Mitch Marner: what now?

[Zee]

Sure but then Panarin is a 30+ goal scorer and has never played with Tavares either.

Admittedly. He played his first two seasons, where he had those 30 goal seasons, with someone who's significantly better offensively than Tavares.

But his overall points went up away from Kane while playing mostly with Dubois. So is he driving the line or the other way around?  Marner's huge jump in production came when he was paired with an elite center like Tavares, whereas Panarin has been consistent and overall better than Marner regardless of linemates.

 

[Kin]

But his overall points went up away from Kane while playing mostly with Dubois.

Well, scoring all over the league was up last year. If you use hockeyreference's adjusted scoring there's virtually no change for Panarin over the course of his four years in the league.

And Atkinson-Dubois is a pretty good couple of linemates regardless.

Marner's huge jump in production came when he was paired with an elite center like Tavares, whereas Panarin has been consitent and overall better than Marner regardless of linemates.

Marner's big jump in production also came with the league's scoring being up, getting significantly more ice time and PP time and not being quite so much of a skinny teenager anymore and what I think we can assume is some natural development that comes with age. And I think it's that age that you're ignoring as the key factor here. Panarin's career has been his ages 24-27 seasons and you're trying to compare them to Marner's 19-21 years.

Probably in retrospect, Marner's sophomore year is more impressive than either of Panarin's years with Chicago with everything factored in.

 

[Kin]

I mean, just for some comparison, here's Marner as a 20 year old vs. those two Chicago years

Goals:

Panarin '17 - 31
Panarin '16 - 30
Marner '18 - 22

Points:

Panarin '16 - 77
Panarin '17 - 72
Marner ' 18 - 69

Ice Time:

Panarin '17 - 19:28
Panarin '16 - 18:31
Marner '18 - 16:23

PP Ice Time:

Panarin '17 - 257:44
Panarin '16 - 227:02
Marner '18 - 179:59

Best Linemate:

Panarin '16 - Patrick Kane 46g, 60a/won the Art Ross and Hart
Mitch Marner '18 - Naz Kadri 32g, 23a/did not win the Art Ross and Hart


I mean, if you want to make a case that Panarin was the better scorer than Marner in those years...best of luck.

 

[Bates]

The fact us even if you consider Marner and Panarin equal one of them can be signed for only money and the other requires 4 first round picks as well for same money. Leafs need to stick to their guns or take the haul of picks. And just because someone was dumb enough to pay Panarin that much changes nothing for me, I take the smart approach ala Aho

 

[Kin]

Also, I know zone starts have fallen out of favour as a meaningful metric but holy goodness. It's like Panarin's coaches will fine him if they ever catch him in the defensive zone.

 

[Redleaf]

Question for someone here.... If Marner chooses to sit out the entire ?19-20 season, does he still become a UFA this time next year? I?m assuming it?s a yes, but not entirely sure .

 

[Zee]

Question for someone here.... If Marner chooses to sit out the entire ?19-20 season, does he still become a UFA this time next year? I?m assuming it?s a yes, but not entirely sure .

No.

 

[louisstamos]

Question for someone here.... If Marner chooses to sit out the entire ?19-20 season, does he still become a UFA this time next year? I?m assuming it?s a yes, but not entirely sure .

No.

Zee's right.  With some exceptions (i.e: unqualified, UFA IV, etc), in order to be UFA it requires either being 27 years old, or 7 years of service.  If Marner sits out the whole year, it does not count towards his years of service *and* the Leafs would retain his rights.

 

[disco]

That level of ego is like cutting off one's nose to spite your face. I want to be respected as on par with my peers and that means getting paid equal to Matthews.

Ok. But is that the only thing that matters? Is respect only defined in terms of dollars?

