Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm reading this stuff, but I still can't help but think if Dubas opens the door to a bridge here, that Matthews and Marner will want to go through that door as well.

A take like this almost makes me want to renege on that bet we made that I'm almost certainly going to lose at this point.

Did I make another stupid bet?

Marincin!

 

[Frank E]

I'm reading this stuff, but I still can't help but think if Dubas opens the door to a bridge here, that Matthews and Marner will want to go through that door as well.

A take like this almost makes me want to renege on that bet we made that I'm almost certainly going to lose at this point.

Did I make another stupid bet?

Marincin!

Do you actually bet me that he would make the team?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Marincin!

Do you actually bet me that he would make the team?

It was a couple months ago.

I still maintain it might have happened if Babs didn't find another Russian he loved.

 

[Frank E]

Marincin!

Do you actually bet me that he would make the team?

It was a couple months ago.

I still maintain it might have happened if Babs didn't find another Russian he loved.

You were wrong then, and you're still wrong.

E-transfer me my $1000 dollars.

 

[Bates]

Literally no one said there might not be multiple offers before the post you were questioned on.

There's a lot of smart guys in the front office and they've been running numbers all summer.  I think it goes without saying that they would have multiple avenues and offers to get this done.  Dubas himself said yesterday that a bridge deal would be "sub-optimal" for both parties so I'm sure they have an idea of what that would look like.

No doubt but the person I'm responding to seems to think that Dubas wouldn't have multiple offers out there so I was addressing that which, as you say, should go without saying but there's always one in the barrel.

I think we can all agree that a bridge deal would be sub-optimal for both parties but I think for a long term deal you do need to have a sort of mutual sense of co-operation that doesn't seem to be present at the moment(and at the very least, I think, would involve both parties in the current impasse being willing to compromise). Failing that, I think a fair argument can be made that the Leafs are actually better served with Nylander on a bridge deal so, you know, like you say it's almost certainly out there as a possibility.

 

[Fanatic]

I think a lot of it will have to do with how the Leafs start the season. If they come out firing I think Dubas will be largely pressure free. A rough start and there'll definitely be noise.

That is a very valid point I had not been considering. The win/loss record will factor into this for sure. I am still hoping it never comes to that and Willy is locked up by this weekend.

 

[Fanatic]

Nylander is a millionaire with millionaire parents. While I'm sure he's itching to play and doesn't like the idea of losing money, it strikes me as unlikely that a few missed paychecks is really going to make a huge difference to him. Especially when someone is going to pay him.

Likely the bigger motivator for Willy is the desire to contribute and put up numbers. Sitting, for example, for 10 games would deflate his yearly point total. I have a sense that good players, whether they ever admit it or not, look at the scoring leaders and compare where they stand. They all want to get off on the right foot. Willy's agent also reps for Johnny Gaudreau and I believe he signed the day before the season was set to start.

Perhaps I am making too much of it in my mind, but I would really like to see all of these guys together to start the season and get off on the right foot without a distraction.

 

[Zee]

I think a lot of it will have to do with how the Leafs start the season. If they come out firing I think Dubas will be largely pressure free. A rough start and there'll definitely be noise.

That is a very valid point I had not been considering. The win/loss record will factor into this for sure. I am still hoping it never comes to that and Willy is locked up by this weekend.

Let's hope Nylander doesn't want to miss any cheddar and signs before the season starts.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

I think a lot of it will have to do with how the Leafs start the season. If they come out firing I think Dubas will be largely pressure free. A rough start and there'll definitely be noise.

That is a very valid point I had not been considering. The win/loss record will factor into this for sure. I am still hoping it never comes to that and Willy is locked up by this weekend.

Let's hope Nylander doesn't want to miss any cheddar and signs before the season starts.

By this stage in his career Nylander isn?t going to starve if he misses a couple of cheques.

The math is not about whether the difference in ask over the course of the contract amounts to more than he?ll lose by sitting out a period of time. If the hypothetical $8m per for 8 years is accurate, and the leafs are offering anything 7 or less, that amounts to $8m over the course of a deal, which would mean it?s in Nylander?s interest to sit out up to 6 months (possibly more depending what the leafs offer is). Similarly on a bridge, it?s likely that Nylander has a number that would increase as he sits.

That assumes term length is agreed and only $$$ is in dispute.

He could also seek a trade... while the Leafs could get great assets for him, given we?re clearly in ?win now? mode, short that elusive #1 RHD, it?s unlikely we receive an asset better than Nylander.

You could almost say he has some leverage...

 

[Phileas Fogg]

Likely the bigger motivator for Willy is the desire to contribute and put up numbers. Sitting, for example, for 10 games would deflate his yearly point total.

I think he'd happily settle for a great points per game stat this season if it meant some extra cheddar.

