Leafs @ Panthers - Mar. 29th, 7:30pm - TSN4, TSN 1050

[CarltonTheBear]

Also, the higher scoring rates of the 70's, 80's and early 90's seem fairly irrelevant to a player trying to produce in the modern NHL.

Yeah, that too. We'd have to start looking at era-adjusted numbers then and that's way more work than I feel like doing for something that I've already proven.

 

[ZBBM]

What I actually said, thank you.

Well, no. You said back and forth that the Leafs took him too high. That despite their obviously believing he was worth the #34 pick other people didn't and therefore he was a bad pick. But if draft position is all that determines expectations then his being taken 34th means we should expect from him an average sort of production as should be expected from a 34th pick.

What you claimed (bolded quote from post at 1:38) is that your expectations won't be based on draft position.  What I maintain is simply that it's disingenuous to say that, unless you want us to really believe that you don't have different expectations for someone drafted #1 than for someone taken #238.  Is that what you believe?

 

[rdowdall]

So do people expect Nylander to get higher point/goal totals, or will he slot in around where Kadri is?  I realize they are different draft years, but drafted at the same spot.

Nylander was #8 and Kadri #7 but no matter.

Anyways, I think that question highlights the limited use of looking at a prospect with draft position being too heavy a factor. I don't know that I expect anything concrete from Nylander but to the extent that I think a certain level of production is expected it's not based on where he was picked but what he's been able to do in the Swedish/American leagues as a teenager/20 year old and how he's looked as a Leaf so far.  That he was the 8th overall pick should, at this point, be largely irrelevant.

Wait, Nylander was taken 8th?  Man, this changes everything. 

 

[Frank E]

edit: In case anyone's worried I'm spending way too much time on this, you can look up the stats on hockey-reference and then just copy and paste it into excel to get the averages and rankings

Nope, not worried, I'd rather you just do it thank you.

 

[ZBBM]

What's significant about 1991 as the starting point?  Again, not trying to goad you into a PhD dissertation, but I said all drafts.

Truthfully I just didn't feel like throwing Jaromir Jagr into the conversation. And if adding 14 years of draft history into the original 7 years didn't change the results in any way then I'm pretty confident in what they represent.

Also, the higher scoring rates of the 70's, 80's and early 90's seem fairly irrelevant to a player trying to produce in the modern NHL.

Aha!   

 

[Kin]

What you claimed (bolded quote from post at 1:38) is that your expectations won't be based on draft position.  What I maintain is simply that it's disingenuous to say that, unless you want us to really believe that you don't have different expectations for someone drafted #1 than for someone taken #238.  Is that what you believe?

I have different expectations for those two players but it's not based on draft position. I can't speak for you but after the draft last year my reaction wasn't "huh, so Connor McDavid is a better prospect than Tate Olsen? Who knew?"

And the draft doesn't go to #238.

 

[ZBBM]

What you claimed (bolded quote from post at 1:38) is that your expectations won't be based on draft position.  What I maintain is simply that it's disingenuous to say that, unless you want us to really believe that you don't have different expectations for someone drafted #1 than for someone taken #238.  Is that what you believe?

I have different expectations for those two players but it's not based on draft position. I can't speak for you but after the draft last year my reaction wasn't "huh, so Connor McDavid is a better prospect than Tate Olsen? Who knew?"

And the draft doesn't go to #238.

OK, I take you at your word, then.  As for me, mine are very much set by draft position, both absolute and relative to what I think the player's worth is (e.g. Dermott).  Nothing unreasonable about that.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

OK, I take you at your word, then.  As for me, mine are very much set by draft position, both absolute and relative to what I think the player's worth (e.g. Dermott).  Nothing unreasonable about that.

But you're still calling a player who is producing at an above-average rate relative to his draft position mildly disappointing offensively. That does seem unreasonable.

 

[Kin]

OK, I take you at your word, then.  As for me, mine are very much set by draft position, both absolute and relative to what I think the player's worth is (e.g. Dermott).  Nothing unreasonable about that.

Ok. I'm glad you approve of your own opinions.

 

[ZBBM]

OK, I take you at your word, then.  As for me, mine are very much set by draft position, both absolute and relative to what I think the player's worth (e.g. Dermott).  Nothing unreasonable about that.

But you're still calling a player who is producing at an above-average rate relative to his draft position mildly disappointing offensively. That does seem unreasonable.

Once more ... my remark was based on all drafts.

 

[ZBBM]

OK, I take you at your word, then.  As for me, mine are very much set by draft position, both absolute and relative to what I think the player's worth is (e.g. Dermott).  Nothing unreasonable about that.

