Kessel scores how many?

[CarltonTheBear]

I think I need a Kessel Conn Smythe victory.

Right now his only competitor is Matt Murray. So we need Murray to put up one stinker that gets him pulled for Fleury who will lead the Penguins to the Cup while Phil keeps scoring. That way 1) Phil wins the Conn Smyth, 2) the Pens will feel they can't get rid of Fleury because he's more "clutch" or something, and 3) we can then trade for Matt Murray.

 

[L K]

1) I'm all in on Kessel for Conn Smythe

2) I hope this shows how the only thing that really matters come trade time is just elemental economic theory. Pittsburgh was the perfect situation for Kessel. He can be the fourth or fifth banana and be a huge contributor. Pittsburgh's deal was great for them and now it's playing out that way.

But the Leafs had one suitor and had to make the deal they made. I still like the return for the Leafs, it was a fair deal, but there has to be a market for players to get a good return. I really hope some of the "Why should we trade player X? He's good and has a good contract!" folk will absorb that.

Yeah, the Leafs weren't trading Phil Kessel the playoff superstar.  They were trading Phil Kessel the 60 point guy who played zero defense, was ambivalent toward "traditional" conditioning and had an absolutely toxic relationship with the organization.  Kessel needed to be traded and it would have been great to grab a 2nd 1st round pick, or a higher end prospect along with Kapanen but the team is what it is.  I wish we still had him because I like Phil and I hate that our media is the pile of trash that it is.  I wonder if things were different if we had a coach who actually stood up for his players in the media?  Carlyle was an ass far too often I felt and Horachek was clearly brought in to burn down the fort.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Lightning coach Cooper on Kessel:

?When you look at their team, Phil Kessel probably doesn?t get near the respect he deserves,? Lightning coach Jon Cooper said after Wednesday?s 4-2 loss. ?I mean, he?s scored a ton of goals in this league.?

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/phil-kessel-remaking-image-hockeys-biggest-stage/

All the best to Phil in these playoffs, and if he wins the Stanley Cup, he'll be the one doing the laughing, right Ovie?!

 

[herman]

I think I need a Kessel Conn Smythe victory.

Right now his only competitor is Matt Murray. So we need Murray to put up one stinker that gets him pulled for Fleury who will lead the Penguins to the Cup while Phil keeps scoring. That way 1) Phil wins the Conn Smyth, 2) the Pens will feel they can't get rid of Fleury because he's more "clutch" or something, and 3) we can then trade for Matt Murray.

I'll have whatever you're having.

 

[mr grieves]

1) I'm all in on Kessel for Conn Smythe

2) I hope this shows how the only thing that really matters come trade time is just elemental economic theory. Pittsburgh was the perfect situation for Kessel. He can be the fourth or fifth banana and be a huge contributor. Pittsburgh's deal was great for them and now it's playing out that way.

But the Leafs had one suitor and had to make the deal they made. I still like the return for the Leafs, it was a fair deal, but there has to be a market for players to get a good return. I really hope some of the "Why should we trade player X? He's good and has a good contract!" folk will absorb that.

Yeah, the Leafs weren't trading Phil Kessel the playoff superstar.  They were trading Phil Kessel the 60 point guy who played zero defense, was ambivalent toward "traditional" conditioning and had an absolutely toxic relationship with the organization.  Kessel needed to be traded and it would have been great to grab a 2nd 1st round pick, or a higher end prospect along with Kapanen but the team is what it is.  I wish we still had him because I like Phil and I hate that our media is the pile of trash that it is.  I wonder if things were different if we had a coach who actually stood up for his players in the media?  Carlyle was an ass far too often I felt and Horachek was clearly brought in to burn down the fort.

I think that's a bit too loaded up with narratives. They weren't trading Phil Kessel, playoff superstar, because they weren't a playoff team. They weren't even a good team. It was, in fact, toxic one, probably. The main thing that changed between this year's playoff beast Phil and last year's 60 point, zero defense Phil is that Phil Kessel is now on a good team.

