Corn Flake said:
But what constitutes a home run in UFA signings these days? Has there been one recently? There are far far more strikeouts than home runs for sure.
MacArthur might be the closest thing to one.
Before the lockout, UFA age was 31 (in the vast majority of cases). They'd sign those guys for 4-5 years and they would often tail off by year two.
With the 27 yr age for UFAs, I don't think there are as many bad deals.
In a lot of UFA cases, the guy gets premium dollars for a peak performance. But most of them cannot sustain that peak level. Because they get so much dough, it's harder for many of them to ever become "home runs". Most of them that do ok have merely done well enough to not be seen as a rip off.
The majority of "home runs" are probably guys like MacArthur or Vokoun/Prospal (maybe this season) where a team got them for a low price/short term and they deliver close to their peak performance.
When the UFA market has been as barren as it has the last couple of summers, it's really hard to find a great top 6 signing of an elite player for any team because so few have been available.
Connolly was an obvious risk. Burke had money to burn with ample cap space and aside from the Richards sweepstakes, there were no decent top 6 centers to be had. To me, the deal was almost one Burke couldn't lose even if Connolly is injured a lot because MLSE aren't going to suffer terribly financially like a small market team. If Connolly goes on LTIR, it's just money lost - it really doesn't even cost them much in cap space.
Until the summer of 2013, I'm not sure there's a lot that's very exicting on the UFA market. But like the lottery, if you don't play, you can't win. In a no-lose situation, you might as well play.