Fairly wide consensus was they were a bubble team to start the season. They're still roughly that now. They're probably going to have a tough 3 games and then pick up some points in the easier 4 games after.
Devils @ Leafs - Nov. 8th, 7:00pm - TSN4
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rjd
Well-known member
That consensus came with the caveats that Bob played well, they stayed healthy, and Matthews and Nylander played like superstars.
2.5 of those things aren't happening right now, so I think that means they aren't a bubble team. Matthews has had a couple off games. Hopefully he's just tired. But if it's more than that, it's hard to see how this team isn't in tough. They are barely above Detroit for last in the division.
I don't think so
The odds makers didn't have those caveats for example
No discussion. Just odds:
ESPN Stanley Cup Odds
FanDuel Sports Odds
plus, for example ...
The Hockey News
Daily Faceoff
The very term "Bubble team" generally implies they might make the playoffs or they might not. Some of that relates to where they finished last season. Some of that was probably due to them being one of the oldest teams in the NHL and therefore, they are a higher risk for injuries or decline. Some of that was probably due to the uncertainty of which Matthews or Tanev they were going to get. Some of that was due to the uncertainty of the goaltending, etc, etc.
To begin the season, they were not regarded as a serious contender to win a Cup. They were regarded by many as a team that might or might not make the playoffs. That is roughly about where they are right now. It will probably get a little bleaker after the next 3 games against good teams. And it will probably brighten some after the easier 4 games that follow.
Welcome to the 2026-27 Leafs rollercoaster!!
Frank E
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L K
Well-known member
Its certainly too early to write the team off. Injuries and personal slumps could explain some of the drop off. What I haven't liked the last few games is that there doesn't seem to be much in the way of push back for the poor outcomes. Cowan will jump guys but where have Duhaime/Blueger/McEwan/Sissons/Paul been to throw a few big hits and try and get momentum back in these games. Overall they have been useful players for other things but the bottom 6 should be able to do something to get the momentum going. McEwan has a handful of fights. But the rest of them?
Matthews got thrown around a lot by Hamilton last night. No change in response in Matthews game.
It's the same soft team.
Losing this game on its own I'm fine with. Rielly has been useful this year. Tanev shouldn't be relied on but is still important. Rifai/Blankenburg hurts the depth even more. Tavares hasn't looked good in either game so I suspect he's coming back not quite at 100% given the team slump. Nylander looked better on Saturday but his game has seemed off for a while so I wonder if he's banged up. Marchenko and Roslovic were big losses.
The loss is understandable. The poor efforts game over game aren't.
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Also penalties are my thing to complain about.
Nylander has drawn 2 penalties all year. Matthews has drawn 6. Cowan has drawn 5. Matthews is the only player who has drawn more than 1 penalty more than they have taken.
25-14 penalty differential over the last 7 games.
Some of that is playstyle. Some of that is effort but its hard to win games when you are taking 1-2 more penalties than your opponent every game.
Matthews got thrown around a lot by Hamilton last night. No change in response in Matthews game.
It's the same soft team.
Losing this game on its own I'm fine with. Rielly has been useful this year. Tanev shouldn't be relied on but is still important. Rifai/Blankenburg hurts the depth even more. Tavares hasn't looked good in either game so I suspect he's coming back not quite at 100% given the team slump. Nylander looked better on Saturday but his game has seemed off for a while so I wonder if he's banged up. Marchenko and Roslovic were big losses.
The loss is understandable. The poor efforts game over game aren't.
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Also penalties are my thing to complain about.
Nylander has drawn 2 penalties all year. Matthews has drawn 6. Cowan has drawn 5. Matthews is the only player who has drawn more than 1 penalty more than they have taken.
25-14 penalty differential over the last 7 games.
Some of that is playstyle. Some of that is effort but its hard to win games when you are taking 1-2 more penalties than your opponent every game.
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YYZ
Well-known member
That McWard feller looked better than any other Dman on the Leafs.
rjd
Well-known member
I always thought that the term bubble team is a team that could make the playoffs by 1 to 5 points or miss the playoff by 1 to 5 points. A bubble team is in the mix but there are no guarantees either way.
