General Leafs Talk: Post-Olympics Edition

[bustaheims]

So now you've gone from a new coach coming in and helping shore up some areas in their defensive game, to propelling this Leafs squad into one of the best teams in the league? I honestly don't think so.

Did I say there was no difference? No. It's just not as big as their respective performances would indicate - especially since the Leafs have been getting superior goaltending and comparable offensive production. With a coach is a better fit, the Leafs probably have a relatively firm grasp on 2nd in the division right now.

 

[L K]

As far as I can tell, we've already tried changing the coach (a little over 2 years ago).  This team still can't find an effective defensive system with the personnel it has. The core of the team is still the same from Wilson to Carlyle (Kessel/Bozak/Lupul/Kulemin/Phaneuf/Gunnarsson).  Add to that our young core (Kadri/JVR/Gardiner/Reilly), are all offensive minded players to whom defense is an afterthought to their offensive gifts.  Sure McClement and Kulemin  understand what to do on the defensive side,(JVR is probably next on this list but he can be lazy at times) but other than that...there is not much of defensive mindedness.

The team two years ago didn't have Gardiner, Rielly, Kadri, JVR, Franson, Bernier+Reimer, Raymond. 

The Leafs went from a slow plodding team under Wilson:
Schenn, Komiarek, Armstrong, Dupuis, Steckel, Rosehill

Wilson played the team with an attacking style when they didn't have the combined speed to do it.  Now Carlyle wants a collapse and counter style with a team that would benefit from being aggressive.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

As far as I can tell, we've already tried changing the coach (a little over 2 years ago).  This team still can't find an effective defensive system with the personnel it has. The core of the team is still the same from Wilson to Carlyle (Kessel/Bozak/Lupul/Kulemin/Phaneuf/Gunnarsson).  Add to that our young core (Kadri/JVR/Gardiner/Reilly), are all offensive minded players to whom defense is an afterthought to their offensive gifts.  Sure McClement and Kulemin  understand what to do on the defensive side,(JVR is probably next on this list but he can be lazy at times) but other than that...there is not much of defensive mindedness.

I honestly don't know what to do with this team.  I still think they are good enough to make the playoffs - heck they still may gain home ice advantage, but there are glaring defensive systemic issues, that are not going to be changed solely with a change in coach.  It's probably both a change in core players and a change in coach and defensive philosophy.

What they did was take a team in 11-12 that, while not great, was not awful either.  The Leafs did not get consistently dominated possession-wise in that season.  They fired the coach when the real issue was the goaltending.  That team, by the possession metrics, was only slightly below average (Corsi-For % 48.9*) but their team SV% was .898.  Now? Their Corsi-For% is 43.6% (dead last) and their team SV% is .916.  So instead of being outshot by 208 in 11-12, Leafs are so far being outshot by 585 in 13-14.

*Corsi-For% - sum of a team's goals, shots on net, shots that miss the net, and shots that are blocked, expressed as a %.

So it's a situation where you've improved the goaltending but now you've made it necessary to receive elite goaltending in order to make the playoffs, whereas in 11-12 the Leafs were not getting dominated possession-wise like this and could have very likely made the playoffs with even league average goaltending.  The volume of shots the Leafs are giving up makes things much more difficult than it has to be.

If the core is still the same - why were they able to be so much more effective at possessing the puck and limiting chances in 11-12 compared with 13-14?  2011-12 roster

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Wilson played the team with an attacking style when they didn't have the combined speed to do it.  Now Carlyle wants a collapse and counter style with a team that would benefit from being aggressive.

Yeah, I always thought both coaches would have benefited from swapping rosters. Minus the huge goaltending problems Wilson had of course.

 

[Redleaf]

As far as I can tell, we've already tried changing the coach (a little over 2 years ago).  This team still can't find an effective defensive system with the personnel it has. The core of the team is still the same from Wilson to Carlyle (Kessel/Bozak/Lupul/Kulemin/Phaneuf/Gunnarsson).  Add to that our young core (Kadri/JVR/Gardiner/Reilly), are all offensive minded players to whom defense is an afterthought to their offensive gifts.  Sure McClement and Kulemin  understand what to do on the defensive side,(JVR is probably next on this list but he can be lazy at times) but other than that...there is not much of defensive mindedness.

