Draft Pick Watch - WE PICKED NYLANDER!!1!!

[Kin]

So then how do you account for the dominance of certain teams over a period of time compared to others.  For example in the NFL, the Ravens have been pretty decent for a while now, whereas the Browns are horrid year after year. 

Detriot makes the playoffs every year.  Leafs, not so much.

Basketball has the Spurs, whereas the Knicks can't seem to get out of their own way.

Baseball is largely a money issue.  So I won't use any team there as an example.  If you have money, you can field a decent team.

Well, it's funny you say that because Baseball is probably the best case for your argument where the payroll discrepancies have forced smart teams like the A's and the Rays to be innovative with regards to scouting and player evaluation.

But beyond that there are all manner of factors that extend beyond scouting in terms of why a team is good for a prolonged period. Look at the Spurs. How much of it is scouting and how much of it is coaching? Or luck? It wasn't a brilliant scouting department that landed them Tim Duncan. They just happened to win the draft lottery in a year where the consensus #1 pick was one of the 10 best NBA players of all-time. They weren't any smarter than the Nets who won the lottery in a year where Kenyon Martin was the best player available.

Heck, for a perfect example of that look at the Colts. They have the #1 pick in a year where one of the best QB's of all time is available in Peyton Manning. They choose him and are good for 15 years. Then, Manning gets hurt and they're the worst team in the league again. Happily, they're the worst team in the league in a year where another terrific QB prospect is slated by all to go #1 in the draft. Now they're good again. Brilliant scouting?

If scouting were the sort of commodity you make it out to be, the Knicks would have it. So would the Cowboys. If the Red Wing's success could be replicated, it would have been by now.

 

[93forever]

I agree with the posters above who mentioned the Leafs didn't know how to draft players properly, but there were/are other problems:  not developing players properly, but that is slowly changing and improving.  The other problem is when the players have developed in the AHL or from Juniors, due to poor coaching or bad systems, the players become ruined.  There is no continuity of development or an established base of success to build upon so every season ends in futility.

 

[hockeyfan1]

From: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-epic-collapse-proves-leafs-are-far-from-being-a-cup-contender/article17732588/

...Toronto is currently on pace to enter the lottery in 11th position, a spot that can improve to as high as seventh or eighth should they continue
to lose games.

While this year isn?t a particularly strong draft class, there will be a quality
prospect available in the top 10, the kind that this group still desperately
needs more of to continue its rebuild.

 

[Jalili]

The Leafs have made up some nice ground and should be able to crack the top 10 if they keep losing.

6. Carolina 74
7. Winnipeg 75
8. Ottawa 76
9. Nashville 77
10. New Jersey 77
11. Vancouver 79
12. Toronto 80

 

[Fanatic]

The Leafs have made up some nice ground and should be able to crack the top 10 if they keep losing.

6. Carolina 74
7. Winnipeg 75
8. Ottawa 76
9. Nashville 77
10. New Jersey 77
11. Vancouver 79
12. Toronto 80

I have not seen it mentioned in this thread yet so I will mention not to forget that New Jersey has lost their first round pick because of a penalty imposed by the NHL. Later the NHL decided to give NJ a first round pick but not in their normal order - they will pick 30th overall (last in the first round) regardless of where they finish. That means you can move the Leafs one higher in the draft.

Back to the main topic though, as with other years, I am of the opinion that if you are going to miss the playoffs you may as well fall as hard as you can and get the highest possible draft pick. The Leafs will not make the playoffs, so whether you call it tank or anything else, I am hoping for losses as they wind down the season.

 

[Redleaf]

The Leafs have made up some nice ground and should be able to crack the top 10 if they keep losing.

6. Carolina 74
7. Winnipeg 75
8. Ottawa 76
9. Nashville 77
10. New Jersey 77
11. Vancouver 79
12. Toronto 80

I have not seen it mentioned in this thread yet so I will mention not to forget that New Jersey has lost their first round pick because of a penalty imposed by the NHL. Later the NHL decided to give NJ a first round pick but not in their normal order - they will pick 30th overall (last in the first round) regardless of where they finish. That means you can move the Leafs one higher in the draft.

