Contracts for the Big-3

[princedpw]

I?ve wondered about a mediator or arbitrator too.  It seems that rational minds would conclude that the two parties disagree on the contract value and yet nevertheless both sides benefit if they come to some agreement. Maybe a 3rd party could help.  Of course, the problem would come in how you go about choosing a neutral 3rd party.

 

[herman]

There are only a couple of things that we know for sure:

1.  Nylander doesn't like the current Leafs offer.
2.  The Leafs don't like the current Nylander ask.

Given this, I don't think you can assign any blame or responsibility for the lack of a deal to either party without knowing a lot more about the circumstances.  And really, given this is a negotiation, Nylander's camp is trying to get the most he can, and the Leafs are trying to pay the least they can. 

Both sides have done a great job of keeping this negotiation under wraps, so I think that any suggestion around here that one party is being unfair is a little silly given that I haven't read any evidence of any impropriety or manipulation.

This

Just to be fair I was only posting to push the other side because I constantly see people blaming Nylander?s agent/his Dad.  There are two parties here with a disagreement.  I think the job of a GM is to find a way around those issues but no I don?t blame a Dubas or Nylander here.

This too. Anyone trying to ascribe blame is entitled to that view but is wrong.

 

[sickbeast]

Guys, just answer me this question.  Why on earth would Nylander not take say $7 million over 8 years before the season started, but then now suddenly accept it after he has already sacrificed ~$1 million in lost salary?  It makes absolutely no sense.

I can see the Leafs' motivation because it gives them future cap space.  But for Nylander it's a real head scratcher.

In this hypothetical situation, Nylander may have then come to the conclusion that he couldn't get a better deal than that done, even after trying really hard and missing part of the season, so he decided to sign that contract.

Well I could see the potential payoff for Nylander if, say, he sacrifices the $1 million in lost salary now so that he can gain an additional million on his contract, per year.  That would pay off nicely for him.  But if he sits out for the entire season he will never get that money back.  And rightly or wrongly it will affect his reputation, permanently.

This is really high stakes for both sides and it's going to be fascinating to see how it all plays out.  I have a feeling that Nylander is willing to risk the $1-2 million by sitting out until December 1st, but I doubt he wants to sit out the entire season.  I also doubt the Leafs have any desire to lose a player of Nylander's caliber.  They say that he is a franchise level player that the Leafs got with the 8th overall pick.  This is extremely rare.  Nylander is a top 3 pick level player.  A notch below Auston Matthews.  You don't let guys like that walk away.  I clearly don't know what Nylander is like in person but whenever the camera is on him he has a smile on his face and he clearly loves playing the game.  Again this is my opinion from afar but he looks like a fun guy to have on the team.  I don't think this thing is personal at all.  You look at a guy like Evander Kane and you can just tell something is awry (he has another allegation/accuser just FYI).  Nylander doesn't seem like that at all.  I really hope the two sides can work this out.

 

[sickbeast]

And just like that there are credible rumors of a trade:

https://www.thefourthperiod.com/nov-2018/kings-hurricanes-hot-for-nylander/

 

[Kin]

Something I can't help but wonder, and I don't think this falls into the "blame" category here, is if there isn't something to the idea that Dubas being a clever fellow isn't trying to import something of what we're seeing in Baseball when it comes to negotiations where he's not altogether interested in a deal where everyone feels as good as they can about it but rather where he's going to do whatever he thinks is in the best interests of the club going forward.

I've referenced it before but in Baseball if a team can pay a guy much less than market, they do. If they can manipulate his service time, they do. Players don't love it but it's now generally assumed to be SOP. In hockey we've seen almost 15 years now of teams effectively giving players what they want in 95% of cases so as to avoid hurt feelings and, above all else, mitigate the risk of losing players. As such we've seen a pretty constant and steady inflation of player salaries.

Maybe Dubas is trying to buck that trend. Maybe he's inclined to take things to the wire even for minimal returns so long as they're even incrementally better than what he could get going the traditional route. That isn't to say he'll be successful or even that he'll always make the right call about the cost/benefit analysis in a particular situation but I think there's a fair argument to be made that doing what everyone else does isn't necessarily the best practice for a team that will be facing cap issues.

