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Maple Leafs are better, but are they a playoff team?

If we win the next ten I reckon we get in. However I also reckon if we win the next ten we probably lose the following twelve :D
 
Sarge said:
I haven't given up hope. 22-15-0 just seems like a bit of a stretch to me. I'm maintaining my positive outlook under the feeling that A) We're in better shape than last year at this time and B) If/when we don't make the playoffs, we have more attractive moveable pieces to offer contending clubs than last year too.

I haven't totally given up either, and the only saving grace for me if the Leafs miss the playoffs is my assumption that Ron Wilson will finally be relieved of his coaching duties.  Of course if the Leafs miss the playoffs, and Ron Wilson somehow remains on as coach next season, I really think I'll stop watching the Leafs.
 
Zee said:
Bullfrog said:
But there's very value in selectively removing games. The fact is they're going to win a certain number and they're going to lose a certain number of games; you have to count them all.

Erndog says they have to go 22-15-0 (or thereabouts) to make the playoffs. That's really not far off from their current record of 22-18-5.

So arbitrarily removing the first 9 games then saying the leftover record is really not a valuable exercise. How do we know they won't fire off a 5 game winning streak?

Going 22-15 would be a .594%, the Leafs current record of 22-18-5 is a .544% so even by that measurement it's not good enough.  22-15 is winning more games than you lose, 22-18-5 is winning 22 and losing 23.  Note I'm just looking at POINTS for percentages with the loser OT point counting, so if you look at the Leafs record in terms of wins and losses, we've lost more than we've won.

But looking at it in terms of wins and losses isn't prudent, because OTL losses count as points. So it's disingenuous of you to ignore those points.

Besides, if we're going to play funny games with the standings, two of their OTL points are from shoot-out losses (ties in the old standings.) so, they'd be 22-21-2, which is winning one more game than losing.
 
Significantly Insignificant said:
Bullfrog said:
Zee said:
Yeah the 7-2-1 start really skewed the perception of this team.  Since then the Leafs are 15-16-4, or 15 wins and 20 losses.  That's not good enough by any stretch of the imagination.

But there's very value in selectively removing games. The fact is they're going to win a certain number and they're going to lose a certain number of games; you have to count them all.

Erndog says they have to go 22-15-0 (or thereabouts) to make the playoffs. That's really not far off from their current record of 22-18-5.

So arbitrarily removing the first 9 games then saying the leftover record is really not a valuable exercise. How do we know they won't fire off a 5 game winning streak?

How do we know that they won't fire off a 5 game losing streak?  The problem is, that at least in my mind, that I see it being easier for them to lose than win.  Also, if they have to depend on a 5 game winning streak to get them in to the playoffs, that is a fairly tall order.  The reality is they will probably go 3-2 or 2-3 in their next five, which just isn't good enough.

3-2 is on pace for 22-15, which is what people has stated we need. So yes, it would be good enough.

The doom and gloom in this thread is depressing.
 
Zee said:
Bender said:
Zee said:
Sarge said:
Zee said:
Sarge said:
I really appreciate your enthusiasm nutman but this isn't looking like our year. I do believe it's a better/deeper squad than last year but still - just not good enough.

So you're saying Ottawa has more talent on the roster than the Leafs?  Cause they seem to be good enough this year for the playoffs.  At some point it's not the roster and it might be something else.

I really can't speak to how/why Ottawa is much better then us. I just now we don't stand a very good chance of getting in... There is still much work to be done here.

I have 3 reasons why Ottawa is better than the Leafs so far this year:

1) Paul MacLean is a better coach than Ron Wilson
2) Burke won't fire Wilson
3) see points 1 and 2

You kinda missed Craig Anderson. We don't have the same kind of goaltending Anderson is giving the Sens. Talk about coaching all you want, the Sens were hanging on by a thread against the Leafs and won because Anderson didn't let in any soft goals.

Yeah that's one game. Sens have beaten the Leafs 3 out of 4, I guess it's always Anderson.

I'm not sure why you're being sarcastic for to be honest. Look at Anderson's numbers, they are far better than what Reimer or Gustavsson have provided thus far. I don't know how you can't think that he's been a big reason as to why Ottawa has won as many games as they have this year.
 
Bullfrog said:
The doom and gloom in this thread is depressing.

Are you still reading Dawkins?

I just finished watching part 1 of The Enemies of Reason, think of it as pigeons looking over their left shoulder at the right moment for what they're pecking at ( it's on Google video, around the 35 minute mark... ), doesn't matter. :)
 
Bender said:
Zee said:
Bender said:
Zee said:
Sarge said:
Zee said:
Sarge said:
I really appreciate your enthusiasm nutman but this isn't looking like our year. I do believe it's a better/deeper squad than last year but still - just not good enough.

