Mitch Marner: what now?

[ZBBM]

It might be helpful to keep in mind the 2 business models in play here:

NHL TEAMS put entertaining players on the ice in order to make money from fans.  They exist in a universe where, every year, they are given roughly 7 assets, whose salaries are cost-controlled for the first few years, and over whom they have near-exclusive control during that time.  They have the option of giving up as many as 4 of the highest-ranked of these assets if they are willing to overpay for a single one of another team's assets.

TALK RADIO puts entertaining talk on the air to make money from fans.  They exist in a universe where, every minute of every day, content must be spewed out.  The factual accuracy of that content is a minor consideration; first and foremost the content must be noticed.

SUGGESTED TAKEAWAYS:
1.  Offer sheets are very rare for a reason.
2.  Talk radio will never making money by discussing Takeaway #1.

 

[Bender]

I'm never going to fault a player for wanting lots of money but I'm really having a hard time caring whether Marner signs an offer sheet or not.  If he does, he clearly doesn't want to be a part of the team so good riddance to him.  I'll enjoy him playing away from Tavares where his production will drop.  He's not a 12.5M player at his current level of play and without Tavares up the middle I think he drops down even further.  The Leafs can't afford/justify that kind of contract and while 4 first rounders are a crap shoot, I'd take that plus the cap space to shore up the defense as a big positive.

I don't think Marner wants to leave, but the problem is signing a slight overpay offersheet may be the quickest way for him to get a deal done with the Leafs.  Rumors have swirled that the Leafs are fine giving him a double-digit number IF the term is 6 years or more.  If the Marner camp is stuck at 5 years like Matthews, maybe a 10.5x5 gets it done.  Leafs would absolutely match that as the compensation is under 4 first rounders, and Marner gets his 5 years that he wants.

Push comes to shove and some team is offering him 11 million or more, maybe he then realizes Leafs might not match that contract,  would he actually be willing to leave for the sake of a million more per season?  I know a million is a lot of money but when we're talking upwards of $50M, how much is enough?

If he signs the OS and takes a hike over a couple mil per year he'll quickly become one of the most reviled Leafs in franchise history.

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/FAN590/status/1147134043307290624

Oh well yeah we should absolutely trust the word of Joey Vendetta who *checks notes*... no sorry I have no notes on him and neither does the internet who is this guy?

He has a cool Godfather pic on his twitter page so I have to give him props for that.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

 

[Kin]

Push comes to shove and some team is offering him 11 million or more, maybe he then realizes Leafs might not match that contract,  would he actually be willing to leave for the sake of a million more per season?  I know a million is a lot of money but when we're talking upwards of $50M, how much is enough?

One of the things we've heard a lot is that Marner wants to be valued in the same way that the team values Tavares/Matthews so if he were to sign an offer sheet then the difference in money would again probably be seen in terms of respect rather than a practical difference in terms of financial well being.

 

[Bender]

Push comes to shove and some team is offering him 11 million or more, maybe he then realizes Leafs might not match that contract,  would he actually be willing to leave for the sake of a million more per season?  I know a million is a lot of money but when we're talking upwards of $50M, how much is enough?

One of the things we've heard a lot is that Marner wants to be valued in the same way that the team values Tavares/Matthews so if he were to sign an offer sheet then the difference in money would again probably be seen in terms of respect rather than a practical difference in terms of financial well being.

That level of ego is like cutting off one's nose to spite your face. I want to be respected as on par with my peers and that means getting paid equal to Matthews.

Ok. But is that the only thing that matters? Is respect only defined in terms of dollars?

And in regards to what franchises can do for a player, we read a report that I believe it was either Duszak or Brazeau (don't remember) were considering between us and some other team to sign. The other team was forcing him to pay out of pocket for training hours away whereas we had everything in house. The amenities here are likely second to none and at worst on par with other top tier markets. Would you really give that up to sign an offer sheet to play in New Jersey or Long Island or whatever? Or to a team that may not even be a contender for years?

 

[disco]

So let me get this straight. Absolute END-GAME LEVERAGE for the Marner camp is:

1) Offer sheet from some team that gets him up to $11-13
2) Mitch signs. He's now player of said team.
3) Leafs match.
4) Mitch accepts and has his Leafs contract.

Step two and putting pen to paper would have to be based on Mitch actually willing to play there. I don't think he signs it. I think they go back to the Leafs after said offer sheet and say: what say thee now? Then Mitch picks up the phone right before camp and takes the best offer to stay in Toronto.

Also, 4 1sts and a contract in McDavid territory is hella compensation/cost. Again, who has the recklessness to do this? Just not good team-building.

 

[Zee]

I wonder if all this "chatter" about offersheets is coming from the same source?  First this Pagnotta dude, now some livenation guy Joey Vendetta, are they both talking to Ferris as their source?  Is Joey's "source" Pagnotta?  Seems like rumors are picking up so there's at least someone saying something.  My guess is it's Ferris talking to other people now that Dreger has gone relatively silent.

 

[Kin]

That level of ego is like cutting off one's nose to spite your face. I want to be respected as on par with my peers and that means getting paid equal to Matthews.

Ok. But is that the only thing that matters? Is respect only defined in terms of dollars?

I don't know if it's the only thing that matters to Marner but I tend to think that for a lot of NHL players a lot of the other things that might matter to most people when it comes to deciding on a job tend to all be more or less the same when it comes to picking between NHL teams.

