Leafs hire Kyle Dubas as assistant GM, Loiselle and Poulin Dismissed

[GhostofPotvin29]

Poulin, with 3 years left on his contract, was interviewed on the radio this morning so it doesn't sound as if he had any idea this was coming.

Yep, sounds like Shanahan heard that another team wanted Dubas and Shanahan wanted him badly enough to move quickly.

 

[Rebel_1812]

I don't know anything about this guy Dubas, but if this is the beginning of a major shift in philosophy why did it make sense to rehire the one guy who has more impact on the on-ice play and who has shown not the slightest inclination to change or modernize his coaching style?  If this is culture change, it's not even half-baked at best.

Yeah, it's pretty hard to put any of this in context when it's still attached to the significantly larger decisions to keep Nonis and Carlyle around.

I mean, I maybe appreciate that Shanahan didn't want to come in and just start firing people left and right but it seems like this is a worse approach where you have an entire organization with divided loyalties and agendas.

You make it sound like game of thrones

 

[cw]

I'm not completely up to date on the discussion on the use of "new" statistical analysis in hockey like Corsi or possession, etc. I have followed it some for years and some trends of advanced stats used in other sports.

Certainly from our debates using traditional stats around here, we developed a general consensus that they're limited in what they can tell us when comparing players or that  at the very least, we are better off looking deeper at them (ie pts scored per unit of ice time is an improved measure than pts per game).

When the CBA came along in 2006, a term some folks don't care for: "price performance" came along. But it's unavoidable and now a critical consideration within a cap system. Before 2006, we used to only have to evaluate talent. But now we have to consider the comparison of talent for price paid. Maybe a player not quite as talented for half the price is a better solution for a given club.

More than ever, competitive edge and ultimately Cup results can be affected by drafting and development and the contractual decisions teams make ... based upon things like price performance or statistical projections.

I think few would disagree with "Better statistical analysis can help make better decisions".

This young man has been a successful CHL GM so he talks hockey management language. He has used his stats for both drafting and helping his coach get the most out of his club. He admits he's not the foremost expert in this field. And the stats are not the only thing he relies on - they just help as an improvement in quality control of the decisions they make.

But having worked the problem to the extent he has, he's in a great position to evaluate what is currently out there with third parties There are companies who offer some of these advanced stats and analysis to NHL clubs. I presume he has a mandate to do so and a mandate to study how the Leafs could develop such an approach internally to be among the best if not the best in the NHL at this ... with the backing of MLSE's financial clout. And he's probably convinced Shanahan of the financial merits - how it could pay off.

It wouldn't surprise me if he had a portfolio for the implementation of acquiring and analyzing advanced stats and educating and communicating those to the organization and he may develop a staff under him to achieve that.

I don't think anyone has come up with astounding advanced stats in hockey yet but the Leafs might, taking the approach they appear to be with the hiring of this young manager. From that perspective, there's no guarantees but it's a good move.

I see Mike Penny is still scouting for the Leafs. Some years ago, when he was an assistant to Pat Quinn,  a reporter wrote about all the books of stats Mike kept. He was also involved in the implementation of a private scouting database on the internet for the Leafs. Kyle and he can probably have a pretty good conversation on this as Mike sure would know some of the history on hockey stats.

 

[cw]

I don't know anything about this guy Dubas, but if this is the beginning of a major shift in philosophy why did it make sense to rehire the one guy who has more impact on the on-ice play and who has shown not the slightest inclination to change or modernize his coaching style?  If this is culture change, it's not even half-baked at best.

Yeah, it's pretty hard to put any of this in context when it's still attached to the significantly larger decisions to keep Nonis and Carlyle around.

I mean, I maybe appreciate that Shanahan didn't want to come in and just start firing people left and right but it seems like this is a worse approach where you have an entire organization with divided loyalties and agendas.

Over the short term, maybe. But over the short term, they're not going to win a Cup anyway.

For the longer term, maybe he didn't see a GM right now that really overwhelmed him. Hiring the wrong guy that hangs around for a few years is likely to be worse than staying with Nonis for a year or so while he finds "the right guy" (for lack of a better term).

 

[Kin]

Over the short term, maybe. But over the short term, they're not going to win a Cup anyway.

For the longer term, maybe he didn't see a GM right now that really overwhelmed him. Hiring the wrong guy that hangs around for a few years is likely to be worse than staying with Nonis for a year or so while he finds "the right guy" (for lack of a better term).

