Coronavirus

[Chris]

*Edit: Also just to clarify, I agree people shouldn't "run" to hospitals and should call and see if they can get tested offsite, but I don't think a 3% kill rate is "mass hysteria caused by the media." This is entirely on individuals who should do their damn due diligence and call their GP and ask what they should do and if it makes sense to get tested, and hopefully the test is offsite from a hospital.

If that turns out to be the true mortality rate, then, no, it's not hysteria at all - not with how easy it can spread. The problem is we may not know the true mortality rate for some time - if ever - as a significant number of people who may have contracted the virus will/were never be tested. For a lot of the population, COVID-19 can present similar to a normal cold. There could be thousands of unreported cases out there, which would significantly drive down the mortality rate.

There's lots we really don't know. There were reports coming out of Wuhan back in February that huge numbers of people had died. I saw videos with bodies laying in the streets. There were videos from hospitals with patients lined up through the corridors barely able to breath, with dead bodies on the floor, some in body bags. Reports that crematoriums were unable to keep up. Many think the true death toll in Wuhan was at least 10x what was reported, maybe even more than that. China shut down all those reports by "disappearing" people who were sending out that info. Of course, the true number of minor or asymptomatic cases might be much higher than we think.

I believe South Korea will give us the best info about the overall severity of the virus. They've done vast amounts of testing and presumably identified many more cases, covering a broad range of severity, compared to other countries. Right now their death rate looks very low but it will probably creep up since the disease course is often several weeks. They've identified 7500 case but only about 250 are listed as "recovered" versus 58 deaths. We'll see where that goes.

This is also highly dependant on public policy and social custom and a number of variables. How else do you explain Italy's high rate and Korea's low one? I don't think you can use one country in isolation in analysing this.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/

Yeah, I don't know. Italy has an older population and from the stats I've seen, the deaths there so far are very heavily skewed to those greater than 70 (and especially 80). But there are reports coming out now that younger people, in their 40s, are starting to show up in the hospitals with ARDS. So maybe the outbreak there has been going on for longer and the oldest people were getting taken out first and it will now move into younger age groups. If the outbreak started going later in S Korea we might soon see a rapid increase in their death rate. Only time will tell.

It's really weird living through this and watching it spread out through the world. Kind of like seeing a storm on the horizon heading your way, you don't know how bad it's going to be and there's not much you can do about it.

 

[Bender]

*Edit: Also just to clarify, I agree people shouldn't "run" to hospitals and should call and see if they can get tested offsite, but I don't think a 3% kill rate is "mass hysteria caused by the media." This is entirely on individuals who should do their damn due diligence and call their GP and ask what they should do and if it makes sense to get tested, and hopefully the test is offsite from a hospital.

If that turns out to be the true mortality rate, then, no, it's not hysteria at all - not with how easy it can spread. The problem is we may not know the true mortality rate for some time - if ever - as a significant number of people who may have contracted the virus will/were never be tested. For a lot of the population, COVID-19 can present similar to a normal cold. There could be thousands of unreported cases out there, which would significantly drive down the mortality rate.

There's lots we really don't know. There were reports coming out of Wuhan back in February that huge numbers of people had died. I saw videos with bodies laying in the streets. There were videos from hospitals with patients lined up through the corridors barely able to breath, with dead bodies on the floor, some in body bags. Reports that crematoriums were unable to keep up. Many think the true death toll in Wuhan was at least 10x what was reported, maybe even more than that. China shut down all those reports by "disappearing" people who were sending out that info. Of course, the true number of minor or asymptomatic cases might be much higher than we think.

I believe South Korea will give us the best info about the overall severity of the virus. They've done vast amounts of testing and presumably identified many more cases, covering a broad range of severity, compared to other countries. Right now their death rate looks very low but it will probably creep up since the disease course is often several weeks. They've identified 7500 case but only about 250 are listed as "recovered" versus 58 deaths. We'll see where that goes.