And in regards to what franchises can do for a player, we read a report that I believe it was either Duszak or Brazeau (don't remember) were considering between us and some other team to sign. The other team was forcing him to pay out of pocket for training hours away whereas we had everything in house. The amenities here are likely second to none and at worst on par with other top tier markets. Would you really give that up to sign an offer sheet to play in New Jersey or Long Island or whatever? Or to a team that may not even be a contender for years?

I don't know. Are the amenities bad in New Jersey? Do the Devils not treat players well? Or at various other teams? I think we'd have to see what team he signs with before we tried to weigh out how they compared to the Leafs in terms of the stuff you're talking about.

 

[Redleaf]

F-it. I'll just throw my Marner framed poster (still boxed) out the window, along with my Marner Jersey. It aint gonna be worth anything if this story has legs and he moves on. Keep the 4 1sts and turn them into the best picks possible. This team is still young enough to see those guys mature. OR, flip them for another solid top 2 D-man and a good forward replacement for Marner.

 

[Fanatic]

I have a question that someone here may know the answer to. I cannot find anything on this.

If compensation for an offer sheet were to be 4 first round picks, I have been led to believe that these four picks can be over a five year period. Question then is this - do the picks need to be firmed up at the time that the transaction is completed, or can the team paying the picks decide along the way? So, if the team paying the four picks has an awful year can they elect to keep that one and pay from the other 4 years, for example?

 

[Kin]

I have a question that someone here may know the answer to. I cannot find anything on this.

If compensation for an offer sheet were to be 4 first round picks, I have been led to believe that these four picks can be over a five year period. Question then is this - do the picks need to be firmed up at the time that the transaction is completed, or can the team paying the picks decide along the way? So, if the team paying the four picks has an awful year can they elect to keep that one and pay from the other 4 years, for example?

Nope. It's just the next available picks.

 

[Zee]

I have a question that someone here may know the answer to. I cannot find anything on this.

If compensation for an offer sheet were to be 4 first round picks, I have been led to believe that these four picks can be over a five year period. Question then is this - do the picks need to be firmed up at the time that the transaction is completed, or can the team paying the picks decide along the way? So, if the team paying the four picks has an awful year can they elect to keep that one and pay from the other 4 years, for example?

I think it's automatic. If you have your next 4 first round picks you hand them over. If you happened to trade one of those first round picks already then the other team gets 4 out of 5 years

 

[Zee]

Ferris : "Kyle have you heard all those reports about a potential offer sheet coming?"

Dubas : "yes Darren I'm aware of those reports"

Ferris : "thinking of upping your offer now hmm?"

Dubas : "no Darren you know our position"

Ferris : "you're saying I wasted my time leaking all that stuff?"

Dubas : "yes Darren"

 

[princedpw]

That level of ego is like cutting off one's nose to spite your face. I want to be respected as on par with my peers and that means getting paid equal to Matthews.

Ok. But is that the only thing that matters? Is respect only defined in terms of dollars?

I think it would be very easy for a well-meaning, honest, and generally even outwardly humble person to get caught up in wanting a salary that matched his friend simply because it "felt fair" to him and no one wants to be treated in a way they perceive as unfair.  It's easy to see why Marner, who took on responsibility in more aspects of the game (pk), outscored him, has been healthier and hence played in more games, etc. would feel it was fair to get a matching salary.  If I were in that situation, I'd probably think it was fair to get a matching salary too.  Of course, I know all the reasons one can argue that Marner only deserves 9-9.5 based on league-wide comparables and we don't need to rehash those.  I can simply see both the Leafs side (wanting 9) and the Marner side (wanting 11).

But still, if I was Marner, I wouldn't sign an offersheet with another team.  It just seems like too much fun to play for the leafs.  The unfairness of $9/year isn't enough to overcome the fun times in leaf land.

 

[princedpw]

... And if Marner does get a $12/year deal then it would be neat to roll into the season with this defence:

Gardiner - Reilly
Muzzin - Barrie
Dermott - Marincin

as well as essentially infinite deadline cap space and 7 first round draft picks over the next four years to add a player midseason.

But could Montreal really give Marner a 12.5 million offersheet?  It looks like they only have 8.5 million in cap space according to cap friendly.

Other fun facts:  Montreal had the 2nd worst goal differential of any playoff team.  Weber's getting older and worse but no less costly.  If I had to bet, I'd bet that Montreal doesn't make the playoffs at least once in the next 4 years.  Oh, and we could offersheet Max Domi next year. 

 

[herman]

Oh, and we could offersheet Max Domi next year Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

 

[herman]

Why do people say the Leafs can't afford a pro-rated first year cap hit if Marner takes this past opening day?

Because it was very, very poorly explained at first with Nylander. I don't blame them.

Deebo did a really good job of it.

 

[Redleaf]

Oh, and we could offersheet Max Domi next year Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

Lol. I would think Domi would be excited to come back home if that were to ever come about. Also isn?t he basically Kadri 2.0?

 

[herman]

Oh, and we could offersheet Max Domi next year Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

Lol. I would think Domi would be excited to come back home if that were to ever come about. Also isn?t he basically Kadri 2.0?

Don't let Max hear you say that. They'll take his MAGA hat away.