Ducks shopping Ryan

[Kin]

For those floating Grabs as trade bait, I would ask: is Ryan really an upgrade?  I have serious doubts.  I would not be in any rush to trade away Grabovski's work ethic, especially since his offensive stats are not miles below Ryan's.

In Ryan's first three years in the league, or the last three years, his average was 36 goals, 33 assists and 69 points over 82 games. Grabo, in his first three years, has averages of 22 goals, 31 assists and 53 points. I think that's a pretty significant statistical difference. Throw in that Ryan is a full three years younger and I think you'd be hard pressed to argue that Ryan isn't on a different level.

 

[ZBBM]

For those floating Grabs as trade bait, I would ask: is Ryan really an upgrade?  I have serious doubts.  I would not be in any rush to trade away Grabovski's work ethic, especially since his offensive stats are not miles below Ryan's.

I would say so, yes. Ryan is a significant upgrade over Grabo. To that point, Ryan could probably play on the 1st line on most NHL teams as they stand now. How many could Grabo? In addition, Ryan is signed (and to a nice number as well) so on that alone, Ryan is the better asset... by quite a margin I feel. 

My concern is the defensive side of Ryan's game.  I really feel that our recent success is in no small part due to the forwards supporting the D.  Can/will Ryan do that?

 

[Zee]

For those floating Grabs as trade bait, I would ask: is Ryan really an upgrade?  I have serious doubts.  I would not be in any rush to trade away Grabovski's work ethic, especially since his offensive stats are not miles below Ryan's.

In Ryan's first three years in the league, or the last three years, his average was 36 goals, 33 assists and 69 points over 82 games. Grabo, in his first three years, has averages of 22 goals, 31 assists and 53 points. I think that's a pretty significant statistical difference. Throw in that Ryan is a full three years younger and I think you'd be hard pressed to argue that Ryan isn't on a different level.

Ryan strikes me as a guy similar to Kessel, he could have another gear that hasn't been shown yet, and when he hits it he'll be one of those guys you never want to trade.

 

[Fanatic]

Because I think the Ducks problem is somewhat opposite to what the Leafs problem is.  Lack of organizational depth but three really good first line players.  Acquiring Grabovski allows them to move Koivu to the third line centre role.

I don't know if you were referring to the NHL team specifically but I don't know if the problem in Anaheim is a lack of organizational depth from a prospect standpoint. They were ranked just below the Leafs on that organizational list from HF.

Honestly, the more and more I look at the roster the less and less I'm sold on this being anything other than a pretty stupid panic move. You can argue that their bottom six isn't great but you don't trade a player like Ryan to improve the team's bottom 6.

It is a stupid panic move, that's why I'm not convinced it'll happen.  Maybe cooler heads will prevail.  Of course there's also the school of thought that they won't be able to afford to keep Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan when the first 2 are up for a new contract, so maybe that also plays into it, who knows.

I am not sure that it is a panic move.

The Ducks may have it in their long term thinking that thety can never afford to keep Ryan, Getzlaf and Perry together, but did not think they would have to address that until a year or so from now. But since they are dropping in the standings it may make a lot of sense to sell off Ryan now and get whatever they can as they start to retool for the coming years.

 

[Kin]

It is a stupid panic move, that's why I'm not convinced it'll happen.  Maybe cooler heads will prevail.  Of course there's also the school of thought that they won't be able to afford to keep Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan when the first 2 are up for a new contract, so maybe that also plays into it, who knows.

I think that's the kind of thing that they'd deal with if and when it came up as opposed to right away. The idea of trading the youngest of their top line guys for anything other than a serious return strikes me as pretty nutty and if it's just based on a lousy start to the year then I think someone needs to explain to them the concepts of a small sample size and parity.

 

[ZBBM]

For those floating Grabs as trade bait, I would ask: is Ryan really an upgrade?  I have serious doubts.  I would not be in any rush to trade away Grabovski's work ethic, especially since his offensive stats are not miles below Ryan's.

In Ryan's first three years in the league, or the last three years, his average was 36 goals, 33 assists and 69 points over 82 games. Grabo, in his first three years, has averages of 22 goals, 31 assists and 53 points. I think that's a pretty significant statistical difference. Throw in that Ryan is a full three years younger and I think you'd be hard pressed to argue that Ryan isn't on a different level.

Not saying Ryan doesn't bring more firepower, but those stats are not miles apart, as I said.

