Jake Gardiner signs with Carolina [4 years, $4.05mil AAV]

[herman]

All year long there were reports that despite the Leafs cap situation Gardiner was still interested in working something out with the Leafs. Did that necessarily mean 4 million per? No but it's a pretty good indication that a team friendly deal could have been worked out and in the scenario I'm talking about Gardiner at 5 or 5.5 million isn't much different from than Gardiner at 4.

Regardless though the graveyard of Leafs GMs is full of tombstones whose epitaphs read "But it seemed like a good idea at the time". If Dubas wants to keep himself in fancy check patterned dress shirts he'll have to get used to being judged on results and this looks like his first real stinker.

Can you elaborate on how this is a Dubas stinker?

From my perspective, Dubas cut the Zaitsev term down to 1 year, hedged to cover the eventual loss of Gardiner due to being priced out in the face of Marner?s deal (with both Marleau and Zaitsev cap hits looming) at the same time as bolstering a playoff drive (seriously Gardiner was battling that injury already and Muzzin is the reason we got as far as we did and it?s have been the Habs in the playoffs instead).

Gardiner, regardless of final AAV, was clearly looking for term (he said many teams offered 1-2 yrs). On top of having a PK option this year, I think the Leafs are really well set up to come into the following season (and expansion draft) really just making one choice between Muzzin/Barrie, or even bypassing that if Marlies D kicks in higher than expected. A recovering Gardiner on 3 years left vs a slightly younger Barrie for long term? Or at least the option to buy a UFA defenseman (Pietrangelo)?

 

[Kin]

Can you elaborate on how this is a Dubas stinker?

Any more than I already have? Not really. The short term of it is that the Leafs aren't significantly better positioned defensively than they would have been by just retaining Gardiner and they paid a hefty price for Muzzin to be running in circles.

I guess Lamoriello's mentorship of Dubas imparted the thinking that a brief playoff appearance is worth making bad long term deals but as I said earlier a lot of the reason for the cap trouble is that the drafts have yielded such poor results(and before you blame Hunter or Lamoriello for that, you were pretty quick to ascribe the drafting of 5'7 34 year olds to brilliant Moneyball-esque gamesmanship while they were happening).

The Zaitsev/Ceci thing isn't particularly relevant but to the extent that it is, the Leafs added a "PK option" only in the sense as I've said that they've added someone who's established himself as a key player on terrible PKs and it's debatable as to whether or not they had to keep him at all. What Gardiner was "clearly looking for" probably didn't apply here as it's pretty evident he very much wanted to be a Leaf and, quite frankly, he'd probably be a better PK option than Ceci anyway.

So, again, the Leafs are basically where they would be defensively if they hadn't made any trades(aside from Kadri/Barrie) but they significantly depleted an already weak prospect base to get here.

 

[herman]

I appreciate your taking the time to respond and helping me check my Dubas-homer bias.

I?m still pretty high on the 2015 options percolating in the system but you?re right in that they?re not viable NHL options today, especially not on defense from 2016-17.

 

[Bender]

Can you elaborate on how this is a Dubas stinker?

Any more than I already have? Not really. The short term of it is that the Leafs aren't significantly better positioned defensively than they would have been by just retaining Gardiner and they paid a hefty price for Muzzin to be running in circles.

I guess Lamoriello's mentorship of Dubas imparted the thinking that a brief playoff appearance is worth making bad long term deals but as I said earlier a lot of the reason for the cap trouble is that the drafts have yielded such poor results(and before you blame Hunter or Lamoriello for that, you were pretty quick to ascribe the drafting of 5'7 34 year olds to brilliant Moneyball-esque gamesmanship while they were happening).

The Zaitsev/Ceci thing isn't particularly relevant but to the extent that it is, the Leafs added a "PK option" only in the sense as I've said that they've added someone who's established himself as a key player on terrible PKs and it's debatable as to whether or not they had to keep him at all. What Gardiner was "clearly looking for" probably didn't apply here as it's pretty evident he very much wanted to be a Leaf and, quite frankly, he'd probably be a better PK option than Ceci anyway.

