Goaltending Showdown - Reimer vs. Bernier

[Deebo]

So far, this season Reimer is facing ~5.75 shots per 60 minutes more than Bernier.

Sure, but, you know, sample size and all.

Yeah, I know.

 

[Corn Flake]

So far, this season Reimer is facing ~5.75 shots per 60 minutes more than Bernier.

Sure, but, you know, sample size and all.

I have a question though... so when does "small sample size" become big enough so we can reference stats and not have them dismissed? I'm, like trying to use numbers to back up opinions and stuff here.

I'm only being half sarcastic there.

 

[bustaheims]

I have a question though... so when does "small sample size" become big enough so we can reference stats and not have them dismissed? I'm, like trying to use numbers to back up opinions and stuff here.

I'm only being half sarcastic there.

Generally when one or two game don't have an excessive amount of influence on the overall picture. So, really, we're looking at around mid-season before sample size really stops being as issue (assuming both goalies play a similar number of games/minutes).

 

[Stickytape]

So far, this season Reimer is facing ~5.75 shots per 60 minutes more than Bernier.

Sure, but, you know, sample size and all.

I have a question though... so when does "small sample size" become big enough so we can reference stats and not have them dismissed? I'm, like trying to use numbers to back up opinions and stuff here.

I'm only being half sarcastic there.

Assuming that really wasn't a purely rhetorical question, you always have to keep sample size in mind; it's always a factor, to some extent.

For the record, too big a sample size can also be a problem.  For example, Martin Brodeur could let in 10 goals a game for his next 10 games and it wouldn't put a dent in his career GAA or SV%; if you want to evaluate how he's likely to do in, say, the rest of this season, you have to look at more recent numbers.  Surely his incredible career factors in, but only to a limited, proportionate extent.

So there isn't really a point where sample size doesn't matter, but there is a "sweet spot", so to speak.  The trouble is in getting everyone to agree just where that sweet spot lies.

 

[Tigger]

Reimnier, keeping calm...

He did well, but one thing you cannot say about his game is that it is calm.

Tonight I really noticed how many times he gave up a rebound, which he should have controlled, and that led to 2nd and 3rd chances. He is his own worst enemy and compared to Bernier it is not hard to see why the team wanted someone else in there.

I like Reimer and want him to do well - especially as a Leaf! - but his game is not the same as Bernier's

Joke's on me I guess.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

So far, this season Reimer is facing ~5.75 shots per 60 minutes more than Bernier.

Sure, but, you know, sample size and all.

I have a question though... so when does "small sample size" become big enough so we can reference stats and not have them dismissed? I'm, like trying to use numbers to back up opinions and stuff here.

I'm only being half sarcastic there.

Assuming that really wasn't a purely rhetorical question, you always have to keep sample size in mind; it's always a factor, to some extent.

For the record, too big a sample size can also be a problem.  For example, Martin Brodeur could let in 10 goals a game for his next 10 games and it wouldn't put a dent in his career GAA or SV%; if you want to evaluate how he's likely to do in, say, the rest of this season, you have to look at more recent numbers.  Surely his incredible career factors in, but only to a limited, proportionate extent.

So there isn't really a point where sample size doesn't matter, but there is a "sweet spot", so to speak.  The trouble is in getting everyone to agree just where that sweet spot lies.

It shouldn't be a problem, just qualify comments with the context you are using them in.  It's not a difficult concept for anyone on this forum.

 

[Corn Flake]

So there isn't really a point where sample size doesn't matter, but there is a "sweet spot", so to speak.  The trouble is in getting everyone to agree just where that sweet spot lies.

True, and that's always my challenge/fight with some who lean very heavily on stats and get waaaay too defensive about how they are/aren't used.  I find the target moves to suit their point many times. To me in almost all cases, stats should be used to verify/support what your eyes are seeing, if they can do that at all.  Not the other way around.

But say in the case of Reimer vs. Bernier in rebound control, the available stats can't directly answer that, but your eyes can and if you want to count on your fingers how many 2nd/3rd/4th chances each gives up, then go nuts.  Otherwise, it's up to your eyes. to see it.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

So there isn't really a point where sample size doesn't matter, but there is a "sweet spot", so to speak.  The trouble is in getting everyone to agree just where that sweet spot lies.

True, and that's always my challenge/fight with some who lean very heavily on stats and get waaaay too defensive about how they are/aren't used.  I find the target moves to suit their point many times. To me in almost all cases, stats should be used to verify/support what your eyes are seeing, if they can do that at all.  Not the other way around.

Again with this.  Did some stats advocate steal your lunch money or something!?

 

[Redleaf]

So there isn't really a point where sample size doesn't matter, but there is a "sweet spot", so to speak.  The trouble is in getting everyone to agree just where that sweet spot lies.