I think it would be very easy for a well-meaning, honest, and generally even outwardly humble person to get caught up in wanting a salary that matched his friend simply because it "felt fair" to him and no one wants to be treated in a way they perceive as unfair.  It's easy to see why Marner, who took on responsibility in more aspects of the game (pk), outscored him, has been healthier and hence played in more games, etc. would feel it was fair to get a matching salary.  If I were in that situation, I'd probably think it was fair to get a matching salary too.  Of course, I know all the reasons one can argue that Marner only deserves 9-9.5 based on league-wide comparables and we don't need to rehash those.  I can simply see both the Leafs side (wanting 9) and the Marner side (wanting 11).

But still, if I was Marner, I wouldn't sign an offersheet with another team.  It just seems like too much fun to play for the leafs.  The unfairness of $9/year isn't enough to overcome the fun times in leaf land.

A lot of good takes in this thread. I agree it's about respect. The cash... well, MarnerInc. schills for like, ten different companies. Clan Marner will be very comfortable in the future. I actually think he's just as valuable as Auston and JT. Thing is, it's a cap league now and those two went first, JT as the big free-agent fish and Auston as the 1st overall number-one center. If either of those guys aren't in the picture I don't think it comes to this.

 

[Redleaf]

Thanks guys. Glad that was cleared up because I was leaning toward a yes.

 

[princedpw]

Question for someone here.... If Marner chooses to sit out the entire ?19-20 season, does he still become a UFA this time next year? I?m assuming it?s a yes, but not entirely sure .

5 months too early for such questions

 

[slapshot]

Rumbles of a $12.5 million offer sheet coming from the Islanders to Marner. Do the Leafs match or let him walk?

If they match, they will have to offload another player to make it happen. Would Ceci be the likely candidate?

If they let him walk to the Islanders, it would be like a trade of Tavares and 4 first round picks for Marner.

Quite frankly I getting pretty sick of this a Leaf fan. Yeah, he's "earned the right" blah, blah, blah. But if money and ego are the motivating factors, let him take his selfishness down the highway. I feel bad for his teammates. They want to build a winner in Toronto and all share in it together, but if he does want that we'll see where his loyalty really lies.

If the offer is $12.5 million as reported, the Islander could only offer 7 years. Could the Leafs come back and say will give you $12.5 but only if it's an eight-year deal. Could they do that, technically, and still say within the perimeters of the match?

Personally, if I couldn't extend him to eight years for that kind of money, I just let his butt go. Enough is enough.  Let the rest of the guys lift the Cup without him.

 

[slapshot]

Also, if I were Dubas, I'd have Matthews, Tavares, Rielly, and maybe Anderson, in on this conversation, along with management. This is a crossroads kind of decision and the whole franchises needs to be a united front.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Rumbles of a $12.5 million offer sheet coming from the Islanders to Marner. Do the Leafs match or let him walk?


If they match, they will have to offload another player to make it happen. Would Ceci be the likely candidate?

If they let him walk to the Islanders, it would be like a trade of Tavares and 4 first round picks for Marner.

Quite frankly I getting pretty sick of this a Leaf fan. Yeah, he's "earned the right" blah, blah, blah. But if money and ego are the motivating factors, let him take his selfishness down the highway. I feel bad for his teammates. They want to build a winner in Toronto and all share in it together, but if he does want that we'll see where his loyalty really lies.

If the offer is $12.5 million as reported, the Islander could only offer 7 years. Could the Leafs come back and say will give you $12.5 but only if it's an eight-year deal. Could they do that, technically, and still say within the perimeters of the match?

Personally, if I couldn't extend him to eight years for that kind of money, I just let his butt go. Enough is enough.  Let the rest of the guys lift the Cup without him.

