time go?), he still has this year +3 on his contract.  So, yeah, I would.  Nylander and Gardiner, not likely, though.

The question is though, a) does Nashville want to trade him? (my guess is no) and b) would they accept Nylander or Nylander+ in a trade? (I'd say no one first, maybe on the 2nd).

Good asset management is gaining assets with as little cost as possible.  If Nashville doesn't want to trade Subban, it would take a ransom to get him out of there.  Might help the defense, but you're detracting from another area to improve another.  Overall, it's not really an improvement.  The idea is to go after good players that teams WANT to trade, because they price is typically lower.  Like the Erik Karlsson deal, or the Phil Kessel deal, or going all the way back to the Joe Thornton deal.

If the Leafs view themselves as contenders, then it might be the time to consider acquiring an asset with their 1st round pick for next year.  But I don't think they should be trading Nylander, a piece who can help them win now.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I just don't know if not having a hierarchy is attainable. Mostly because of the limitation of ice time.

There's no question that this would require a degree of buy-in from the players but I think that players can get over their egos pretty quick if A) they're all signed long term so it doesn't affect their money and B) the team's winning.

And as I was saying, I think because of PP time you'd still have a hierarchy of ice time, it would just be by player instead of by line.

Winning cures everything. Money is good too.

Even with PP time, Nylander as centre wouldn't see the ice time he could as a winger. Although it might do a lot to get his points on par. And maybe he doesn't care about ice time. I get mixed messages about whether or not players actually care. I suppose it varies.

 

[Zee]

The whole Nylander / Kadri thing comes down to the cap again.  Right now Kadri is underpaid for what he brings, Leafs have him on a great contract at $4.5M for the next 4 seasons (including this one).  If he keeps producing like this, he'll be looking for a big raise when the contract is up, and depending on where the cap is, and where the big 3 are, Leafs might not want to put that money into Naz when he's gonna be over 30 years old.  If Nylander gets his 6 or 7 year deal now on a decent number, and he can play center down the road, he could be the Kadri replacement. 

 

[Kin]

Even with PP time, Nylander as centre wouldn't see the ice time he could as a winger. Although it might do a lot to get his points on par. And maybe he doesn't care about ice time. I get mixed messages about whether or not players actually care. I suppose it varies.

Well, there's no question it would involve a very different way of looking at things. Nylander might only get, say, 17 minutes of ice time a night in this set-up whereas with a traditional top line role he might get 19 or 20 but the argument for it might be that 17 minutes a night leaves everyone fresher for the playoffs. Likewise, with Kadri as a #3 C it's not really like the team has a traditional structure anyway.

 

[groundskeeper willie]

lets just trade him for a defense man (Nylander) end the debate. He IMO will never be worth 8mil a year and the first three games have shown that we need defence.

Just my opinion.

The Leafs do need defense, but I don't think they need to or should trade Nylander to do so.  San Jose got Erik freakin' Karlsson for a couple picks and spare parts.  It's all about circumstance.  The last thing the Leafs should do is trade a star forward for a middling defenseman (Hall for Larsson anyone?).

I think we've had this debate before, but what would be the equivalent of a "Nylander" level player on defense anyways?  Ryan Ellis?  Sam Girard?  John Klingberg?

Winnipeg needs a second line centre and have had tough negotiations with Trouba.

I think trading Nylander would be a mistake and I'm not saying I'd want to make a trade one for one but it seems like a better option than some names mentioned.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Winnipeg needs a second line centre and have had tough negotiations with Trouba.

Is Winnipeg a team that can afford to give Nylander $8mil though?

 

[Guilt Trip]

Winnipeg needs a second line centre and have had tough negotiations with Trouba.

Is Winnipeg a team that can afford to give Nylander $8mil though?

Any team can afford but they might need to subtract. Trouba, Laine, Kyle Connor, Tyler Myers are all up next year.. What's Laine getting if he puts up 40 again? 9-10 million???

 

[disco]

During the 2nd intermission roundtable Friedman had a good presentation of various recent cup-winners and their top-4 cap players with the % of the cap they took up. Most of them took up 40-45% of their teams cap. (Washington - Ovechkin/Backstrom/Kuznetzov/Carlson, Pittsburgh - Crosby/Malkin/Letang/Kessel, Chicago - Toews/Kane/Keith/Seabrook, etc.)

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/headlines-bad-news-florida-nylander-holding-firm/

The Leafs to be around that would be something like:
Matthews $12-million
Tavares $11-million
Marner $8.5-million
Nylander $7-million
(around 44%)

 

[groundskeeper willie]

Winnipeg needs a second line centre and have had tough negotiations with Trouba.

Is Winnipeg a team that can afford to give Nylander $8mil though?

I'm not sure, but Trouba is going to be making 6.5 or so next year so there's not going to be a huge difference between the two.

They are probably facing a similar dilemma this summer with Myers as the Leafs are with Gardiner.

Sent from my PH-1 using Tapatalk

 

[Guilt Trip]

During the 2nd intermission roundtable Friedman had a good presentation of various recent cup-winners and their top-4 cap players with the % of the cap they took up. Most of them took up 40-45% of their teams cap. (Washington - Ovechkin/Backstrom/Kuznetzov/Carlson, Pittsburgh - Crosby/Malkin/Letang/Kessel, Chicago - Toews/Kane/Keith/Seabrook, etc.)

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/headlines-bad-news-florida-nylander-holding-firm/

The Leafs to be around that would be something like:
Matthews $12-million
Tavares $11-million
Marner $8.5-million
Nylander $7-million
(around 44%)

If Marner continues to play the way he has and I'm sure the Leafs already have an idea of what it'll cost to keep him, you're not getting him for 8.5, which means Nylander's price drops even more. If he wants to play here with the other 3, he has to drop his ask, or he'll be gone. There simply isn't the cap space for him.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

Winnipeg needs a second line centre and have had tough negotiations with Trouba.

Is Winnipeg a team that can afford to give Nylander $8mil though?

Any team can afford but they might need to subtract. Trouba, Laine, Kyle Connor, Tyler Myers are all up next year.. What's Laine getting if he puts up 40 again? 9-10 million???

I believe Trouba is on a 1 year $5.5M arbitrated deal because his demand on anything long term was $8M+. I suspect in the end he'll get his $8M+ rather than getting traded too.

The few young, top end RHD (e.g Trouba, Rastolainen) which would make it worth trading are not likely to be traded. Otherwise, Hall for Larsson wouldn't have happened (even accounting for Chiarelli and that it shouldn't have happened anyway, it demonstrates the reluctance of teams to trade those players).