Leafs 2015/2016 Schedule in 10 game chunks

[Zee]

You guy are spewing all sorts of chunks in my chunk thread.  Never has this green/red/orange thread been so popular.  ;D

 

[Redleaf]

I guess. But 'playing better' also needs to take into account Reimers play too doesn't it? I mean, it's not just the players passing the puck around and keeping better possession of it that determines whether a team is playing well. Goalies count as team members too, right? They are extremely important team members. They stand on their heads and win games for their 'team' all the time in the NHL. That's is partly what I mean when I say the team has been playing better. And for the record, I did say if Reimer were to get hurt or traded the 'team' would suffer and most likely start losing again.

Yes, but people have already addressed this and it's something else you've ignored.

Reimer isn't just playing better, he's playing at a level that, as far as I know, no NHL goalie has ever sustained over a full season. He is saving 95% of all shots at 5v5 this season. Of goalies that have played ten games this season, only Lundqvist has been better in terms of score adjusted sv%.

That has to come down and when it does, if they haven't fixed the fact that they are getting consistently outplayed at 5v5, then they are going to have a rude awakening.

Well, when we get there we can have that discussion, right? Right now the 'team' is playing well enough to secure some victories. Why rain on that with what you think will happen in 6 weeks times, or whatever. Why piss on someone that posts they like what they are seeing with the Leafs play of late? Even if you think Im burying my head in the sand about my observations, what makes it so important to you to dispel the notion that I think they are playing well right now? Give it a break. Some of us just like watching the games, forming opinions and observations. If you think they will crash and burn, I can respect that opinion, but it doesn't mean you stand for us all on that. Lighten up man.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Well, when we get there we can have that discussion, right? Right now the 'team' is playing well enough to secure some victories. Why rain on that with what you think will happen in 6 weeks times, or whatever. Why piss on someone that posts they like what they are seeing with the Leafs play of late? Even if you think Im burying my head in the sand about my observations, what makes it so important to you to dispel the notion that I think they are playing well right now? Give it a break. Some of us just like watching the games, forming opinions and observations. If you think they will crash and burn, I can respect that opinion, but it doesn't mean you stand for us all on that. Lighten up man.

Are you joking?

I've gone out of my way to tell you that I too am enjoying the current success.

The ONLY thing you're being challenged on is the notion that somehow it's sustainable.

This isn't a team playing way over their heads anymore that will come crashing down at anytime. They are playing a sound system, and gaining confidence with every win. Id say, despite where we stand right now, we're heading closer to a playoff position than we are to a good lottery spot.

Not many people on these boards wanted to buy into the 'hype' of what an excellent coach like Babcock could bring to this team. Now we are starting to see it first hand. I realize Reimer has been a big reason for the success of late, but without the better defensive play in front of him, he wouldn't be playing nearly as well.

You've been shown facts to show that this is not the case, it's fine wanting them to do well, but stating that certain things are going to happen because of things you perceive them to be doing well and then completely ignoring people when they show you that it's not the case, is really strange.

 

[Redleaf]

Well, when we get there we can have that discussion, right? Right now the 'team' is playing well enough to secure some victories. Why rain on that with what you think will happen in 6 weeks times, or whatever. Why piss on someone that posts they like what they are seeing with the Leafs play of late? Even if you think Im burying my head in the sand about my observations, what makes it so important to you to dispel the notion that I think they are playing well right now? Give it a break. Some of us just like watching the games, forming opinions and observations. If you think they will crash and burn, I can respect that opinion, but it doesn't mean you stand for us all on that. Lighten up man.

Are you joking?

I've gone out of my way to tell you that I too am enjoying the current success.

The ONLY thing you're being challenged on is the notion that somehow it's sustainable.

This isn't a team playing way over their heads anymore that will come crashing down at anytime. They are playing a sound system, and gaining confidence with every win. Id say, despite where we stand right now, we're heading closer to a playoff position than we are to a good lottery spot.