Back to the main topic though, as with other years, I am of the opinion that if you are going to miss the playoffs you may as well fall as hard as you can and get the highest possible draft pick. The Leafs will not make the playoffs, so whether you call it tank or anything else, I am hoping for losses as they wind down the season.

But, just to be clear....you know that's not going to happen, right?

Either just before they are officially eliminated, or most likely just after they are, they will play like Stanley cup champions. Heck, even David Clarkson will start to come around. Watch for it... :-X

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I have not seen it mentioned in this thread yet so I will mention not to forget that New Jersey has lost their first round pick because of a penalty imposed by the NHL. Later the NHL decided to give NJ a first round pick but not in their normal order - they will pick 30th overall (last in the first round) regardless of where they finish. That means you can move the Leafs one higher in the draft.

Thanks, I wasn't taking that into consideration. Unfortunately I wouldn't be surprised if New Jersey passed us.

 

[rdowdall]

So then how do you account for the dominance of certain teams over a period of time compared to others.  For example in the NFL, the Ravens have been pretty decent for a while now, whereas the Browns are horrid year after year. 

Detriot makes the playoffs every year.  Leafs, not so much.

Basketball has the Spurs, whereas the Knicks can't seem to get out of their own way.

Baseball is largely a money issue.  So I won't use any team there as an example.  If you have money, you can field a decent team.

Well, it's funny you say that because Baseball is probably the best case for your argument where the payroll discrepancies have forced smart teams like the A's and the Rays to be innovative with regards to scouting and player evaluation.

But beyond that there are all manner of factors that extend beyond scouting in terms of why a team is good for a prolonged period. Look at the Spurs. How much of it is scouting and how much of it is coaching? Or luck? It wasn't a brilliant scouting department that landed them Tim Duncan. They just happened to win the draft lottery in a year where the consensus #1 pick was one of the 10 best NBA players of all-time. They weren't any smarter than the Nets who won the lottery in a year where Kenyon Martin was the best player available.

Heck, for a perfect example of that look at the Colts. They have the #1 pick in a year where one of the best QB's of all time is available in Peyton Manning. They choose him and are good for 15 years. Then, Manning gets hurt and they're the worst team in the league again. Happily, they're the worst team in the league in a year where another terrific QB prospect is slated by all to go #1 in the draft. Now they're good again. Brilliant scouting?

If scouting were the sort of commodity you make it out to be, the Knicks would have it. So would the Cowboys. If the Red Wing's success could be replicated, it would have been by now.

So really it just boils down to that the Leafs are unlucky?

I will admit that by saying that all they have to invest in to is scouting is an over simplification of the problem.  The Leafs should be the crown jewel of the NHL.  They should be the model that other organizations try to follow.  Not the laughing stock of the league.  To oversimplify the problem again, I think that they are not spending their money wisely, because they are not getting the result that they say they want, which is to win the cup.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I'm still on the McCann bandwagon, though the Leafs may fall to a point where they are too high to take him.

ISS has him 15th:

@ISShockey 
http://ISStop30.com
#15 Jared McCann @jaredmccann19
Total package... 2way energy & awareness. Offensive weapons are his difference maker.

McKeen's has him 7th.

 

[Kin]

So really it just boils down to that the Leafs are unlucky?

No. I mean, the Raptors are unlucky. They won the lottery and had the #1 pick in a year where there was no consensus #1 pick and only a couple of really good players emerged. The Leafs keep putting themselves in a position where they're not likely to be able to draft the sort of game-changing difference makers that can drastically alter a franchise's future for 10+ years or, when they are in that position, have already traded away their pick.

I will admit that by saying that all they have to invest in to is scouting is an over simplification of the problem.  The Leafs should be the crown jewel of the NHL.  They should be the model that other organizations try to follow.  Not the laughing stock of the league.  To oversimplify the problem again, I think that they are not spending their money wisely, because they are not getting the result that they say they want, which is to win the cup.

I don't disagree in terms of money should be able to generate success but A) their sheepishly going along with the Cap was them shooting themselves in both feet in that regard and B) the inability to translate "Lots of money, loyal fanbase, tons of history" into year in and year out success is hardly unique to them. Look at the Cowboys and Knicks, like you said. Throw in the Cubs to that mix.

