Leafs @ Rangers - Nov. 15th, 7:00pm - SN, TSN 1050

[GhostofPotvin29]

It's impossible to defend Bernier's play lately but all this burying him alive reaction is surely overstated.  The brain trust gave him a 2-year deal over the summer for a reason.  Yes, he will sit for a good long while and deserves to.  But his career is far from over.  This is a guy who is obviously fighting confidence problems.  In some ways he's in the same boat as Kadri.

It's been more than just a short blip though:

@mirtle 

Jonathan Bernier has seven wins and a .9025 save percentage in his last 40 games. That's a long time.

And I don't think he and Kadri are in the same boat.  Kadri doesn't look like he has confidence issues, he's playing some of the best hockey he's played in the NHL.

He's in the same boat as Kadri in terms of not get rewarded for playing well more often than not.  Most of the game last night, and on other nights this season, Bernier was solid.  It's just that in his position one major mistake is enough to cost you the game.  You certainly can't weather two gaffes, as he turned in last night.

As for his save percentage over the last 40 games, 30+ were with last year's dog's breakfast of a team.  I don't hold that against him.

Again, not trying to defend his recent play.  I just think that writing him off is premature.

I think a good goalie would have a respectable SV% even in front of a dog's breakfast (or even a cat's lunch) of a team.  Neither one has really taken the reins over the long haul.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

It's been more than just a short blip though:

@mirtle 

Jonathan Bernier has seven wins and a .9025 save percentage in his last 40 games. That's a long time.

Your right in regards to Bernier but I mean look at how the whole fanbase has jumped on Reimer's bandwagon after just a "short blip" of good games. In the 39* games prior to Bernier getting injured Reimer only had 10 wins and a .9075 Sv%.

* The 4 this season and his 35 games last season, didn't feel like going back to 13/14 just to hit that 40 game mark.

And if you're looking at the same time frame that was used to get Bernier's 40 games (Dec. 31, 14) then Reimer has just 4 wins in 24 games and a .9042 Sv%. Basically the same numbers are Bernier's. Then Reimer got hot for a couple of weeks while Bernier was injured.

I'm not entirely sure what point I'm trying to make. All of these numbers would suggest that neither of these goalies are really likely to take us anywhere. Reimer's gone from zero to hero because of 2 weeks worth of play, and I'm happy for him because like I've said in the past I'm a big fan of the guy. But the people who are screaming for Reimer to be the undisputed number 1 and saying that Bernier shouldn't even be in the NHL because of a difference of 7 games are obviously overreacting.

I guess people's counter to that would be that Reimer was never really getting a consistent run of games before, but I wasn't really trying to argue for Reimer in my post.

EDIT:

But because I'd rather do this then work, if you look at that time period you referred to above (from Dec. 31,2014):

Reimer, 31 games, .939 SV% at 5v5
Bernier, 40 games, .909 SV% at 5v5

source: waronice.com

 

[Tigger]

Yeah, neither are getting the Leafs to the promised land but Reimer has played better this year, for the most part, so I'd give him the reins for the time being, it's not like there are a host of alternatives.

 

[bustaheims]

He's in the same boat as Kadri in terms of not get rewarded for playing well more often than not.  Most of the game last night, and on other nights this season, Bernier was solid. It's just that in his position one major mistake is enough to cost you the game.  You certainly can't weather two gaffes, as he turned in last night.

As for his save percentage over the last 40 games, 30+ were with last year's dog's breakfast of a team.  I don't hold that against him.

Again, not trying to defend his recent play.  I just think that writing him off is premature.

Part of the problem with Bernier is that he's making these major gaffes just about every game, and has for some time now. That's not something you can overlook when talking about your starting goalie. You're basically asking your team to score an extra goal every game in a league where it's becoming increasingly harder to score goals.

He has the talent to be better than this. The problem with Bernier seems to be entire between his ears, and, while that's likely fixable, you can't bank on it. Issues on the mental side of the game have derailed many a promising career.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

But because I'd rather do this then work, if you look at that time period you referred to above (from Dec. 31,2014):

Reimer, 31 games, .939 SV% at 5v5
Bernier, 40 games, .909 SV% at 5v5

source: waronice.com

My time frame was technically Dec. 31 to Nov. 1 because I wanted to show how prior to this "short blip" from Reimer the two had very identical stats. So if you look at their 5v5 Sv% then it's .9213 vs. .9109. Still in Reimer's favour but both would seem to be around league average (I'm not entirely sure what this is for EV Sv%).

