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Federal Election 2019

Nik Bethune said:
One thing I really don't get though is why there's all this focus on the Leaders when it really seems to me like was an election about policy. Admittedly, at a point where the Conservatives probably wanted to distance themselves from Trump/Ford-esque conservatism being led by a guy with an American passport who fudged his resume didn't help but I still think what sunk them is their lack of a clear message.

Obviously there was a massive problem for the Conservatives in that the traditional measurements of the economy that they like to use(Stock Market, GDP, Unemployment Rate) are actually doing very well right now so they couldn't really paint Trudeau as having wrecked the economy. They tried to make a big deal about deficit spending but in a country where most people have mortgages and student loans, it's pretty tough to tell people that spending money you don't have adds up to fiscal irresponsibility.

So what were they left with? Vague pledges to lower taxes and cut spending, mainly. Now, I understand that modern Conservative economic theory relies on the pillars of Lower Taxes and Less Spending but even then they muddled on messages. When the NDP and Liberals say they'll cut my phone bill, I get that. Every Conservative ad I saw seemed to talk about various tax credits and assorted esoterica within the tax code which may very well have lowered some people's end of year tab but honestly, I didn't even know if any of it would have applied to me as I don't do my own taxes.

Then there's the spending. I know conservatives like to paint themselves as the grown-ups making tough choices and being honest with people vs. progressives and their fanciful promises but that didn't come through at all either. We saw it Ontario where Ford ran on cutting unspecified "waste" but when elected all of a sudden "waste" meant higher class sizes in schools and less money for disabled people. I think most voters understand that if you're going to cut taxes while caring about the deficit it means spending cuts and those spending cuts have to come from somewhere. I get that actually detailing what money you're cutting isn't popular but, well, if you're going to run on fiscal conservatism you need to be upfront about it.

Again, this is an issue where Progressives, even if you disagree with them, have a much clearer message. Deficit Spending? Acceptable. How are you going to finance new Pharma or Dental Care programs? Higher taxes on Businesses and the Wealthy.

Throw in a lack of actual measurable policy on an issue like Climate Change, which is a major and growing concern for Canadians, and I just don't even know what this election was for for the Conservatives.

Well, I mean Toronto was always going to be a hard area for the cons to make inroads considering what we're seeing with the provincial government also. Where else would the Cons have made gains potentially? Atlantic Canada? Seems hard to see how the cons had a true path to victory here, but that's exacerbated by what you mention above. How long can cons act like it's the 50s and completely ignore climate science? How effective is MONEY IN YOUR POCKET sloganeering really? Cons have generally not done a very good job of managing the deficit in general either as far as I remember.

I think it's hard for most people who aren't really pro small government, less social services to back this type of conservatism. I think you can be conservative, pro business, anti-deficit but pro pharmacare and climate action. I mean the start of the pro-environmentalist movement could arguably have started as a conservative movement. Isn't that sort of the basis of the word?

Edit: I'm a bit young to really know the term, but weren't there Red Tories in the past?
 
Bender said:
Well, I mean Toronto was always going to be a hard area for the cons to make inroads considering what we're seeing with the provincial government also. Where else would the Cons have made gains potentially? Atlantic Canada? Seems hard to see how the cons had a true path to victory here, but that's exacerbated by what you mention above. How long can cons act like it's the 50s and completely ignore climate science? How effective is MONEY IN YOUR POCKET sloganeering really? Cons have generally not done a very good job of managing the deficit in general either as far as I remember.

I agree that it's hard to look at what happened last night and really see a clear path to a Conservative majority(or even government) absent the NDP doing much better.

But I guess my point was more wondering if the issue with the Conservatives in Ontario is with Ford specifically and him being uniquely bad at governing or is it about the problem with trying to run on Conservative economic policies when a lot of them are deeply unpopular.

Bender said:
Edit: I'm a bit young to really know the term, but weren't there Red Tories in the past?

