Mitch Marner: what now?

[Fanatic]

Listening to rumors abounding on TSN 1050 this morning that there is "chatter" in NHL circles that an offer sheet could be coming to Marner and that Montreal may be the one doing it.

I am at the point in this where I would rather the Leafs let him go, take the draft picks and the cap space rather than leave themselves with an overpriced contract. If they sign Marner at the max of what any reasonable person thinks he may be worth, it leaves the Leafs with 4 very highly paid forwards and a certainty that they will need to be creative and turn the extra pieces in and out every year or two. I would rather that they have the cap space to resign guys like Muzzin and Barrie.

But hey, whatever I think doesn't matter one bit in any of this, so it's just my two cents.

 

[Zee]

Listening to rumors abounding on TSN 1050 this morning that there is "chatter" in NHL circles that an offer sheet could be coming to Marner and that Montreal may be the one doing it.

I am at the point in this where I would rather the Leafs let him go, take the draft picks and the cap space rather than leave themselves with an overpriced contract. If they sign Marner at the max of what any reasonable person thinks he may be worth, it leaves the Leafs with 4 very highly paid forwards and a certainty that they will need to be creative and turn the extra pieces in and out every year or two. I would rather that they have the cap space to resign guys like Muzzin and Barrie.

But hey, whatever I think doesn't matter one bit in any of this, so it's just my two cents.

That's based on one tweet from an "insider" on twitter who has been hit and miss over the years on his information.  Also, I highly doubt Marner signs an offer sheet.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Listening to rumors abounding on TSN 1050 this morning that there is "chatter" in NHL circles that an offer sheet could be coming to Marner and that Montreal may be the one doing it.

I am at the point in this where I would rather the Leafs let him go, take the draft picks and the cap space rather than leave themselves with an overpriced contract. If they sign Marner at the max of what any reasonable person thinks he may be worth, it leaves the Leafs with 4 very highly paid forwards and a certainty that they will need to be creative and turn the extra pieces in and out every year or two. I would rather that they have the cap space to resign guys like Muzzin and Barrie.

But hey, whatever I think doesn't matter one bit in any of this, so it's just my two cents.

I would be surprised if Montreal did it. They'd have to go to 11 to sign him. If they were willing to do that, why low ball Ago?

 

[Bullfrog]

Marner would be different. Mtl tried to strong-arm Carolina financially with the contract structure. They'd know for sure that Tor wouldn't have any issue with signing bonuses, so the AAV would have to be ridiculous.

 

[Zee]

Marner would be different. Mtl tried to strong-arm Carolina financially with the contract structure. They'd know for sure that Tor wouldn't have any issue with signing bonuses, so the AAV would have to be ridiculous.

Bergevin has been hesitant to give up draft picks, especially first rounders, would he be willing to go to the 4 firsts level?  Doubt it.  He also mentioned in the Aho offer sheet he wanted to offer a contract that would make sense for his team as well, in what world does paying Marner one of the highest contracts in the league make sense for his team?

Of course if the sticking point with Marner and Leafs is the term of 5 years, Bergevin could offer 5 x $10.5M which I think Marner would accept, and it would only be the 2nd tier compensation for picks.  Leafs would match that contract, but it's not one they would be happy with.

 

[bustaheims]

Montreal would have to free up a fair amount of cap space to fit Marner in at anything more than ~$10.5M. Unless they already have some deals lined up, a really significant offer sheet isn't coming from them.

EDIT: Honestly, looking around the league, there really aren't many teams that have the cap space to make a huge offer and aren't facing a similar situation with a prominent RFA of their own. At this point, I don't see an offer sheet coming.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Montreal would have to free up a fair amount of cap space to fit Marner in at anything more than ~$10.5M. Unless they already have some deals lined up, a really significant offer sheet isn't coming from them.

EDIT: Honestly, looking around the league, there really aren't many teams that have the cap space to make a huge offer and aren't facing a similar situation with a prominent RFA of their own. At this point, I don't see an offer sheet coming.

Pesky details! Even the Islanders, who people are still saying could do it, only have $8.6mil in cap space at the moment per Capfriendly.

 

[Zee]

Montreal would have to free up a fair amount of cap space to fit Marner in at anything more than ~$10.5M. Unless they already have some deals lined up, a really significant offer sheet isn't coming from them.

EDIT: Honestly, looking around the league, there really aren't many teams that have the cap space to make a huge offer and aren't facing a similar situation with a prominent RFA of their own. At this point, I don't see an offer sheet coming.

Pesky details! Even the Islanders, who people are still saying could do it, only have $8.6mil in cap space at the moment per Capfriendly.

Yep, they seem to think Nick Leddy will be dumped for the cap space, but how many teams are lining up to take 3 years of Nick Leddy at $5.5M without any money going back? 

Colorado has the space but they have their own guy to sign and are probably on good terms with the Leafs after the Kadri deal (given the twitter love-interaction between Colorado twitter and Leafs twitter)

New Jersey?  Maybe -- I could see Shero making a move like this, but then they have Taylor Hall to sign next year and he also has Darren Ferris as an agent so you know that negotiation won't be easy.  Add to that RFA Hischier as well and I don't see Jersey wanting to go down that road.