But regardless, my main (and maybe slightly hidden) point was that if Bernier's next 3 starts are quality starts then all this talk about him not being an NHL goalie is forgotten. Reimer's "short blip" of above-average goaltending is proof of that.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

But because I'd rather do this then work, if you look at that time period you referred to above (from Dec. 31,2014):

Reimer, 31 games, .939 SV% at 5v5
Bernier, 40 games, .909 SV% at 5v5

source: waronice.com

My time frame was technically Dec. 31 to Nov. 1 because I wanted to show how prior to this "short blip" from Reimer the two had very identical stats. So if you look at their 5v5 Sv% then it's .9213 vs. .9109. Still in Reimer's favour but both would seem to be around league average (I'm not entirely sure what this is for EV Sv%).

But regardless, my main (and maybe slightly hidden) point was that if Bernier's next 3 starts are quality starts then all this talk about him not being an NHL goalie is forgotten. Reimer's "short blip" of above-average goaltending is proof of that.

I think league average is typically around .921-.923-ish.  I imagine career they're both probably right around league average or just below.

 

[Kin]

So maybe I'm missing something here but should what I'm reading here be a sign that there were people who went into this year really thinking that Bernier or Reimer might be the team's #1 goalie when they emerged from the rebuild?

 

[ZBBM]

He's in the same boat as Kadri in terms of not get rewarded for playing well more often than not.  Most of the game last night, and on other nights this season, Bernier was solid. It's just that in his position one major mistake is enough to cost you the game.  You certainly can't weather two gaffes, as he turned in last night.

As for his save percentage over the last 40 games, 30+ were with last year's dog's breakfast of a team.  I don't hold that against him.

Again, not trying to defend his recent play.  I just think that writing him off is premature.

Part of the problem with Bernier is that he's making these major gaffes just about every game, and has for some time now. That's not something you can overlook when talking about your starting goalie. You're basically asking your team to score an extra goal every game in a league where it's becoming increasingly harder to score goals.

He has the talent to be better than this. The problem with Bernier seems to be entire between his ears, and, while that's likely fixable, you can't bank on it. Issues on the mental side of the game have derailed many a promising career.

Undoubtedly.  Yet at the same time, they chose to sign him, not Reimer.  I don't know what the calculus was there, but they could have chosen the other way round. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So maybe I'm missing something here but should what I'm reading here be a sign that there were people who went into this year really thinking that Bernier or Reimer might be the team's #1 goalie when they emerged from the rebuild?

I mean I think that the general vibe was that Bernier was in a wait-and-see mode with his 2-year deal while most people fully expected Reimer to be gone after this season.

 

[bustaheims]

Undoubtedly.  Yet at the same time, they chose to sign him, not Reimer.  I don't know what the calculus was there, but they could have chosen the other way round.

Well, they had to sign Bernier if they wanted him for the season, as his contract was up. They didn't have to sign Reimer, since he still had a year left on his. Taking anything further from the situation is reading into it what you want to believe. I mean, it's not like they signed either to long-term deals.

 

[Frank E]

I guess people's counter to that would be that Reimer was never really getting a consistent run of games before, but I wasn't really trying to argue for Reimer in my post.

EDIT:

But because I'd rather do this then work, if you look at that time period you referred to above (from Dec. 31,2014):

Reimer, 31 games, .939 SV% at 5v5
Bernier, 40 games, .909 SV% at 5v5

source: waronice.com

Wow.  I did not know that.

 

[ZBBM]

Undoubtedly.  Yet at the same time, they chose to sign him, not Reimer.  I don't know what the calculus was there, but they could have chosen the other way round.

Well, they had to sign Bernier if they wanted him for the season, as his contract was up. They didn't have to sign Reimer, since he still had a year left on his. Taking anything further from the situation is reading into it what you want to believe. I mean, it's not like they signed either to long-term deals.