So, again, the Leafs are basically where they would be defensively if they hadn't made any trades(aside from Kadri/Barrie) but they significantly depleted an already weak prospect base to get here.

I feel like the old LD/RD dogma reared its head here. You have to wonder if this is just a bone thrown to Babcock.

 

[Frank E]

Can you elaborate on how this is a Dubas stinker?

Any more than I already have? Not really. The short term of it is that the Leafs aren't significantly better positioned defensively than they would have been by just retaining Gardiner and they paid a hefty price for Muzzin to be running in circles.

I guess Lamoriello's mentorship of Dubas imparted the thinking that a brief playoff appearance is worth making bad long term deals but as I said earlier a lot of the reason for the cap trouble is that the drafts have yielded such poor results(and before you blame Hunter or Lamoriello for that, you were pretty quick to ascribe the drafting of 5'7 34 year olds to brilliant Moneyball-esque gamesmanship while they were happening).

The Zaitsev/Ceci thing isn't particularly relevant but to the extent that it is, the Leafs added a "PK option" only in the sense as I've said that they've added someone who's established himself as a key player on terrible PKs and it's debatable as to whether or not they had to keep him at all. What Gardiner was "clearly looking for" probably didn't apply here as it's pretty evident he very much wanted to be a Leaf and, quite frankly, he'd probably be a better PK option than Ceci anyway.

So, again, the Leafs are basically where they would be defensively if they hadn't made any trades(aside from Kadri/Barrie) but they significantly depleted an already weak prospect base to get here.

I feel like the old LD/RD dogma reared its head here. You have to wonder if this is just a bone thrown to Babcock.

That's a pretty huge risk in Ceci to just throw a bone at Babcock.

I think there's probably real pressure from Dubas' boss, and his boss' bosses, to get the roster sorted out after losing in the first round 2 years in a row.

MLSE made significant investments in people and process to find, develop, and deliver more NHL talent to the roster.  It hasn't produced much yet...as mentioned, 2016 doesn't look like much, but 2017 is looking worse at the moment.  The Leafs' roster of d-men could really use some nice manageable ELC guys that can contribute to, at the very least, the PK. If they graduated someone like that, they wouldn't need to spend $4.5m on a guy that isn't worth anywhere near that kind of cap allocation. 

It just looks like he/they mismanaged their assets here on the defensemen re-do, and I really think that Ceci has a bulls-eye on his chest as a result, which is the last thing that he needs at this point.

 

[herman]

I feel like the old LD/RD dogma reared its head here. You have to wonder if this is just a bone thrown to Babcock.

Because I?m bored:

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/03/04/quantifying-the-importance-of-handedness/

It?s still important. Not at the outright expense of playing a lesser talent, but a talented player on his offside is going to manifest as a lesser player. As Carlton posted previously, there aren?t really any top teams not running L-R in their top 4. Just basic stuff (put usually performed under pressure) like picking the puck off the board at the blue line or shielding a puck behind the net, it takes extra time players really don?t have anymore. There were so many times we?d beg Hainsey to make a play when the puck got back to him at then point but he just had no time but to dump it in deep.

 

[dappleganger]

Can you elaborate on how this is a Dubas stinker?

Any more than I already have? Not really. The short term of it is that the Leafs aren't significantly better positioned defensively than they would have been by just retaining Gardiner and they paid a hefty price for Muzzin to be running in circles.

I guess Lamoriello's mentorship of Dubas imparted the thinking that a brief playoff appearance is worth making bad long term deals but as I said earlier a lot of the reason for the cap trouble is that the drafts have yielded such poor results(and before you blame Hunter or Lamoriello for that, you were pretty quick to ascribe the drafting of 5'7 34 year olds to brilliant Moneyball-esque gamesmanship while they were happening).

