Leafs 2015/2016 Schedule in 10 game chunks

[vm8444]

:-X wow the doom and gloom of tank nation on this thread of most knowledgable diehards know you can't compete for a cup without an elite #1 center and d-man I agree,

But damn I'm not partially enjoying this run of finally having some structure in their game.
I haven't seen much since Burns or Quinn more Burns.

Imagining adding Nylander Marner etc to this system and its hard not to feel like finally something may be happening here for the positive.

Not this being outshot by double and winning because of goaltending.(false hopes)

Careful what you hope for doesn't always pan out as planned.
Yakopov Rnh not clear elite #1's.
I get the love for Chychrum or Mathews but I'm putting my faith in Hunter finding Gezslaf types lower in the draft.



Meaning a little size sprinkling ......
Or sprinkling of a bit more size.
Love to add a Crouse type.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Fair enough. But do you honestly see this team collapsing the way they did under Carlyle?

They don't need to collapse. They just basically need to more or less do what they've done but with the unsustainable goaltending...not sustaining.

There were some people, and I'm sure we could find out who, that talked a big game about what Carlyle's coaching meant when the Leafs reeled off some improbable wins early last year too.

I can't argue with any of these points Nik. Lets see how the season unfolds. I'm just sharing my observations and predictions. Nastradamus, I aint.

For me it's all about goaltending.  A goalie playing great can cover up a lot of mistakes and help the team pick up a lot of points.  Which is why I suggested getting rid of Reimer now.  He keeps playing this well, his stock should be higher than last  year, although the market for goalies isn't really that great for asset return.  I know the team wants to win as much as possible, but it's better served by losing right now and securing a better draft position.  Maybe Reimer regresses soon and it all takes care of itself.

Yeah. I think if Reimer was traded or succumb to injury this team would be back to scraping by. Especially with the confidence that Bernier instills so far this year. The funny thing is, even when both goalies were playing poorly, this team was staying in games. To me that says, 'find me a good goalie, not necessarily a great one'

Or if he comes back down closer to his career average of .914, the Leafs will lose more than they win.

On the upside, it's good to see guys like Phaeuf, Lupul, P.A.P., Komarov, and Bozak putting up points and raising their trade values.

 

[herman]

On the upside, it's good to see guys like Phaneuf, Lupul, P.A.P., Komarov, and Bozak putting up points and raising their trade values.

That's my favourite thing about this little streak Reimer has backstopped. People have to want what you're trying to sell, and that was a difficulty at last year's deadline with the way they Carlyle'd every game.

I'd add Reimer, Boyes, JvR, Polak, and Spaling to that list. Froese and Acrobello probably get a few looks as pot sweeteners too when we take on salary cap mistakes for primo prospects and picks.

 

[Zee]

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

November is looking like a beaut!

Don't look now but Leafs are 3 points out of a playoff spot...

Don't worry, they're still 3 points out of the 2nd best lottery position too!

This is just a hunch, but unless something happens to Reimer, which isn't a stretch with his injury history, they are just going to continue to rack up points.

This isn't a team playing way over their heads anymore that will come crashing down at anytime. They are playing a sound system, and gaining confidence with every win. Id say, despite where we stand right now, we're heading closer to a playoff position than we are to a good lottery spot.

Not many people on these boards wanted to buy into the 'hype' of what an excellent coach like Babcock could bring to this team. Now we are starting to see it first hand. I realize Reimer has been a big reason for the success of late, but without the better defensive play in front of him, he wouldn't be playing nearly as well.

See, this just simply isn't true, it's repeating meaningless platitudes peddled by a lazy media.

They have gotten great goaltending, their PP and PK has been excellent, but 5v5 they've been on the decline all month and long term that is the best indicator of success.

Now they've played some good teams, so chances are their possession numbers will be better than they have been the past few weeks, but the goaltending will also regress some and the PP and PK will likely cool at least a little too.

Unless you're willing to talk about real tangible results of this improved "system" then it's just searching for an easy narrative.

For the record, I don't think they'll be a bottom five team this year, at least not until they start selling off players towards the deadline. But let's not pretend that the results they've had recently are something they aren't.

Except I don't follow the media all that closely, so these are my thoughts and observations, not those of a lazy narrative from the media. Other than that, bobs your uncle.

Fair enough, good job not addressing any of the facts Busta put to you though.

 

[bustaheims]

Fair enough, good job not addressing any of the facts Busta put to you though.

You noticed that, too, huh?

 

[Highlander]

I disagree with Frank, I think Reimer has bought into and practiced the head trajectory tracking system. You gotta admit, he has never played better or controlled his rebounds so well. Right now his save percentage is 7th in the league.  I think we jettison Bernier and let him find his confidence elsewhere. If Reims  can continue this level of goaltending, he may just be what we need going forward.  I realize that this is a huge if and that confidence can come and go, but he looks like he is a brand new goalie out there.
Gotta admit I always have loved this guy, was down on him after Game 7 and some very bad hockey between then and now, but he has stuck with it and is our infacto #1.