Not many people on these boards wanted to buy into the 'hype' of what an excellent coach like Babcock could bring to this team. Now we are starting to see it first hand. I realize Reimer has been a big reason for the success of late, but without the better defensive play in front of him, he wouldn't be playing nearly as well.

You've been shown facts to show that this is not the case, it's fine wanting them to do well, but stating that certain things are going to happen because of things you perceive them to be doing well and then completely ignoring people when they show you that it's not the case, is really strange.

The only way you can show me 'that's not the case' is to be able to predict the future. So as much as you want to bring up likelihood scenarios, that is all they are, and not the solid evidence you seem to think you have about how this teams play will unfold this season. At most, what I've been 'shown' is a more likely outcome of what I think. Does that make it certian? Hardly. You know for certain what will happen to the Leafs this season as much as you know will win the cup. Don't pretend you know something you don't. At least I'll admit mine are just observations. Your toting around your predictions as being fact.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Give it a break. Some of us just like watching the games, forming opinions and observations. If you think they will crash and burn, I can respect that opinion, but it doesn't mean you stand for us all on that. Lighten up man.

I'm on the opposite side of this argument than you but you'd probably right about this. We can be a little too quick to scream "REGRESSION, REGRESSION!" in the faces of people who might not be all that interested in that part of the game.

Now I do wonder if there's a little bit of middle ground in this argument. The Leafs CF has dropped this month, by a large amount. I showed before how in October they were basically a top-5 team and in November they've basically been a bottom-5 team. That's pretty drastic, and I do think that I've seen that difference on the ice.

Their possession numbers in November are 45.2%. Under Randy last season the Leafs were a 44.9% team. But does anybody really have the same feeling watching this team as they did Randy's team? I don't really feel like they've been constantly under attack like they were in the past. I'm not entirely sure if I trust these numbers 100% but WOI has the Leafs Scoring Chances in November to be about even (48.9%) and their High-Danger Chances to be in their favour (53%). Those are both massive improvements over what we saw last season with Carlyle (43.7%, 44%). So even with the teams poor possession numbers this month there are still some positive signs we can point to.

 

[bustaheims]

Their possession numbers in November are 45.2%. Under Randy last season the Leafs were a 44.9% team. But does anybody really have the same feeling watching this team as they did Randy's team? I don't really feel like they've been constantly under attack like they were in the past. I'm not entirely sure if I trust these numbers 100% but WOI has the Leafs Scoring Chances in November to be about even (48.9%) and their High-Danger Chances to be in their favour (53%). Those are both massive improvements over what we saw last season with Carlyle (43.7%, 44%). So even with the teams poor possession numbers this month there are still some positive signs we can point to.

There are definitely changes. They're not getting hemmed in for the same long periods of time that they were under Carlyle - but, they are still getting hemmed in for stretches. In November, they're creating more scoring chances for themselves rather than doing a significantly better job of limiting them from the other team (which is something they did in October), which helps to account for some of the improvements there. This month's scoring chances against per 60 is roughly on par with last season's. Recently, I've definitely noticed they've gone long stretches without really having control of the puck or getting into the other team's end for anything more than to facilitate a line change. What they have been doing a better job of this season is clearing the puck out of the defensive end, which definitely makes it feel like they're not under attack as much. Unfortunately, I don't think they've improved much in terms of puck recovery, and that seems to be more of an issue with the guys on the ice rather than the guys behind the bench - most of the Leafs just aren't very good at it, for a variety of different reasons.

 

[Tigger]

Yeah, the Leafs look like they're playing better overall ( compared to last year ), even if they're experiencing a drop in possession numbers currently and I think that's significant. I don't think a short term change is anything to get bent out of shape over though, for possession or special teams or goaltending.

One thing that I can't quite figure is perhaps the team is playing a bit differently in front of quality goaltending.

