Maple Leafs are better, but are they a playoff team?

[cw]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
After tonight's loss, their playoff chances slipped to 16%

They are 2 points ahead of where they were after 63 games last season. The reason their chances are better this year is more due to the 8th place team having fewer points than last year at this point in time.

75% - 16% amazing..

Yep. It doesn't matter when the 3 pts out of 20 available pts stretch happens. Whether it's the start of the season or at the trade deadline, it's a tough thing for a mediocre team to overcome.

They only have 3 classic options of impact I can think of:
1. do nothing and hope the players turn it around themselves (or try adjusting the lineup with a AHL skater or two)
2. call up the best AHL goalie and hope he can run with it
3. change the coach

Something along those lines.

As 8th place Washington is 5 pts behind 7th place New Jersey and 6 pts behind 6th place Ottawa and New Jersey & Ottawa have games in hand on the Leafs and Caps, mathematically, 8th place is the Leafs only semi realistic chance.

Washington projects to get 90 pts and they have the tie breaker in wins against the Leafs and lead the season series 4 pts to 2 pts. So the Leafs project to need 91 pts - or 26 pts out of the 38 possible points remaining, which is .684 hockey the rest of the way - to have a chance.

It's still possible but whatever it is they're going to do, they have to do it really, really soon if they don't want to book tee times for April.

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
After tonight's loss, their playoff chances slipped to 16%

They are 2 points ahead of where they were after 63 games last season. The reason their chances are better this year is more due to the 8th place team having fewer points than last year at this point in time.

75% - 16% amazing..

Yep. It doesn't matter when the 3 pts out of 20 available pts stretch happens. Whether it's the start of the season or at the trade deadline, it's a tough thing for a mediocre team to overcome.

They only have 3 classic options of impact I can think of:
1. do nothing and hope the players turn it around themselves (or try adjusting the lineup with a AHL skater or two)
2. call up the best AHL goalie and hope he can run with it
3. change the coach

Something along those lines.

As 8th place Washington is 5 pts behind 7th place New Jersey and 6 pts behind 6th place Ottawa and New Jersey & Ottawa have games in hand on the Leafs and Caps, mathematically, 8th place is the Leafs only semi realistic chance.

Washington projects to get 90 pts and they have the tie breaker in wins against the Leafs and lead the season series 4 pts to 2 pts. So the Leafs project to need 91 pts - or 26 pts out of the 38 possible points remaining, which is .684 hockey the rest of the way - to have a chance.

It's still possible but whatever it is they're going to do, they have to do it really, really soon if they don't want to book tee times for April.

Can't say I've really liked their chances of doing much in the playoffs if they do come in 8th so things seem pretty dire at the moment.  3. seems really unlikely to happen before the end of the year..2. would at least make things interesting though with the way the team has played lately ..i don't think it's just about goaltending...

speaking of...it's hard to isolate one reason as to why the goaltending has been so mediocre ...but my thought lately is that it's the very thing that burke said was going to fix the leafs.  That is, competition for play time.  The monster has seemed his best this year when he hasn't been afraid of losing his job.  That's just a general feeling I have..I don't have the stats.  But the times when he's had a prolonged period to work without someone looking over his shoulder ..he's seemed the most stable.  I wonder if in that position at least..they've misread the psyches of these guys..or at least jonas.

 

[Optimus Reimer]

Instead of sucking at the start of the season, they started the suckiness at the end of the season, while they still were in the playoffs.  No need to worry though.  Leafs will drop into the lottery pick area, but go on a 5 game winning streak to finish the season out of the playoffs and without a top 5 pick.  Leafs just don't know how to win or lose properly.

 

[maplesyrup]

If we don't get 2 points vs. Washington on Saturday, I'm leaving team nutman.

* bump *

Yeah, I'm officially out... Go Marlies!

 

[proteus2000]

If the Leafs finished 7th or 8th, they would've been run out of the rink by the Rags or Bruins. It wouldn't have helped any. I hope, like in other years before they're unnecessary tear, that they keep crashing to end the Wilson-era and garner a high end pick.

I think Lupul is hurting worse than he's let on, I wouldn't mind seeing that guy shut down for the last 10 games if he has nagging injuries. Same as any other injury prone guys.

 

[Mikhail Bloodnovsky]

If the Leafs finished 7th or 8th, they would've been run out of the rink by the Rags or Bruins. It wouldn't have helped any. I hope, like in other years before they're unnecessary tear, that they keep crashing to end the Wilson-era and garner a high end pick.

I think Lupul is hurting worse than he's let on, I wouldn't mind seeing that guy shut down for the last 10 games if he has nagging injuries. Same as any other injury prone guys.

I disagree.

First of all it would give this bunch of young players a taste of the play offs and some much needed play off seasoning for future years.

Second of all, the talk of not making the play offs since the lock out would finally cease. If Florida makes the play offs that would leave only the Leafs as the only post lock out team to miss out on the post season (can you say laughing stock).

