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Maple Leafs are better, but are they a playoff team?

bustaheims said:
Sarge said:
9 of the next 11 on the road for the Jets... You might be right Busta. On the other hand, id they get out of the next 11 with a dozen or so points, it could be trouble for us.
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With their road record so far this season, that seems highly unlikely.
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It does... but like I said, if they surprise in this stretch... Ouch!
 
Time for the annual "Why do you get 2 points for a win in regulation AND a win in the shootout" adjusted standings

2 points for a regulation win/OT win
1 point for getting to overtime/shootout
1 cookie for winning the shootout

The first number is their ranking with the adjusted standings, the second number is their current playoff seeding. 
Note:  The Leafs are T-7 but rank 8th and are 3 points up on a playoff spot taking away the pretend shootout wins.  New Jersey's points are significantly inflated as they are 5 points out of a playoff spot instead in a 3 way tie for 7th.  Carolina, while not a playoff team, fares much better without the shootout.  Most of the standings don't change very much, but New York really establishes themselves as the premiere team in the East.

1. (1) NY Rangers      29-12-6  -  64 points  2 cookies
2. (2) Boston            26-14-7  -  59 points  5 cookies
3. (3) Washington    25-19-4    -  54 points  1 cookie
4. (4) Philly              28-14-6  -  62 points  1 cookie
5. (5) Ottawa          22-18-11  -  55 points  5 cookies
6. (6) Pittsburgh      22-17-9    - 53 points  5 cookies
7. (8) Florida          19-15-14  - 52 points    3 cookies
8. (9) Toronto          22-19-8    -  52 points  3 cookies
9. (10) Winnipeg      21-22-7    - 49 points    1 cookie
10. (7) New Jersey      18-19-11 -  47 points  8 cookies
11. (15) Carolina        18-24-9      - 45 points    0 cookies
12. (11) Tampa          19-23-6      - 44 points    2 cookies
13. (12) Montreal        17-21-10  - 44 points    1 cookie
14. (13) NY Islanders  16-22-10  -  42 points  3 cookies
15. (14) Buffalo          17-24-8    -  42 points  3 cookies
 
The Leafs are in a nice position assuming they can win one of the Pens games after the All Star break:

The Panthers have 22 wins which is least among the 8 playoff teams, but have a game in hand over the Leafs, and the same number of points as the Leafs.

The Caps and Devils both have 1 game in hand over the Leafs, 1 more win than the Leafs, but the same number of points as the Leafs.

Leafs have 3 games in hand over the turds and are 5 points behind.

After the All Star Game, by Wednesday, the Leafs could be in the top 8:

turds vs Bruins (go Bruins).  A turds loss and the Leafs are only 3 behind with 3 games in hand.
Rangers vs Devils (go Rangers).  A Devils loss puts the Leafs ahead of the Devils.
Pens vs Leafs (home and home series).  Leafs must win at least one of these games if they want to leapfrog into a playoff position.  The catchable teams ahead of them in the standings have tough games. 
Caps vs Bolts.  As long as the Caps lose, it is good for the Leafs.  Go Bolts
Caps vs Panthers.  One of these teams will make the playoffs as the 3rd seed in the East.  The other team needs to tank the rest of the way.

One observation I hope comes to fruition is the fact that the Leafs didn't cave against the Isles.  Down by 2, to come back and take the lead in the 3rd, only to have the Isles tie it on a freak bounce, only to see the Leafs pull out the win in OT.  That is something the Leafs need to build on and can build on to help them get into the playoffs.
 
Optimus Reimer said:
The Leafs are in a nice position assuming they can win one of the Pens games after the All Star break:

The Panthers have 22 wins which is least among the 8 playoff teams, but have a game in hand over the Leafs, and the same number of points as the Leafs.

The Caps and Devils both have 1 game in hand over the Leafs, 1 more win than the Leafs, but the same number of points as the Leafs.

Leafs have 3 games in hand over the turds and are 5 points behind.

After the All Star Game, by Wednesday, the Leafs could be in the top 8:

turds vs Bruins (go Bruins).  A turds loss and the Leafs are only 3 behind with 3 games in hand.
Rangers vs Devils (go Rangers).  A Devils loss puts the Leafs ahead of the Devils.
Pens vs Leafs (home and home series).  Leafs must win at least one of these games if they want to leapfrog into a playoff position.  The catchable teams ahead of them in the standings have tough games. 
Caps vs Bolts.  As long as the Caps lose, it is good for the Leafs.  Go Bolts
Caps vs Panthers.  One of these teams will make the playoffs as the 3rd seed in the East.  The other team needs to tank the rest of the way.