 

[Kin]

The math is not about whether the difference in ask over the course of the contract amounts to more than he?ll lose by sitting out a period of time. If the hypothetical $8m per for 8 years is accurate, and the leafs are offering anything 7 or less, that amounts to $8m over the course of a deal, which would mean it?s in Nylander?s interest to sit out up to 6 months (possibly more depending what the leafs offer is). Similarly on a bridge, it?s likely that Nylander has a number that would increase as he sits.

Exactly but even then even if it's a relatively small dispute, like a few hundred thousand in AAV, you're still talking about being able to make a net gain if he sits out for almost a month.

 

[ZBBM]

Nylander is a millionaire with millionaire parents. While I'm sure he's itching to play and doesn't like the idea of losing money, it strikes me as unlikely that a few missed paychecks is really going to make a huge difference to him. Especially when someone is going to pay him.

Likely the bigger motivator for Willy is the desire to contribute and put up numbers. Sitting, for example, for 10 games would deflate his yearly point total. I have a sense that good players, whether they ever admit it or not, look at the scoring leaders and compare where they stand. They all want to get off on the right foot. Willy's agent also reps for Johnny Gaudreau and I believe he signed the day before the season was set to start.

Perhaps I am making too much of it in my mind, but I would really like to see all of these guys together to start the season and get off on the right foot without a distraction.

I  think you've got it.  Once the prospect of missing actual games hits home, he's not going to be wanting to sit back in Sweden having his agent play cat and mouse.  Players want to get paid, but they *really* want to play.  And frankly, he couldn't ask for a better setup than the crew he'll get to play with here once he signs.

 

[Zee]

I think a lot of it will have to do with how the Leafs start the season. If they come out firing I think Dubas will be largely pressure free. A rough start and there'll definitely be noise.

That is a very valid point I had not been considering. The win/loss record will factor into this for sure. I am still hoping it never comes to that and Willy is locked up by this weekend.

Let's hope Nylander doesn't want to miss any cheddar and signs before the season starts.

By this stage in his career Nylander isn?t going to starve if he misses a couple of cheques.

The math is not about whether the difference in ask over the course of the contract amounts to more than he?ll lose by sitting out a period of time. If the hypothetical $8m per for 8 years is accurate, and the leafs are offering anything 7 or less, that amounts to $8m over the course of a deal, which would mean it?s in Nylander?s interest to sit out up to 6 months (possibly more depending what the leafs offer is). Similarly on a bridge, it?s likely that Nylander has a number that would increase as he sits.

I'm not understanding this logic.  If Nylander's total contract ask is $64M and the Leafs are offering $56M, a difference of $8M like you said, how does it benefit Nylander to sit out 6 months?  Sitting out 6 months means he misses the entire season and gets no money this year.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I think a lot of it will have to do with how the Leafs start the season. If they come out firing I think Dubas will be largely pressure free. A rough start and there'll definitely be noise.

That is a very valid point I had not been considering. The win/loss record will factor into this for sure. I am still hoping it never comes to that and Willy is locked up by this weekend.

Let's hope Nylander doesn't want to miss any cheddar and signs before the season starts.

By this stage in his career Nylander isn?t going to starve if he misses a couple of cheques.

The math is not about whether the difference in ask over the course of the contract amounts to more than he?ll lose by sitting out a period of time. If the hypothetical $8m per for 8 years is accurate, and the leafs are offering anything 7 or less, that amounts to $8m over the course of a deal, which would mean it?s in Nylander?s interest to sit out up to 6 months (possibly more depending what the leafs offer is). Similarly on a bridge, it?s likely that Nylander has a number that would increase as he sits.

I'm not understanding this logic.  If Nylander's total contract ask is $64M and the Leafs are offering $56M, a difference of $8M like you said, how does it benefit Nylander to sit out 6 months?  Sitting out 6 months means he misses the entire season and gets no money this year.

I'm sure the OP meant half the season (or 93 days from the start of it anyway).  Unfortunately, even that timeline is too long as you have to be signed by December 1st to eligible to play.  On that date there are 127 days left of the 186 day regular seasons, so he'd still collect over 2/3rds of his first year salary.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

I think a lot of it will have to do with how the Leafs start the season. If they come out firing I think Dubas will be largely pressure free. A rough start and there'll definitely be noise.

That is a very valid point I had not been considering. The win/loss record will factor into this for sure. I am still hoping it never comes to that and Willy is locked up by this weekend.

Let's hope Nylander doesn't want to miss any cheddar and signs before the season starts.

By this stage in his career Nylander isn?t going to starve if he misses a couple of cheques.