If Shanahan conducted a full GM search and decided that the candidates out there weren't to his liking, alright(although that almost certainly didn't happen because we'd probably have heard about it). But for a novice hockey executive like Shanahan to look at the wealth of candidates out there and decide that none of them were good enough to run the Leafs without interviews?

But my statement there is probably less about Nonis, who's always seemed relatively perfunctory in his duties, and more about Carlyle.

 

[brothert]

At this point I really think Carlyle is basically a 'bench warmer' for the next guy.

I think he will be let go even if he gets the team to the playoffs.  Heck, I think the only thing that would save him would be a cup ring.  The assistant coaches will have more power and control over the team than Carlyle will.....

Next season is screaming "transition" so don't expect much and hope 2015-16 is the year.

 

[Highlander]

Yes it would be all our dreams to win the cup next year, or even the year after that.  I think we have a very competative team in creation and I and hope you would be happy to reach the playoffs and make it through a few rounds and see some exciting jump out of your seat hockey not seen since the last Boston series. And have a team with a high compete level every night.

 

[freer]

Yes it would be all our dreams to win the cup next year, or even the year after that.  I think we have a very competative team in creation and I and hope you would be happy to reach the playoffs and make it through a few rounds and see some exciting jump out of your seat hockey not seen since the last Boston series. And have a team with a high compete level every night.

at this point, I just want a team that does not get out shot by 10 every game.

 

[Bullfrog]

Same here. I found it difficult to enjoy many of the games last year because of how badly they were being out played.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

The thing I like most about this move is that, even if it is at the OHL level, Dubas has first-hand experience integrating analytics into the overall management of a team.  I think he recognized early in the Soo (or always knew so) that they were in tough with London, Windsor, Kitchener and being 600-700 km from southern Ontario so it was vital for them to gain an advantage any way they could.  What excites me is the way (and it was discussed somewhat yesterday by him) that the coach bought in and they used analytics to help them determine where and how to play certain players to maximize their contributions.  And as a fan of the Greyhounds myself, I think the biggest thing I noticed from his time with the team is that they have figured out a way to bring players in who transition almost seamlessly into the system they have in place.  They preach up-tempo, possession, force the play, be aggressive/hard on the puck and I think their ability to target these types of players is what helped them have such a surprisingly successful season.

He's not going to be some magician who turns nothing into something, but like when he was hired in the Soo and bought the entire staff Jonah Keri's book The Extra 2% - if he can provide that little extra something in a league that is increasingly very tight, then it will be a good hire.

At the very least, as Shanahan says, it is opening the team up to ideas and concepts that some have been scared to hear for awhile and that's a good thing.

EDIT: Also meant to add, Dubas mentioned the very promising discussions he had with Nonis as well about how to integrate what he does into the management of the team and that the discussions helped him make up his mind.  And Dubas seemed to be really interested to learn from Nonis as well.  I really think it could work if Nonis is genuinely interested in exploring this aspect further - it could be a good combination.

 

[Champ Kind]

And Dubas seemed to be really interested to learn from Nonis as well.  I really think it could work if Nonis is genuinely interested in exploring this aspect further - it could be a good combination.

This is a good point.  While I'm optimistic of this front office move, I really wonder how receptive Nonis will be to taking a newbie under his wing.  Sure, what choice does he have?  But at this point, he and Carlyle are quickly becoming a vestige of an old, redundant guard.  I mean, unless I'm missing something, the writing is not only the wall, it's written in HUGE LETTERS.  I think it would take a superhuman level of professionalism to train and help with the successful integration of your eventual replacement.

 

[Optimus Reimer]

Same here. I found it difficult to enjoy many of the games last year because of how badly they were being out played.

Hopefully this will result in a new coach pretty soon or Carlyle changes his system to adapt to the new regime.  Either way, there will be more changes to come that will hopefully provide us with more entertaining hockey. 

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

And Dubas seemed to be really interested to learn from Nonis as well.  I really think it could work if Nonis is genuinely interested in exploring this aspect further - it could be a good combination.

This is a good point.  While I'm optimistic of this front office move, I really wonder how receptive Nonis will be to taking a newbie under his wing.  Sure, what choice does he have?  But at this point, he and Carlyle are quickly becoming a vestige of an old, redundant guard.  I mean, unless I'm missing something, the writing is not only the wall, it's written in HUGE LETTERS.  I think it would take a superhuman level of professionalism to train and help with the successful integration of your eventual replacement.