Yes, but the story of the Red Tories is a perfect illustration of why the Conservatives have such a hard time in what is a largely progressive country. The Conservatives could nominate reasonably centrist candidates who didn't have baggage concerning their positions around social issues like Gay Marriage or Abortion but those people would alienate the Social Conservatives who make up a fair portion of their base. In the 90's, the Conservatives had three consecutive 5th place finishes because a more socially conservative/more regional grievance based party took a huge chunk of their vote.

So if the Conservatives went with that approach and moderated their message, sure, maybe they'd win some votes in Atlantic Canada or Ontario but would they lose votes to some version of what Bernier is trying to do and re-split the right wing vote? Because that way is just electoral irrelevance.

I just don't think there's an easy work around for the simple reality that every election in this country the Liberals + NDP + Greens are getting 50-55% of the vote and that's trending up, not down.
 
Nik Bethune said:
I just don't think there's an easy work around for the simple reality that every election in this country the Liberals + NDP + Greens are getting 50-55% of the vote and that's trending up, not down.

More like 60%, but yeah:

https://twitter.com/DougSaunders/status/1186247965381480448
 
CarltonTheBear said:
More like 60%, but yeah:

The three parties I mentioned are 50-55%. Getting up to 60% depends on counting the Bloc as a "Left-Leaning" party which is a stretch even when they're not actively talking about sovereignty.
 
Nik Bethune said:
CarltonTheBear said:
More like 60%, but yeah:

The three parties I mentioned are 50-55%. Getting up to 60% depends on counting the Bloc as a "Left-Leaning" party which is a stretch even when they're not actively talking about sovereignty.

They seem pretty left-leaning in their current state, no (I mean if you had to say if they were right or left of centre)? I guess there probably were times in that graph where that got a lot more muddy, especially when the sovereignty talk was being pushed harder.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
They seem pretty left-leaning in their current state, no (I mean if you had to say if they were right or left of centre)? I guess there probably were times in that graph where that got a lot more muddy, especially when the sovereignty talk was being pushed harder.

Well, I suppose to some extent that depends on where you'd define the centre. If the Liberals are the centre are the Bloc to the left of them? On some things, I suppose. But maybe I'm overemphasizing its importance but their bill 21 seems pretty antithetical to modern progressivism. Especially when the leader of the NDP is a guy who'd have to take his turban off if he wanted to work at Quebec's DMV.
 
Nik Bethune said:
Well, I suppose to some extent that depends on where you'd define the centre. If the Liberals are the centre are the Bloc to the left of them? On some things, I suppose. But maybe I'm overemphasizing its importance but their bill 21 seems pretty antithetical to modern progressivism. Especially when the leader of the NDP is a guy who'd have to take his turban off if he wanted to work at Quebec's DMV.

Yeah bill 21 definitely sticks out like a sore thumb. Even the conservatives don't seem to really support it. I'm not sure how to square that with the rest of their platform.
 
I've definitely viewed the BQ as being to the left (closer to the NDP than Liberal.) With regard to Bill 21, I think most of their support is "stay the hell out of Quebec politics" than it was actually supporting the legislation.

but to an earlier point, I agree Nik that a clear (and more socially progressive) Conservative party would be good for Canada. I thought, in general, their platform was a mess and really vague. One of the local candidates for their party is socially progressive, so he seemed really uncomfortable in local debates despite being a very strong candidate.
 
This article is from 2017: https://ipolitics.ca/2017/05/24/conservatives-may-come-to-regret-ignoring-michael-chong/

The Conservatives missed an opportunity electing Andrew Scheer instead of Michael Chong as their leader. I believe Chong ended up 4th in the voting.
 
Can't stand listening to Scheer. He hasn't even returned to Ottawa and all he does is answer every question with "when this government falls, we'll be ready to lead the country." Same answer for every question.
 
