Federal Election 2019

[Kin]

That's where the nuances I was talking about come in. A liberal will spend more now in situations that a red Tory wouldn't thinking it's better in the long run for example. Add that to the liberals moving closer to the NDP as I said and it can make them a less than ideal option for a centralist.

Ok, so I guess I see what you're getting at, it may just be that we have a difference of perspectives. Because I really don't see the Liberals as moving closer to the NDP but rather the NDP moving closer to the Liberals. In fact, I feel like Trudeau's Liberals were actually to the Left of Mulcair's NDP on several things and at most Singh just sort of moved the NDP back to where they should be.

So I guess I'd say that for me, and where I am politically, I don't have an "ideal" option either but that the NDP tends to be the best of my options.

Without knowing exactly what you'd want out of a Red Tory that the Liberals don't provide I can't say to what extent I think it would actually shift votes but, you know, we all have to make compromises I suppose.

Let me try and explain why I think the liberals are left of centre this way. Picture a teeter totter. The liberals are a little left of the fulcrum, the NDP are half way down the arm and the greens are sitting in the left hand seat. The conservative are on the right past the seat, barely hanging on to the edge with their fingertips. Yes the liberals and NDP combine for the majority of votes but the conservatives are so much further right then they are left that the whole thing is still balanced.

I get it. It's the Centre defined as an objective political reality rather than, say, a median point of an electorate's viewpoints. I just think that fails to take into account how political stances naturally shift over time.

 

[groundskeeper willie]

That's where the nuances I was talking about come in. A liberal will spend more now in situations that a red Tory wouldn't thinking it's better in the long run for example. Add that to the liberals moving closer to the NDP as I said and it can make them a less than ideal option for a centralist.

Ok, so I guess I see what you're getting at, it may just be that we have a difference of perspectives. Because I really don't see the Liberals as moving closer to the NDP but rather the NDP moving closer to the Liberals. In fact, I feel like Trudeau's Liberals were actually to the Left of Mulcair's NDP on several things and at most Singh just sort of moved the NDP back to where they should be.

So I guess I'd say that for me, and where I am politically, I don't have an "ideal" option either but that the NDP tends to be the best of my options.

Without knowing exactly what you'd want out of a Red Tory that the Liberals don't provide I can't say to what extent I think it would actually shift votes but, you know, we all have to make compromises I suppose.

Let me try and explain why I think the liberals are left of centre this way. Picture a teeter totter. The liberals are a little left of the fulcrum, the NDP are half way down the arm and the greens are sitting in the left hand seat. The conservative are on the right past the seat, barely hanging on to the edge with their fingertips. Yes the liberals and NDP combine for the majority of votes but the conservatives are so much further right then they are left that the whole thing is still balanced.

I get it. It's the Centre defined as an objective political reality rather than, say, a median point of an electorate's viewpoints. I just think that fails to take into account how political stances naturally shift over time.

I agree the NDP have moved closer to centre than they used to be. I think that was done partly strategically to try and get more votes and partly because the emergence of the greens forced them to. Provincially the Wynne liberals and the NDP were practically stepping on each other at times.

I'm not sure what the solution is, but as others have said Canadians shouldn't be forced to hold their noses and vote liberal. And right now many of us are because only the liberals and conservatives realistically have a chance at forming a government and the just about the only thing that decides which one is how many votes the other left wing parties siphon off the liberals. Proportional representation might be the answer as then a dedicated red Tory party might make sense, but people need to be willing to accept constant minority and coalition governments and that would be a struggle for many, especially the hard right wingers who would have few natural allies.

 

[Frank E]

https://twitter.com/AndrewScheer/status/1184809125638791168

I'm going to wait to see what actually happened before I form an opinion, but in the meantime I'm trying to understand how I guy that was gunning to be PM would do something so stupid. 

 

[Frank E]

This WE thing is getting messy. Very bad look.

 

[Bullfrog]

I've been pretty sympathetic and think he's done a good job as prime minister. But at some point, really.... you have to wonder if he's got his head screwed on straight.

As a member of an elected council, the first thing I was required to do is have training on ethics, responsibilities, etc. Conflict of interest and -- for greater clarity -- PERCEPTION of conflict of interest is a major subject.

All he had to do was step out of the room. That's it.

 

[Frank E]

I've been pretty sympathetic and think he's done a good job as prime minister. But at some point, really.... you have to wonder if he's got his head screwed on straight.

As a member of an elected council, the first thing I was required to do is have training on ethics, responsibilities, etc. Conflict of interest and -- for greater clarity -- PERCEPTION of conflict of interest is a major subject.

All he had to do was step out of the room. That's it.

This is basic stuff.  Both Morneau and Trudeau should be absolutely blasted for this.

And really, Trudeau is a regular offender here. 

 

[Kin]

I've been pretty sympathetic and think he's done a good job as prime minister. But at some point, really.... you have to wonder if he's got his head screwed on straight.

Or you come to the conclusion when looking at the history of elected governments that to some extent ethical violations are the norm rather than the exception.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'm not sure that's really an "or" statement. They could easily go together.

Also, I'm not sure there's been an ethical violation. My "head screwed on straight" comment is more concerning the fact that he should have known this would cause a scandal and he should have left to avoid the perception of a conflict. As Frank said, this is basic stuff.