True, and that's always my challenge/fight with some who lean very heavily on stats and get waaaay too defensive about how they are/aren't used.  I find the target moves to suit their point many times. To me in almost all cases, stats should be used to verify/support what your eyes are seeing, if they can do that at all.  Not the other way around.

But say in the case of Reimer vs. Bernier in rebound control, the available stats can't directly answer that, but your eyes can and if you want to count on your fingers how many 2nd/3rd/4th chances each gives up, then go nuts.  Otherwise, it's up to your eyes. to see it.

Agreed. If statistical analysis in the markets, for instance, was all I needed to gain an edge in trading stocks, I'd have been a millionaire many many times over by now. Stats are a great measuring tool as reference points and high or low water marks, but you need to take into account other aspects, like common sense (or 'eyes' as CF put it) in order to gain a deeper perspective of whatever it is your trying to analyze.

 

[Kin]

So there isn't really a point where sample size doesn't matter, but there is a "sweet spot", so to speak.  The trouble is in getting everyone to agree just where that sweet spot lies.

True, and that's always my challenge/fight with some who lean very heavily on stats and get waaaay too defensive about how they are/aren't used.  I find the target moves to suit their point many times. To me in almost all cases, stats should be used to verify/support what your eyes are seeing, if they can do that at all.  Not the other way around.

That strikes me as kind of a troubling attitude. If something challenges your pre-conceived notions it shouldn't be dismissed on that basis alone. If we're trying new ways to look at and analyze the game, which is a worthy goal even if there are false starts, then we have to be prepared for the fact that our eyes often do lie to us or, at the very least, are bad at processing the wealth of data we have when filtered through our biases.

 

[Redleaf]

I wonder if Bernier's loss to Columbus and Reimer's solid win tonight against the Pens fires up the debate again?

 

[dappleganger]

I wonder if Bernier's loss to Columbus and Reimer's solid win tonight against the Pens fires up the debate again?

Reimer isn't going down without a fight.

Bernier for Yakupov?

 

[bustaheims]

I wonder if Bernier's loss to Columbus and Reimer's solid win tonight against the Pens fires up the debate again?

Bernier hasn't looked all that impressive since he shut out the the Preds, so, I'd say most definitely.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It'll be tough to see since we're going into another back-to-back situation so both goalies will play at least one game, but Reimer should be ahead in the rotation right now obviously.

 

[Stickytape]

So, why is it that we need a #1 goalie again?  Because I love this pairing.

 

[Kin]

I wonder if Bernier's loss to Columbus and Reimer's solid win tonight against the Pens fires up the debate again?

I don't feel like "the debate" is ever going to really go away this year. One guy may get hot for a while and keep the other on the bench but all goalies are going to have bad games and at that point the other guy is going to get a look. I think people are looking at this with too much emphasis on the idea that it's a competition and less as simply trying to make a go of it with two competent goaltenders. Sure, at some point the team is probably going to have to go with one or another but that doesn't make this season just an extended audition for that.

 

[Redleaf]

I wonder if Bernier's loss to Columbus and Reimer's solid win tonight against the Pens fires up the debate again?

I don't feel like "the debate" is ever going to really go away this year. One guy may get hot for a while and keep the other on the bench but all goalies are going to have bad games and at that point the other guy is going to get a look. I think people are looking at this with too much emphasis on the idea that it's a competition and less as simply trying to make a go of it with two competent goaltenders. Sure, at some point the team is probably going to have to go with one or another but that doesn't make this season just an extended audition for that.

Kinda does. I mean, unless they plan on keeping both goalies beyond this year, than one will be shipped out, right? Don't matter how you emphasis it, it's a pretty fierce survival competition to 'stay on the island'.

 

[L K]

There certainly should be competition.  Both goalies have outstanding numbers.

Bernier - 2.34 GAA .930 SV%
Reimer - 2.56 GAA .933 SV%

Bernier is 5-4 on the year and Reimer is 3-0.  Reimer however was pulled from the Ottawa game and was injured in the Carolina game.  Reimer was good in his three wins.  Bernier was good in most games but not so great in the Carolina and Columbus losses.

Two goalies with numbers that good and both being young.  You shouldn't declare an outright number 1 this early in the year.

 

[Kin]

Kinda does. I mean, unless they plan on keeping both goalies beyond this year, than one will be shipped out, right? Don't matter how you emphasis it, it's a pretty fierce survival competition to 'stay on the island'.

No. I mean, yeah, if there comes a point where the Leafs have to make that decision then they'll use what they see from here on in to determine which way they lean but until that actually happens trying to win with two goaltenders getting roughly equal time is just a viable strategy that a lot of good teams have used over the years.

Regardless of what happens this year though, unless one guy wins the next 20 games with a .950 sv percentage, they're probably going to just use that strategy in an attempt to win as many games as possible this year and worry about deciding between them in a permanent sense when they actually cross that bridge.

 

[Leafaholic99]

Loving this friendly competition, it should only push each other to be better, and the team overall will benefit from it.