Zee said:
Don't worry, they're still 3 points out of the 2nd best lottery position too!
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Don't worry, they're still 3 points out of the 2nd best lottery position too!
I wish the Leafs would stop winning. I feel destined to an eternity of mediocrity forever finishing 9th place. Not bad enough to get a great draft pick, not good enough to make the playoffs and not being able to build towards a contender. It's purgatory for us Leaf fans.
Redleaf
Active member
This is just a hunch, but unless something happens to Reimer, which isn't a stretch with his injury history, they are just going to continue to rack up points.CarltonTheBear said:
This isn't a team playing way over their heads anymore that will come crashing down at anytime. They are playing a sound system, and gaining confidence with every win. Id say, despite where we stand right now, we're heading closer to a playoff position than we are to a good lottery spot.
Not many people on these boards wanted to buy into the 'hype' of what an excellent coach like Babcock could bring to this team. Now we are starting to see it first hand. I realize Reimer has been a big reason for the success of late, but without the better defensive play in front of him, he wouldn't be playing nearly as well.
Redleaf
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
Fair enough. But do you honestly see this team collapsing the way they did under Carlyle? To me they seem more organized then at any time under Carlyle, and they have the analytic numbers to prove that. I also think that with Kessel gone, they have no bad habits to fall back on, but thats just me.
Kin
New member
RedLeaf said:
They don't need to collapse. They just basically need to more or less do what they've done but with the unsustainable goaltending...not sustaining.
There were some people, and I'm sure we could find out who, that talked a big game about what Carlyle's coaching meant when the Leafs reeled off some improbable wins early last year too.
bustaheims
Active member
RedLeaf said:
The advanced stats and underlying numbers tell a very different story. Their 5 on 5 possession numbers have sagged to well below 50% in November, as have their offensive zone starts. Their Sv% has been unsustainably high, as has their PP success rate. The system they've played under Babcock has made these issues less significant and less obvious than they were under Carlyle, but they're still there. The talent level is still lacking. They may not crash and burn - but, that's more because they don't have all that far to drop more than anything else. They look better under Babcock. They're certainly playing with more structure and more consistency, but they're still not a team that's good enough to win on a regular basis. Their overall record is probably pretty close to where should be based on their talent level, but their success of late . . . the numbers make it pretty clear that, without some significant improvements, that's not going to continue, so enjoy it while it lasts.
bustaheims
Active member
RedLeaf said:
Actually, they don't, really. The analytic numbers don't say anything about how organized they are. Their recent numbers, however, point to them not being particularly more successful.
Also, the idea that the bad habits came from Kessel is pure speculation, and we've seen a number of those bad habits still be part of Bozak and JvR's games, so . . .
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
RedLeaf said:
See, this just simply isn't true, it's repeating meaningless platitudes peddled by a lazy media.
They have gotten great goaltending, their PP and PK has been excellent, but 5v5 they've been on the decline all month and long term that is the best indicator of success.
Now they've played some good teams, so chances are their possession numbers will be better than they have been the past few weeks, but the goaltending will also regress some and the PP and PK will likely cool at least a little too.
Unless you're willing to talk about real tangible results of this improved "system" then it's just searching for an easy narrative.
For the record, I don't think they'll be a bottom five team this year, at least not until they start selling off players towards the deadline. But let's not pretend that the results they've had recently are something they aren't.
Kin
New member
I'd also point out that if the Leafs somehow finish outside of the bottom five, I'd just be disappointed because I want the rebuild to go as quickly as possible. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but if whatever Babcock is doing actually did cause the team to finish 8th from he bottom I'd be less impressed with him as a coach, not more.
Zee
Active member
RedLeaf said:
For me it's all about goaltending. A goalie playing great can cover up a lot of mistakes and help the team pick up a lot of points. Which is why I suggested getting rid of Reimer now. He keeps playing this well, his stock should be higher than last year, although the market for goalies isn't really that great for asset return. I know the team wants to win as much as possible, but it's better served by losing right now and securing a better draft position. Maybe Reimer regresses soon and it all takes care of itself.
Redleaf
Active member
Zee said:
Yeah. I think if Reimer was traded or succumb to injury this team would be back to scraping by. Especially with the confidence that Bernier instills so far this year. The funny thing is, even when both goalies were playing poorly, this team was staying in games. To me that says, 'find me a good goalie, not necessarily a great one'
Frank E
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
For this to happen though, I think we'd have some more attractive players at the deadline that would hopefully get us some interesting assets....so silver linings and all that.
But really, if they're trending in that direction at the deadline, they should be moving everything possible out of the roster in order to drop down appreciably in the standings.
EDIT: They should be shopping Reimer like RIGHT NOW.