This is also highly dependant on public policy and social custom and a number of variables. How else do you explain Italy's high rate and Korea's low one? I don't think you can use one country in isolation in analysing this.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/

Yeah, I don't know. Italy has an older population and from the stats I've seen, the deaths there so far are very heavily skewed to those greater than 70 (and especially 80). But there are reports coming out now that younger people, in their 40s, are starting to show up in the hospitals with ARDS. So maybe the outbreak there has been going on for longer and the oldest people were getting taken out first and it will now move into younger age groups. If the outbreak started going later in S Korea we might soon see a rapid increase in their death rate. Only time will tell.

It's really weird living through this and watching it spread out through the world. Kind of like seeing a storm on the horizon heading your way, you don't know how bad it's going to be and there's not much you can do about it.

I know. All I ask is that people who are symptomatic, for the love of God, call their GP, get tested and stay home if sick. That's all I ask.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Some data gathered that shows who really is at risk with this Coronavirus, the risk factors associated with the potential for being infected, and morbidity rates:

?Older age, showing signs of sepsis on admission, underlying diseases like high blood pressure and diabetes, and the prolonged use of non-invasive ventilation were important factors in the deaths of these patients,? said study author Dr Zhibo Liu.
?Poorer outcomes in older people may be due, in part, to the age-related weakening of the immune system and increased inflammation that could promote viral replication and more prolonged responses to inflammation, causing lasting damage to the heart, brain, and other organs.?

One expert added ?increased age? is a common risk factor for ?nearly all infections?.

Medical records, treatment data and laboratory results were compared between the survivors of the infection and the deceased.
Using mathematical models, the scientists examined risk factors associated with dying of the infection.

Overall, just under half (48%) of the patients had an underlying condition.

Blood pressure was the most common, making up 30% of the co-morbidities, followed by diabetes at 19%.

The survivors were on average 52 years old, compared to 69 among the deceased.

More here:
https://ca.style.yahoo.com/coronavirus-covid19-risk-factors-death-111552483.html




Many age groups affected in various ways ranging from 30-80:

The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

 

[Highlander]

*Edit: Also just to clarify, I agree people shouldn't "run" to hospitals and should call and see if they can get tested offsite, but I don't think a 3% kill rate is "mass hysteria caused by the media." This is entirely on individuals who should do their damn due diligence and call their GP and ask what they should do and if it makes sense to get tested, and hopefully the test is offsite from a hospital.

If that turns out to be the true mortality rate, then, no, it's not hysteria at all - not with how easy it can spread. The problem is we may not know the true mortality rate for some time - if ever - as a significant number of people who may have contracted the virus will/were never be tested. For a lot of the population, COVID-19 can present similar to a normal cold. There could be thousands of unreported cases out there, which would significantly drive down the mortality rate.

There's lots we really don't know. There were reports coming out of Wuhan back in February that huge numbers of people had died. I saw videos with bodies laying in the streets. There were videos from hospitals with patients lined up through the corridors barely able to breath, with dead bodies on the floor, some in body bags. Reports that crematoriums were unable to keep up. Many think the true death toll in Wuhan was at least 10x what was reported, maybe even more than that. China shut down all those reports by "disappearing" people who were sending out that info. Of course, the true number of minor or asymptomatic cases might be much higher than we think.

I believe South Korea will give us the best info about the overall severity of the virus. They've done vast amounts of testing and presumably identified many more cases, covering a broad range of severity, compared to other countries. Right now their death rate looks very low but it will probably creep up since the disease course is often several weeks. They've identified 7500 case but only about 250 are listed as "recovered" versus 58 deaths. We'll see where that goes.

This is also highly dependant on public policy and social custom and a number of variables. How else do you explain Italy's high rate and Korea's low one? I don't think you can use one country in isolation in analysing this.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/

Supposedly the virus is doing much better in cold climates than warm ones. I don't know why but my wife has been immersed in this stuff and she has heard this more than once.

 

[Bender]

*Edit: Also just to clarify, I agree people shouldn't "run" to hospitals and should call and see if they can get tested offsite, but I don't think a 3% kill rate is "mass hysteria caused by the media." This is entirely on individuals who should do their damn due diligence and call their GP and ask what they should do and if it makes sense to get tested, and hopefully the test is offsite from a hospital.