 

[Bates]

Something I can't help but wonder, and I don't think this falls into the "blame" category here, is if there isn't something to the idea that Dubas being a clever fellow isn't trying to import something of what we're seeing in Baseball when it comes to negotiations where he's not altogether interested in a deal where everyone feels as good as they can about it but rather where he's going to do whatever he thinks is in the best interests of the club going forward.

I've referenced it before but in Baseball if a team can pay a guy much less than market, they do. If they can manipulate his service time, they do. Players don't love it but it's now generally assumed to be SOP. In hockey we've seen almost 15 years now of teams effectively giving players what they want in 95% of cases so as to avoid hurt feelings and, above all else, mitigate the risk of losing players. As such we've seen a pretty constant and steady inflation of player salaries.

Maybe Dubas is trying to buck that trend. Maybe he's inclined to take things to the wire even for minimal returns so long as they're even incrementally better than what he could get going the traditional route. That isn't to say he'll be successful or even that he'll always make the right call about the cost/benefit analysis in a particular situation but I think there's a fair argument to be made that doing what everyone else does isn't necessarily the best practice for a team that will be facing cap issues.

It has always shocked me that NHL teams gave RFA's so much on their second contract? It's one if the rare times you can really get performance for controlled cost.

 

[sickbeast]

Something I can't help but wonder, and I don't think this falls into the "blame" category here, is if there isn't something to the idea that Dubas being a clever fellow isn't trying to import something of what we're seeing in Baseball when it comes to negotiations where he's not altogether interested in a deal where everyone feels as good as they can about it but rather where he's going to do whatever he thinks is in the best interests of the club going forward.

I've referenced it before but in Baseball if a team can pay a guy much less than market, they do. If they can manipulate his service time, they do. Players don't love it but it's now generally assumed to be SOP. In hockey we've seen almost 15 years now of teams effectively giving players what they want in 95% of cases so as to avoid hurt feelings and, above all else, mitigate the risk of losing players. As such we've seen a pretty constant and steady inflation of player salaries.

Maybe Dubas is trying to buck that trend. Maybe he's inclined to take things to the wire even for minimal returns so long as they're even incrementally better than what he could get going the traditional route. That isn't to say he'll be successful or even that he'll always make the right call about the cost/benefit analysis in a particular situation but I think there's a fair argument to be made that doing what everyone else does isn't necessarily the best practice for a team that will be facing cap issues.

I'm honestly wondering if Dubas wanted to see how the team would perform without Nylander in the lineup.  Now that he has seen the results perhaps he is ready to make his decision.  I will say that as much as I like Nylander, he has been *invisible* in the playoffs and the Leafs couldn't get the puck out of their own zone against Boston.  We need defense.  Nylander's value is diluted in Toronto where we have so many talented forwards.  If he goes almost anywhere else he will be "the man".  Perhaps that is what he wants also.  So it would be win-win in a way if they can trade him.  I just can't for the life of me see the Leafs getting fair value out of a trade for Nylander.  At best they will get a 75% return.  And I am by no means blown away by the players mentioned in the article I posted above.

 

[Frank E]

Something I can't help but wonder, and I don't think this falls into the "blame" category here, is if there isn't something to the idea that Dubas being a clever fellow isn't trying to import something of what we're seeing in Baseball when it comes to negotiations where he's not altogether interested in a deal where everyone feels as good as they can about it but rather where he's going to do whatever he thinks is in the best interests of the club going forward.

I've referenced it before but in Baseball if a team can pay a guy much less than market, they do. If they can manipulate his service time, they do. Players don't love it but it's now generally assumed to be SOP. In hockey we've seen almost 15 years now of teams effectively giving players what they want in 95% of cases so as to avoid hurt feelings and, above all else, mitigate the risk of losing players. As such we've seen a pretty constant and steady inflation of player salaries.

Maybe Dubas is trying to buck that trend. Maybe he's inclined to take things to the wire even for minimal returns so long as they're even incrementally better than what he could get going the traditional route. That isn't to say he'll be successful or even that he'll always make the right call about the cost/benefit analysis in a particular situation but I think there's a fair argument to be made that doing what everyone else does isn't necessarily the best practice for a team that will be facing cap issues.