 

[herman]

Montreal would have to free up a fair amount of cap space to fit Marner in at anything more than ~$10.5M. Unless they already have some deals lined up, a really significant offer sheet isn't coming from them.

EDIT: Honestly, looking around the league, there really aren't many teams that have the cap space to make a huge offer and aren't facing a similar situation with a prominent RFA of their own. At this point, I don't see an offer sheet coming.

Pesky details! Even the Islanders, who people are still saying could do it, only have $8.6mil in cap space at the moment per Capfriendly.

Lou, please tender an 8.6M x 7 offersheet. Paul, please sign it.

 

[L K]

I'm never going to fault a player for wanting lots of money but I'm really having a hard time caring whether Marner signs an offer sheet or not.  If he does, he clearly doesn't want to be a part of the team so good riddance to him.  I'll enjoy him playing away from Tavares where his production will drop.  He's not a 12.5M player at his current level of play and without Tavares up the middle I think he drops down even further.  The Leafs can't afford/justify that kind of contract and while 4 first rounders are a crap shoot, I'd take that plus the cap space to shore up the defense as a big positive.

 

[Bender]

I'm never going to fault a player for wanting lots of money but I'm really having a hard time caring whether Marner signs an offer sheet or not.  If he does, he clearly doesn't want to be a part of the team so good riddance to him.  I'll enjoy him playing away from Tavares where his production will drop.  He's not a 12.5M player at his current level of play and without Tavares up the middle I think he drops down even further.  The Leafs can't afford/justify that kind of contract and while 4 first rounders are a crap shoot, I'd take that plus the cap space to shore up the defense as a big positive.

Wait. Aho signed an offer sheet and I really don't think he didn't want to be part of the Canes. It's not the nicest way to negotiate but there aren't many options. You could easily fix this whole thing by giving these RFA's arbitration rights.

Also thinking out loud, I also don't think Marner is really the marquee RFA here. I mean, there are other RFAs out there who provide a decent level of what Marner provides but for probably way less money and possibly less headache as the team doesn't have to deal with Paul Marner & Darren Ferris, so wouldn't someone like Brayden Point, Rantanen, Tkachuk be more attractive targets? Why hamstring yourself with a player who is overvaluing himself when the other guys might take less and give you more flexibility?

On a side note, I would dump Ceci for a replacement level RHD @ $1mil and get even more cap space to shore up the defense lol. 

 

[Zee]

I'm never going to fault a player for wanting lots of money but I'm really having a hard time caring whether Marner signs an offer sheet or not.  If he does, he clearly doesn't want to be a part of the team so good riddance to him.  I'll enjoy him playing away from Tavares where his production will drop.  He's not a 12.5M player at his current level of play and without Tavares up the middle I think he drops down even further.  The Leafs can't afford/justify that kind of contract and while 4 first rounders are a crap shoot, I'd take that plus the cap space to shore up the defense as a big positive.

I don't think Marner wants to leave, but the problem is signing a slight overpay offersheet may be the quickest way for him to get a deal done with the Leafs.  Rumors have swirled that the Leafs are fine giving him a double-digit number IF the term is 6 years or more.  If the Marner camp is stuck at 5 years like Matthews, maybe a 10.5x5 gets it done.  Leafs would absolutely match that as the compensation is under 4 first rounders, and Marner gets his 5 years that he wants.

Push comes to shove and some team is offering him 11 million or more, maybe he then realizes Leafs might not match that contract,  would he actually be willing to leave for the sake of a million more per season?  I know a million is a lot of money but when we're talking upwards of $50M, how much is enough?

 

[herman]

The fun part is that no teams want any part of spending 4 1sts and then 12M for 5+ years on one player (that's not McDavid).

 

[herman]

Why do people say the Leafs can't afford a pro-rated first year cap hit if Marner takes this past opening day?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Why do people say the Leafs can't afford a pro-rated first year cap hit if Marner takes this past opening day?

Because it was very, very poorly explained at first with Nylander. I don't blame them.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I see people are taking incarceratedbob seriously again lmao

 

[Zee]

I see people are taking incarceratedbob seriously again lmao

What's he saying now?  Isles offer sheet?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I see people are taking incarceratedbob seriously again lmao

What's he saying now?  Isles offer sheet?

"Chatter", so nothing serious. It's just been years since I've heard the name I'm surprised he's still going at it.

 

[Zee]

I see people are taking incarceratedbob seriously again lmao

What's he saying now?  Isles offer sheet?

"Chatter", so nothing serious. It's just been years since I've heard the name I'm surprised he's still going at it.

Ah yes the infamous chatter like Pagnotta said yesterday.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/FAN590/status/1147134043307290624

Oh well yeah we should absolutely trust the word of Joey Vendetta who *checks notes*... no sorry I have no notes on him and neither does the internet who is this guy?