 

[Zee]

For those floating Grabs as trade bait, I would ask: is Ryan really an upgrade?  I have serious doubts.  I would not be in any rush to trade away Grabovski's work ethic, especially since his offensive stats are not miles below Ryan's.

I would say so, yes. Ryan is a significant upgrade over Grabo. To that point, Ryan could probably play on the 1st line on most NHL teams as they stand now. How many could Grabo? In addition, Ryan is signed (and to a nice number as well) so on that alone, Ryan is the better asset... by quite a margin I feel. 

My concern is the defensive side of Ryan's game.  I really feel that our recent success is in no small part due to the forwards supporting the D.  Can/will Ryan do that?

Kessel bought in to backchecking, I don't see why Ryan wouldn't.  By all accounts he's a very mature and intelligent person, that story that someone posted the other day really opened my eyes as to the type of character he must have.  We know Burke really likes him, and Burke can see through the BS that some players try to hide behind.

 

[Kin]

I am not sure that it is a panic move.

The Ducks may have it in their long term thinking that thety can never afford to keep Ryan, Getzlaf and Perry together, but did not think they would have to address that until a year or so from now. But since they are dropping in the standings it may make a lot of sense to sell off Ryan now and get whatever they can as they start to retool for the coming years.

That strikes me as the very definition of a panic move. Making a decision like that on the basis of a bad first 25 games or so doesn't make sense unless the idea is that Ryan's stock will drop over the year which, again, seems like a bizarre conclusion.

 

[McPwnage]

Lets assume it is kadri/macarthur/aulie and we can keep Grabovski and aulie (really hope we can) that would make a pretty good ideal roster.  Honestly with Burke talking about the league evolving into a top 8 or 9 system on TSN radio yesterday I would expect Armstrong to get demoted to the 4th line. 

Lupul - Bozak - Kessel
Ryan - Grabovski - Kulemin/Macarthur
Frattin - Connolly - Lombardi
Brown - Steckel - Armstrong

Phaneuf - Gunnar/Aulie
Schenn - Gardiner
Liles - Komisarek

Reimer
Gustavsson

 

[Zee]

For those floating Grabs as trade bait, I would ask: is Ryan really an upgrade?  I have serious doubts.  I would not be in any rush to trade away Grabovski's work ethic, especially since his offensive stats are not miles below Ryan's.

In Ryan's first three years in the league, or the last three years, his average was 36 goals, 33 assists and 69 points over 82 games. Grabo, in his first three years, has averages of 22 goals, 31 assists and 53 points. I think that's a pretty significant statistical difference. Throw in that Ryan is a full three years younger and I think you'd be hard pressed to argue that Ryan isn't on a different level.

Not saying Ryan doesn't bring more firepower, but those stats are not miles apart, as I said.

You could have said the same thing about Kessel and Grabovski as well based on last season.

 

[Kin]

Not saying Ryan doesn't bring more firepower, but those stats are not miles apart, as I said.

A guy having Ryan's average year last year would have ranked as the #7 goal scorer in the league. Grabo's would have him tied for 69th. Ryan's year would be tied for 25th in points, Grabo's tied for 76th.

The guy last year who had the most similar season to the Ryan numbers was either Pat Sharp or Danny Briere. The guy last year who had the most similar season to the Grabo numbers was PA Parenteau.

I don't want to quibble about the definition of "miles" you're using but those are pretty effin' significant gaps.

 

[ZBBM]

Not saying Ryan doesn't bring more firepower, but those stats are not miles apart, as I said.

A guy having Ryan's average year last year would have ranked as the #7 goal scorer in the league. Grabo's would have him tied for 69th. Ryan's year would be tied for 25th in points, Grabo's tied for 76th.

The guy last year who had the most similar season to the Ryan numbers was either Pat Sharp or Danny Briere. The guy last year who had the most similar season to the Grabo numbers was PA Parenteau.

I don't want to quibble about the definition of "miles" you're using but those are pretty effin' significant gaps.

The numbers, Nik, the actual numbers -- not miles apart.  Cherry-picked player comparisons are fun but not valid, as I'm sure you know....  Unless you are seriously saying that Grabs is comparable to Parenteau....?

 

[rdowdall]

Because I think the Ducks problem is somewhat opposite to what the Leafs problem is.  Lack of organizational depth but three really good first line players.  Acquiring Grabovski allows them to move Koivu to the third line centre role.

