Leafs 2015/2016 Schedule in 10 game chunks

[CarltonTheBear]

Hey look another 3 day break leading to a back to back.

It actual goes STL -> (3 day break) -> (3 games in 4 days) -> (3 day break) -> (3 games in 4 days)

I mean maybe all teams are going through this, but it's still weird.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Hey look another 3 day break leading to a back to back.

It actual goes STL -> (3 day break) -> (3 games in 4 days) -> (3 day break) -> (3 games in 4 days)

I mean maybe all teams are going through this, but it's still weird.

If there are any adjustments that can be made, I suspect Lou will see to a significantly more reasonable schedule next season.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If there are any adjustments that can be made, I suspect Lou will see to a significantly more reasonable schedule next season.

This is Lou we're talking about. He's probably having our March schedule rearranged as we speak.

 

[Zee]

Bernier with man of the match in 3 of the last 4 games.  Has he got his mojo back?

 

[Highlander]

Lets hope so, so his trade value increases.

 

[Zee]

Lets hope so, so his trade value increases.

I like your thought process.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Is the team in the bottom five before the trade-deadline sell-off?

I'd say yes. They're icing one of the most talent-poor rosters in the league, and their opponents are starting to take control of the possession game. I think they caught a few teams not taking them seriously enough early on, but the word is out now. I don't think their possession game will completely fall off the map, but it will regress - and with the lack of talent and the inconsistent goaltending . . . that's a bottom 5 team before they sell off pieces.

Not trying to be an ass or anything, genuinely.

Have you changed your mind on the bottom five thing?

I have said all season and maintain, this won't be a bottom five team before the sell-off.

I took a fair amount of heat for that statement, just wondering if you've softened on your stance some.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Yes. I don't think the sell-off will really change the team all that much. I mean, who is going to get traded? Matthias? Spaling? Parenteau? They're hardly driving the team right now. If anything we might get slightly better after they leave depending on who gets called up to replace them.

Same questions as above for you Carlton.

 

[Zee]

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Same questions as above for you Carlton.

Since November the teams had a .939 even-strength save percentage, good for 5th best in the league during that time. That's certainly something I don't think anyone saw coming. If they keep getting goaltending like that then yeah they'll put up more points than I thought.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

So, have no fear, this is just a blip. Their 5-on-5 possession numbers are slipping to decidedly middle of the pack status, and their score adjusted 5-on-5 numbers are inside the bottom 10. They're putting up more points, but not playing as well/controlling the puck as much.

Yeah but some of that is the fact that 5 of their past 6 games have been against teams in the top 8 so far in score adjusted CF%.  There's still a lot of poorer possession teams for them to face.

I really have no idea how they are going to fare.  Reimer is going to come back down, but Bernier will come back somewhat as well.  And while I don't think they're going to start lighting the lamp, the SH% should tick up slightly as well because they're not completely devoid of offensive talent IMO.  I'm not sure what to make of them yet.

EDIT: To clarify, I mean what to make of them in terms of bottoming out.

Any more concrete prediction for where they'll be pre and post deadline Potvin?

 

[bustaheims]

Not trying to be an ass or anything, genuinely.

Have you changed your mind on the bottom five thing?

I have said all season and maintain, this won't be a bottom five team before the sell-off.

I took a fair amount of heat for that statement, just wondering if you've softened on your stance some.

Not yet, no. The stark difference in their success against the two conferences still has me leaning towards them as a bottom 5 team the whole way - and, while they're outside the bottom 5 at the moment, it's by the slimmest of margins, and they could very easily be right back there in a couple days, just like they were before last night's game. While the disparity in success between the two conferences is hard to explain, until the team actually shows that they're able to beat teams in their own conference - and in regulation/OT rather than a shootout - they'll still be a bottom 5 team in my eyes. After this West Coast swing, 33 of the team's remaining 42 games will be against Eastern Conference opponents.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Same questions as above for you Carlton.

Since November the teams had a .939 even-strength save percentage, good for 5th best in the league during that time. That's certainly something I don't think anyone saw coming. If they keep getting goaltending like that then yeah they'll put up more points than I thought.

For sure that's a huge factor.