Would the Maple Leafs have got good with him on the team? I think so, but probably not quickly enough to take advantage of what's left of his peak.

 

[Coco-puffs]

1) I'm all in on Kessel for Conn Smythe

2) I hope this shows how the only thing that really matters come trade time is just elemental economic theory. Pittsburgh was the perfect situation for Kessel. He can be the fourth or fifth banana and be a huge contributor. Pittsburgh's deal was great for them and now it's playing out that way.

But the Leafs had one suitor and had to make the deal they made. I still like the return for the Leafs, it was a fair deal, but there has to be a market for players to get a good return. I really hope some of the "Why should we trade player X? He's good and has a good contract!" folk will absorb that.

Yeah, the Leafs weren't trading Phil Kessel the playoff superstar.  They were trading Phil Kessel the 60 point guy who played zero defense, was ambivalent toward "traditional" conditioning and had an absolutely toxic relationship with the organization.  Kessel needed to be traded and it would have been great to grab a 2nd 1st round pick, or a higher end prospect along with Kapanen but the team is what it is.  I wish we still had him because I like Phil and I hate that our media is the pile of trash that it is.  I wonder if things were different if we had a coach who actually stood up for his players in the media?  Carlyle was an ass far too often I felt and Horachek was clearly brought in to burn down the fort.

I think that's a bit too loaded up with narratives. They weren't trading Phil Kessel, playoff superstar, because they weren't a playoff team. They weren't even a good team. It was, in fact, toxic one, probably. The main thing that changed between this year's playoff beast Phil and last year's 60 point, zero defense Phil is that Phil Kessel is now on a good team.

Would the Maple Leafs have got good with him on the team? I think so, but probably not quickly enough to take advantage of what's left of his peak.

Not to mention the impact he may have had on our place in the standings.  We would not have finished last IMO.  Sometimes you need to tear-it-down in order to get the pieces you need.  No matter what anyone says or whatever he wins in Pittsburgh- the Leafs did the right thing trading him.  If anything, one year earlier would have been better!

 

[Kin]

Star players typically don't get traded straight up, so I was fine with the haul of quarters on the dollar in the trade.  The only gripe I had was eating 1.2 million for the next 7 years.  I'm glad we managed to not retain any salary on Dion, but  we did with Phil.

But that's my whole point. Nobody liked having to eat money on Kessel's deal but it was almost certainly a requirement of getting the deal done absent a second suitor.

Getting the trade done, getting some decent picks and prospects...that was the dessert. But they had to eat their vegetables first.

 

[mr grieves]

Not to mention the impact he may have had on our place in the standings.  We would not have finished last IMO.  Sometimes you need to tear-it-down in order to get the pieces you need.  No matter what anyone says or whatever he wins in Pittsburgh- the Leafs did the right thing trading him.  If anything, one year earlier would have been better!

That I don't know about. If you exchange PAP's 20 goals for 30 from Kessel, does this team really overcome its bad goaltending, injuries, revolving door of a roster?

The Leafs might've done the right thing in trading him, but I don't think any one of the reasons we can point to -- cap space years out, return, bottoming out, cultural shift, etc. -- is really sufficient. They're all slightly improved odds at things or intangible. Together, maybe, they point toward it being a no brainer.

But I'd draw the line at the character stuff and "you can't win with Phil" and we've gotta, for the sins of the Nonis crew, purify ourselves in the fire of a garbage roster or any of the the other stuff that might resonate with Shanahan's disdain for Kessel.

 

[Kin]

 
That I don't know about. If you exchange PAP's 20 goals for 30 from Kessel, does this team really overcome its bad goaltending, injuries, revolving door of a roster? 

To the extent that it gets them out of last place? If you use expected point total as determined by pythagorean methods then, yes. If the difference between Kessel and PAP is 0 defensively and +10 goals offensively than a 70 point and last place finish becomes roughly a 75-77 point and 25th to 28th place finish(but that seems like a low estimate on Kessel's contributions offensively).

