Marner signs 6 year, $10.893mil AAV contract

[Zee]

Leafs are spending over $94M with a full roster.

That 94 million includes the cap hits of the guys on LTIR.

Yeah that counts a 23-man roster plus Dermott, Hyman, Horton, and Clarkson (and Kessel's retention). The Leafs can't start the season at that number unless they also place Dermott and Hyman on LTIR. Once those guys are back they'll need to drop that number to roughly $92mil ($81.5mil + Horton/Clarkson's cap hits).

For the record, capfriendly shows Hyman and Dermott also on LTIR right now.

So, the Leafs 23 man roster is under 81.5M right now, what was the point of acquiring Clarkson's cap hit?  I'm missing something here.  Wouldn't they still be cap compliant without it?

 

[herman]

I don't think it'll be as bad as many are making it out to be.

Rielly is under contract at a downright steal; we also have Dermott RFA, Sandin ELC, Liljegren ELC at the very least.

The Leafs, under Babcock and Dubas, play a very Forward focused game. All the defense needs to be able to do is skate, pick up pucks quickly, and move it to the forwards. That's it. They don't need to be able to skate through every layer of defense, they are discouraged from shooting from the point unless they can walk to the top of the circles. We're not looking for super expensive do-everything guys here, unless they're cheaply available and want to be here.

The league as a whole is nearly incapable of correctly placing a dollar value on good defense (points, baby). Like Coco said, we really only need to buy one pricier option (a la Barrie or Muzzin) and then just cycle through the cheapo pile until something sticks.

 

[herman]

Leafs are spending over $94M with a full roster.

That 94 million includes the cap hits of the guys on LTIR.

Yeah that counts a 23-man roster plus Dermott, Hyman, Horton, and Clarkson (and Kessel's retention). The Leafs can't start the season at that number unless they also place Dermott and Hyman on LTIR. Once those guys are back they'll need to drop that number to roughly $92mil ($81.5mil + Horton/Clarkson's cap hits).

For the record, capfriendly shows Hyman and Dermott also on LTIR right now.

So, the Leafs 23 man roster is under 81.5M right now, what was the point of acquiring Clarkson's cap hit?  I'm missing something here.  Wouldn't they still be cap compliant without it?

The Leafs knew they needed to use LTIR anyway, once Marner was signed, so they picked up Clarkson to ensure they pushed to 81.5 BEFORE Marner's number is accounted, giving them 10.55M of overhead to fit Marner in after the season starts. Without Clarkson, the Leafs would be about 4M short of 81.5M and to sign Marner after the season starts they'd either have to blow open 4+M and then sign Marner + LTIR and recoup those positions, or sign Marner to a 4M bridge (lol). These numbers are ballpark.

This is a good explainer
https://theleafsnation.com/2019/07/25/why-the-leafs-really-traded-for-david-clarkson/

 

[Kin]

That all said though, with the money tied up in the big 4 forwards, having 12 million tied up in Hyman, Johnsson, Kapanen and Kerfoot probably isn't the smartest thing regardless.

 

[Zee]

That all said though, with the money tied up in the big 4 forwards, having 12 million tied up in Hyman, Johnsson, Kapanen and Kerfoot probably isn't the smartest thing regardless.

Those 4 guys accounted for 76 goals between them last season, how are you going to replace that for cheaper?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I got it now, so the actual total of active player salaries is $81.5M, I mistakenly thought they were over that.  So it's going to be tough to fill out the defence next season without trading some guys.

Since we're on the topic, let's see what we have to work with there. The good news is obviously the forwards are pretty much signed and locked in:

Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander, Kerfoot, Johnsson, Kapanen, Hyman, and Moore give us 9 players. Petan and Agostino are also signed for next season, but there's no guarantee they'll be there especially if they end up on waivers soon. But for the purposes of this let's just assume we still have them. That gives us $55.15mil for 11 forwards. Add in 2 other players at $700k and we're at about $56.55mil for 13 forwards next season.

Next up let's just look at goalies. Obviously Andersen is locked in at $5mil. Let's throw in a back-up at $800k, which is about what both Scott and Woll are at. Or we grab a random veteran as a free agent again. So $5.8mil for goalies.

Defence is obviously the issue here since it looks like Rielly is all by himself. I think it's safe to assume that Sandin and Liljegren will be joining him, and their low cap hits are obviously pretty helpful here. Dermott's next contract is obviously pretty up in the air right now. Let's just assume though that he signs in the Kappy/Johnsson/Kerfoot range and gets $3.3mil. That's 4 defencemen. Let's throw in a random #7 guy at $700k as well, giving us 5 defencemen for about $10.75mil.