I'm not really reading anything into it other than they could have let Bernier walk if they had thought Reimer was the clear cut answer, even short term.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm not really reading anything into it other than they could have let Bernier walk if they had thought Reimer was the clear cut answer, even short term.

Well, that has nothing to do with not signing Reimer when they weren't in a position where that was necessary. In fact, the way things played out, it tells me they don't believe either is the answer, but they know they need to have a couple NHL calibre goalies on the roster until they find the answer.

 

[ZBBM]

I'm not really reading anything into it other than they could have let Bernier walk if they had thought Reimer was the clear cut answer, even short term.

Well, that has nothing to do with not signing Reimer when they weren't in a position where that was necessary.

?  I know we are essentially agreeing but they could have (a) let Bernier simply go, as I said, or (b) offered Bernier a 1-year deal for this year, with the idea that they could re-sign Reimer this year to an extension.  It's not like Reimer is in a position to hold the Leafs hostage to free agency.

They both probably have a future in the league in some capacity, rather like the Monster than as a starter.  My hunch, anyway.

 

[Kin]

I mean I think that the general vibe was that Bernier was in a wait-and-see mode with his 2-year deal while most people fully expected Reimer to be gone after this season.

I suppose that's hard for me to reconcile the idea that they were going to be bad enough at this stage in their respective careers(being 27) that the Leafs would get those high picks to begin with yet good enough at 30 or 31 or 32 to be that guy.

I guess I just don't understand the frustration some people are showing. It's like, yeah, they're middling goalies. Who is that a shock too?

 

[Frank E]

I mean I think that the general vibe was that Bernier was in a wait-and-see mode with his 2-year deal while most people fully expected Reimer to be gone after this season.

I suppose that's hard for me to reconcile the idea that they were going to be bad enough at this stage in their respective careers(being 27) that the Leafs would get those high picks to begin with yet good enough at 30 or 31 or 32 to be that guy.

I guess I just don't understand the frustration some people are showing. It's like, yeah, they're middling goalies. Who is that a shock too?

I don't think people are genuinely disappointed necessarily, but I do think they were hoping for better than bad...like, average goaltending from the guy that went to arbitration.

I also think people are taking positions on one or the other because the Leafs are unlikely to keep both after the deadline.  A tandem of Bernier and Reimer doesn't look as bad as Bernier and Bibeau, or whoever. 

 

[bustaheims]

I also think people are taking positions on one or the other because the Leafs are unlikely to keep both after the deadline.  A tandem of Bernier and Reimer doesn't look as bad as Bernier and Bibeau, or whoever.

While that's true, in the short-term, for the Leafs, bad is good.

Really, though, they should just move whoever they get the best offer on. If neither are long-term solutions, it really doesn't matter who sticks around.

 

[Frank E]

I also think people are taking positions on one or the other because the Leafs are unlikely to keep both after the deadline.  A tandem of Bernier and Reimer doesn't look as bad as Bernier and Bibeau, or whoever.

While that's true, in the short-term, for the Leafs, bad is good.

Really, though, they should just move whoever they get the best offer on. If neither are long-term solutions, it really doesn't matter who sticks around.

I agree, of course, but that being the plan doesn't mitigate the frustration of watching Bernier blow easy saves.

Like I said, I think people were hoping for average goaltending between the 2.  I thought this team's lack of success would be more attributed to the lack of talent in the top 6, and not as much to shoddy goaltending. 

I was wrong.  When Bernier is playing, it's both. 

 

[Kin]

I don't think people are genuinely disappointed necessarily, but I do think they were hoping for better than bad...like, average goaltending from the guy that went to arbitration.

So they were hoping for goaltending just good enough to drag the Leafs out of the basement and into drafting 8th or 9th?

 

[Frank E]

So they were hoping for goaltending just good enough to drag the Leafs out of the basement and into drafting 8th or 9th?

Like I said, I think people were hoping for average goaltending between the 2.  I thought this team's lack of success would be more attributed to the lack of talent in the top 6, and not as much to shoddy goaltending. 

I was wrong.  When Bernier is playing, it's both.