I mean, it's an old argument but it's like I was talking about with the A's and the Rays in Baseball. Being smart, being innovative...it's not a matter of choice for them. It's a matter of their survival. Necessity is the mother of invention, right? The Leafs, and the teams I just mentioned, they just don't have that impetus.

 

[Jalili]

I have not seen it mentioned in this thread yet so I will mention not to forget that New Jersey has lost their first round pick because of a penalty imposed by the NHL. Later the NHL decided to give NJ a first round pick but not in their normal order - they will pick 30th overall (last in the first round) regardless of where they finish. That means you can move the Leafs one higher in the draft.

Back to the main topic though, as with other years, I am of the opinion that if you are going to miss the playoffs you may as well fall as hard as you can and get the highest possible draft pick. The Leafs will not make the playoffs, so whether you call it tank or anything else, I am hoping for losses as they wind down the season.

Yeah thanks for the reminder, I forgot about that.

6. Carolina 74
7. Winnipeg 75
8. Ottawa 76
9. Nashville 77
30. New Jersey 77
10. Vancouver 79
11. Toronto 80

 

[LuncheonMeat]

The Leafs have made up some nice ground and should be able to crack the top 10 if they keep losing.

6. Carolina 74
7. Winnipeg 75
8. Ottawa 76
9. Nashville 77
10. New Jersey 77
11. Vancouver 79
12. Toronto 80

That last game against Ottawa could be a big one in our drive for (top) five!!  8)

 

[Britishbulldog]

I was hoping that Carolina and Ottawa would tie and head to overtime and NJD would beat Florida.

Still might happen.  I would hope that Carolina would win in overtime BTW.

Edit:  I was close. 
Ottawa 2 points behind the Leafs with 1 game in hand and identical ROW.

Go Jets! 

 

[hobarth]

I'm not all that doom and gloom but I will say that the worst thing to happen to the Leafs organization over the last 30 years is the cap.  It took away a massive advantage that they had that could put them in the playoffs most years just as they were beginning to build a culture of using it. Darn.

Actually the Franson/Lombardi was basically TO taking on $s because the money was there, Nashville wanted to get rid of Lombardi's contract so offered Franson to sweeten the deal.

This last draft was considered the best since 2003, 2003 had Perry and Getzlaf go quite late in the draft so if this last draft was that good why would Morrison be looking for 3rd line safe draft picks instead of looking for a home run steal. Gauthier makes me think of Biggs who's potential maxes as a 4th liner, why would any team be using the 1st round to pick players of such limited potential.

That's an interesting way of looking at it.

To this day, I think the franchise messed up royally by not rebuilding back in 2005 as it should have.

You had to give them that one season, but I don't disagree that once they fired Quinn that maybe a rebuild was in order there.  My problem with what ended up happening is that there was no private discussion with the current core of the team.  There wasn't an opportunity to explain where the team was planning to go to allow McCabe, Tucker, Sundin, Kaberle etc. a chance to think about moving on over the offseason.  Instead we just waited until Fletcher treated everyone like stink and disrespected one of the best, if not the greatest, player the organization has ever had.

The Leafs still really haven't embraced the proper use of the cap IMO.  Bad buyouts.  Overpaying flawed players to substantial contracts.  Not leveraging draft picks and home grown players in your bottom 6.  Having your team up against the cap and yet you are the organization retaining salary on trades.

I really haven't seen a single year where the Leafs management have shown any sort of acuity for working the Cap to the teams advantage.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

You had to give them that one season, but I don't disagree that once they fired Quinn that maybe a rebuild was in order there.  My problem with what ended up happening is that there was no private discussion with the current core of the team.  There wasn't an opportunity to explain where the team was planning to go to allow McCabe, Tucker, Sundin, Kaberle etc. a chance to think about moving on over the offseason.  Instead we just waited until Fletcher treated everyone like stink and disrespected one of the best, if not the greatest, player the organization has ever had.

Didn't JFJ go to the board to suggest a rebuild and was basically told no?

 

[bustaheims]

Didn't JFJ go to the board to suggest a rebuild and was basically told no?

That's the legend. Whether or not it's actually true is sort of something we'll never know for sure.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Didn't JFJ go to the board to suggest a rebuild and was basically told no?

That's the legend. Whether or not it's actually true is sort of something we'll never know for sure.