Third of all, it would at least indicate that the team is moving in the right direction and not regressing.

Edit: Just to add only the Leafs management can be so arrogant as to consider 'just making the play offs' a failure while at the same time not being in the post season in 7 years. Apparently we are so good that only making and winning the cup in the same year is acceptable. Sickening.

 

[Deebo]

I don't know these guys did it, but they have managed to make this year the most disapointing season in stretch of 6 extremely disappointing seasons.

 

[Erndog]

I don't know these guys did it, but they have managed to make this year the most disapointing season in stretch of 6 extremely disappointing seasons.

What absolutely KILLS me, is I don't know how this team is going to imrpove.

I posted this yesterday but it bears repeating:

I just don't know how this Leaf team is going to improve itself.

-  There are exactly 2 impact UFA's this summer.  Parise and Suter.  We aren't getting either one.  Their are a handful of decent-to-good 3rd line types like David Jones, Paul Gaustad, Jordin Tootoo, etc.  These guys, while might be decent addtiions, won't change the fortunes of this Leaf club.  Not at all.  (I'd wager their additions turn out like Colby Armstrong anyways... almost meaningless, just eating cap space).

-  We have few, if any, prospects who might make any sort of impactful contribution next year.  Realistically, Kadri, Frattin, etc, are AT BEST 40 point forwards next year.  Whoopdyyy, doo?

-  No team is in cap hell that MUST jettison some players like we've seen in recent years (i.e. like we did with Chicagio and Versteeg)


I just don't see how this team can make any sort of significant improvement.  For instance, it's VERY likely that, ONCE AGAIN, we go into the season with Bozak as the defacto #1 center.

I guess we can hope they sign someone like Josh Harding to compete with Reimer for the #1 job and we get lucky and Josh takes the ball and runs with it.

 

[cw]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
and they fall to 11% chance of making the playoffs - their chances are falling like a rock.

 

[ZBBM]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
and they fall to 11% chance of making the playoffs - their chances are falling like a rock.

So, referring to the thread title, are they really any better than any previous Wilson teams?  If yes, by a hair's breadth.

 

[cw]

I don't know these guys did it, but they have managed to make this year the most disapointing season in stretch of 6 extremely disappointing seasons.

What absolutely KILLS me, is I don't know how this team is going to imrpove.

I posted this yesterday but it bears repeating:

I just don't know how this Leaf team is going to improve itself.

-  There are exactly 2 impact UFA's this summer.  Parise and Suter.  We aren't getting either one.  Their are a handful of decent-to-good 3rd line types like David Jones, Paul Gaustad, Jordin Tootoo, etc.  These guys, while might be decent addtiions, won't change the fortunes of this Leaf club.  Not at all.  (I'd wager their additions turn out like Colby Armstrong anyways... almost meaningless, just eating cap space).

-  We have few, if any, prospects who might make any sort of impactful contribution next year.  Realistically, Kadri, Frattin, etc, are AT BEST 40 point forwards next year.  Whoopdyyy, doo?

-  No team is in cap hell that MUST jettison some players like we've seen in recent years (i.e. like we did with Chicagio and Versteeg)


I just don't see how this team can make any sort of significant improvement.  For instance, it's VERY likely that, ONCE AGAIN, we go into the season with Bozak as the defacto #1 center.

I guess we can hope they sign someone like Josh Harding to compete with Reimer for the #1 job and we get lucky and Josh takes the ball and runs with it.

With the upcoming CBA, 2013 still looks like a promising UFA market:
Goalies:
http://www.capgeek.com/free_agents.php?year_id=2013&team_id=-1&position_id=G&fa_type_id=2
Dmen:
http://www.capgeek.com/free_agents.php?year_id=2013&team_id=-1&position_id=D&fa_type_id=2
Forwards:
http://www.capgeek.com/free_agents.php?year_id=2013&team_id=-1&position_id=F&fa_type_id=2

Some of those guys will naturally get signed between now and then, but for some time, it's looked like a more promising crop.

Recognizing that, I was hoping for a bit of a sell off at this deadline and flipping those proceeds into a good top pick (move up in a pretty good draft at the top this June).

My hope would be that by summer of 2013, they'd have an elite center (ie UFA Getzlaf), elite dman (maybe Whitney or Suter or Weber for example) and we'd cross our fingers that they'd land/develop a decent starting goalie. Maybe they'd get one elite guy in their drafts. If they got those three things, they'd be a contender because they have a bunch of the other pieces in place on their young NHL roster or in their system.

 

[cw]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
and they fall to 11% chance of making the playoffs - their chances are falling like a rock.

So, referring to the thread title, are they really any better than any previous Wilson teams?  If yes, by a hair's breadth.

Regardless of where they finish this season, in terms of talent, I'd say yes because Lupul and Kessel are pretty darn good and they have a bunch of youngsters who will get better.

As a NHL club, arguably, they are not playing substantially better right now.

