Jake Gardiner signs with Carolina [4 years, $4.05mil AAV]

[CarltonTheBear]

I thought there was talk that he would've went to arbitration, would've been awarded more than QO and we'd walk away.

Right this was the general theory most fans had as the easy way the Leafs could have gotten out of his deal. But look at it from Ceci's perspective. Why would he risk going to arbitration to only get maybe a $0.5-1mil raise on a 1-year deal when it also opens up the possibility of the Leafs walking away and making him a free agent? Ceci and his agent know that playing for the Leafs this season is the absolute best thing that could happen to rejuvenate his career. He never would have gone the arbitration route and risked giving that up.

Either way paying him over QO is an overpayment.

Yeah, that Leafs signed him for $200k more than what his qualifying offer was for. I don't really get why they didn't just stand firm at making him take the QO instead. But I'm not going to lose much sleep over that.

 

[herman]

I will say good bye and good luck. As for the Leafs defense, I am very happy with it.

What's interesting is that next year they have all of these defensemen under contract:

Morgan Rielly.
+ Liljegren
+ Sandin
+ Hollowell

They've got to build almost a whole defense group. Will be interesting to see if Muzzin or Barrie re-sign in TO. I'll assume Dermott will re-sign.

Not only that, but

Morgan Rielly. +Dermott +UFA
+ Liljegren (exempt from Expansion Draft)
+ Sandin (exempt from Expansion Draft)
+ Hollowell (might be exempt from Expansion Draft)

 

[herman]

Either way paying him over QO is an overpayment.

Yeah, that Leafs signed him for $200k more than what his qualifying offer was for. I don't really get why they didn't just stand firm at making him take the QO instead. But I'm not going to lose much sleep over that.

They're going to Phanesse a deadline deal.

Wow, the Leafs, a smart and successful young team, wanted Ceci. Look at all these points he got, nevermind the cushiest on-the-fly starts just knocking pucks free for Rielly and Matthews/Nylander, and occasionally hammering a low-high cycle pass off a skate and in.

 

[mr grieves]

I believe they could have walked away from QO? I think you could find someone to take 1yr of Ceci.

No, they couldn't have walked away. Wasn't an option.

Maybe they could have found a taker, maybe not. Without taking anything back? I'm not so sure they could have.

It's true that with the QO, the Leafs were pretty much stuck signing Ceci because there'd be little chance of him taking arbitration to point where the Leafs could walk away (he'd just sign the QO).

But the theory I recall hearing, and don't understand why the Dubas didn't explore, was the Leafs using their financial might to offer him a big signing bonus and then moving the contract to a team with cap space but little interest in paying him the full freight.

Would that have led to a Gardiner extension? It seems to me the consideration is less this season than years 2, 3, 4, etc. Looks like the Leafs think they have better (younger, cheaper) options at LHD.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Wow, the Leafs, a smart and successful young team, wanted Ceci. Look at all these points he got, nevermind the cushiest on-the-fly starts just knocking pucks free for Rielly and Matthews/Nylander, and occasionally hammering a low-high cycle pass off a skate and in.

Let's not kid ourselves, Babcock is going to play him 1) a lot and 2) in key roles.

 

[herman]

Wow, the Leafs, a smart and successful young team, wanted Ceci. Look at all these points he got, nevermind the cushiest on-the-fly starts just knocking pucks free for Rielly and Matthews/Nylander, and occasionally hammering a low-high cycle pass off a skate and in.

Let's not kid ourselves, Babcock is going to play him 1) a lot and 2) in key roles.

But that?s not what Dubas said, but yes I agree with you. Lots of minutes, but still curated. Babcock will stress test early but it?s apparent once he starts to shelter the player.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/CanesNHL/status/1170049970860449793

I'm a Caniac now.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

But that?s not what Dubas said, but yes I agree with you.

What did Dubas say about this?

 

[herman]

But that?s not what Dubas said, but yes I agree with you.