Here's apparently what JFJ said on the radio yesterday:

@draglikepull 

JFJ admits what we all expected: MLSE wouldn't let him go into rebuilding mode when he was GM. Had budgeted for 5 playoff games a year.

 

[rdowdall]

So really it just boils down to that the Leafs are unlucky?

No. I mean, the Raptors are unlucky. They won the lottery and had the #1 pick in a year where there was no consensus #1 pick and only a couple of really good players emerged. The Leafs keep putting themselves in a position where they're not likely to be able to draft the sort of game-changing difference makers that can drastically alter a franchise's future for 10+ years or, when they are in that position, have already traded away their pick.

I will admit that by saying that all they have to invest in to is scouting is an over simplification of the problem.  The Leafs should be the crown jewel of the NHL.  They should be the model that other organizations try to follow.  Not the laughing stock of the league.  To oversimplify the problem again, I think that they are not spending their money wisely, because they are not getting the result that they say they want, which is to win the cup.

I don't disagree in terms of money should be able to generate success but A) their sheepishly going along with the Cap was them shooting themselves in both feet in that regard and B) the inability to translate "Lots of money, loyal fanbase, tons of history" into year in and year out success is hardly unique to them. Look at the Cowboys and Knicks, like you said. Throw in the Cubs to that mix.

I mean, it's an old argument but it's like I was talking about with the A's and the Rays in Baseball. Being smart, being innovative...it's not a matter of choice for them. It's a matter of their survival. Necessity is the mother of invention, right? The Leafs, and the teams I just mentioned, they just don't have that impetus.

So do the Cowboys ever win a Super bowl again?  If you look at the Yankees, they were able to spend in order to build a team that won a Championship.  Is it possible in a cap system for a team to learn that they have to innovate, and can't rely on their cash flow to fix problems?  I realize that nobody really has the answer to this.  The answer seems so simple.  That a simple shift in focus would probably produce better results for them in the long run.  They are however so concerned with the present that they cannot plan for the future. 

 

[hockeyfan1]

So do the Cowboys ever win a Super bowl again?  If you look at the Yankees, they were able to spend in order to build a team that won a Championship.  Is it possible in a cap system for a team to learn that they have to innovate, and can't rely on their cash flow to fix problems?  I realize that nobody really has the answer to this.  The answer seems so simple.  That a simple shift in focus would probably produce better results for them in the long run.  They are however so concerned with the present that they cannot plan for the future. 

The Blue Jays spent their way to two World Series championships in obtaining key players that helped them achieve success.  Of course, in those days, the Jays had a good farm system, too.

It's worth noting that the Maple Leafs (pre-'70's era) had plenty of farm teams or what was referred to as farm chattels.  Ballard sold off most or all of their chattels.  Also, right up until 1962, the Leafs organization was drafting right out of St.Michael's College School -- the likes of Frank Mahovlich, Red Kelly, Turk Broda, Tim Horton, -- to name a few, when St. Michael's was a part of the then OHA (not OHL).


I agree that they need to evaluate far better than they have shown even in this cap era.  This team has never looked nor been planned properly, due to poor drafting in the past and poor judgement on player qualities.  The blame game can be shared by many from top to bottom.


It's time to wake up!

 

[Redleaf]

The Leafs have made up some nice ground and should be able to crack the top 10 if they keep losing.

6. Carolina 74
7. Winnipeg 75
8. Ottawa 76
9. Nashville 77
10. New Jersey 77
11. Vancouver 79
12. Toronto 80

I have not seen it mentioned in this thread yet so I will mention not to forget that New Jersey has lost their first round pick because of a penalty imposed by the NHL. Later the NHL decided to give NJ a first round pick but not in their normal order - they will pick 30th overall (last in the first round) regardless of where they finish. That means you can move the Leafs one higher in the draft.

Back to the main topic though, as with other years, I am of the opinion that if you are going to miss the playoffs you may as well fall as hard as you can and get the highest possible draft pick. The Leafs will not make the playoffs, so whether you call it tank or anything else, I am hoping for losses as they wind down the season.

But, just to be clear....you know that's not going to happen, right?

Either just before they are officially eliminated, or most likely just after they are, they will play like Stanley cup champions. Heck, even David Clarkson will start to come around. Watch for it... :-X

Right on schedule.