The team two years ago didn't have Gardiner, Rielly, Kadri, JVR, Franson, Bernier+Reimer, Raymond. 

The Leafs went from a slow plodding team under Wilson:
Schenn, Komiarek, Armstrong, Dupuis, Steckel, Rosehill

Wilson played the team with an attacking style when they didn't have the combined speed to do it.  Now Carlyle wants a collapse and counter style with a team that would benefit from being aggressive.

I can see that argument. But I'd be concerned this club would still have the results that Wilson had playing that style, because both squads lack quality defensive d-men.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That sounds like you are suggesting that if the Leafs had a different coach, they'd have 95+ points right now.

5 extra wins would give the team 90 points and put them into the top echelon of the league. Do I think coaching (poor defensive strategies, poor penalty killing strategies, poor line-up decisions) cost this team 5 wins throughout this season? Yeah, probably.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Honestly, I don't believe the talent gap between the Ducks and the Leafs is as big as the performance gap between them. The real difference is that one team has a coach that plays to his team's strengths and the other has Carlyle.

That sounds like you are suggesting that if the Leafs had a different coach, they'd have 95+ points right now.

If they had a different coach who could get them to play a better possession game, that would keep the shots down - and with less shots on goal, with a team SV% of .916 it's very possible.

Take this for example - say the Leafs had a team CF% of 48.9% like they did in 2011-12.  The core is the same right?  So that shouldn't be impossible for this team to accomplish.  It would still be below average but not by much.  Team SH% that season was 10%, it's 9.8% this season, so basically the same.  Pk was 77.3%, PP was 18.4% - this year it's 78.3% & 20.4%.  Again, pretty similar.

That team in 2011-12, through 71 games would have allowed 2,188 shots on goal (this year it is 2,568, or a difference of about 380 shots against).  So far through 71 games this season, the Leafs have allowed 215 goals.  If the team had this year's goaltending of .916 SV% but played a better possession game to the point where the shots against were something like 2,188, the Leafs would have around 183 goals against. 

That's a difference of 32 goals.  I'd say that would go a long way towards 5 extra wins.

 

[bustaheims]

5 extra wins would give the team 90 points and put them into the top echelon of the league. Do I think coaching (poor defensive strategies, poor penalty killing strategies, poor line-up decisions) cost this team 5 wins throughout this season? Yeah, probably.

On top of that, they'd likely have closed out more games in regulation instead of going to OT or a shootout, so, there'd be a few less points sprinkled around the league and the Leafs would be in a much better position in terms of any potential tiebreaker.

 

[pmrules]

As far as I can tell, we've already tried changing the coach (a little over 2 years ago).  This team still can't find an effective defensive system with the personnel it has. The core of the team is still the same from Wilson to Carlyle (Kessel/Bozak/Lupul/Kulemin/Phaneuf/Gunnarsson).  Add to that our young core (Kadri/JVR/Gardiner/Reilly), are all offensive minded players to whom defense is an afterthought to their offensive gifts.  Sure McClement and Kulemin  understand what to do on the defensive side,(JVR is probably next on this list but he can be lazy at times) but other than that...there is not much of defensive mindedness.

The team two years ago didn't have Gardiner, Rielly, Kadri, JVR, Franson, Bernier+Reimer, Raymond. 

The Leafs went from a slow plodding team under Wilson:
Schenn, Komiarek, Armstrong, Dupuis, Steckel, Rosehill

Wilson played the team with an attacking style when they didn't have the combined speed to do it.  Now Carlyle wants a collapse and counter style with a team that would benefit from being aggressive.

I think you are kind of making my point.  All the *new* forwards/defensemen that Carlyle/Nonis/Burke have added are all offensive minded players.  The core is still the same (and the majority of them are offensive minded as well).