I think Nonis is quite used to working in this fashion. I think it's been an easy transition for him to go from Burke to Shanny and it will most likely be as easy for him to bring in Dubas, it may even make it fun for him.

At any rate, I don't think there will be a problem from Nonis' end, he's use to working closely with others, but he also knows this is a business and often not a kind one anyway.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

And Dubas seemed to be really interested to learn from Nonis as well.  I really think it could work if Nonis is genuinely interested in exploring this aspect further - it could be a good combination.

This is a good point.  While I'm optimistic of this front office move, I really wonder how receptive Nonis will be to taking a newbie under his wing.  Sure, what choice does he have?  But at this point, he and Carlyle are quickly becoming a vestige of an old, redundant guard.  I mean, unless I'm missing something, the writing is not only the wall, it's written in HUGE LETTERS.  I think it would take a superhuman level of professionalism to train and help with the successful integration of your eventual replacement.

One would hope Nonis remembers that he was once a young 32 year old working with Burke in Vancouver and learning the GM ropes.  He's since replaced Burke as GM twice, so I think he should have a firsthand knowledge of how to be professional in that sort of situation.

 

[Bullfrog]

I think this is a good situation for Nonis. Though I'm sure he had influence over the composition of the current/past management team, he gets to start fresh now with a new boss and a new under-study. He may even get a new coach in a year or so.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

The possibilities...

But what he will be right off the bat is a champion of ?different,? someone who can push the envelope and use the Leafs ridiculous resources to give the front office intel that other teams lack.

A $150,000 smart-camera system installed at the Air Canada Centre to provide exclusive, never-before available video and data on everything from pass completions to zone entries?

Not a problem.

An entire analytics department with people tracking new and compelling info, as other NHL teams are currently doing and as Dubas had created on a shoestring budget ? with a ticket sales rep, an intern and a business manager doing the tracking ? in the Soo?

Easily doable here, on a whole different level.

...

?It?s the Leafs,? Dubas said of what he can bring to the table. ?The resources are plenty and that?s the part I?m most excited about the whole job? To take the resources that are available and try to continue to further our knowledge and the stuff that we?re collecting and trying to uncover new trends or inefficiencies and so forth.

?You have to find a way [despite budget limitations] in the Soo. I don?t envision that?s going to be a problem here.?

...

?It was just a conversation about hockey,? Dubas said of his lengthy chats with Shanahan and Nonis in recent weeks. ?How I see the game played and things that I think are important. I?m not going to rush in tomorrow and try to tell everybody how it is. That?s not really the way I am?

?I think in talking to a lot of NHL people, the hesitation that they get is when different independent [analytics] firms try to sell them a black box or magical potion for ?this is how to measure a players? value.? Everyone?s trying to get to, to use baseball, WAR ? wins above replacement ? and how to properly value guys. Right now in hockey, we?re not there yet.

?That?s been their main hesitation with this stuff. We?re in a process here of trying to deduce our way to what can make a successful team. And we?re a long way from there.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-dubas-hire-signals-new-era-for-maple-leafs/article19720921/

 

[ZBBM]

I don't know anything about this guy Dubas, but if this is the beginning of a major shift in philosophy why did it make sense to rehire the one guy who has more impact on the on-ice play and who has shown not the slightest inclination to change or modernize his coaching style?  If this is culture change, it's not even half-baked at best.

Yeah, it's pretty hard to put any of this in context when it's still attached to the significantly larger decisions to keep Nonis and Carlyle around.

I mean, I maybe appreciate that Shanahan didn't want to come in and just start firing people left and right but it seems like this is a worse approach where you have an entire organization with divided loyalties and agendas.

Over the short term, maybe. But over the short term, they're not going to win a Cup anyway.

For the longer term, maybe he didn't see a GM right now that really overwhelmed him. Hiring the wrong guy that hangs around for a few years is likely to be worse than staying with Nonis for a year or so while he finds "the right guy" (for lack of a better term).

Well, I was speaking more of Carlyle than Nonis.  Reupping this particular coach -- if you are going in a progressive direction -- made no sense whatsoever.  Unless, of course, Shanny has told Carlyle to change his stripes or else.  Fat chance of that, though.

My preference would have been for Shanahan to clean out the whole lot, Nonis included, but I can understand why he wouldn't go that far right out of the gate, with no experience himself running a club.

 

[Corn Flake]

The possibilities...

But what he will be right off the bat is a champion of ?different,? someone who can push the envelope and use the Leafs ridiculous resources to give the front office intel that other teams lack.