I think it's worth mentioning that in the time frame you mentioned until Dec 29th. They had a goalie play nine games and save .869% of shots.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Not trying to be an ass or anything, genuinely.

Have you changed your mind on the bottom five thing?

I have said all season and maintain, this won't be a bottom five team before the sell-off.

I took a fair amount of heat for that statement, just wondering if you've softened on your stance some.

Not yet, no. The stark difference in their success against the two conferences still has me leaning towards them as a bottom 5 team the whole way - and, while they're outside the bottom 5 at the moment, it's by the slimmest of margins, and they could very easily be right back there in a couple days, just like they were before last night's game. While the disparity in success between the two conferences is hard to explain, until the team actually shows that they're able to beat teams in their own conference - and in regulation/OT rather than a shootout - they'll still be a bottom 5 team in my eyes. After this West Coast swing, 33 of the team's remaining 42 games will be against Eastern Conference opponents.

It has to be just randomness that they're having so much success vs. West teams compared to East.  I can't think of any other reason why it would be.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Not trying to be an ass or anything, genuinely.

Have you changed your mind on the bottom five thing?

I have said all season and maintain, this won't be a bottom five team before the sell-off.

I took a fair amount of heat for that statement, just wondering if you've softened on your stance some.

Not yet, no. The stark difference in their success against the two conferences still has me leaning towards them as a bottom 5 team the whole way - and, while they're outside the bottom 5 at the moment, it's by the slimmest of margins, and they could very easily be right back there in a couple days, just like they were before last night's game. While the disparity in success between the two conferences is hard to explain, until the team actually shows that they're able to beat teams in their own conference - and in regulation/OT rather than a shootout - they'll still be a bottom 5 team in my eyes. After this West Coast swing, 33 of the team's remaining 42 games will be against Eastern Conference opponents.

Yeah, you've mentioned that quite a bit recently, it's an interesting wrinkle. It'll be interesting to see how much there is to it going forward, it could be a really strange anomaly.

I'm excited to find out and I'm also tempering my expectations with the knowledge that the goaltending will most likely even out some more.

I still think they'll be around the 22nd-19th spot before they start selling off players.

 

[bustaheims]

It has to be just randomness that they're having so much success vs. West teams compared to East.  I can't think of any other reason why it would be.

It could be. The only reasoning I've been able to come up with is really counter-intuitive and not without its flaws. If it is just randomness, then they'll start winning games against the East as they enter the back half of their schedule, and they'll move out of the bottom 5. If it's not and there's some yet-to-be-identified reason for it, they'll remain in the bottom 5. Until that's settled, though, I'm going maintain my position.

 

[Zee]

Bernier with the hattrick!

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

It has to be just randomness that they're having so much success vs. West teams compared to East.  I can't think of any other reason why it would be.

It could be. The only reasoning I've been able to come up with is really counter-intuitive and not without its flaws. If it is just randomness, then they'll start winning games against the East as they enter the back half of their schedule, and they'll move out of the bottom 5. If it's not and there's some yet-to-be-identified reason for it, they'll remain in the bottom 5. Until that's settled, though, I'm going maintain my position.

I wish there was a way to see the possession numbers and some of those even-strength numbers versus each specific conference but so far I haven't found a site that does that.

 

[bustaheims]

I wish there was a way to see the possession numbers and some of those even-strength numbers versus each specific conference but so far I haven't found a site that does that.

Yeah, you'd have to go game-by-game, which is pretty time consuming. However, based on the graph you posted in the GDT for last night's game, it looks like their CF% started to rebound in late November, which is  around the same time their schedule shifted from being heavily against Eastern teams to heavily against Western teams. That's not exactly what your'e looking for, but it's the best I can find.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I wish there was a way to see the possession numbers and some of those even-strength numbers versus each specific conference but so far I haven't found a site that does that.

Yeah, you'd have to go game-by-game, which is pretty time consuming. However, based on the graph you posted in the GDT for last night's game, it looks like their CF% started to rebound in late November, which is  around the same time their schedule shifted from being heavily against Eastern teams to heavily against Western teams. That's not exactly what your'e looking for, but it's the best I can find.

And it's not like the West is worse than the East this season.  If my math is correct, the West is 131-97-26 vs. the East so far this season.