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

well at least they don't seem to get outshot 2-1 anymore...that's got to be some kind of improvement

 

[Redleaf]

November is looking like a beaut!

Don't look now but Leafs are 3 points out of a playoff spot...

Don't worry, they're still 3 points out of the 2nd best lottery position too!

This is just a hunch, but unless something happens to Reimer, which isn't a stretch with his injury history, they are just going to continue to rack up points.

This isn't a team playing way over their heads anymore that will come crashing down at anytime. They are playing a sound system, and gaining confidence with every win. Id say, despite where we stand right now, we're heading closer to a playoff position than we are to a good lottery spot.

Not many people on these boards wanted to buy into the 'hype' of what an excellent coach like Babcock could bring to this team. Now we are starting to see it first hand. I realize Reimer has been a big reason for the success of late, but without the better defensive play in front of him, he wouldn't be playing nearly as well.

See, this just simply isn't true, it's repeating meaningless platitudes peddled by a lazy media.

They have gotten great goaltending, their PP and PK has been excellent, but 5v5 they've been on the decline all month and long term that is the best indicator of success.

Now they've played some good teams, so chances are their possession numbers will be better than they have been the past few weeks, but the goaltending will also regress some and the PP and PK will likely cool at least a little too.

Unless you're willing to talk about real tangible results of this improved "system" then it's just searching for an easy narrative.

For the record, I don't think they'll be a bottom five team this year, at least not until they start selling off players towards the deadline. But let's not pretend that the results they've had recently are something they aren't.

Except I don't follow the media all that closely, so these are my thoughts and observations, not those of a lazy narrative from the media. Other than that, bobs your uncle.

Fair enough, good job not addressing any of the facts Busta put to you though.

Busta and I are like water and vinegar. I'm an observationalist and Busta's and analytics guy. If I say white, he says black. Our back and forth can go on for hours without a resolution or agreement. The only way I figure we could have a solution to our disagreement was to place a friendly wager at the beginning of the season about whether or not Babcock could get this team on an upward trajectory. I said he could. Busta said no way. Bet was good. Busta refused to take the friendly wager, insulted me and my suggestion, and here we are. Whats left to say?

 

[Highlander]

Redleaf, don't you know?ask Nik he will have and answer and solution for you? or some obtuse comment to make you happy. 

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Busta and I are like water and vinegar. I'm an observationalist and Busta's and analytics guy. If I say white, he says black. Our back and forth can go on for hours without a resolution or agreement. The only way I figure we could have a solution to our disagreement was to place a friendly wager at the beginning of the season about whether or not Babcock could get this team on an upward trajectory. I said he could. Busta said no way. Bet was good. Busta refused to take the friendly wager, insulted me and my suggestion, and here we are. Whats left to say?

Observations are fine, as long as they are based in reality. I mean it's silly to say that they are playing better recently when every single 5v5 metric shows the exact opposite.

I've enjoyed them trying to play a more structured defensive system, I've loved Reimer's resurgence and the special teams have really improved, but all of these things are unlikely to continue at that same level for the entire season.

The true mark of a good team is one that controls the possession when teams are at even strength, time and time again, the team that wins the cup in one of the handful of teams that have been the best in this regard over the entire season.

Simply put, it's the best indicator of current and potential future success. The Leafs have gotten steadily worse at this in November, so although you're seeing Reimer play well and the special teams helping but where it matters, the team has actually gotten worse this month, bottom five in the league level worse.

To just stick your head in the sand and ignore basic facts is both ignorant and obtuse.

This isn't a blog, it's a discussion board, if you toss out an opinion, expect people to discuss it's relative merit and why they may or may not agree with you. Simply saying "I'm not an analytics guy" is beneath you.

 

[Highlander]

Agreed it is a board that we all can discuss and disagree and with some be downright rude. However once and a while magic does happen and we have had a whiff of this in the last month and I have to admit I like the smell, regardless of analytics.  Chemistry is Alchemy and this mix may surprise a great deal. We have to admit, we know nothing or relatively nothing. Anything can happen.  So start Bernier in the next 20 games and expunge all hope. But it would be so boring.

 

[bustaheims]

For what it's worth, I'm not an analytics guy, I'm a facts guy; and when you present falsehoods as facts, I'm not going to let that slide - especially when you constantly repeat the same falsehoods when the facts have been clearly presented for you.

 

[Kin]

We have to admit, we know nothing or relatively nothing.

I thought only the Queen could use the royal we.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Agreed it is a board that we all can discuss and disagree and with some be downright rude. However once and a while magic does happen and we have had a whiff of this in the last month and I have to admit I like the smell, regardless of analytics.  Chemistry is Alchemy and this mix may surprise a great deal. We have to admit, we know nothing or relatively nothing. Anything can happen.  So start Bernier in the next 20 games and expunge all hope. But it would be so boring.