I don't know if you were referring to the NHL team specifically but I don't know if the problem in Anaheim is a lack of organizational depth from a prospect standpoint. They were ranked just below the Leafs on that organizational list from HF.

Honestly, the more and more I look at the roster the less and less I'm sold on this being anything other than a pretty stupid panic move. You can argue that their bottom six isn't great but you don't trade a player like Ryan to improve the team's bottom 6.

I was thinking that guys like Grabovski and Kulemin would go in to their top 6, shifting guys down in to their bottom six.  Selanne and Koivu are ageing, and they may not have anybody to replace them.  Sorry, should have said roster depth.

 

[Fanatic]

I am not sure that it is a panic move.

The Ducks may have it in their long term thinking that thety can never afford to keep Ryan, Getzlaf and Perry together, but did not think they would have to address that until a year or so from now. But since they are dropping in the standings it may make a lot of sense to sell off Ryan now and get whatever they can as they start to retool for the coming years.

That strikes me as the very definition of a panic move. Making a decision like that on the basis of a bad first 25 games or so doesn't make sense unless the idea is that Ryan's stock will drop over the year which, again, seems like a bizarre conclusion.

If the organization's plan was to keep the 3 of them together as long as possible and enjoy all the success they can before they have to retool then it makes sense. It makes sense now because they are not enjoying any succcess. Why risk an injury to Ryan now when the team is going in the wrong direction AND financially they are losing more than they want to anyway? Test the market and see what Ryan could bring it - perhaps now is the time to retool and save some money while they are at it. If doing that as a reaction to being essentially out of a playoff race by December 1st (like the Leafs in years gone by) is a panic move then I guess it is a panic move.

 

[bustaheims]

Not saying Ryan doesn't bring more firepower, but those stats are not miles apart, as I said.

I don't know about you, but I consider 14 goals and 16 points to be pretty significant differences.

 

[maplesyrup]

Not saying Ryan doesn't bring more firepower, but those stats are not miles apart, as I said.

I don't know about you, but I consider 14 goals and 16 points to be pretty significant differences.

and it's just not one season either on Ryan's part... Ryan has pretty much been dangerous on a consistent basis since entering the league. I like Grabovski just fine but that just can't be said of him. Moreover, Ryan probably hasn't hit his ceiling yet where I wouldn't be shocked if Grabo has already played his best year.

 

[Kin]

The numbers, Nik, the actual numbers -- not miles apart.  Cherry-picked player comparisons are fun but not valid, as I'm sure you know....  Unless you are seriously saying that Grabs is comparable to Parenteau....?

I'm putting those numbers in a human context and illustrating the gap between them. Again, the difference between 7th and 69th in the league in goal scoring is a significant one. Same with 25th and 76th in points. As for just the flat out numbers, I mean, you're talking about a...40% bump in terms of goal scoring and a near 30% increase in total points? Those are just eyeball figures but those are significant differences.

 

[Kin]

It makes sense now because they are not enjoying any succcess.

Yeah, right now. They're having difficulties right now. But there's no reason to think those are long term problems. That's the basis of my calling it a panic move.

Why risk an injury to Ryan now when the team is going in the wrong direction AND financially they are losing more than they want to anyway?

Because Ryan isn't playing well. He hasn't shown himself to be injury prone in his career and he's shown himself to be a far more productive player than he is now. Even if you're not inclined to keep the team together until you actually have to negotiate with Perry and Getzlaf then at the very least you're selling low on Ryan.

 

[Kin]

I don't know about you, but I consider 14 goals and 16 points to be pretty significant differences.

Yeah, that's just where I was coming from. I mean, if you want to flip it, would anyone argue that there wasn't a pretty important difference between a forward scoring 22 goals and 53 points and a forward scoring 8 goals and 37 points? Because that's the same gap.

 

[ZBBM]

I don't know about you, but I consider 14 goals and 16 points to be pretty significant differences.

Yeah, that's just where I was coming from. I mean, if you want to flip it, would anyone argue that there wasn't a pretty important difference between a forward scoring 22 goals and 53 points and a forward scoring 8 goals and 37 points? Because that's the same gap.

We're quibbling about the difference between "miles apart" and "pretty important difference."  Whatever.

But no one has answered my query about Ryan vs Grabs defensively, and in terms of bringing effort every night.  Aren't there concerns about Ryan in those respects?  Because if there is my whole point is that I wouldn't be in a rush to trade a more complete player (Grabs) for the extra offense (Ryan).  Especially on a team whose forwards have been defensively suspect for years.