 

[pmrules]

As far as I can tell, we've already tried changing the coach (a little over 2 years ago).  This team still can't find an effective defensive system with the personnel it has. The core of the team is still the same from Wilson to Carlyle (Kessel/Bozak/Lupul/Kulemin/Phaneuf/Gunnarsson).  Add to that our young core (Kadri/JVR/Gardiner/Reilly), are all offensive minded players to whom defense is an afterthought to their offensive gifts.  Sure McClement and Kulemin  understand what to do on the defensive side,(JVR is probably next on this list but he can be lazy at times) but other than that...there is not much of defensive mindedness.

The team two years ago didn't have Gardiner, Rielly, Kadri, JVR, Franson, Bernier+Reimer, Raymond. 

The Leafs went from a slow plodding team under Wilson:
Schenn, Komiarek, Armstrong, Dupuis, Steckel, Rosehill

Wilson played the team with an attacking style when they didn't have the combined speed to do it.  Now Carlyle wants a collapse and counter style with a team that would benefit from being aggressive.

I can see that argument. But I'd be concerned this club would still have the results that Wilson had playing that style, because both squads lack quality defensive d-men.

I think maybe we have too many offensive minded defensemen who as great as they are on the offensive side, they just can't handle their own defensive zone to offset their risky behaviour?  Maybe you can get away with 2 in your top 6, but we currently have 3 who are great (?) on the offensive side but not great on the defensive side (Franson/Reilly/Gardiner) which puts undue pressure on the remaining defensemen to be super great defensively.

Maybe its' as simple as trading Franson+ for a mobile stay at home type type in the off season and allowing Gardiner and Reilly to roam as they wish.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

As far as I can tell, we've already tried changing the coach (a little over 2 years ago).  This team still can't find an effective defensive system with the personnel it has. The core of the team is still the same from Wilson to Carlyle (Kessel/Bozak/Lupul/Kulemin/Phaneuf/Gunnarsson).  Add to that our young core (Kadri/JVR/Gardiner/Reilly), are all offensive minded players to whom defense is an afterthought to their offensive gifts.  Sure McClement and Kulemin  understand what to do on the defensive side,(JVR is probably next on this list but he can be lazy at times) but other than that...there is not much of defensive mindedness.

The team two years ago didn't have Gardiner, Rielly, Kadri, JVR, Franson, Bernier+Reimer, Raymond. 

The Leafs went from a slow plodding team under Wilson:
Schenn, Komiarek, Armstrong, Dupuis, Steckel, Rosehill

Wilson played the team with an attacking style when they didn't have the combined speed to do it.  Now Carlyle wants a collapse and counter style with a team that would benefit from being aggressive.

I can see that argument. But I'd be concerned this club would still have the results that Wilson had playing that style, because both squads lack quality defensive d-men.

But Wilson had .898 SV% goaltending his final season, 2nd worst in the entire league.  If you have Bernier/Reimer back there, as I demonstrated in my reply above, you should expect different results.  The team has always been able to score, it was goaltending that held them back before, and now they're being held back by possession woes.  The goaltending is great but the sheer volume of shots is hurting the team.

 

[TML fan]

As far as I can tell, we've already tried changing the coach (a little over 2 years ago).  This team still can't find an effective defensive system with the personnel it has. The core of the team is still the same from Wilson to Carlyle (Kessel/Bozak/Lupul/Kulemin/Phaneuf/Gunnarsson).  Add to that our young core (Kadri/JVR/Gardiner/Reilly), are all offensive minded players to whom defense is an afterthought to their offensive gifts.  Sure McClement and Kulemin  understand what to do on the defensive side,(JVR is probably next on this list but he can be lazy at times) but other than that...there is not much of defensive mindedness.

The team two years ago didn't have Gardiner, Rielly, Kadri, JVR, Franson, Bernier+Reimer, Raymond. 

The Leafs went from a slow plodding team under Wilson:
Schenn, Komiarek, Armstrong, Dupuis, Steckel, Rosehill

Wilson played the team with an attacking style when they didn't have the combined speed to do it.  Now Carlyle wants a collapse and counter style with a team that would benefit from being aggressive.

I can see that argument. But I'd be concerned this club would still have the results that Wilson had playing that style, because both squads lack quality defensive d-men.