So you're saying Ottawa has more talent on the roster than the Leafs?  Cause they seem to be good enough this year for the playoffs.  At some point it's not the roster and it might be something else.

I really can't speak to how/why Ottawa is much better then us. I just now we don't stand a very good chance of getting in... There is still much work to be done here.

I have 3 reasons why Ottawa is better than the Leafs so far this year:

1) Paul MacLean is a better coach than Ron Wilson
2) Burke won't fire Wilson
3) see points 1 and 2

You kinda missed Craig Anderson. We don't have the same kind of goaltending Anderson is giving the Sens. Talk about coaching all you want, the Sens were hanging on by a thread against the Leafs and won because Anderson didn't let in any soft goals.

Yeah that's one game. Sens have beaten the Leafs 3 out of 4, I guess it's always Anderson.

I'm not sure why you're being sarcastic for to be honest. Look at Anderson's numbers, they are far better than what Reimer or Gustavsson have provided thus far. I don't know how you can't think that he's been a big reason as to why Ottawa has won as many games as they have this year.

"far better"?  Than Reimer sure but Anderson is at .910% (was a bit lower before the Leafs game) and Gustavsson was at .906 today (will be higher with the game tonight) so he's not that far off.
 
Zee said:
Bender said:
Zee said:
Bender said:
Zee said:
Sarge said:
Zee said:
Sarge said:
I really appreciate your enthusiasm nutman but this isn't looking like our year. I do believe it's a better/deeper squad than last year but still - just not good enough.

So you're saying Ottawa has more talent on the roster than the Leafs?  Cause they seem to be good enough this year for the playoffs.  At some point it's not the roster and it might be something else.

I really can't speak to how/why Ottawa is much better then us. I just now we don't stand a very good chance of getting in... There is still much work to be done here.

I have 3 reasons why Ottawa is better than the Leafs so far this year:

1) Paul MacLean is a better coach than Ron Wilson
2) Burke won't fire Wilson
3) see points 1 and 2

You kinda missed Craig Anderson. We don't have the same kind of goaltending Anderson is giving the Sens. Talk about coaching all you want, the Sens were hanging on by a thread against the Leafs and won because Anderson didn't let in any soft goals.

Yeah that's one game. Sens have beaten the Leafs 3 out of 4, I guess it's always Anderson.

I'm not sure why you're being sarcastic for to be honest. Look at Anderson's numbers, they are far better than what Reimer or Gustavsson have provided thus far. I don't know how you can't think that he's been a big reason as to why Ottawa has won as many games as they have this year.

"far better"?  Than Reimer sure but Anderson is at .910% (was a bit lower before the Leafs game) and Gustavsson was at .906 today (will be higher with the game tonight) so he's not that far off.

Ok, that's fine, but still, adequate goaltending is adequate goaltending and he has been a reason why they've been winning. Gustavsson has given us a chance to win as well lately but Anderson's also played twice as many games as Jonas. Maybe if Jonas played 40 games we'd be alright, but at the end of the day the Sens are where they are partially because of Anderson. And luckily Jonas is beginning to hold his own.

I still don't see the need for your sarcastic comment earlier, as my point is still valid.
 
Bullfrog said:
Significantly Insignificant said:
Bullfrog said:
Zee said:
Yeah the 7-2-1 start really skewed the perception of this team.  Since then the Leafs are 15-16-4, or 15 wins and 20 losses.  That's not good enough by any stretch of the imagination.

But there's very value in selectively removing games. The fact is they're going to win a certain number and they're going to lose a certain number of games; you have to count them all.

Erndog says they have to go 22-15-0 (or thereabouts) to make the playoffs. That's really not far off from their current record of 22-18-5.

So arbitrarily removing the first 9 games then saying the leftover record is really not a valuable exercise. How do we know they won't fire off a 5 game winning streak?

How do we know that they won't fire off a 5 game losing streak?  The problem is, that at least in my mind, that I see it being easier for them to lose than win.  Also, if they have to depend on a 5 game winning streak to get them in to the playoffs, that is a fairly tall order.  The reality is they will probably go 3-2 or 2-3 in their next five, which just isn't good enough.

3-2 is on pace for 22-15, which is what people has stated we need. So yes, it would be good enough.

The doom and gloom in this thread is depressing.