If that turns out to be the true mortality rate, then, no, it's not hysteria at all - not with how easy it can spread. The problem is we may not know the true mortality rate for some time - if ever - as a significant number of people who may have contracted the virus will/were never be tested. For a lot of the population, COVID-19 can present similar to a normal cold. There could be thousands of unreported cases out there, which would significantly drive down the mortality rate.

There's lots we really don't know. There were reports coming out of Wuhan back in February that huge numbers of people had died. I saw videos with bodies laying in the streets. There were videos from hospitals with patients lined up through the corridors barely able to breath, with dead bodies on the floor, some in body bags. Reports that crematoriums were unable to keep up. Many think the true death toll in Wuhan was at least 10x what was reported, maybe even more than that. China shut down all those reports by "disappearing" people who were sending out that info. Of course, the true number of minor or asymptomatic cases might be much higher than we think.

I believe South Korea will give us the best info about the overall severity of the virus. They've done vast amounts of testing and presumably identified many more cases, covering a broad range of severity, compared to other countries. Right now their death rate looks very low but it will probably creep up since the disease course is often several weeks. They've identified 7500 case but only about 250 are listed as "recovered" versus 58 deaths. We'll see where that goes.

This is also highly dependant on public policy and social custom and a number of variables. How else do you explain Italy's high rate and Korea's low one? I don't think you can use one country in isolation in analysing this.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/

Supposedly the virus is doing much better in cold climates than warm ones. I don't know why but my wife has been immersed in this stuff and she has heard this more than once.

Wuhan & Tehran aren't cold though. I don't know how we have enough information to extrapolate that yet.

 

[bustaheims]

Wuhan & Tehran aren't cold though. I don't know how we have enough information to extrapolate that yet.

Neither is most of Italy!

 

[Highlander]

Definitely something I would like to hear more about.

 

[Kin]

Wuhan & Tehran aren't cold though. I don't know how we have enough information to extrapolate that yet.

Neither is most of Italy!

It's like you guys are doubting that thing that someone heard.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://time.com/5790880/coronavirus-warm-weather-summer/

Dr. Nancy Messionnier of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warned against assuming the number of cases will slow as the weather warms. ?I think it?s premature to assume that,? she said during a call with reporters on Feb. 12. ?We haven?t been through even a single year with this pathogen.?

Other health experts that TIME spoke to agree that it?s too early to say if warmer weather will impact the virus?s spread. McGraw, of Penn State University, says there will likely be many factors that determine when and how the outbreak ends. ?Rate of virus spread, effectiveness of infection control practices, weather and human immunity will likely all play a role in determining its future,? she says.

You probably don't need many guesses to know who the loudest proponent of the idea that warm weather will help is.

 

[L K]

There is no data to support that warm weather will mitigate the disease.  It's just taking what over conventional colder weather viruses have done and hoping that we will see a similar outcome once spring comes around.  There isn't any convincing evidence that there is a meaningful change in virulence in warm vs. cooler climates at this time.

 

[Stebro]

Here in Sweden the virus is spreading faster in our two biggest cities. Today the first person died from the virus. A couple of new actions were taken today gatherings over 500 people are not recommended. Also in Sweden you usually pay for the first day off work if you are sick, but the state is taking the entire cost for that day now. In Stockholm it's been clearly stated that you are absolutely not allowed to send kids to school with any type of illness, even if it's minor. Hand sanitizers are sold out everywhere.

 

[Chris]

One thing to keep in mind regarding seasonality - for seasonal influenza, by the time spring and warmer weather arrive, the virus has already burned through a lot of the population. So there is a herd immunity component that helps reduce transmission. For this virus, spread is essentially just getting going and no one has any immunity. We can hope for warmer weather to reduce disease spread but better not count on it.