I get that you're in advertising so this kind of thing is your forte, but what in the name of flowery BS does this even mean?

I feel good watching them win, I feel good seeing Reimer have success, I feel good watching the special teams do well, but let's not let that be the entire story when clearly there is more to it.

I get that people have been so beaten down by the woes of this team that we want to cling to whatever positive is happening and nobody is saying not to, what we are saying is don't bring 50% of the facts to the table and present them as 100%.

 

[Highlander]

Ok Patrick, I am a dreamer, but it has always worked for me personally. Dream big and good things happen. All we can do is watch the season, if it turns out amazing (wonderful)  or  a train wreck (not so wonderful) , or what it was planned to be which is somewhere in between, probable leaning towards the train wreck. So I am in fact neither advocating or being a negatron, just sitting back and watching the ride.
Perhaps some of you feel the same way, perhaps not, just my humble opinion.

 

[L K]

Agreed it is a board that we all can discuss and disagree and with some be downright rude. However once and a while magic does happen and we have had a whiff of this in the last month and I have to admit I like the smell, regardless of analytics.  Chemistry is Alchemy and this mix may surprise a great deal. We have to admit, we know nothing or relatively nothing. Anything can happen.  So start Bernier in the next 20 games and expunge all hope. But it would be so boring.

It's a fundamental mischaracterization of what analytics are designed for.  They aren't meant to predict individual wins and losses, but what is likely to happen over time.

 

[Redleaf]

Busta and I are like water and vinegar. I'm an observationalist and Busta's and analytics guy. If I say white, he says black. Our back and forth can go on for hours without a resolution or agreement. The only way I figure we could have a solution to our disagreement was to place a friendly wager at the beginning of the season about whether or not Babcock could get this team on an upward trajectory. I said he could. Busta said no way. Bet was good. Busta refused to take the friendly wager, insulted me and my suggestion, and here we are. Whats left to say?

Observations are fine, as long as they are based in reality. I mean it's silly to say that they are playing better recently when every single 5v5 metric shows the exact opposite.

I've enjoyed them trying to play a more structured defensive system, I've loved Reimer's resurgence and the special teams have really improved, but all of these things are unlikely to continue at that same level for the entire season.

The true mark of a good team is one that controls the possession when teams are at even strength, time and time again, the team that wins the cup in one of the handful of teams that have been the best in this regard over the entire season.

Simply put, it's the best indicator of current and potential future success. The Leafs have gotten steadily worse at this in November, so although you're seeing Reimer play well and the special teams helping but where it matters, the team has actually gotten worse this month, bottom five in the league level worse.

To just stick your head in the sand and ignore basic facts is both ignorant and obtuse.

This isn't a blog, it's a discussion board, if you toss out an opinion, expect people to discuss it's relative merit and why they may or may not agree with you. Simply saying "I'm not an analytics guy" is beneath you.

I guess. But 'playing better' also needs to take into account Reimers play too doesn't it? I mean, it's not just the players passing the puck around and keeping better possession of it that determines whether a team is playing well. Goalies count as team members too, right? They are extremely important team members. They stand on their heads and win games for their 'team' all the time in the NHL. That's is partly what I mean when I say the team has been playing better. And for the record, I did say if Reimer were to get hurt or traded the 'team' would suffer and most likely start losing again.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I guess. But 'playing better' also needs to take into account Reimers play too doesn't it? I mean, it's not just the players passing the puck around and keeping better possession of it that determines whether a team is playing well. Goalies count as team members too, right? They are extremely important team members. They stand on their heads and win games for their 'team' all the time in the NHL. That's is partly what I mean when I say the team has been playing better. And for the record, I did say if Reimer were to get hurt or traded the 'team' would suffer and most likely start losing again.

Yes, but people have already addressed this and it's something else you've ignored.

Reimer isn't just playing better, he's playing at a level that, as far as I know, no NHL goalie has ever sustained over a full season. He is saving 95% of all shots at 5v5 this season. Of goalies that have played ten games this season, only Lundqvist has been better in terms of score adjusted sv%.

That has to come down and when it does, if they haven't fixed the fact that they are getting consistently outplayed at 5v5, then they are going to have a rude awakening.

 

[bustaheims]

Reimer isn't just playing better, he's playing at a level that, as far as I know, no NHL goalie has ever sustained over a full season.

The Sv% record for a goalie that started at least 40 games is .938 (Tim Thomas in 10-11). That's in all situations, though. His 5v5 Sv% that season was .9499. So, basically, if he can maintain it, Reimer would be posting one of the top 3 or so seasons of goaltending since they started tracking Sv%. I like Reimer a lot, but....