A $150,000 smart-camera system installed at the Air Canada Centre to provide exclusive, never-before available video and data on everything from pass completions to zone entries?

Not a problem.

An entire analytics department with people tracking new and compelling info, as other NHL teams are currently doing and as Dubas had created on a shoestring budget ? with a ticket sales rep, an intern and a business manager doing the tracking ? in the Soo?

Easily doable here, on a whole different level.

...

?It?s the Leafs,? Dubas said of what he can bring to the table. ?The resources are plenty and that?s the part I?m most excited about the whole job? To take the resources that are available and try to continue to further our knowledge and the stuff that we?re collecting and trying to uncover new trends or inefficiencies and so forth.

?You have to find a way [despite budget limitations] in the Soo. I don?t envision that?s going to be a problem here.?

...

?It was just a conversation about hockey,? Dubas said of his lengthy chats with Shanahan and Nonis in recent weeks. ?How I see the game played and things that I think are important. I?m not going to rush in tomorrow and try to tell everybody how it is. That?s not really the way I am?

?I think in talking to a lot of NHL people, the hesitation that they get is when different independent [analytics] firms try to sell them a black box or magical potion for ?this is how to measure a players? value.? Everyone?s trying to get to, to use baseball, WAR ? wins above replacement ? and how to properly value guys. Right now in hockey, we?re not there yet.

?That?s been their main hesitation with this stuff. We?re in a process here of trying to deduce our way to what can make a successful team. And we?re a long way from there.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-dubas-hire-signals-new-era-for-maple-leafs/article19720921/

NUMBERS!!!! NUMBERS!!!! GLORIOUS NUMBERS!!!

8) :-*

 

[Corn Flake]

This is a pretty interesting move by the Leafs, although I don't think the collective orgasm from many of the most critical of this Leafs regime was really warranted. 

I'm perfectly happy to have a guy with a strong understanding of new'ish stats (actually, old stats regurgitated in a different way) but I'm more interested in seeing what he can bring in the sense of collecting his own stats.  I doubt the Leafs hired him to read Corsi charts to them.

But like Dubas said, he's about a lot more than stats. This guy is recognized as an extremely bright guy who brings a whole ton of assets to the table - far more than being a numbers guru.

 

[ZBBM]

The possibilities...

But what he will be right off the bat is a champion of ?different,? someone who can push the envelope and use the Leafs ridiculous resources to give the front office intel that other teams lack.

A $150,000 smart-camera system installed at the Air Canada Centre to provide exclusive, never-before available video and data on everything from pass completions to zone entries?

Not a problem.

An entire analytics department with people tracking new and compelling info, as other NHL teams are currently doing and as Dubas had created on a shoestring budget ? with a ticket sales rep, an intern and a business manager doing the tracking ? in the Soo?

Easily doable here, on a whole different level.

...

?It?s the Leafs,? Dubas said of what he can bring to the table. ?The resources are plenty and that?s the part I?m most excited about the whole job? To take the resources that are available and try to continue to further our knowledge and the stuff that we?re collecting and trying to uncover new trends or inefficiencies and so forth.

?You have to find a way [despite budget limitations] in the Soo. I don?t envision that?s going to be a problem here.?

...

?It was just a conversation about hockey,? Dubas said of his lengthy chats with Shanahan and Nonis in recent weeks. ?How I see the game played and things that I think are important. I?m not going to rush in tomorrow and try to tell everybody how it is. That?s not really the way I am?

?I think in talking to a lot of NHL people, the hesitation that they get is when different independent [analytics] firms try to sell them a black box or magical potion for ?this is how to measure a players? value.? Everyone?s trying to get to, to use baseball, WAR ? wins above replacement ? and how to properly value guys. Right now in hockey, we?re not there yet.

?That?s been their main hesitation with this stuff. We?re in a process here of trying to deduce our way to what can make a successful team. And we?re a long way from there.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/mirtle-dubas-hire-signals-new-era-for-maple-leafs/article19720921/

NUMBERS!!!! NUMBERS!!!! GLORIOUS NUMBERS!!!

8) :-*

That's the undercurrent of Mirtle's argument IMO: analytics are the minimum that teams will need to implement to be competitive.  Dubas gets that.  But of course all analytics can ever tell you is how good a particular player is.  They are just an evaluative tool, ready to replace the eyeball-level opinions (however well-informed) of scouts who themselves are hard to evaluate.  All the analytics in the world won't make less talented players play better.  They could, however, make scouts better at their job.