One observation I hope comes to fruition is the fact that the Leafs didn't cave against the Isles.  Down by 2, to come back and take the lead in the 3rd, only to have the Isles tie it on a freak bounce, only to see the Leafs pull out the win in OT.  That is something the Leafs need to build on and can build on to help them get into the playoffs.
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Things will be a lot more clear right after the break.  Immediately after the home/home with the Pens, we play the Sens head to head and incredibly, the Leafs will STILL have 3 games in hand after that game.  SO, if we beat the Sens directly, it'll go a long way into the Leafs being able to catch them in the standings.
 
Zee said:
Optimus Reimer said:
The Leafs are in a nice position assuming they can win one of the Pens games after the All Star break:

The Panthers have 22 wins which is least among the 8 playoff teams, but have a game in hand over the Leafs, and the same number of points as the Leafs.

The Caps and Devils both have 1 game in hand over the Leafs, 1 more win than the Leafs, but the same number of points as the Leafs.

Leafs have 3 games in hand over the turds and are 5 points behind.

After the All Star Game, by Wednesday, the Leafs could be in the top 8:

turds vs Bruins (go Bruins).  A turds loss and the Leafs are only 3 behind with 3 games in hand.
Rangers vs Devils (go Rangers).  A Devils loss puts the Leafs ahead of the Devils.
Pens vs Leafs (home and home series).  Leafs must win at least one of these games if they want to leapfrog into a playoff position.  The catchable teams ahead of them in the standings have tough games. 
Caps vs Bolts.  As long as the Caps lose, it is good for the Leafs.  Go Bolts
Caps vs Panthers.  One of these teams will make the playoffs as the 3rd seed in the East.  The other team needs to tank the rest of the way.

One observation I hope comes to fruition is the fact that the Leafs didn't cave against the Isles.  Down by 2, to come back and take the lead in the 3rd, only to have the Isles tie it on a freak bounce, only to see the Leafs pull out the win in OT.  That is something the Leafs need to build on and can build on to help them get into the playoffs.
Click to expand...

Things will be a lot more clear right after the break.  Immediately after the home/home with the Pens, we play the Sens head to head and incredibly, the Leafs will STILL have 3 games in hand after that game.  SO, if we beat the Sens directly, it'll go a long way into the Leafs being able to catch them in the standings.
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Maybe extend the turds losing streak to 5 games???  Fire MacLean, trade rat boy and spazzoid.  I can see the headlines now.  First though, the Leafs need to beat the turds. 
 
Now that the league is entering the home stretch and the Leafs are deeply embroiled in the think of what could be a pretty intense playoff race, I thought I'd take a look at the things the Leafs have going for and against them in comparison to the 4 teams they're competing with (in this case, Washington, Florida, New Jersey and Ottawa - they may be 5 points up, but, because of how many more games they've played, they haven't separated themselves from the group).

In the Leafs favour:

- The Leafs are the only one of the 5 teams with a positive goal differential
- Only Washington has more ROWs (and they're likely to take the Southeast division title)
- New Jersey is below .500 in games that don't go to a shootout
- Florida has 11 "loser points"
- The Leafs have the best 5 on 5 ratio, goals/game and PP%
- Only Washington has a better winning % when leading after one, but, the Leafs have scored the most 1st period goals and have allowed the least
- Only Florida has been shorthanded on less occasions
- Only the Leafs and Washington have the best winning percentage when leading after 2

Not in the Leaf's favour:

- Washington, Florida and New Jersey each hold a game in hand on the Leafs
- Only Ottawa has a worse goals against/game
- The Leafs obviously have the lowest PK%
- Only Florida has won less games when allowing the 1st goal
- The Leafs have worst winning percentage when trailing after 2
 
I've said it before, but there seems like an awful lot of back-to-backs this season.  Just looking at their upcoming schedule, it seems like there's a 5 week span with a back-to-back each week (I didn't confirm this, just FEELS like it).
 
Potvin29 said:
I've said it before, but there seems like an awful lot of back-to-backs this season.  Just looking at their upcoming schedule, it seems like there's a 5 week span with a back-to-back each week (I didn't confirm this, just FEELS like it).
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You're wrong, it's only a 4 week span! :P
 
mirtle James Mirtle
14-12-4 gets them to 92 points, which should be enough. RT @rfancey3: Leafs playoff odds at 85.4% - sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/No?
1 minute ago
 
Sarge said:
mirtle James Mirtle
14-12-4 gets them to 92 points, which should be enough. RT @rfancey3: Leafs playoff odds at 85.4% - sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/No?
1 minute ago
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I believe they will finish much better then that.
 
I'm on team nutman...

we_can_do_it_0.jpg
 
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