What did Dubas say about this?

He felt like there's lots of potential in Ceci because of the situation in Ottawa: playing too much and too high in the lineup without support.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2019/07/03/kyle-dubas-speaks-in-depth-on-tyson-barrie-alex-kerfoot-cody-ceci-and-the-mitch-marner-negotiations/

Dubas: With Cody, we went back and really studied him when Ottawa was making their run a few years ago. The last couple of years, part of it goes into the circumstances of him taking on really, really difficult assignments. When we looked at it, we said, ?Okay, we can bring him in here and pair him with either Morgan or Jake [Muzzin] or Travis Dermott when Travis Dermott is healthy, and have him with a partner that can really move the puck very effectively and efficiently. We know that he is a big, strong guy down low. We think we could make some improvements with him.

 

[Highlander]

Signed a 4 year 16 mill deal, always liked him, and glad he now has real financial security. 8)

 

[princedpw]

That is a magnificent deal.

Yeah. Wow.  I wish we had him at this price.  Next year when Barrie and Muzzin ask for double this price, we'll wish we had him even more.

 

[cujo4ever]

I've always liked Jakie too. Seems like a pretty reasonable deal for the offense he brings. I thought he'd get at least 5 mil per year. Maybe that back is in rough shape.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1170035448535822337

 

[hockeyfan1]

Wishing Gardiner all the best in Carolina.

He?s going to be pretty good there just as when he was playing well with the Leafs (minus the flaws, of course).

 

[Stebro]

That's a steal for Carolina, I don't really want to give crap to a new leaf, but Gardiner at that contract or Ceci? Definately Gardiner.

 

[Coco-puffs]

That's a steal for Carolina, I don't really want to tgive crap to a new leaf, but Gardiner at that contract or Ceci? Definately Gardiner.

As someone who thinks Ceci will be better than his numbers in Ottawa suggest- ya I still take Gardiner every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

If I were to guess, that would have been Dubas' preferred choice as well but he's got Babcock's preferences to contend with (players playing strong side and guys to kill penalties) and probably a picture of how the D-corps looks a few years out and fits under the cap and Gardiner a couple of years from now might not fit that.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I think early off season prices weren?t at the number he was hoping for, which would?ve been the information the Leafs had prior to now.

New Jersey missed out here.

I think Gardiner held out for too long and priced himself out of a contract that could have been a little richer.

The Leafs don't get Gardiner at 4.05 earlier in the offseason. Now they don't have room to take on 4 million. Actually, they didn't have room then either.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/jgardiner272/status/1170079081079197696
*plays Sarah McLachlan on repeat*

 

[herman]

There?s still time for this to shake out:

Slavin-Hamilton
Gardiner-Pesce
Fleury-Faulk
Forsling-TvR

Their entire top 4 need to be protected for the expansion draft. Faulk and TvR will be UFA. None of Forsling, Fleury, or Bean are exempt.

The Leafs, on the other hand, as mentioned earlier, are set for Expansion. The worst they?d be losing is... Moore or Hyman. Or Bracco? Lindgren? Mikheyev?

 

[Coco-puffs]

There?s still time for this to shake out:

Slavin-Hamilton
Gardiner-Pesce
Fleury-Faulk
Forsling-TvR

Their entire top 4 need to be protected for the expansion draft. Faulk and TvR will be UFA. None of Forsling, Fleury, or Bean are exempt.

The Leafs, on the other hand, as mentioned earlier, are set for Expansion. The worst they?d be losing is... Moore or Hyman. Or Bracco? Lindgren? Mikheyev?

You are off by a year.  Expansion draft is before 2021-2022 season.  Faulk will most likely be gone, TvR would need a new deal (and probably wouldn't be protected anyways).  Hamilton would be a UFA.  So they could protect Slavin, Pesce, and Gardiner.  If someone else needs protecting, I'm pretty sure they'll be fine with leaving Gardiner unprotected