Ok. I'm glad you approve of your own opinions.

And I'm glad you approve of my self-approval.  I needed that validation.

 

[Kin]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZuktUfF0nE[/youtube]

 

[CarltonTheBear]

OK, I take you at your word, then.  As for me, mine are very much set by draft position, both absolute and relative to what I think the player's worth (e.g. Dermott).  Nothing unreasonable about that.

But you're still calling a player who is producing at an above-average rate relative to his draft position mildly disappointing offensively. That does seem unreasonable.

Once more ... my remark was based on all drafts.

I gave you 20 years of draft history man. You're being ridiculous if you really think that doesn't mean anything.

 

[ZBBM]

OK, I take you at your word, then.  As for me, mine are very much set by draft position, both absolute and relative to what I think the player's worth (e.g. Dermott).  Nothing unreasonable about that.

But you're still calling a player who is producing at an above-average rate relative to his draft position mildly disappointing offensively. That does seem unreasonable.

Once more ... my remark was based on all drafts.

I gave you 20 years of draft history man. You're being ridiculous if you really think that doesn't mean anything.

It means something.  But what it means may not be the same thing that looking at all drafts mean.  My assertion referenced all drafts for a reason, you see....  even so, I might still be wrong if someone ran all the numbers.  But the stakes are so low it's hardly worth it.

 

[ZBBM]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZuktUfF0nE[/youtube]

I loves you, man.

 

[L K]

Going back to 1963 (that covers 52 drafts and that means ALL NHL drafts) Nazem Kadri sits:

24th in goals, 28th in assists and 29th in points for 7th overall draft picks.  Jeff Skinner is the only player who is ahead of Kadri despite being drafted in 2010 while Kadri was drafted in 2009.  If Kadri only plays to 30 he'll be in the top 15 for his draft position.  If he play a full career to 35 with a .1 PPG drop off for each year beyond 32 he would finish in the top 10 for 7th overall draft picks.  The notion that he's below average offensively is ridiculous.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Going back to 1963 (that covers 52 drafts and that means ALL NHL drafts) Nazem Kadri sits:

24th in goals, 28th in assists and 29th in points for 7th overall draft picks.  Jeff Skinner is the only player who is ahead of Kadri despite being drafted in 2010 while Kadri was drafted in 2009.  If Kadri only plays to 30 he'll be in the top 15 for his draft position.  If he play a full career to 35 with a .1 PPG drop off for each year beyond 32 he would finish in the top 10 for 7th overall draft picks.  The notion that he's below average offensively is ridiculous.

Meaningless. Please go into the future and include all drafts until the year 3052.

 

[bustaheims]

I gave you 20 years of draft history man. You're being ridiculous if you really think that doesn't mean anything.

Which, by the way, represents roughly 40% of entry drafts in the league's history, which is significantly more than a representative sample - and, if you included those early drafts, the numbers likely drop significantly, as teams really had a really poor understanding of what they were doing in those early years. If you want to include all drafts, you also have to adjust totals based scoring levels and a number of other factors that would basically end up with you coming up with similar results to what you found.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Going back to 1963 (that covers 52 drafts and that means ALL NHL drafts) Nazem Kadri sits:

24th in goals, 28th in assists and 29th in points for 7th overall draft picks.  Jeff Skinner is the only player who is ahead of Kadri despite being drafted in 2010 while Kadri was drafted in 2009.  If Kadri only plays to 30 he'll be in the top 15 for his draft position.  If he play a full career to 35 with a .1 PPG drop off for each year beyond 32 he would finish in the top 10 for 7th overall draft picks.  The notion that he's below average offensively is ridiculous.

The dude clearly said all drafts.  You're only looking at 52 years of NHL drafts, while completely ignoring NBA, NFL and MLB.

 

[ZBBM]

Going back to 1963 (that covers 52 drafts and that means ALL NHL drafts) Nazem Kadri sits:

24th in goals, 28th in assists and 29th in points for 7th overall draft picks.  Jeff Skinner is the only player who is ahead of Kadri despite being drafted in 2010 while Kadri was drafted in 2009.  If Kadri only plays to 30 he'll be in the top 15 for his draft position.  If he play a full career to 35 with a .1 PPG drop off for each year beyond 32 he would finish in the top 10 for 7th overall draft picks.  The notion that he's below average offensively is ridiculous.

Waaaa you didn't run the numbers for all Top 10 draftees like I asked waaaaa waaaaa

Anyway, so you're saying he's 24th in goals, 28th in assists, and 29th in points out of the 52 7th-pick draftees since the beginning of the draft?  Sounds like a little above the median, a little below, and a little below, yes?