If you have the puck, the other team isn't scoring on you.

 

[TML fan]

As far as I can tell, we've already tried changing the coach (a little over 2 years ago).  This team still can't find an effective defensive system with the personnel it has. The core of the team is still the same from Wilson to Carlyle (Kessel/Bozak/Lupul/Kulemin/Phaneuf/Gunnarsson).  Add to that our young core (Kadri/JVR/Gardiner/Reilly), are all offensive minded players to whom defense is an afterthought to their offensive gifts.  Sure McClement and Kulemin  understand what to do on the defensive side,(JVR is probably next on this list but he can be lazy at times) but other than that...there is not much of defensive mindedness.

The team two years ago didn't have Gardiner, Rielly, Kadri, JVR, Franson, Bernier+Reimer, Raymond. 

The Leafs went from a slow plodding team under Wilson:
Schenn, Komiarek, Armstrong, Dupuis, Steckel, Rosehill

Wilson played the team with an attacking style when they didn't have the combined speed to do it.  Now Carlyle wants a collapse and counter style with a team that would benefit from being aggressive.

I think you are kind of making my point.  All the *new* forwards/defensemen that Carlyle/Nonis/Burke have added are all offensive minded players.  The core is still the same (and the majority of them are offensive minded as well).

And yet they stick with a coach that wants to play defence. It makes as much sense as giving Clarkson 5 million.

 

[Deebo]

Honestly, I don't believe the talent gap between the Ducks and the Leafs is as big as the performance gap between them. The real difference is that one team has a coach that plays to his team's strengths and the other has Carlyle.

That sounds like you are suggesting that if the Leafs had a different coach, they'd have 95+ points right now.

If they had a different coach who could get them to play a better possession game, that would keep the shots down - and with less shots on goal, with a team SV% of .916 it's very possible.

Take this for example - say the Leafs had a team CF% of 48.9% like they did in 2011-12.  The core is the same right?  So that shouldn't be impossible for this team to accomplish.  It would still be below average but not by much.  Team SH% that season was 10%, it's 9.8% this season, so basically the same.  Pk was 77.3%, PP was 18.4% - this year it's 78.3% & 20.4%.  Again, pretty similar.

That team in 2011-12, through 71 games would have allowed 2,188 shots on goal (this year it is 2,568, or a difference of about 380 shots against).  So far through 71 games this season, the Leafs have allowed 215 goals.  If the team had this year's goaltending of .916 SV% but played a better possession game to the point where the shots against were something like 2,188, the Leafs would have around 183 goals against. 

That's a difference of 32 goals.  I'd say that would go a long way towards 5 extra wins.

I disagree with the notion that SV% would remain constant if you change the style of play. I think that there are other factors besides the performance and ability of the goaltender that influence SV%.

This only based on memory, but I remember Wilson's teams going down early in games quite often. As we've seen in the past few games, when that happens, the shot totals at the end of the game aren't as lopsided.

I don't think that means the Leafs were playing better, just that the circumstances of the games doesn't see the opposition registering as many shots at the net after they gain the lead. They give up early goals, and then give up less shots when they were down so the team SV% is lower.

That's my recollection of Wilson era at least. I really don't think that you can say that if Wilson had Bernier, his teams would have been much better.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That's my recollection of Wilson era at least. I really don't think that you can say that if Wilson had Bernier, his teams would have been much better.

Maybe they wouldn't have given up all those early goals if they didn't have the worst goaltenders in the NHL?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Honestly, I don't believe the talent gap between the Ducks and the Leafs is as big as the performance gap between them. The real difference is that one team has a coach that plays to his team's strengths and the other has Carlyle.

That sounds like you are suggesting that if the Leafs had a different coach, they'd have 95+ points right now.

If they had a different coach who could get them to play a better possession game, that would keep the shots down - and with less shots on goal, with a team SV% of .916 it's very possible.