 

[Kin]

Fair enough. I don't entirely disagree outside of not being terribly shocked by ethics violations and thinking that not recusing himself may be dumb but it's not the real issue here.

 

[Hobbes]

I tend to assume that all governments at all levels will engage in a few things to pay back or reward their supporters, constituents, etc and as long as it's not overly egregious I don't pay it much heed. If they're using their position to line their own pockets I take a dimmer view of it, although I suspect a small amount of that is also likely too.

People in the governments of Trudeau Sr did it, of Mulroney did it, of Cretien did it, of Harper did it (I'll give Joe Clark, Paul Martin and Kim Campbell's staffs passes because they weren't in office long enough to do it) and it's not all that surprising that Trudeau's has too. As Bullfrog says, it's just as much about appearance as fact, too, and having only recently squeaked through with a minority government you'd think that people would be on their best behaviour. Apparently not.

I also can't help but wonder if this isn't a case of a mountain being made out of a mole hill simply because the Trudeau government's performance during the pandemic has been outstanding (not to say it couldn't have been better,  but it certainly hasn't been horrible) which has resulted in him gaining a lot in the polls, hence opposition parties are looking for any possible chinks in the armour to bring him back down a notch or two.

 

[LittleHockeyFan]

I will vote for my dog to become Prime Minister before I vote for Andrew effin' Scheer. Clean up your OWN house before you start bitching about Trudeau's, dude.

 

[bustaheims]

I will vote for my dog to become Prime Minister before I vote for Andrew effin' Scheer. Clean up your OWN house before you start bitching about Trudeau's, dude.

Yeah, there is that. This whole situation is not a good look for Trudeau, but until the Conservative party moves back towards the center, there just aren't a lot of good options for those of us who are more politically moderate.

 

[Kin]

I confess, I really don't understand why the Conservatives wouldn't want the party in the hands of a deputy right now. The Leader of the Opposition being someone who's got his own ethical issues and who the public has already passed on seems like an ineffective person to be trying to make this a big deal.

 

[bustaheims]

I confess, I really don't understand why the Conservatives wouldn't want the party in the hands of a deputy right now. The Leader of the Opposition being someone who's got his own ethical issues and who the public has already passed on seems like an ineffective person to be trying to make this a big deal.

Especially considering he announced he's stepping down from the position this past December. He's not going to be the face of the party moving forward, why use him as it now?

 

[Bates]

I will vote for my dog to become Prime Minister before I vote for Andrew effin' Scheer. Clean up your OWN house before you start bitching about Trudeau's, dude.

Leaving aside the fact that you don't vote for PM the Conservatives did win the popular vote last time even with a Dud as Leader.

 

[Kin]

I'm not sure how big a deal a plurality of the popular vote is when it barely shifted from the previous election and is still one of the worst Conservative showings in modern electoral history(only 2015 and 2004 were worse). Even the 1993 wipeout of the Conservatives saw the PC's + Reform get a higher % of the vote than Scheer won.

 

[Bates]

I'm not sure how big a deal a plurality of the popular vote is when it barely shifted from the previous election and is still one of the worst Conservative showings in modern electoral history(only 2015 and 2004 were worse). Even the 1993 wipeout of the Conservatives saw the PC's + Reform get a higher % of the vote than Scheer won.

Its not that big of a deal but it just kinda shows that outside of Toronto and Que not a lot of hatred for Scheer or the Conservatives.  Just as much disgust for Trudeau in the rest of the Country. FTR I am not a Scheer fan and had much more hope for Trudeau.

 

[Kin]

Its not that big of a deal but it just kinda shows that outside of Toronto and Que not a lot of hatred for Scheer or the Conservatives. 

Well, outside of Quebec the places where the Conservatives did the worst is actually Atlantic Canada and the Territories so they're not super popular in other areas of the Country.

Regardless I wouldn't necessarily use vote share to determine a level of "hatred" for a party or politician even if LHF isn't a big Scheer fan. As Busta notes, this was an election where a lot of people felt that neither party gave them a good option and I think a lot of Conservative/Liberal votes came in spite of the leaders rather than because of them. Whatever's going on in the prairie provinces, which is really the only cause for Scheer's slim plurarity, probably can't be attributed to people not liking Trudeau personally.

Unlike 2015 this wasn't a case of an unpopular Prime Minister losing to a new and exciting young upstart. This was a flagging PM with a bunch of baggage and the Conservatives still had one of their worst showings in history. If you want to say that's not a Scheer problem I'm not sure what you're left with outside of just most of Canada not being receptive to right wing politics in general.

 

[Kin]

Also, I'm not sure why Toronto gets singled out. The Conservatives didn't win anything in Vancouver either. Likewise, they didn't win in Winnipeg or Halifax. In fact, outside of Alberta and Saskatchewan, winning a seat in Thornhill and Markham is probably the closest thing the Conservatives had to doing well in a major city.

Whatever the problem is electorally for the Conservatives, it starts in cities.

 

[Bates]

Also, I'm not sure why Toronto gets singled out. The Conservatives didn't win anything in Vancouver either. Likewise, they didn't win in Winnipeg or Halifax. In fact, outside of Alberta and Saskatchewan, winning a seat in Thornhill and Markham is probably the closest thing the Conservatives had to doing well in a major city.

Whatever the problem is electorally for the Conservatives, it starts in cities.

Using what most people consider Vancouver, GVR, the Conservatives have 10 seats. The Liberals 11.