And, on the otherhand, if Kessel wasn't even worth +10 goal differential from PAP then you have to ask why in the world they were paying him 8 million in the first place. 

 

[Coco-puffs]

Not to mention the impact he may have had on our place in the standings.  We would not have finished last IMO.  Sometimes you need to tear-it-down in order to get the pieces you need.  No matter what anyone says or whatever he wins in Pittsburgh- the Leafs did the right thing trading him.  If anything, one year earlier would have been better!

That I don't know about. If you exchange PAP's 20 goals for 30 from Kessel, does this team really overcome its bad goaltending, injuries, revolving door of a roster?

The Leafs might've done the right thing in trading him, but I don't think any one of the reasons we can point to -- cap space years out, return, bottoming out, cultural shift, etc. -- is really sufficient. They're all slightly improved odds at things or intangible. Together, maybe, they point toward it being a no brainer.

But I'd draw the line at the character stuff and "you can't win with Phil" and we've gotta, for the sins of the Nonis crew, purify ourselves in the fire of a garbage roster or any of the the other stuff that might resonate with Shanahan's disdain for Kessel.

First of all, why would you "exchange" PAP goals for Kessel's goals?  They can't co-exist?  And to answer your question- yes, we still would have sucked with Kessel, but not bad enough to finish last IMO.  Remember, two more points and we'd be selecting 4th overall (we'd have swapped positions with the Oilers).  This is why I suggested we waited one year too many to trade him.  Without our hot start to 2014-2015- very much on unsustainable start by the Kessel line, we may have been selecting Jack Eichel at worst last year.

Second, I don't buy into any of the narratives that were floating around at all regarding him, especially from the media that you can't win with Phil etc.  I like Phil Kessel alot actually.  He is an elite sniper and a winning team usually has one of those- but they also have a stud D-man (Letang) and a #1 center (or two- Crosby/Malkin). 

What I didn't like was most of the rest of the Leafs that surrounded him and we weren't getting any closer to acquiring the types of players required to become a winning team.  The Leafs didn't put him in a position to succeed, and as per many Toronto fans and scribes- if the team sucks, its the star players fault.  Phil Kessel didn't help himself in that regard by being aloof and being very streaky.  I want Phil Kessel to win the cup and the Conn Smythe at this point- I want Feshuk et al to eat their words. 

 

[mr grieves]

Not to mention the impact he may have had on our place in the standings.  We would not have finished last IMO.  Sometimes you need to tear-it-down in order to get the pieces you need.  No matter what anyone says or whatever he wins in Pittsburgh- the Leafs did the right thing trading him.  If anything, one year earlier would have been better!

That I don't know about. If you exchange PAP's 20 goals for 30 from Kessel, does this team really overcome its bad goaltending, injuries, revolving door of a roster?

The Leafs might've done the right thing in trading him, but I don't think any one of the reasons we can point to -- cap space years out, return, bottoming out, cultural shift, etc. -- is really sufficient. They're all slightly improved odds at things or intangible. Together, maybe, they point toward it being a no brainer.

But I'd draw the line at the character stuff and "you can't win with Phil" and we've gotta, for the sins of the Nonis crew, purify ourselves in the fire of a garbage roster or any of the the other stuff that might resonate with Shanahan's disdain for Kessel.

First of all, why would you "exchange" PAP goals for Kessel's goals?  They can't co-exist?  And to answer your question- yes, we still would have sucked with Kessel, but not bad enough to finish last IMO.  Remember, two more points and we'd be selecting 4th overall (we'd have swapped positions with the Oilers).  This is why I suggested we waited one year too many to trade him.  Without our hot start to 2014-2015- very much on unsustainable start by the Kessel line, we may have been selecting Jack Eichel at worst last year.

Because if they had Kessel, they wouldn't've needed a top-6 winger who plays the season on a crappy team and doesn't get traded.