So that gives us something that looks like this:

Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Petan-Kerfoot-Kapanen
Moore-$700k-Agnostino
$700k

Rielly-Dermott
____-____
Sandin-Liljegren
$700k

Andersen
$800k

(Kessel @ $1.2mil)

That roster gives us a cap hit of $74.3mil. So let's just assume that the cap doesn't increase at all (which has been rumoured). That would mean we have $7.2mil to spend on two more defencemen to fill out our line-up. You could squeeze in a little more by dropping down to a 21-man roster, but I'm going to guess the Leafs won't want to go through that for possibly 2 seasons in a row.

Obviously, trades would be an option to open up some room as well.

 

[Kin]

That all said though, with the money tied up in the big 4 forwards, having 12 million tied up in Hyman, Johnsson, Kapanen and Kerfoot probably isn't the smartest thing regardless.

Those 4 guys accounted for 76 goals between them last season, how are you going to replace that for cheaper?

Well, in large part you'd like to think that a fair chunk of that would be "replaced" by Nylander producing at the level we think he's capable of and further growth from our other stars. Then you add the sort of young players a heavily invested in development system should be producing and there you go.

But more to the point, the aim wouldn't be in "replacing" those guys so much as it is in shifting those resources from goal scoring to things like defense and goaltending.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That roster gives us a cap hit of $74.3mil. So let's just assume that the cap doesn't increase at all (which has been rumoured). That would mean we have $7.2mil to spend on two more defencemen to fill out our line-up. You could squeeze in a little more by dropping down to a 21-man roster, but I'm going to guess the Leafs won't want to go through that for possibly 2 seasons in a row.

From Friedman's 30 Thoughts today:

3. We?ll see if the NHL and NHLPA agree to a different number as part of negotiations, but at last week?s Board of Governors meeting, the 2020-21 cap was estimated at $84.5 million, if the players do not use any escalator at all.

That'd be quite the change from $81.5mil, but like he says the two sides might agree to a lower number because of all the escrow troubles the players are having. If it's $84.5mil though that would give us about $10mil to spend on 2 defencemen (or improving the back-up) which is pretty good. Can't fit both Muzzin and Barrie but I don't think that was ever expected to happen anyway. Especially since it would open up one of them or Dermott to be claimed in the expansion draft.

 

[Coco-puffs]

That roster gives us a cap hit of $74.3mil. So let's just assume that the cap doesn't increase at all (which has been rumoured). That would mean we have $7.2mil to spend on two more defencemen to fill out our line-up. You could squeeze in a little more by dropping down to a 21-man roster, but I'm going to guess the Leafs won't want to go through that for possibly 2 seasons in a row.

From Friedman's 30 Thoughts today:

3. We?ll see if the NHL and NHLPA agree to a different number as part of negotiations, but at last week?s Board of Governors meeting, the 2020-21 cap was estimated at $84.5 million, if the players do not use any escalator at all.

That'd be quite the change from $81.5mil, but like he says the two sides might agree to a lower number because of all the escrow troubles the players are having. If it's $84.5mil though that would give us about $10mil to spend on 2 defencemen (or improving the back-up) which is pretty good. Can't fit both Muzzin and Barrie but I don't think that was ever expected to happen anyway. Especially since it would open up one of them or Dermott to be claimed in the expansion draft.

I would think Dubas would probably be fine with losing Muzzin in the expansion draft if he managed to keep both Barrie and Muzz next season (on like the 0.1% chance it happens).  Gets to have Muzz in the lineup for one more season and then another team absorbs his long term deal as he begins to decline.

I certainly wouldn't expose Dermott to keep a guy in his 30's.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I would think Dubas would probably be fine with losing Muzzin in the expansion draft if he managed to keep both Barrie and Muzz next season (on like the 0.1% chance it happens).  Gets to have Muzz in the lineup for one more season and then another team absorbs his long term deal as he begins to decline.

Yeah, that's fair. It certainly wouldn't be the end of the world. But you would still need to clear cap space to fit both Barrie and Muzzin in for next season. So would Dubas be fine trading say Kapanen for futures to do that knowing Muzzin would only be around for another season? I think that's where it gets iffy.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I would think Dubas would probably be fine with losing Muzzin in the expansion draft if he managed to keep both Barrie and Muzz next season (on like the 0.1% chance it happens).  Gets to have Muzz in the lineup for one more season and then another team absorbs his long term deal as he begins to decline.

Yeah, that's fair. It certainly wouldn't be the end of the world. But you would still need to clear cap space to fit both Barrie and Muzzin in for next season. So would Dubas be fine trading say Kapanen for futures to do that knowing Muzzin would only be around for another season? I think that's where it gets iffy.

Completely agree, I'm not trading a forward to make them both fit.  That's why I handicapped the chance of getting BOTH at 0.1%.  Basically, they have 16M to spend on 6 D-men (assuming cap rises 2M, a little conservative compared to current estimate). They'd both be taking under-market deals for this to work:

Muzzin 4.5M
Barrie 6.5M
Dermott 2.4M (x2)
Sandin 900k
Liljegren 900k
Cheap Depth (750k)

 

[groundskeeper willie]

I would think Dubas would probably be fine with losing Muzzin in the expansion draft if he managed to keep both Barrie and Muzz next season (on like the 0.1% chance it happens).  Gets to have Muzz in the lineup for one more season and then another team absorbs his long term deal as he begins to decline.