3-2 against the Wild, Habs, Islanders x 2 and the Penguins, isn't good enough.  They need to win those games.  Mainly because they are teams below them, and they don't have points to give up.  Also, they no longer control their own fate.  Once you are out of a playoff spot, you now rely on someone else dropping out, which means you need things to fall in to place for you.  I was fine as long as they held on to the 8th spot because they just had to keep pace.  Now they have to keep pace and hope that someone else can't.  And the reality is if they only go 3-2 against the 4 teams listed above, then how are they going to compete against the teams that are ahead of them.  You can call it doom and gloom if you like, but there is a certain urgency to the Leafs current situation.
 
leafs should have won that game against ottawa..9 times out of 10 they would of..if they had of ..it'd be a 2 game winning streak and things would be looking up ...it didn't happen....still it means to me the team is hardly in a tailspin ...also ..i hate to say this..but just stop using reimer for a while...
 
crazyperfectdevil said:
leafs should have won that game against ottawa..9 times out of 10 they would of..if they had of ..it'd be a 2 game winning streak and things would be looking up ...it didn't happen....still it means to me the team is hardly in a tailspin ...also ..i hate to say this..but just stop using reimer for a while...

I think Wilson has finally realized this.  As long as Gustavsson doesn't fall into a tailspin, he'll play the bulk of the remaining games.
 
Significantly Insignificant said:
3-2 against the Wild, Habs, Islanders x 2 and the Penguins, isn't good enough.  They need to win those games.  Mainly because they are teams below them, and they don't have points to give up.  Also, they no longer control their own fate.  Once you are out of a playoff spot, you now rely on someone else dropping out, which means you need things to fall in to place for you.  I was fine as long as they held on to the 8th spot because they just had to keep pace.  Now they have to keep pace and hope that someone else can't.  And the reality is if they only go 3-2 against the 4 teams listed above, then how are they going to compete against the teams that are ahead of them.  You can call it doom and gloom if you like, but there is a certain urgency to the Leafs current situation.

Sure there's urgency, no argument there. But you can have urgency and optimism at the same time.

At this point it makes no difference to me whether they're in 9th or 8th. It's not statistically significant. It would be if every team finished the season at exactly the same point winning rate, but they won't. Teams will drop and fall. The standings you see now won't be the standings you see next week, or next month.
 
Maybe I am too much of a "half glass full" type, but in the midst of all the doom and gloom:

a)  There is a big difference between having an old team on the fringe of the playoff race (see JFJ teams) and one of the youngest in the league playing at the same level.

b)  Some fans and media have given up on Ron Wilson, but the players are still playing hard for him.  What matters more?

c)  Burke and Wilson have, surprisingly quietly, changed their philosophy to keep up with the times.  Instead of having two scoring lines and two full of truculence, testosterone and belligerence, the Leafs are now icing three scoring lines and one for defensive purposes.  Still lots of areas that can be improved, but a vastly more interesting team to watch. And also one that has a better chance of catching up to the elite teams in the league.

d)  Bill James did a lot of research in baseball on run differential, i.e. the difference between the number of runs a teams scores versus the number that they allow.  In brief, a lucky team can have a winning record by winning close games because of lucky bounces, but this will not last over the longer term.  A better evaluation can be made by looking at run differential.  (It takes a really good team to win blowouts on a consistent basis.)  If the same holds true for goal differential in hockey (and I think it does), then the Leafs are more likely to be in the playoffs at the end of the season than some of the other teams from fifth to eighth.
 
If the Leafs win 15 games, they have <15% chance of making the playoffs.
If the Leafs win 19 games, they have a 96% chance of making the playoffs.

Just 4 games making a 81% difference!
(Source: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Toronto.html)
 
Our 11 games going into the break are 9 on the road and 2 at home.  We started by sweeping a 4-game homestand, and were poised to solidify a playoff position.  Since then we've gone 1-4. 

Tonight we lost to a team that itself lost last night, while our guys were relaxing at home, recharging their batteries for a spirited effort on the game's biggest stage against one our two archrivals.

Oh.  Wait.

And the exact same thing was true for the game before last.

Now, if I were an ultracompetitive GM, losing games like that to OTT and MTL would touch off major alarm bells.  On tonight's broadcast we were shown a clip of Tortorella tearing a strip off somebody on the bench.  This, on a team that is in first place in the conference.

Our "hall of fame" coach, by contrast?  How well prepared, well motivated, was the team tonight?  Against OTT?

Bah, enough of that.  We have a home and home against the Isles before the break.  Win those 2, and that leaves us with a 7-4 record over the last 11 games.  Do that, and there may be some hope yet of climbing into an 8th place spot.  But the schedule gets much tougher after the ASG. 
 
Disappointing that we can't beat teams in our own division. These games are so important and the lack of urgency to win is upsetting. I guess....no, not ready for playoffs. maybe next week.
 

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