As far as swapping position with the Oilers, who knows whether the combo of numbers that won were in the Leafs pool only when they hit 30th? Don't know what a +10 goal difference would've meant for the team. If Nik's right that it's 25-28th place, for the best he was moved. Wouldn't want to wander too far into alternate realities, because, in the end, I can't complain about where the Leafs are a year after trading Kessel, even if I'm not as certain he was in the way of the team being here.

And I think it's mostly down to your last paragraph:

The Leafs didn't put him in a position to succeed, and as per many Toronto fans and scribes- if the team sucks, its the star players fault.  Phil Kessel didn't help himself in that regard by being aloof and being very streaky. I want Phil Kessel to win the cup and the Conn Smythe at this point- I want Feshuk et al to eat their words.

And Shanahan.

That's all, really.

 

[Kin]

Pythagorean Win-Loss expectation isn't me, it's pretty well established.

http://theleafsnation.com/2010/11/27/pythagorean-expectations

Using Pythagorean Method in Hockey

 

[hockeyfan1]

Ah, memories of the hypotenuse!  Used to be one of my favourite math formulas.  Long time ago. 

 

[Zee]

Not to mention the impact he may have had on our place in the standings.  We would not have finished last IMO.  Sometimes you need to tear-it-down in order to get the pieces you need.  No matter what anyone says or whatever he wins in Pittsburgh- the Leafs did the right thing trading him.  If anything, one year earlier would have been better!

That I don't know about. If you exchange PAP's 20 goals for 30 from Kessel, does this team really overcome its bad goaltending, injuries, revolving door of a roster?

The Leafs might've done the right thing in trading him, but I don't think any one of the reasons we can point to -- cap space years out, return, bottoming out, cultural shift, etc. -- is really sufficient. They're all slightly improved odds at things or intangible. Together, maybe, they point toward it being a no brainer.

But I'd draw the line at the character stuff and "you can't win with Phil" and we've gotta, for the sins of the Nonis crew, purify ourselves in the fire of a garbage roster or any of the the other stuff that might resonate with Shanahan's disdain for Kessel.

First of all, why would you "exchange" PAP goals for Kessel's goals?  They can't co-exist?  And to answer your question- yes, we still would have sucked with Kessel, but not bad enough to finish last IMO.  Remember, two more points and we'd be selecting 4th overall (we'd have swapped positions with the Oilers).  This is why I suggested we waited one year too many to trade him.  Without our hot start to 2014-2015- very much on unsustainable start by the Kessel line, we may have been selecting Jack Eichel at worst last year.

Because if they had Kessel, they wouldn't've needed a top-6 winger who plays the season on a crappy team and doesn't get traded.

As far as swapping position with the Oilers, who knows whether the combo of numbers that won were in the Leafs pool only when they hit 30th? Don't know what a +10 goal difference would've meant for the team. If Nik's right that it's 25-28th place, for the best he was moved. Wouldn't want to wander too far into alternate realities, because, in the end, I can't complain about where the Leafs are a year after trading Kessel, even if I'm not as certain he was in the way of the team being here.

And I think it's mostly down to your last paragraph:

The Leafs didn't put him in a position to succeed, and as per many Toronto fans and scribes- if the team sucks, its the star players fault.  Phil Kessel didn't help himself in that regard by being aloof and being very streaky. I want Phil Kessel to win the cup and the Conn Smythe at this point- I want Feshuk et al to eat their words.

And Shanahan.

That's all, really.

What words does Shanahan have to eat?

 

[Highlander]

Star players typically don't get traded straight up, so I was fine with the haul of quarters on the dollar in the trade.  The only gripe I had was eating 1.2 million for the next 7 years.  I'm glad we managed to not retain any salary on Dion, but  we did with Phil.

But that's my whole point. Nobody liked having to eat money on Kessel's deal but it was almost certainly a requirement of getting the deal done absent a second suitor.

Getting the trade done, getting some decent picks and prospects...that was the dessert. But they had to eat their vegetables first.