Reading what you posted, I feel they support my argument. What I read those articles as saying is that being a bubble team is the ceiling for this team, if things go their way. If Bob plays well, if Matthews has a resurgence, if they can stay healthy then they should be in the mix to make the playoffs. If those things don't happen, then they aren't going to get to their ceiling. I'm not saying they are going to be the worst team in the league, but at this point, the Leafs look like a team that is going to finish with somewhere between 82 and 90 points. Ottawa made the last wildcard spot last season with 99 points, and it doesn't look like that number is going down this year given the strength of the Atlantic division.
They will look better when they get healthier and they are playing weaker opponents, but even if they look better I don't think that they will win enough to make up the ground that they lost. I don't feel that this team, even with the firepower they have, can reel off 8 wins in a row, or win 11 of 12, and at this point, it's probably going to take that for them to get back into the playoff conversation. They have too many weaknesses for that firepower to cover up.
What I don't understand is the lack of ability to play defence. Defence is systems and commitment. They don't seem to be able to play with that system and commitment at one end, and then turn it on at the other end. It's like collectively as a team, they think it's all or nothing. Either they make high skilled plays and generate offence, but get burned defensively, or they try and lock it down defensively and then generate nothing offensively. They have 0 transition game at the moment. I feel that if they could have figured that out sooner they wouldn't have lost some of the games that they have lost, and therefore would be in a better position right now. Even when they are fully healthy and clicking, I don't think they have enough to make up the ground they need to make up to be in that bubble conversation by the end of the year.
ZBBM
Well-known member
I did say that. I really did. Moral of the story: Don't say anything.
Before the season I thought the Leafs had a good chance to be a playoff team, if they stayed reasonably healthy (especially Tanev), Matthews returned to something closer to the Matthews of old (pretty much so far) and Bob played just a bit better than he did last year. I even thought they could do some damage in the playoffs if "playoff Bob" appeared. What I didn't expect was for the team defense to be so bad, even when they were mostly healthy. Now that injuries have struck they've really dug a hole and it is just getting deeper with every regulation loss.
I don't see how they're going to dig out of it. Even if everyone gets and stays healthy for a run, they just seem to be the same lackadaisical/inconsistent Leafs who only play parts of games. And of course, they still don't really seem emotionally invested (same as it ever was with a team led by Matthews/Tavares/Nylander). Other than Cowan, who is reminding me more and more of Kadri.
Also a bit disappointing is that McKenna seems really over-matched out there at even strength. Sure he makes the occasional great play, but that is more than offset by the Domi-like no look hope passes he throws around multiple times a game (including in/near his own end). I know he's only 18 and 160 pounds but I did expect he'd look better and be more impactful.
I don't see how they're going to dig out of it. Even if everyone gets and stays healthy for a run, they just seem to be the same lackadaisical/inconsistent Leafs who only play parts of games. And of course, they still don't really seem emotionally invested (same as it ever was with a team led by Matthews/Tavares/Nylander). Other than Cowan, who is reminding me more and more of Kadri.
Also a bit disappointing is that McKenna seems really over-matched out there at even strength. Sure he makes the occasional great play, but that is more than offset by the Domi-like no look hope passes he throws around multiple times a game (including in/near his own end). I know he's only 18 and 160 pounds but I did expect he'd look better and be more impactful.
herman
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L K
Well-known member
It's kind of baffling how unlucky Raddysh has been to not have a puck bounce off a stick or an ass and end up in the net for a goal.
He has 44 shots so far this year. That's 9th in the league for all defensemen. He leads the entire NHL in most shots without a goal.
He has 111 total shot attempts which puts him at 25th in the NHL this year. 44 shots on goal, 27 missed the net and 40 were blocked.
The Leafs can do a better job of getting him in better positions to use his slap shot but all of his shots deflecting away from the net and not bouncing off 2 sticks and going in the net is just bad luck.
I'm not expecting 20 goals from him but you can see the season wearing on his face. When a goal goes in I wouldn't be surprised to see him score in bunches for a bit.
