Mitch Marner: what now?

[Bullfrog]

I don't know then. It seems crazy that the Leafs could offersheet say Tkachuk at 5 years for 9.5 and the Flames would have to wait until 2021 to even draft.

Depending on your view of RFA "rights" it can be viewed as crazy that they get any compensation at all for a free agent.

 

[Kin]

Rantanen is going to the be the one contract that for me is going to drive me nuts if he comes in under Marner.

I'd be the first to admit that I haven't seen a ton of Avalanche games but I'm at least a little suspicious of Rantanen and what he could do without a post-breakout Mackinnon on his line. Obviously Marner's never been in a terrible situation himself but he did score 70 points or so with Bozak-JVR. Marner outscored Rantanen last year on a significantly less good offensive line with significantly less PP time.

 

[cabber24]

Why is TB tax situation incentive for players to sign for less but Toronto's endorsement opportunities isn't taken into consideration? Didn't Canadian Tire present at the Stamkos meeting with Toronto. Can the team offer 8-years at $8M + 8-years at $5M Canadian Tire endorsement contract? Marner is so likable the number of endorsements he could make by playing for the Leafs has to be higher than he could get elsewhere.

EDIT: Found this article. I am surprised how low the endorsement amounts are.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/12/05/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2018-19-connor-mcdavid-on-top-at-19-million/#426e8da95871

 

[Zee]

Welcome to Mitch Marner signing day!

I've decided to be optimistic today.

 

[bustaheims]

Found this article. I am surprised how low the endorsement amounts are.

The size of the Canadian market isn't big enough to warrant the kinds of endorsement amounts people want to believe are available - especially when you're talking about guys who don't have universal recognition. Even with as popular as hockey is in Canada, there's still a large portion of the population that aren't fans or don't follow the NHL enough for an endorsement from a player to have an impact on their shopping patterns.

 

[Bates]

Found this article. I am surprised how low the endorsement amounts are.

The size of the Canadian market isn't big enough to warrant the kinds of endorsement amounts people want to believe are available - especially when you're talking about guys who don't have universal recognition. Even with as popular as hockey is in Canada, there's still a large portion of the population that aren't fans or don't follow the NHL enough for an endorsement from a player to have an impact on their shopping patterns.

You don't think Marner and Matthews could make enough to offset tax savings of Florida? I say absolutely they do.

 

[Kin]

Found this article. I am surprised how low the endorsement amounts are.

The size of the Canadian market isn't big enough to warrant the kinds of endorsement amounts people want to believe are available - especially when you're talking about guys who don't have universal recognition. Even with as popular as hockey is in Canada, there's still a large portion of the population that aren't fans or don't follow the NHL enough for an endorsement from a player to have an impact on their shopping patterns.

And as I've said before, players on Canadian teams are in a tricky situation where fanbases are very passionate but also very regional. Does a Leafs player's endorsement carry weight in Vancouver or Montreal? National team players like Crosby and Toews seem to do as well as anyone in the Canadian market with endorsements so the idea that playing in Canada or Toronto greatly increases the amount of money you can make via advertisements is at best unfounded.

And that's even before we get to the conversation about the idea that, somehow, the Leafs should benefit from a player's personal marketability.

 

[Redleaf]

Welcome to Mitch Marner signing day!

I've decided to be optimistic today.

Let?s hope it?s soon. I purchased a $350 Mitch Marner framed photo and it?s still sitting in the box it shipped in in my basement . Not taking it out and hanging it up until he signs.

 

[bustaheims]

You don't think Marner and Matthews could make enough to offset tax savings of Florida? I say absolutely they do.

The actual available numbers for player endorsement income says no, absolutely not. Only the Crosbys and McDavids of the world do.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

You don't think Marner and Matthews could make enough to offset tax savings of Florida? I say absolutely they do.

The actual available numbers for player endorsement income says no, absolutely not.

I guess you could say this about a lot of things, but honestly talking about endorsement money or tax savings is such a waste of time. We really don't have concrete figures about how much players make on endorsements or how much they actually pay in taxes.

 

[Kin]

I guess you could say this about a lot of things, but honestly talking about endorsement money or tax savings is such a waste of time. We really don't have concrete figures about how much players make on endorsements or how much they actually pay in taxes.