Perhaps a proviso should have been written into the contract, that if the Pens won the Cup with Kessel as the leading scorer, that the Leaf retaining salary should have been dumped. If you think of the revenues pouring in to that organization with each additional playoff game in Pittsburg the mind boggles.  Further isn't it strange that every time you hear that Pittsburg is in trouble financially (and may be moved) that they win the frikken cup.  Its happened twice already in their history. With Mario and Sid and now the Kessel (if they win)

 

[Kin]

Good article on Kessel and the success he's found in Pittsburgh:

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/15857634/nhl-2016-stanley-cup-playoffs-pittsburgh-penguins-winger-phil-kessel-often-misunderstood-become-man-team-postseason

Nothing particularly revealing although I think it kind of hammers home that in the right situation the idea that Kessel is a bad locker room presence doesn't hold up.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Good article on Kessel and the success he's found in Pittsburgh:

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/15857634/nhl-2016-stanley-cup-playoffs-pittsburgh-penguins-winger-phil-kessel-often-misunderstood-become-man-team-postseason

Nothing particularly revealing although I think it kind of hammers home that in the right situation the idea that Kessel is a bad locker room presence doesn't hold up.

I said it from the day he arrived.  He's a complementary player- but one you absolutely want to have on your team because he's a game-breaker.

The problem with Kessel is, if he's your leader, he doesn't lead by example very well.  He's great in the locker room in terms of camaraderie and lightening the mood- but when its time to be serious and show other players that hard work is required he's just not that type of player.

From that viewpoint, Toronto either needed to find someone to take the mantle as the leader of the team before the start of this year or they ABSOLUTELY needed to trade him so the young guys coming up weren't looking to him as a leader.

 

[herman]

I said it from the day he arrived.  He's a complementary player- but one you absolutely want to have on your team because he's a game-breaker.

The problem with Kessel is, if he's your leader, he doesn't lead by example very well.  He's great in the locker room in terms of camaraderie and lightening the mood- but when its time to be serious and show other players that hard work is required he's just not that type of player.

From that viewpoint, Toronto either needed to find someone to take the mantle as the leader of the team before the start of this year or they ABSOLUTELY needed to trade him so the young guys coming up weren't looking to him as a leader.

This. I love Kessel the player nonetheless.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I said it from the day he arrived.  He's a complementary player- but one you absolutely want to have on your team because he's a game-breaker.

The problem with Kessel is, if he's your leader, he doesn't lead by example very well.  He's great in the locker room in terms of camaraderie and lightening the mood- but when its time to be serious and show other players that hard work is required he's just not that type of player.

From that viewpoint, Toronto either needed to find someone to take the mantle as the leader of the team before the start of this year or they ABSOLUTELY needed to trade him so the young guys coming up weren't looking to him as a leader.

This. I love Kessel the player nonetheless.

I love Kessel the player too.  But expectations of him and the team were always out of line with his/their capabilities.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Good article on Kessel and the success he's found in Pittsburgh:

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/15857634/nhl-2016-stanley-cup-playoffs-pittsburgh-penguins-winger-phil-kessel-often-misunderstood-become-man-team-postseason

Nothing particularly revealing although I think it kind of hammers home that in the right situation the idea that Kessel is a bad locker room presence doesn't hold up.

I said it from the day he arrived.  He's a complementary player- but one you absolutely want to have on your team because he's a game-breaker.

The problem with Kessel is, if he's your leader, he doesn't lead by example very well.  He's great in the locker room in terms of camaraderie and lightening the mood- but when its time to be serious and show other players that hard work is required he's just not that type of player.

From that viewpoint, Toronto either needed to find someone to take the mantle as the leader of the team before the start of this year or they ABSOLUTELY needed to trade him so the young guys coming up weren't looking to him as a leader.

But I'd argue there are few clearer examples of "leading by example" than leading your team in scoring in the playoffs, when it is generally agreed that games are tougher.