Leafs @ Panthers - Mar. 29th, 7:30pm - TSN4, TSN 1050

[herman]

Forwards drafted 4th-10th from the 2005-2011 drafts:

Kadri is tied for 10th among 35 players in points per game. Tied for 7th in goals.

The average ended up being 0.22 goals per game and 0.55 points per game. So Kadri's above average in both cases.

Excelsior, Sir Carlton! I was going to do this, but then I got hungry and went to lunch instead.

 

[rdowdall]

Forwards drafted 4th-10th from the 2005-2011 drafts:

Kadri is tied for 10th among 35 players in points per game. Tied for 7th in goals.

The average ended up being 0.22 goals per game and 0.55 points per game. So Kadri's above average in both cases.

So do people expect Nylander to get higher point/goal totals, or will he slot in around where Kadri is?  I realize they are different draft years, but drafted at the same spot.

 

[Omallley]

He's no Scott Glennie...

(Great find, Carlton)

 

[Kin]

So do people expect Nylander to get higher point/goal totals, or will he slot in around where Kadri is?  I realize they are different draft years, but drafted at the same spot.

Nylander was #8 and Kadri #7 but no matter.

Anyways, I think that question highlights the limited use of looking at a prospect with draft position being too heavy a factor. I don't know that I expect anything concrete from Nylander but to the extent that I think a certain level of production is expected it's not based on where he was picked but what he's been able to do in the Swedish/American leagues as a teenager/20 year old and how he's looked as a Leaf so far.  That he was the 8th overall pick should, at this point, be largely irrelevant.

 

[herman]

So do people expect Nylander to get higher point/goal totals, or will he slot in around where Kadri is?  I realize they are different draft years, but drafted at the same spot.

I'd lean towards higher. Nylander's SHL numbers (as a teenager against grown men and former NHLers) was off the charts good. He tore the AHL a new one without really seeming to try.

Now, in what is still a small sample size, Nylander is acquitting himself quite well in most aspects of the NHL game. Well above average speed, puck handling abilities, passing, and shooting. While not a defensive stalwart, he still disrupts more than his fair share of plays coming the other way with slick stick checks and body positioning.

 

[bustaheims]

So do people expect Nylander to get higher point/goal totals, or will he slot in around where Kadri is?  I realize they are different draft years, but drafted at the same spot.

I imagine Nylander ends up similar to the guys at the very top of the list - in around 0.75 ppg. Anything more than that would would a fantastic bonus. It certainly looks like he may be capable of it, but it shouldn't be an expectation

 

[herman]

That he was the 8th overall pick should, at this point, be largely irrelevant.

Yup yup. Pick position does not make anyone a better player (see N. Yakupov most recently). It's just a shorthand for indicating the pedigree of the player and an estimate at the likelihood of long-term success.

Edit: there are also a lot of environmental factors in development that will affect the eventual production of the player, and those are different from team to team, from player to player, which really reduces the influence of the pick position further. The only place it comes into play 'directly' is in increasing the burden of expectation when players have to wear those labels that they had no control over; see Anthony Bennett or Andrea Bargnani for (an NBA) example -- if they were picked in the 2nd rd, no one would care.

 

[ZBBM]

Forwards drafted 4th-10th from the 2005-2011 drafts:

Kadri is tied for 10th among 35 players in points per game. Tied for 7th in goals.

The average ended up being 0.22 goals per game and 0.55 points per game. So Kadri's above average in both cases.

Thanks for running those numbers CTB.  Like I said, I would be interested in what the story is for all drafts, not just 2005-11.  I'm not asking you or anyone to do this, of course.

 

[ZBBM]

That he was the 8th overall pick should, at this point, be largely irrelevant.

Yup yup. Pick position does not make anyone a better player (see N. Yakupov most recently). It's just a shorthand for indicating the pedigree of the player and an estimate at the likelihood of long-term success.

Interesting.  Sounds like you guys have managed to talk yourselves out of caring whether we pick first, or 4th, or 10th, or 30th, this year. 

 

[herman]

That he was the 8th overall pick should, at this point, be largely irrelevant.

Yup yup. Pick position does not make anyone a better player (see N. Yakupov most recently). It's just a shorthand for indicating the pedigree of the player and an estimate at the likelihood of long-term success.

Interesting.  Sounds like you guys have managed to talk yourselves out of caring whether we pick first, or 4th, or 10th, or 30th, this year. 

The game isn't really about where we pick, but how often we can pick high potential players and develop them to reach or exceed that potential. Picking in the top 3 or 5 just increases those chances.

 

[Kin]

Interesting.  Sounds like you guys have managed to talk yourselves out of caring whether we pick first, or 4th, or 10th, or 30th, this year. 

Well, no. I'd like to pick first. You may have missed this in all the excitement but I'm of the opinion that the higher you draft the better the player is likely to be. Where we disagreed was in what that expectation should be for someone picked #7 and that it was disingenuous to lump him in with people chosen in the top 3 as a way of informing those opinions.