The Zaitsev/Ceci thing isn't particularly relevant but to the extent that it is, the Leafs added a "PK option" only in the sense as I've said that they've added someone who's established himself as a key player on terrible PKs and it's debatable as to whether or not they had to keep him at all. What Gardiner was "clearly looking for" probably didn't apply here as it's pretty evident he very much wanted to be a Leaf and, quite frankly, he'd probably be a better PK option than Ceci anyway.

So, again, the Leafs are basically where they would be defensively if they hadn't made any trades(aside from Kadri/Barrie) but they significantly depleted an already weak prospect base to get here.

I feel like the old LD/RD dogma reared its head here. You have to wonder if this is just a bone thrown to Babcock.

That's a pretty huge risk in Ceci to just throw a bone at Babcock.

I think there's probably real pressure from Dubas' boss, and his boss' bosses, to get the roster sorted out after losing in the first round 2 years in a row.

MLSE made significant investments in people and process to find, develop, and deliver more NHL talent to the roster.  It hasn't produced much yet...as mentioned, 2016 doesn't look like much, but 2017 is looking worse at the moment.  The Leafs' roster of d-men could really use some nice manageable ELC guys that can contribute to, at the very least, the PK. If they graduated someone like that, they wouldn't need to spend $4.5m on a guy that isn't worth anywhere near that kind of cap allocation. 

It just looks like he/they mismanaged their assets here on the defensemen re-do, and I really think that Ceci has a bulls-eye on his chest as a result, which is the last thing that he needs at this point.

*3 years in a row. 

 

[mr grieves]

Also, let's not mince words about it. If it comes down to Gardiner vs. Muzzin, I can see arguments either way. Personally, I might come down slightly in favour of Muzzin.

If it's a 1st round pick and Durzi and Grundstrom and Gardiner at 4 million per vs. Muzzin at whatever it'll take to get him signed? Then choosing Muzzin is right up there with the terrible GMing calls in Leafs history.

Yes, this.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/jfchaumontjdm/status/1171048294686048257

Love you, Jake.

 

[herman]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/9/6/20682213/why-did-the-maple-leafs-pick-cody-ceci-over-jake-gardiner

 

[mr grieves]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/9/6/20682213/why-did-the-maple-leafs-pick-cody-ceci-over-jake-gardiner

Doesn't address loading the contract with a hefty signing bonus and then trading him to another team that has the cap space and wants a $2m (or whatever) former first rounder. That would've freed up cash enough to make an offer to Gardiner that would've been competitive with, likely better than, what he ultimately signed for.

Once they signed a deal that committed them to playing Ceci for the year, they did pick him over Gardiner and none of the Zaitsev contract, Ceci's agent, or arbitration and QO rules had anything to do with it.

So why? 
1. LH/RH balance (bad reason)
2. Desire to keep D salaries low in 2020-21 forward (true, those are some pricey forwards), requiring...
3. Belief that Gardiner is redundant/extravagant with Sandin/Liljegren coming along and ready to take top-4 positions next season (seems unlikely! But they know their farm better'n I do, so... maybe?)

Some of those might be good reasons to suffer Ceci for a season, but, even then, there's the bad asset management Nik outlined above.

 

[moon111]

Ceci didn't have a team to play a bunch of tic-tac-toe plays with.  He had more 1st assists then Gardiner last season. 
He had almost twice the amount of shots on net and hits.  Granted Ceci played a dozen more games, but the flip side is, Ceci drew
the hardest assignments in his own end and should be a much strong presence.  And I think the team will be more optimistic come
playoff time with Ceci then they would with Gardiner.  Definitely know which one I'd choose to hold a lead in the third period of a
game 7.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/alexandrepratt/status/1171373847079243776

Reporter from Montreal saying that Gardiner turned down $5.25mil x 3 years from the Habs.