 

[Tigger]

But does anybody really have the same feeling watching this team as they did Randy's team?

I just read this, and though it's simplistic it kinda sums up how I feel about it...

?The way we were winning was just like (exchanging) chance for chance,? Kadri said. ?You knew that wasn?t going to keep up. It was mentally exhausting.? ( in regards to the first half of last year )

 

[Kin]

Now I do wonder if there's a little bit of middle ground in this argument. The Leafs CF has dropped this month, by a large amount. I showed before how in October they were basically a top-5 team and in November they've basically been a bottom-5 team. That's pretty drastic, and I do think that I've seen that difference on the ice.

Well the other thing for me though is that while CF% might very well be a sort of good indicator of long-term success I don't know that I'm won over by its use as instant analysis the way we're seeing. People are taking an individual line's numbers or a single game's numbers as proof of quality which I don't know I've seen a lot of evidence supporting.

 

[rdowdall]

Now I do wonder if there's a little bit of middle ground in this argument. The Leafs CF has dropped this month, by a large amount. I showed before how in October they were basically a top-5 team and in November they've basically been a bottom-5 team. That's pretty drastic, and I do think that I've seen that difference on the ice.

Well one of the things that people have been pointing to is Reimer's save percentage and saying that it isn't sustainable, which it really isn't.  However his record while posting that save percentage is also 5-1.  So that isn't sustainable as well.  If Reimer's save percentage drops to something like .920 or .925, isn't it conceivable that the team could go 3-2-1 or 3-1-2 in a similar span of games?  I mean it's .500 hockey, but if they played middling hockey over the rest of the season, it might be enough to get them out of the bottom five.

I'm with the people who don't like building a team to lose.  I think it would be great for the Leafs to play hard, get some results, be better than the predictors gave them credit for and then get the 1st or 2nd overall pick.  I realize that's a pipe dream. 

 

[Kin]

I'm with the people who don't like building a team to lose. 

Nobody "likes" it. It's just a recognition of how teams assemble top flight talent.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

I think it would be great for the Leafs to play hard, get some results, be better than the predictors gave them credit for and then get the 1st or 2nd overall pick.  I realize that's a pipe dream.

Not necessarily. The current situation is actually a good one. Some of the short-term guys, who are helping the team win right now, are building trade value. There will be plenty of time to start losing badly again after the sell-off occurs.  8)

 

[rdowdall]

I'm with the people who don't like building a team to lose. 

Nobody "likes" it. It's just a recognition of how teams assemble top flight talent.

Sorry, I mispoke.  I don't like that the current NHL landscape forces a team to bottom out in order to assemble top flight talent.  All I meant is that it would nice if they could finish 12th and still win the lottery and draft 1st overall. 

 

[hockeyfan1]

According to TSN's The Insiders Bob McKenzie, Babcock's mission is to raise the value of the team's assets, so that Lamoriello has something to work with come trade time.

All makes sense and judging by the rumours set forth of some teams interested in Bernier of all players, it will be almost a given for teams to become interested in the other Leafs as well. That is why it's so important on Babcock's part to continue to get this team up & going.

 

[Zee]

 

[Highlander]

looks like only 4 of the next 10 are winnable. Lets see how they do. If Riems keeps standing on his head then anything can happen.

 

[freer]

looks like only 4 of the next 10 are winnable. Lets see how they do. If Riems keeps standing on his head then anything can happen.

I am not sure why you think only 4 are winnable. They have played the good team better then the bad team.

 

[Highlander]

I was just chastised by Patrick for selling optimism, so this is my penance.  I hope everyone has a great weekend in this crazy world.  Inside I hope the Leafs win em all!

 

[Zee]

 

[LuncheonMeat]

I was just chastised by Patrick for selling optimism, so this is my penance.  I hope everyone has a great weekend in this crazy world.  Inside I hope the Leafs win em all!

I see what you did there, the ole reverse jinx.