 

[cw]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20112012&type=LEA
It's still kind of shocking to see Tampa & Buffalo now only one point behind with a game in hand and Carolina & the Islanders 4 pts back with a game in hand.

OTH, continuation of the free fall could result in quite a good draft pick.

 

[Erndog]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20112012&type=LEA
It's still kind of shocking to see Tampa & Buffalo now only one point behind with a game in hand and Carolina & the Islanders 4 pts back with a game in hand.

OTH, continuation of the free fall could result in quite a good draft pick.

Sadly, I've resigned myself to missing the playoffs and hoping for as good a pick as possible.

This might be stupid, but the draft is top heavy with Russians and D-men.  Would Burke draft a Russian?  And D is probably a bit more of a secondary need than a top end forward (preferably center).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This might be stupid, but the draft is top heavy with Russians and D-men.  Would Burke draft a Russian?  And D is probably a bit more of a secondary need than a top end forward (preferably center).

The Russians are all already playing in North America, so at least there won't be any issues in getting them over here.

 

[Madferret]

A decent 1st rounder could be the difference if Burke makes a move for Schneider / Lindback / Bernier. 

 

[Corn Flake]

A decent 1st rounder could be the difference if Burke makes a move for Schneider / Lindback / Bernier.

But we have been down that road before.. twice post lockout where a prized 1st is dealt for a young(ish) goalie and he's a bust.  I honestly don't know if they could bring in any young goalie here and expect him to flourish without some serious help.

This team has several young goalies.  It makes far more sense to let them develop and invest in a proven veteran by trade or signing to protect/provide insurance.

You know... dare I say... like how things worked out with Anderson in Ottawa.  Only I hope the Leafs keep Reimer to work under the vet and get better as opposed to you guys unloading Elliot.

 

[Tigger]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20112012&type=LEA
It's still kind of shocking to see Tampa & Buffalo now only one point behind with a game in hand and Carolina & the Islanders 4 pts back with a game in hand.

OTH, continuation of the free fall could result in quite a good draft pick.

Sadly, I've resigned myself to missing the playoffs and hoping for as good a pick as possible.

This might be stupid, but the draft is top heavy with Russians and D-men.  Would Burke draft a Russian?  And D is probably a bit more of a secondary need than a top end forward (preferably center).

As Rick Dudley said the other day when being interviewed about Carter Ashton, where they come from isn't something they talk about.

Brian hasn't drafted a Russian born player since the lock out from what I can tell but prior to that he drafted Nikolishin, Korotkov and Gorenko in Hartford while taking Chubarov, Duma, F Fedorov, Gladskikh, Mikhailov, Koltsov, Krikunov and Topol over the years in Vancouver.

 

[Redleaf]

A decent 1st rounder could be the difference if Burke makes a move for Schneider / Lindback / Bernier.

But we have been down that road before.. twice post lockout where a prized 1st is dealt for a young(ish) goalie and he's a bust.  I honestly don't know if they could bring in any young goalie here and expect him to flourish without some serious help.

This team has several young goalies.  It makes far more sense to let them develop and invest in a proven veteran by trade or signing to protect/provide insurance.

You know... dare I say... like how things worked out with Anderson in Ottawa.  Only I hope the Leafs keep Reimer to work under the vet and get better as opposed to you guys unloading Elliot.

Agreed. This market seems to chew up and spit out promising young goalies. Was Felix Potvin the last one who played consistently well in Toronto? Clearly a veteran goaltender is in order for at least the next 2 years as we bring along guys like Reimer, Owuya, and Scrivens.

The defence also needs a real tried and tested stud IMO. Suter would be ideal.

And of course that ever elusive big strong centre would bring some push back up front.

So I'm on board with cw, in that we really need all three pieces to contend. But looking at where we were only a few years ago, I think Burke has filled out the roster with some good pieces that could be ready to go when the team takes the next big jump forward.

 

[Corn Flake]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20112012&type=LEA
It's still kind of shocking to see Tampa & Buffalo now only one point behind with a game in hand and Carolina & the Islanders 4 pts back with a game in hand.

OTH, continuation of the free fall could result in quite a good draft pick.

Sadly, I've resigned myself to missing the playoffs and hoping for as good a pick as possible.

This might be stupid, but the draft is top heavy with Russians and D-men.  Would Burke draft a Russian?  And D is probably a bit more of a secondary need than a top end forward (preferably center).

As Rick Dudley said the other day when being interviewed about Carter Ashton, where they come from isn't something they talk about.

Brian hasn't drafted a Russian born player since the lock out from what I can tell but prior to that he drafted Nikolishin, Korotkov and Gorenko in Hartford while taking Chubarov, Duma, F Fedorov, Gladskikh, Mikhailov, Koltsov, Krikunov and Topol over the years in Vancouver.

And across the league, the number of Russians drafted and even playing in the NHL has dropped significantly.  I can't find the number but its very very low right now. 

This draft will probably be the first in a while to buck the recent trend.