Yeah, that's fair. It certainly wouldn't be the end of the world. But you would still need to clear cap space to fit both Barrie and Muzzin in for next season. So would Dubas be fine trading say Kapanen for futures to do that knowing Muzzin would only be around for another season? I think that's where it gets iffy.

There's no way either Muzzin or Barrie sign a new contract without a NTC so signing both could easily force exposing Dermott

 

[CarltonTheBear]

There's no way either Muzzin or Barrie sign a new contract without a NTC so signing both could easily force exposing Dermott

A player with a NTC can be left exposed, it's only players with NMC's that are required to be protected by their team. And the Leafs likely won't give out a NMC to either of those players.

 

[groundskeeper willie]

There's no way either Muzzin or Barrie sign a new contract without a NTC so signing both could easily force exposing Dermott

A player with a NTC can be left exposed, it's only players with NMC's that are required to be protected by their team. And the Leafs likely won't give out a NMC to either of those players.

Good to know the distinction, but you don't think either one would want it knowing full well the Leafs would have 4 defencemen they would need to protect? I can't imagine either would be thrilled with the idea of being on an expansion team one year after signing

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Good to know the distinction, but you don't think either one would want it knowing full well the Leafs would have 4 defencemen they would need to protect? I can't imagine either would be thrilled with the idea of being on an expansion team one year after signing

Yeah, that's a very fair point. There's a number of reasons really it's unrealistic to see both come back.

 

[Kin]

I'm sort of wrapping things up in terms of how much I want to talk about Marner's contract right now but something that I think should be said with regards to Marner and the comparisons a lot of people are making with him right now is that when I was trying to figure out a way to objectively measure Marner's production vs. his contract the thing that kept sticking out is that there just aren't a lot of comparables. Right?

Here are some facts about Marner's season last year:

- It was the sixth highest scoring season by a 21 year old in the cap era, behind only Crosby, McDavid, Staal, Stamkos and Malkin.

- Which makes it the highest scoring season by a 21 year old winger in the cap era, ahead of Ovechkin, Kane, Gaudreau, Kucherov, etc

- If we stretch it back to the last 25 seasons, it is the second highest point total by a 21 year old winger in that quarter of a century, behind only Paul Kariya

- It was the 7th highest scoring season by a 21 year old winger in the history of the NHL, ahead of chumps like Mike Bossy, Michel Goulet and Brendan Shanahan.

- It was the 27th highest scoring season by any 21 year old in the history of the NHL, higher than Mark Messier, Ron Francis or Steve Yzerman.


That would be remarkable even if all of the secondary things like TOI and Leage Scoring Rate and Linemates gave him a huge leg up but, honestly, they probably didn't. And some of you are being extra salty about the chance that he may have been paid slightly outside of the existing salary structure of the league(which, again, he wasn't).

If Maple Leafs fans can't have nice things it's because when we have nice things some fans look for any excuse they can find to take dumps on them.

 

[herman]

I think it?s a good contract for a 94 pt 21 year old. I don?t know that he hits 90s on the regular going forward, but it?s not out of the question and Marner certainly provides ridiculous value on and off the ice. No one will be complaining anymore about the deal in two years.

 

[Bullfrog]

No one will be complaining anymore about the deal in two years.

I will complain like hell if he settles in as a 70 point player.

 

[Kin]

I think it?s a good contract for a 94 pt 21 year old. I don?t know that he hits 90s on the regular going forward, but it?s not out of the question and Marner certainly provides ridiculous value on and off the ice. No one will be complaining anymore about the deal in two years.

I think it's fair to say that you know me well enough to know that I wouldn't advocate for giving Dubas credit for something unless I thought it was genuine and well earned and right now, this is how he did on the big three deals he had to negotiate:

Nylander - Very clearly not overpaid

Matthews - Not overpaid or even really alleged to have been. At worst people wish he'd been signed at this rate for more years

Marner - Obviously a point of contention right now but I think I've done enough to show that if he fell outside of the norms, it's very slightly.

So three big deals, all of them reasonable.

And, keep in mind, for months I was arguing that the Leafs would have to go outside the norms to keep these guys because of the economic realities of the market and what players are worth here in real dollars. So if the Leafs had significantly paid these guys outside of the league's structure, I'd be proven right. The fact that I'm here saying I really don't think the Leafs ended up doing that, to me, is a really legit endorsement of the work Dubas did here.

 

[Bullfrog]

Ultimately, I don't even care if any or all of the big four are overpaid. What I'm most critical of are GMs overpaying players on a hope and a prayer. We KNOW these guys are going to perform well. Paying $4.5M to someone like Zaitsev is bad (though I'm actually less critical of that deal that most are.) Giving Faulk $6.5M; that's worthy of criticism.