 

[Coco-puffs]

As my friend said when i told him about that news.... fuck the habs

 

[herman]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/9/6/20682213/why-did-the-maple-leafs-pick-cody-ceci-over-jake-gardiner

Doesn't address loading the contract with a hefty signing bonus and then trading him to another team that has the cap space and wants a $2m (or whatever) former first rounder. That would've freed up cash enough to make an offer to Gardiner that would've been competitive with, likely better than, what he ultimately signed for.

The player has to want to sign the deal, and I think he knows his best shot to put up numbers is here. And he has an agent, who knows the ramifications of a trade friendly deal. And the Leafs deal with this agent regularly so it does not behoove them to openly shaft his client. Like Katya outlined, there's a cost to jettisoning a player, if not in asset capital then in reputation.

In the long run, the Leafs still need veteran cheapos willing to take league min for a year or two. Players and their agents take note of how an organization deals with their business.

 

[Frank E]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/9/6/20682213/why-did-the-maple-leafs-pick-cody-ceci-over-jake-gardiner

Doesn't address loading the contract with a hefty signing bonus and then trading him to another team that has the cap space and wants a $2m (or whatever) former first rounder. That would've freed up cash enough to make an offer to Gardiner that would've been competitive with, likely better than, what he ultimately signed for.

The player has to want to sign the deal, and I think he knows his best shot to put up numbers is here. And he has an agent, who knows the ramifications of a trade friendly deal. And the Leafs deal with this agent regularly so it does not behoove them to openly shaft his client. Like Katya outlined, there's a cost to jettisoning a player, if not in asset capital then in reputation.

In the long run, the Leafs still need veteran cheapos willing to take league min for a year or two. Players and their agents take note of how an organization deals with their business.

I'm convinced that Dubas actually wants Ceci to play for the Leafs, for better or worse.  But I'm not sure suggesting that Ceci's best opportunity is with the Leafs is accurate at all...and trading a player isn't shafting him.

 

[Frank E]

Gardiner gets a hard enough time from Leaf fans...I'm sure he could imagine how tough habs fans would be on him.

 

[herman]

Reporter from Montreal saying that Gardiner turned down $5.25mil x 3 years from the Habs.

As my friend said when i told him about that news.... Frig the habs

I think it'd be better if Bergevin stopped telling everyone how much he's trying because it's just showing them how many players don't want to be there.

 

[herman]

I'm convinced that Dubas actually wants Ceci to play for the Leafs, for better or worse.  But I'm not sure suggesting that Ceci's best opportunity is with the Leafs is accurate at all...and trading a player isn't shafting him.

How is Toronto not Ceci's best landing spot to rebuild a career? Ottawa has been shopping him for years. He gets to come into a place with known defensive depth issues in his exact role and pass the puck to Nylander, Matthews, Tavares, Marner (maybe) on a regular basis.

Manufacturing a way to walk away from Ceci's QO is shafting him. Accepting a trade for him and then turning around and trading him again at what will amount to be a loss before the season even starts is shafting him, regardless of the taker.

 

[Frank E]

I'm convinced that Dubas actually wants Ceci to play for the Leafs, for better or worse.  But I'm not sure suggesting that Ceci's best opportunity is with the Leafs is accurate at all...and trading a player isn't shafting him.

How is Toronto not Ceci's best landing spot to rebuild a career? Ottawa has been shopping him for years. He gets to come into a place with known defensive depth issues in his exact role and pass the puck to Nylander, Matthews, Tavares, Marner (maybe) on a regular basis.

Manufacturing a way to walk away from Ceci's QO is shafting him. Accepting a trade for him and then turning around and trading him again at what will amount to be a loss before the season even starts is shafting him, regardless of the taker.

They're paying him the money, herman.  He's not getting shafted in that scenario unless you think that for some reason NOT playing for the Leafs is getting shafted. 

There are many opportunities in the league for a guy like Ceci, and I'd argue that being under the spotlight of Leaf fans might be worse for him, given his very public history of lousy play.

I'd think a nice top-4 job with a southern US team might be just what the doctor ordered.