Could be...but what would be the long-term result of this sort of SOP? 

Like, the teams would still spend to the cap, so really you're just redistributing the ~$80m on your roster.  Theoretically, I guess UFA deals would have more AAV.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

With the Tavares signing, I think the writing was on the wall for Nylander. 

 

[Zee]

"we can and we will" though?

 

[sickbeast]

"we can and we will" though?

He can't and he won't.  :-X

 

[Kin]

Could be...but what would be the long-term result of this sort of SOP? 

Like, the teams would still spend to the cap, so really you're just redistributing the ~$80m on your roster.  Theoretically, I guess UFA deals would have more AAV.

My thinking is that what would happen is that teams that find themselves in Chicago's position from a while back wouldn't be forced to give away guys when they couldn't afford their 2nd deals. For all the Matthews/Marner talk there's also going to be Kapanen and Dermott coming up, in theory some good Marlies behind them, etc.

 

[sickbeast]

Any type of trade is going to hinge on the new team making a deal with Nylander in terms of a contract.  They are saying that his agent is talking to Carolina right now.  My thoughts are, why would Carolina offer him something Toronto wouldn't?  Really the only main difference would be the lower taxes in the USA, IMO.  Let's just say for example that the Leafs offered Nylander $7 million and Carolina gives him $7.5 milllion.  Is it really worth Nylander going through all this for the sake of an additional $500,000/year and some savings on his taxes?

I'm wondering if the Toronto market is too much pressure for him.  Perhaps he doesn't like the spotlight or all the media attention and hype surrounding the team.

We'll see how this all plays out.  It doesn't make any sense to me (yet).

 

[Kin]

My thoughts are, why would Carolina offer him something Toronto wouldn't? 

They might value him differently.

 

[Bates]

Any type of trade is going to hinge on the new team making a deal with Nylander in terms of a contract.  They are saying that his agent is talking to Carolina right now.  My thoughts are, why would Carolina offer him something Toronto wouldn't?  Really the only main difference would be the lower taxes in the USA, IMO.  Let's just say for example that the Leafs offered Nylander $7 million and Carolina gives him $7.5 milllion.  Is it really worth Nylander going through all this for the sake of an additional $500,000/year and some savings on his taxes?

I'm wondering if the Toronto market is too much pressure for him.  Perhaps he doesn't like the spotlight or all the media attention and hype surrounding the team.

We'll see how this all plays out.  It doesn't make any sense to me (yet).

Maybe he hates coach and would really prefer to play center.

 

[sickbeast]

My thoughts are, why would Carolina offer him something Toronto wouldn't? 

They might value him differently.

That much though?  On an elite asset such as Nylander?

There is a good chance that Carolina won't be able to reach a deal with Nylander in terms of a contract.  This could simply be Dubas letting this situation play out so that Nylander sees and knows just how much other teams value him.  This could in fact lead to Nylander remaining in Toronto.  It depends on how crazy Carolina gets in terms of the contract they are willing to offer him.  It could go the other way also.  If they offer him a huge contract Nylander won't settle for anything less in Toronto.  And it will probably wind up with him getting traded.

 

[Kin]

That much though?  On an elite asset such as Nylander?

Sure. As I've gone through in this thread there are ways to look at Nylander and come to all sorts of conclusions as to his place in the salary structure. Carolina might think he's worth what he's asking.

 

[sickbeast]

I just checked and the taxes on a $7 million income in Ontario are $3.7 million versus $3.3 million in Carolina.  A $400,000 difference.  But I hear the players pay different taxes for away games.  So the difference is really closer to $200,000.

It kind of blows my mind just how much these athletes pay in taxes.  Not that I feel sorry for them.  It's just a lot.

 

[Joe S.]

Correct me if I?m wrong but if he signs before dec 1st he has nothing to lose because the leafs can give him a signing bonus that would essentially cover any lost salary up to this point?

 

[Kin]

Correct me if I?m wrong but if he signs before dec 1st he has nothing to lose because the leafs can give him a signing bonus that would essentially cover any lost salary up to this point?

I believe that's the case.