The math is not about whether the difference in ask over the course of the contract amounts to more than he?ll lose by sitting out a period of time. If the hypothetical $8m per for 8 years is accurate, and the leafs are offering anything 7 or less, that amounts to $8m over the course of a deal, which would mean it?s in Nylander?s interest to sit out up to 6 months (possibly more depending what the leafs offer is). Similarly on a bridge, it?s likely that Nylander has a number that would increase as he sits.

I'm not understanding this logic.  If Nylander's total contract ask is $64M and the Leafs are offering $56M, a difference of $8M like you said, how does it benefit Nylander to sit out 6 months?  Sitting out 6 months means he misses the entire season and gets no money this year.

If the difference in ask/offer is $8m, then it costs Nylander $8m to sign the leafs contract vs what he thinks he?s worth.

The total value of $8m by 8 is $64m. If the Leafs are offering (hypothetically) $7, that?s a $56m value contract. So from Nylander?s perspective the difference is $8m... if he believes waiting will get him that $8m/year (based on other age/performance examples in the league) then he?s better off waiting than signing. Even if he waits 12 months, 8x8 after a year off is as good as the hypothetical 8x7 offer on the table anyway... and it?s unlikely a team would sit on an asset like Nylander for a full year anyway, particularly when they?re trying to win the cup this year.

I.e. if he waits a month, the Leafs trade him, and he then signs the deal he wants, he?s ahead.

Or, if he waits until the Leafs hit their first rough patch, the media put pressure on Dubas, and then signs, he?s ahead.

The main point: There?s no financial driver for opening day to force Nylander to cave in, unless the difference between ask/offer is so small that there are other issues anyway.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I think a lot of it will have to do with how the Leafs start the season. If they come out firing I think Dubas will be largely pressure free. A rough start and there'll definitely be noise.

That is a very valid point I had not been considering. The win/loss record will factor into this for sure. I am still hoping it never comes to that and Willy is locked up by this weekend.

Let's hope Nylander doesn't want to miss any cheddar and signs before the season starts.

By this stage in his career Nylander isn?t going to starve if he misses a couple of cheques.

The math is not about whether the difference in ask over the course of the contract amounts to more than he?ll lose by sitting out a period of time. If the hypothetical $8m per for 8 years is accurate, and the leafs are offering anything 7 or less, that amounts to $8m over the course of a deal, which would mean it?s in Nylander?s interest to sit out up to 6 months (possibly more depending what the leafs offer is). Similarly on a bridge, it?s likely that Nylander has a number that would increase as he sits.

I'm not understanding this logic.  If Nylander's total contract ask is $64M and the Leafs are offering $56M, a difference of $8M like you said, how does it benefit Nylander to sit out 6 months?  Sitting out 6 months means he misses the entire season and gets no money this year.

If the difference in ask/offer is $8m, then it costs Nylander $8m to sign the leafs contract vs what he thinks he?s worth.

The total value of $8m by 8 is $64m. If the Leafs are offering (hypothetically) $7, that?s a $56m value contract. So from Nylander?s perspective the difference is $8m... if he believes waiting will get him that $8m/year (based on other age/performance examples in the league) then he?s better off waiting than signing. Even if he waits 12 months, 8x8 after a year off is as good as the hypothetical 8x7 offer on the table anyway... and it?s unlikely a team would sit on an asset like Nylander for a full year anyway, particularly when they?re trying to win the cup this year.

I.e. if he waits a month, the Leafs trade him, and he then signs the deal he wants, he?s ahead.

Or, if he waits until the Leafs hit their first rough patch, the media put pressure on Dubas, and then signs, he?s ahead.

The main point: There?s no financial driver for opening day to force Nylander to cave in, unless the difference between ask/offer is so small that there are other issues anyway.

That's a typical union thought process. Why would a team sign a player for 8 million dollars after he's sat out for a year? If he sits out the season, a bridge contract is almost a certainty. it would be a "show me you've still got it" contract.

He also has no control over what another team may offer him if a trade was made(if i'm missing something let me know). How much of a kick in the can would it be to be traded to Arizona and be offered a million less than you were being offered by the Leafs.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

Let's hope Nylander doesn't want to miss any cheddar and signs before the season starts.

By this stage in his career Nylander isn?t going to starve if he misses a couple of cheques.

The math is not about whether the difference in ask over the course of the contract amounts to more than he?ll lose by sitting out a period of time. If the hypothetical $8m per for 8 years is accurate, and the leafs are offering anything 7 or less, that amounts to $8m over the course of a deal, which would mean it?s in Nylander?s interest to sit out up to 6 months (possibly more depending what the leafs offer is). Similarly on a bridge, it?s likely that Nylander has a number that would increase as he sits.

I'm not understanding this logic.  If Nylander's total contract ask is $64M and the Leafs are offering $56M, a difference of $8M like you said, how does it benefit Nylander to sit out 6 months?  Sitting out 6 months means he misses the entire season and gets no money this year.