I think you are contradicting yourself
They've only played 19 games - not quite a quarter of the season.
Maybe McCabe wakes up like he did two years ago
Maybe McKenna has a gestalt and improves his 2-way play (and maybe Nylander catches on ... ok, that's not realistic ..)
Maybe Bobrovsky improves
Maybe they can stay healthy for a stretch
Maybe some other teams suffer significant injuries
I accept that it will be difficult for them to make a significant trade that impacts the roster because they're cap constrained this year & next and have limited young assets to offer.
I cannot imagine this team as a true Cup contender but it is a little early for me to stick a fork in them and announce they're done for the playoffs. That may be how it turns out but I'm hoping for better. I realize after games like we've seen recently, that is not as easy to accept. This team can be entertaining. I hope we'll see some of that.
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Tampa worked quite a bit on how to work him into the PP and take advantage of his shot. In defense of this team and their coach, they have had very few practices because of the shortened preseason and schedule. With so much turnover on the roster. that has hurt them in my opinion.
L K
Well-known member
On a side note, New Jersey is hiding Hellebyuck from the Winnipeg crowd. Soft.
rjd
Well-known member
I don't think I am contradicting myself.
I read that as:
If (Bob plays well) AND (the team stays healthy) AND (Matthews is a superstar) THEN
RANGE (YEAR_END_TEAM_POINTS >= 95, YEAR_END_TEAM_POINTS <= 105)
else
RANGE (CURRENT_POINT_TOTAL, YEAR_END_TEAM_POINTS < 95) // Accounts for not winning another game. Not likely, but anything is possible.
endif
If (YEAR_END_TEAM_POINT >= 95) THEN
TORONTO_MAPLE_LEAFS = BUBBLE_TEAM
else
TORONT_MAPLE_LEAFS = ~BUBBLE_TEAM
endif
Bob has not played well, and team has not stayed healthy. Therefore, right now, the Leafs are not a bubble team. There current points percentage points to that. Yes they are within a playoff spot by the point total I listed, but it would have to be scaled to be something like 0.25 to 1.25 points due to the lack of games played.
Where we have a difference of opinion is that you think there is room for improvement, and that they can get back into that bubble team range and I do not.
I'm happy that you feel some positivity around this year with this team, and that you think that they will come out the other side and they'll make a run, and be in the conversation for the playoffs at the end of the year. I'm not saying that you are wrong to feel that way, or that it's not a defensible position. There are things that could happen that would change this teams fortunes.
For me, we've just seen so much over the last 10 years where this team has to overcome their deficiencies, they fail to do so. Whether it was bad goaltending, lack of depth, bad defensive structure, what have you. I am not putting it on one specific player, but as an organization, the Leafs have not been able to punch above their weight class, and they usually fall into the area that we think they are going to fall into. Any of those years, where they have been beat out by some team in the first two rounds of the playoffs, we say "Well they didn't have the goaltending, or they didn't have the depth, or the other team was just better". So this year, they needed to stay healthy, and they needed Bob to steal games, and they needed Matthews to be old Matthews to challenge for a playoff spot. If those things didn't happen, then the team would probably be punching above their weight class if they were in the playoff conversation. Some of those things are happening, so it is likely the Leafs will finish near the bottom of the Atlantic division, probably ahead of Detroit, but maybe not. If you said at the start of the year "Bob is going to be slightly below average" and "They have a ton of injury problems" you'd probably say "Yeah that's about right".
I basing this on what we saw every year where they would change things, and we were hoping for the Leafs to be successful, and we thought this could be the year, but they would always have to overcome some deficiency with the roster construction. Dubas would roll the roster, same result at the end of the year. Treliving rebuilt the defence, same result at the end of the year. Chayka rebuilt the roster, and so far, they are at the same point they were last year. Same record, and the same concerning traits in their game, specifically the defensive game. So I am not sure what switch is going to be flipped all of sudden where the defence gets more stout, or the team stops having large lapses of listless play in the middle of the games. I'm at the "Stop talking about it and prove it to me" point. If they make a run of it I will give them their due. They just don't get the benefit of the doubt from me.
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