Bullfrog said:
Can't stand listening to Scheer. He hasn't even returned to Ottawa and all he does is answer every question with "when this government falls, we'll be ready to lead the country." Same answer for every question.

Like, what are you going to meaningfully do in the meantime apart from yelling at the Libs and NDP?
 
Talk about how he's going to work with the other parties to address the problems in Alberta and Sask, perhaps?
 
The fact that Scheer distanced himself from the Ontario Ford Conservatives largely due to their unpopularity does not necessarily mean that he doesn?t affiliate himself with similar opinions or policies on certain contentious issues such as abortion, LGBTQ rights, etc.

Scheer is close to ex-PM Harper and has attempted to present himself as ?different? even though that description is open to debate on the exact definition on what he would present.
More often than not, a leader may not associate oneself to any one ideal or policy of another counterpart and that alone doesn?t necessarily define the way one may go about circumventing the issue yet arriving at a sameness involving policy.

This attempts to illustrate:

Scheer is not Harper; nor is he Ford. But what both the Harper and Ford governments teach us is that politicians who espouse views like those held by Scheer tend to be closely connected to one another, not only because they make similar policy decisions but also because they surround themselves with similar people.

Much more than the Ford government, the Harper government shows us that a leader can promise not to re-open the abortion and same-sex marriage debates while still making policy decisions that undermine the rights of women and LGBTQ individuals.

So those who claim that Scheer?s positions on a woman?s right to choose and a same-sex couple?s right to marry are irrelevant so long as he refuses to re-open debate are missing the point.

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/09/27/To-Understand-Scheer-Look-To-Harper-Era/


Also:

...it is often pragmatic for political parties at different levels to maintain separation, because it allows them to pursue necessary policies in their jurisdiction, which might not be popular with the party at the other level. The following examples, noted by journalist John Ibbiston, illustrate this point well:

[t]he federation always worked best when opposite parties inhabited Queen?s Park and Parliament Hill. Frost and St. Laurent; Davis and Trudeau; even Peterson and Mulroney, at least on constitutional matters. Things always seemed to deteriorate, however, when identical parties were in both ministers? offices. John Diefenbaker had a testy relationship with Leslie Frost; Bill Davis?s relations with Brian Mulroney were far less cordial than with Pierre Trudeau. And there were the epic confrontations between Mitch Hepburn and McKenzie King.

http://www.ontla.on.ca/library/repository/mon/23008/294748.pdf


Ontario has tended to traditionally vote Liberal provincially and a Conservative federally:

Trudeau (Federal) 1971-1984 Lib  -  Davis (Provincial) 1971-1985 PC
Mulroney (Federal) 1984-1993  PC  - Peterson (Provincial) 1985-1990 Lib                                - Bob Rae (Provincial) 1990-1995  NDP
Chr?tien (Federal)  1993-2003  Lib  - Bob Rae  (Provincial) 1990-1995  NDP                                 
Paul Martin (Federal) 2003-2006 Lib  -Mike Harris (Provincial) 1995-2002  Con           
                                                    - Ernie Eves (Provincial) 2002-2003  Con
Stephen Harper (Federal) 2006-2014  Con - Dalton McGuinty (Provincial) 2003-2013  Lib
J. Trudeau (Federal) 2014-2019 Lib    - Kathleen Wynne (Provincial) 2013-2018 Lib
                                                      - Doug Ford (Provincial) 2018?  Con                                           
 
Nik Bethune said:
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
So, looking at the ON results maps, the northern areas are NDP/Green-ish?  Interesting.

The NDP started out as a Prairie/Farmer's party and they do have a pretty good rural/agrarian support as well as good support among indigenous voters.

Sudbury has always been a strong NDP community until the last couple elections. I've always felt it was the Unions in the mines that were keeping them in power.
 
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I'm always disappointed by Liberal governments who seem to be hopelessly corrupted by power. The Conservatives, god bless them, don't even need the power. That's market efficiency for you.
 
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