 

[princedpw]

Here is a pretty scary chart.  In a nutshell, it says

And this chart shows that Germany, France, UK, US will all become Italy shortly -- the infections in those countries just spread a little later than than they did to Italy.  The US is 11.5 days behind.

https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237119688578138112?fbclid=IwAR054OhXXGLW7ecx4_1kPmhh2uNiin5mAz4ssiR43rX4dM2B32PICjX86M0

Every event that can be cancelled should be cancelled.  Stay home preemptively if you can.

 

[Arn]

A player in my local football (soccer) team has been confirmed as having the virus. The club had cancelled all training for all squads from the senior squad down to the under 11s. This weeks match (on Saturday) has been postponed as the rest of the squad is having to isolate and be tested.

Likely the next match the following Friday will also be off. (Average crowds of about 4000 but also quite a lot of older folk in the supporters demographic)

First deaths due to the virus also recorded in Ireland today.

Very disappointed to see the Prime Minuster coming out and saying things like ?we should just take it on the chin and let it burn through quickly? when that would very clearly rapidly overwhelm our already stretched health service but that seems to be where we?re at with our leaders at the minute unfortunately.

 

[Chris]

Very disappointed to see the Prime Minuster coming out and saying things like ?we should just take it on the chin and let it burn through quickly? when that would very clearly rapidly overwhelm our already stretched health service but that seems to be where we?re at with our leaders at the minute unfortunately.

It's a great idea (sarcasm) as long as you don't wind up with pneumonia requiring intense medical care when the hospital system is overwhelmed. And don't even think about having another kind of health emergency such as a heart attack, stroke, etc.

Unfortunately that seems to be the direction the US is headed. Lackadaisical response, minimal testing, denial. Kind of what I expected, though I hoped I would be wrong.

 

[Highlander]

Wuhan & Tehran aren't cold though. I don't know how we have enough information to extrapolate that yet.

Neither is most of Italy!

Again not advocating anything, I should not have posted what my wife had read.  However Rome and Tehran have very similar climates, low 40 F at night into the low 50's during the day. Wuhan is a bit warmer at this point with a balmy 63F today.
It is going to be interesting to see how this all plays out in Tropical areas. 

 

[Highlander]

Wuhan & Tehran aren't cold though. I don't know how we have enough information to extrapolate that yet.

Neither is most of Italy!

Again not advocating anything, I should not have posted what my wife had read.  However Rome and Tehran have very similar climates, low 40 F at night into the low 50's during the day. Wuhan is a bit warmer at this point with a balmy 63F today.
It is going to be interesting to see how this all plays out in Tropical areas.

Looks like the U.K is going into a complete lockdown like Italy.

 

[Arn]

Looks like the U.K is going into a complete lockdown like Italy.

Source? Cos I live here and that?s definitely not what?s happening at the minute. (Although it probably should be)

Edit: there?s a meeting of the government task force COBRA tomorrow to decide whether to move from contain to delay phase. That only allows for ?social distancing? (school closures, working from home). It doesn?t mean there will necessarily be any...

 

[Arn]

Very disappointed to see the Prime Minuster coming out and saying things like ?we should just take it on the chin and let it burn through quickly? when that would very clearly rapidly overwhelm our already stretched health service but that seems to be where we?re at with our leaders at the minute unfortunately.

It's a great idea (sarcasm) as long as you don't wind up with pneumonia requiring intense medical care when the hospital system is overwhelmed. And don't even think about having another kind of health emergency such as a heart attack, stroke, etc.

Unfortunately that seems to be the direction the US is headed. Lackadaisical response, minimal testing, denial. Kind of what I expected, though I hoped I would be wrong.

Without wanting to get too political on a thread about a serious illness, it will be interesting to see if the similar (lack of) reaction from the leadership of the two countries could lead to a downfall of that leadership.

I suspect that may depend on how the numbers of illnesses and deaths play out over the next couple of months

 

[Stebro]

Some of the western countries share one problem, which is very few hospital beds per capita. Sweden only have 2,22/capita, Canada and The UK have about 2,5/capita, compared to for example Japan that have over 13/capita. Several experts here in Sweden says that if we get a lot of serious cases, we wont be able to handle it well.