I'm sure the OP meant half the season (or 93 days from the start of it anyway).  Unfortunately, even that timeline is too long as you have to be signed by December 1st to eligible to play.  On that date there are 127 days left of the 186 day regular seasons, so he'd still collect over 2/3rds of his first year salary.

Yeah, my point was more around where the financial pressures actually arise than the literal match payments.

If we want to break it down to exactly when he?d need to sign for an $8m difference to become the driver, I bet that?s something his management has done and explained to him - but, while there is a date, it?s not opening day (or even this season) and if it ever gets that far I think we?ve got problems.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Even if he waits 12 months, 8x8 after a year off is as good as the hypothetical 8x7 offer on the table anyway...

Huge flaw in this logic.  If he waits 12 months he's essentially just signed a 64M deal over NINE years since he earned zilch over the previous year.  And he'd be worse off because he just ate into his next contract, where with the cap going up etc he'd probably earn much more than 8M AAV.  Did you mean 7 x 8M? 

 

[IJustLurkHere]

Let's hope Nylander doesn't want to miss any cheddar and signs before the season starts.

By this stage in his career Nylander isn?t going to starve if he misses a couple of cheques.

The math is not about whether the difference in ask over the course of the contract amounts to more than he?ll lose by sitting out a period of time. If the hypothetical $8m per for 8 years is accurate, and the leafs are offering anything 7 or less, that amounts to $8m over the course of a deal, which would mean it?s in Nylander?s interest to sit out up to 6 months (possibly more depending what the leafs offer is). Similarly on a bridge, it?s likely that Nylander has a number that would increase as he sits.

I'm not understanding this logic.  If Nylander's total contract ask is $64M and the Leafs are offering $56M, a difference of $8M like you said, how does it benefit Nylander to sit out 6 months?  Sitting out 6 months means he misses the entire season and gets no money this year.

If the difference in ask/offer is $8m, then it costs Nylander $8m to sign the leafs contract vs what he thinks he?s worth.

The total value of $8m by 8 is $64m. If the Leafs are offering (hypothetically) $7, that?s a $56m value contract. So from Nylander?s perspective the difference is $8m... if he believes waiting will get him that $8m/year (based on other age/performance examples in the league) then he?s better off waiting than signing. Even if he waits 12 months, 8x8 after a year off is as good as the hypothetical 8x7 offer on the table anyway... and it?s unlikely a team would sit on an asset like Nylander for a full year anyway, particularly when they?re trying to win the cup this year.

I.e. if he waits a month, the Leafs trade him, and he then signs the deal he wants, he?s ahead.

Or, if he waits until the Leafs hit their first rough patch, the media put pressure on Dubas, and then signs, he?s ahead.

The main point: There?s no financial driver for opening day to force Nylander to cave in, unless the difference between ask/offer is so small that there are other issues anyway.

That's a typical union thought process. Why would a team sign a player for 8 million dollars after he's sat out for a year? If he sits out the season, a bridge contract is almost a certainty. it would be a "show me you've still got it" contract.

He also has no control over what another team may offer him if a trade was made(if i'm missing something let me know). How much of a kick in the can would it be to be traded to Arizona and be offered a million less than you were being offered by the Leafs.

They?ll trade for him and sign for him because he?s good.

We?ve seen it time and again with contract disputes, if they can play, eventually they get signed... the alternative is ending up somewhere like the Jets and Trouba did (1 yr $5.5m)... and a ?show me? deal is an entirely reasonable approach, as long as you don?t mind the risk of negotiating with all of Matthews, Marner and Nylander at the same time after what promises to be a booming statistical season.

It?s not a union (?) thing, it?s that there are very few people in the world who can play hockey as well as William Nylander can.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

Even if he waits 12 months, 8x8 after a year off is as good as the hypothetical 8x7 offer on the table anyway...

Huge flaw in this logic.  If he waits 12 months he's essentially just signed a 64M deal over NINE years since he earned zilch over the previous year.  And he'd be worse off because he just ate into his next contract, where with the cap going up etc he'd probably earn much more than 8M AAV.  Did you mean 7 x 8M?

I take your point- I?m thinking less about the 8th/9th year than about the difference between a $7m and $8m offer over the next 8 years.

I.e the offer is:
7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7=56
What he gets is:

0-8-8-8-8-8-8-8= 56 (and yes if he then signs 8x8, another year at 8 tacked on the back)

I take your point that a 30 year old Nylander might well be able to get more than $8m/yr (and it may well be that the sticking point is how many UFA years he sells in this contract too...)

my thinking is relative to salary vs pressure to sign... I.e that he?s not going to cave in the next week because he fears missing a single (or even many) paychecks.