If the Leafs pick first they'll get to take Auston Matthews, who is putting up some bananas impressive numbers for a teenager in the Swiss league. Second, they'll get to take Patrik Laine who I thought looked fantastic at the WJC's and is likewise putting up good numbers. If the Leafs draft 4th or 7th or 10th I don't really know who they'll take. My expectations, however, won't be based on that draft position, they'll be based on what we see from that prospect between when he was drafted and when he becomes a Leaf(and, retroactively, what he did in junior). How many goals Logan Couture scores isn't likely to be a huge factor.

 

[ZBBM]

Interesting.  Sounds like you guys have managed to talk yourselves out of caring whether we pick first, or 4th, or 10th, or 30th, this year. 

Well, no. I'd like to pick first. You may have missed this in all the excitement but I'm of the opinion that the higher you draft the better the player is likely to be. Where we disagreed was in what that expectation should be for someone picked #7 and that it was disingenuous to lump him in with people chosen in the top 3 as a way of informing those opinions.

If the Leafs pick first they'll get to take Auston Matthews, who is putting up some bananas impressive numbers for a teenager in the Swiss league. Second, they'll get to take Patrik Laine who I thought looked fantastic at the WJC's and is likewise putting up good numbers. If the Leafs draft 4th or 7th or 10th I don't really know who they'll take. My expectations, however, won't be based on that draft position, they'll be based on what we see from that prospect between when he was drafted and when he becomes a Leaf(and, retroactively, what he did in junior). How many goals Logan Couture scores isn't likely to be a huge factor.

Oh, but they are.  They have to be, because the draft position itself is based on nothing more than expectations.  No draftee has ever played in the NHL, by definition.  Therefore, as you rightly point out nobody knows for certain how even a #1 will do (ask Alexandre) in the NHL.  You are taking Auston Matthews #1 based, not on his stats per se, but on your expectations of to what extent those stats will be replicated in the NHL.

There is no separating draft position from expectations, because draft position is nothing more than a ranking of expectations.

 

[ZBBM]

Nik, I might add that if you are accusing me of being disingenuous, then all I can say is that I have a hard time believing that you honestly set your expectations of our draftees based entirely upon what their performance between the draft and getting called up (or not).  Seriously?  C'mon now.

 

[Kin]

 
There is no separating draft position from expectations, because draft position is nothing more than a ranking of expectations.

Sure there is. Drafts and the players drafted from year to year vary in strength. Nobody was surprised that Erik Johnson turned out to be not as good a player as Sidney Crosby. If a team drafting makes a big reach and takes someone 10 places higher than they were expected to go your expectations don't have to go with them.

You yourself spent all sorts of time talking about how Travis Dermott and our expectations for him shouldn't be based on where he was drafted because, to you, he was unworthy of the spot.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Thanks for running those numbers CTB.  Like I said, I would be interested in what the story is for all drafts, not just 2005-11.  I'm not asking you or anyone to do this, of course.

From 1991-2011 there were 94 forwards drafted 4th-10th overall. Kadri ranks tied for 23rd in goals per game. And tied for 24th in points per game. Average is 0.22 goals per game, 0.54 points per game. So basically the same results.

edit: In case anyone's worried I'm spending way too much time on this, you can look up the stats on hockey-reference and then just copy and paste it into excel to get the averages and rankings

 

[ZBBM]

 
There is no separating draft position from expectations, because draft position is nothing more than a ranking of expectations.

Sure there is. Drafts and the players drafted from year to year vary in strength. Nobody was surprised that Erik Johnson turned out to be not as good a player as Sidney Crosby. If a team drafting makes a big reach and takes someone 10 places higher than they were expected to go your expectations don't have to go with them.

You yourself spent all sorts of time talking about how Travis Dermott and our expectations for him shouldn't should be based on where he was drafted because, to you, he was unworthy of the spot.

What I actually said, thank you.

 

[ZBBM]

Thanks for running those numbers CTB.  Like I said, I would be interested in what the story is for all drafts, not just 2005-11.  I'm not asking you or anyone to do this, of course.

From 1991-2011 there were 94 forwards drafted 4th-10th overall. Kadri ranks tied for 23rd in goals per game. And tied for 24th in points per game. Average is 0.22 goals per game, 0.54 points per game. So basically the same results.

What's significant about 1991 as the starting point?  Again, not trying to goad you into a PhD dissertation, but I said all drafts.

 

[Kin]

What I actually said, thank you.

Well, no. You said back and forth that the Leafs took him too high. That despite their obviously believing he was worth the #34 pick other people didn't and therefore he was a bad pick. But if draft position is all that determines expectations then his being taken 34th means we should expect from him an average sort of production as should be expected from a 34th pick.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

What's significant about 1991 as the starting point?  Again, not trying to goad you into a PhD dissertation, but I said all drafts.

Truthfully I just didn't feel like throwing Jaromir Jagr into the conversation. And if adding 14 years of draft history into the original 7 years didn't change the results in any way then I'm pretty confident in what they represent: Kadri's an above-average forward selection for where he was picked in the draft.

 

[Kin]

What's significant about 1991 as the starting point?  Again, not trying to goad you into a PhD dissertation, but I said all drafts.

Truthfully I just didn't feel like throwing Jaromir Jagr into the conversation. And if adding 14 years of draft history into the original 7 years didn't change the results in any way then I'm pretty confident in what they represent.

Also, the higher scoring rates of the 70's, 80's and early 90's seem fairly irrelevant to a player trying to produce in the modern NHL.