Take this for example - say the Leafs had a team CF% of 48.9% like they did in 2011-12.  The core is the same right?  So that shouldn't be impossible for this team to accomplish.  It would still be below average but not by much.  Team SH% that season was 10%, it's 9.8% this season, so basically the same.  Pk was 77.3%, PP was 18.4% - this year it's 78.3% & 20.4%.  Again, pretty similar.

That team in 2011-12, through 71 games would have allowed 2,188 shots on goal (this year it is 2,568, or a difference of about 380 shots against).  So far through 71 games this season, the Leafs have allowed 215 goals.  If the team had this year's goaltending of .916 SV% but played a better possession game to the point where the shots against were something like 2,188, the Leafs would have around 183 goals against. 

That's a difference of 32 goals.  I'd say that would go a long way towards 5 extra wins.

I disagree with the notion that SV% would remain constant if you change the style of play. I think that there are other factors besides the performance and ability of the goaltender that influence SV%.

This only based on memory, but I remember Wilson's teams going down early in games quite often. As we've seen in the past few games, when that happens, the shot totals at the end of the game aren't as lopsided.

I don't think that means the Leafs were playing better, just that the circumstances of the games doesn't see the opposition registering as many shots at the net after they gain the lead. They give up early goals, and then give up less shots when they were down so the team SV% is lower.

That's my recollection of Wilson era at least. I really don't think that you can say that if Wilson had Bernier, his teams would have been much better.

So allowing less shots would make their SV% lower?  You can't tell me that this Leafs team gives up less "quality" chances (as impossible as that is to track/quantify) than that Leafs team did.  We both know both iterations gave up a lot of high quality scoring chances to the opposition.

The only time Wilson had competent goaltending was when Reimer first came up in 2010-11.  In that season?  The Leafs had a team SV% of .921 at 5 on 5 - over 3,800 minutes worth of data.  Last season, the Leafs had a SV% of .924 in 2,272 minutes of 5 on 5.  This season the Leafs have a SV% of .930 in 3,238 minutes at 5 on 5.

That tells me that, whether it is Wilson or Carlyle, it really depends on having competent, quality goaltending to get a good SV% on the Leafs.  Reimer had his concussion issues in 2011-12, so for now that looks like an outlier in his career.

This Leafs team trails early in games too.  They've given up the 6th most 1st period goals in the league (as of March 17, 2014), and are -17 in the 1st period in goal differential.

When the Leafs are trailing this season, the opposition has 562 shots and the Leafs have 515.  The Leafs don't outshoot the opposition team in any period when they are trailing.

I think Bernier performs well for either coach.  I don't see any reason why he would not, and if there is any difference, it certainly wouldn't be extreme.

This link looks at Ron Wilson's effect on goalies.  This link looks at Randy Carlyle's effect on goalies.

Short answer: no effect to negligible, depending on how generous you are.

 

[caver]

I may not be the first one to wonder this but... how would the Leafs be if they had let Reimer go and gone with Bernier/Scrivens ?? 

 

[bustaheims]

I may not be the first one to wonder this but... how would the Leafs be if they had let Reimer go and gone with Bernier/Scrivens ?? 

Honestly, probably not all that different. Goaltending is way down at the bottom of the list of things the Leafs should be concerned about.

 

[L K]

I may not be the first one to wonder this but... how would the Leafs be if they had let Reimer go and gone with Bernier/Scrivens ?? 

Given that last year Reimer was much better than Scrivens...probably not at all.  Although I wonder if Scrivens is actually the better goaltender as a 20-30 game backup than Reimer.  Reimer strikes me as a guy who needs to be 1B at least to be successful at this point.

 

[bustaheims]

Given that last year Reimer was much better than Scrivens...probably not at all.  Although I wonder if Scrivens is actually the better goaltender as a 20-30 game backup than Reimer.  Reimer strikes me as a guy who needs to be 1B at least to be successful at this point.

I also wonder how much playing so many games behind the smothering defensive system in LA has helped him get into his current rhythm and helped him gain a level of confidence that's he's been able to ride though the dozen games he's played in Edmonton. The goaltending coach in LA also made some adjustments to Scrivens style and glove positioning. That's also had a positive impact, and he wouldn't have had that if he stayed here.