I think that's correct if we were talking about specifics but I think it's pretty reasonable to say that, generally speaking, the difference in endorsement money for a player in Toronto vs. a similar player in another market isn't worth millions upon millions of dollars. And, likewise, why an agent wouldn't be moved by the argument anyway.

 

[Bates]

You don't think Marner and Matthews could make enough to offset tax savings of Florida? I say absolutely they do.

The actual available numbers for player endorsement income says no, absolutely not. Only the Crosbys and McDavids of the world do.

Where would I find such numbers? I highly doubt based on the  number of commercials Matthews is in that he isn't generating at least a million a year, that would compensate for the lost tax dollars.

 

[bustaheims]

Where would I find such numbers? I highly doubt based on the  number of commercials Matthews is in that he isn't generating at least a million a year, that would compensate for the lost tax dollars.

cabber24 posted a link to an article that contains some information on endorsements. Only 3 players on the list earn more than $1M in endorsements. Also, I believe it would take significantly more than ~$1M to cover the tax differences. Otherwise, I can't imagine Stamkos would have signed for $8.5M per year knowing he could get $10M+ in the UFA market + close to the same endorsement numbers that Matthews gets.

Also, keep in mind, the only real national commercial Matthews. The rest are almost all local/regional, and they come with a much lower budget for everything, including endorsement dollars.

 

[Bates]

Where would I find such numbers? I highly doubt based on the  number of commercials Matthews is in that he isn't generating at least a million a year, that would compensate for the lost tax dollars.

cabber24 posted a link to an article that contains some information on endorsements. Only 3 players on the list earn more than $1M in endorsements. Also, I believe it would take significantly more than ~$1M to cover the tax differences. Otherwise, I can't imagine Stamkos would have signed for $8.5M per year knowing he could get $10M+ in the UFA market + close to the same endorsement numbers that Matthews gets.

Also, keep in mind, the only real national commercial Matthews. The rest are almost all local/regional, and they come with a much lower budget for everything, including endorsement dollars.

In simple terms it's $1.65 difference on a contract between Florida and Ontario. In reality there is much more to it with regards to tax treaty and how your contract us structured. A million would be fairly close.

 

[Bullfrog]

This is also ignoring the assumption that any regional endorsement opportunities that exist around Toronto wouldn't also exist around Tampa Bay. i.e. why wouldn't a player choose to benefit from tax savings AND endorsements?

 

[Kin]

It's also not just about what Matthews or Marner make in endorsements. It's what they make in endorsements vs. what they'd make in endorsements in another market.

And, of course, endorsement income gets taxed too.

 

[Bates]

I'm gonna try not to laugh at the suggestion there is any number worth wondering about in regards to Florida advertising vs Canada. Matthews in AZ would be a different story.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'm gonna try not to laugh at the suggestion there is any number worth wondering about in regards to Florida advertising vs Canada. Matthews in AZ would be a different story.

The article that you linked to states that Stamkos makes about $1.5M annually (in 2017). That's significant.

 

[Bates]

I'm gonna try not to laugh at the suggestion there is any number worth wondering about in regards to Florida advertising vs Canada. Matthews in AZ would be a different story.

The article that you linked to states that Stamkos makes about $1.5M annually (in 2017). That's significant.

I didn't link anything??

 

[Kin]

I'm gonna try not to laugh at the suggestion there is any number worth wondering about in regards to Florida advertising vs Canada. Matthews in AZ would be a different story.

The article that you linked to states that Stamkos makes about $1.5M annually (in 2017). That's significant.

I think one thing those lists tell us again and again is that where a player plays is less relevant than that player's status within the hockey world. Connor McDavid is going to make a ton more in endorsements as the best player in the world no matter what market he's in than the Leafs or Rangers' best players if they're not a big deal.

I think Stamkos in particular sort of typifies that. Regardless of where Stamkos is playing hockey, he's going to be able to tie into some of the endorsement dollars in Toronto because people in Toronto, at least hockey people, know who he is. Being from here and being regarded as one of the best players in the league probably means more than being a Maple Leaf.