Leafs would only be allowed to match the offer. Does anyone really see Marner getting McDavid money? Seriously? As for getting rid of players. Yes they will have to move a contract or 2. Ceci would be at the top of my list.
Leafs basically have 12.1 in space right now as Hyman and Dermott will be on LTIR to start the year. Dermott's is easy to replace as they'll send Holl or Marincin to the Marlies. Hyman creates a 2.2 million dollar issue. They'll need to clear at least that to get him back in the lineup. So they can dump Hyman for a pick or someone else. Again, I would lean to Ceci being the guy and hope Liljegren/Borgman can go.
So yes they can match the 12.5 pretty easily but I would only think about doing it if it's for 7 years.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Question for someone here.... If Marner chooses to sit out the entire ?19-20 season, does he still become a UFA this time next year? I?m assuming it?s a yes, but not entirely sure .

5 months too early for such questions

Strictly speaking, if his suspicions/assumptions about this were correct (which, as already discussed, they're not), then it would be entirely relevant right now.

 

[Kin]

Quite frankly I getting pretty sick of this a Leaf fan. Yeah, he's "earned the right" blah, blah, blah. But if money and ego are the motivating factors, let him take his selfishness down the highway. I feel bad for his teammates. They want to build a winner in Toronto and all share in it together, but if he does want that we'll see where his loyalty really lies.

That seems pretty unfair to Marner. Guys like Tavares and Matthews don't want to win any more than Marner does, Dubas was just willing to give them the contracts they wanted. They were more than capable of taking less than they felt they deserved to make it easier on the Leafs and their ability to win but, what, because Marner's the last guy to sign somehow it's incumbent on him to take one for the team? None of the deals the Leafs have signed recently involved anyone doing the Leafs any favours.

 

[Bates]

Quite frankly I getting pretty sick of this a Leaf fan. Yeah, he's "earned the right" blah, blah, blah. But if money and ego are the motivating factors, let him take his selfishness down the highway. I feel bad for his teammates. They want to build a winner in Toronto and all share in it together, but if he does want that we'll see where his loyalty really lies.

That seems pretty unfair to Marner. Guys like Tavares and Matthews don't want to win any more than Marner does, Dubas was just willing to give them the contracts they wanted. They were more than capable of taking less than they felt they deserved to make it easier on the Leafs and their ability to win but, what, because Marner's the last guy to sign somehow it's incumbent on him to take one for the team? None of the deals the Leafs have signed recently involved anyone doing the Leafs any favours.

So Tavares taking a year less than Islanders and a couple million less than the Sharks offers don't count??

 

[bustaheims]

Quite frankly I getting pretty sick of this a Leaf fan. Yeah, he's "earned the right" blah, blah, blah. But if money and ego are the motivating factors, let him take his selfishness down the highway. I feel bad for his teammates. They want to build a winner in Toronto and all share in it together, but if he does want that we'll see where his loyalty really lies.

That seems pretty unfair to Marner. Guys like Tavares and Matthews don't want to win any more than Marner does, Dubas was just willing to give them the contracts they wanted. They were more than capable of taking less than they felt they deserved to make it easier on the Leafs and their ability to win but, what, because Marner's the last guy to sign somehow it's incumbent on him to take one for the team? None of the deals the Leafs have signed recently involved anyone doing the Leafs any favours.

Not only that, all of this anger seems to be largely fueled by rumours and speculation. Marner hasn?t actually done anything other than not accept the offers the Leafs have made so far. We have no idea what they were, what he?s actually looking for, etc. The media is building a narrative that may not be super connected to reality. Until there?s a contract or offer sheet signed, we?re really grasping at straws here.

 

[Kin]

Also, if I were Dubas, I'd have Matthews, Tavares, Rielly, and maybe Anderson, in on this conversation, along with management. This is a crossroads kind of decision and the whole franchises needs to be a united front.

If you involve his teammates then the likelihood is that it won't be a united decision. At least not if the idea is to let him walk. These guys tend to be loyal to each other and I'm betting that most guys on the Leafs would rather have Marner and a league minimum guy on defense than no Marner and Ceci playing like a league minimum guy.

 

[Zee]

I don't buy this Islanders $12.5M offer sheet BS. One, it's Lou. Two, since when does stuff that Lou is about to do leak like this?