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Mitch Marner: what now?

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https://www.tsn.ca/matthew-tkachuk-s-agent-we-set-a-negotiating-position-in-june-1.1353375

"We took an approach where by we would be very proactive and progressive with Calgary," Meehan told reporters at the Serge Savard Golf Tournament held west of Montreal. "We started early, and we set a position. We didn't really have to wait. We formulated a position that we thought would be fair and we gave that to Calgary probably in the early part of June.

"So we're involved in negotiations right now, but as far as I'm concerned it's not a waiting game. We made a decision in terms of what we think is fair and relevant for the player and we're working with Calgary now."
Click to expand...

Tkachuk isn't budging from his June offers. Rantanen hasn't received an offer from Colorado all summer. Laine couldn't really care less if he played in Winnipeg or not. Marner's picking his own comparables.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
https://www.tsn.ca/matthew-tkachuk-s-agent-we-set-a-negotiating-position-in-june-1.1353375

"We took an approach where by we would be very proactive and progressive with Calgary," Meehan told reporters at the Serge Savard Golf Tournament held west of Montreal. "We started early, and we set a position. We didn't really have to wait. We formulated a position that we thought would be fair and we gave that to Calgary probably in the early part of June.

"So we're involved in negotiations right now, but as far as I'm concerned it's not a waiting game. We made a decision in terms of what we think is fair and relevant for the player and we're working with Calgary now."
Click to expand...

Tkachuk isn't budging from his June offers. Rantanen hasn't received an offer from Colorado all summer. Laine couldn't really care less if he played in Winnipeg or not. Marner's picking his own comparables.
Click to expand...

You've got to think this is going to come up in the next CBA now. Give them arb rights and be done with it.
 
Bender said:
CarltonTheBear said:
https://www.tsn.ca/matthew-tkachuk-s-agent-we-set-a-negotiating-position-in-june-1.1353375

"We took an approach where by we would be very proactive and progressive with Calgary," Meehan told reporters at the Serge Savard Golf Tournament held west of Montreal. "We started early, and we set a position. We didn't really have to wait. We formulated a position that we thought would be fair and we gave that to Calgary probably in the early part of June.

"So we're involved in negotiations right now, but as far as I'm concerned it's not a waiting game. We made a decision in terms of what we think is fair and relevant for the player and we're working with Calgary now."
Click to expand...

Tkachuk isn't budging from his June offers. Rantanen hasn't received an offer from Colorado all summer. Laine couldn't really care less if he played in Winnipeg or not. Marner's picking his own comparables.
Click to expand...

You've got to think this is going to come up in the next CBA now. Give them arb rights and be done with it.
Click to expand...
That is a good idea!
 
Zee said:
Marner's going to Switzerland!
Click to expand...

Maybe, sorta, probably not. For those who aren't on twitter:

https://twitter.com/DhaliwalSports/status/1163859893129863168
https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1163875831405514753

I'm guessing this is more like when Nylander skated with teams in Europe. There's almost no way he actually signs with a European team prior to December 1st. If he gets injured he's screwed, and it also removes the threat of an offer sheet (he'd need to clear waivers if he signed with a team that wasn't the Leafs).
 
This was posted to Twitter back in June.  Credit to Zee for being the first to call it in this thread!

https://twitter.com/KPapetti/status/1143304606384046082
 
louisstamos said:
This was posted to Twitter back in June.  Credit to Zee for being the first to call it in this thread!

https://twitter.com/KPapetti/status/1143304606384046082
Click to expand...

To be fair I was standing on the shoulders of giants when I made this call.
 
Bender said:
You've got to think this is going to come up in the next CBA now. Give them arb rights and be done with it.
Click to expand...

If multiple guys go as long as Nylander then that might prompt some people towards change but a bunch of guys being unsigned a month before training camp begins isn't going to be a big deal.
 
Arbitration isn't really a solution either as besides it being an adversarial process that teams/players don't really like, you'd either have to make it so that RFA's could use it to compare themselves to UFA's to get a fair sense of their market value or keep it so RFA's could only compare themselves to other RFA's which is a dead market and basically kills the appeal of arbitration for players. This isn't to say it couldn't be an issue in the next CBA but if it is it will be pretty contentious depending on the parameters being set.

Remember, there were a lot of people during the Nylander negotiations who said that when looking at the Eichel or Draisaitl deals that it wasn't fair to expect teams to be bound by bad decisions other teams had made. Arbitration basically makes that unavoidable.
 
https://twitter.com/scottcwheeler/status/1163927667508486145

Because the Leafs committed to using LTIR, it will be impossible for the Leafs to sign Marner to anything more than ~10.5M AAV deeper into the season because of the pro-rated first year cap hit exceeding our LTIR room.

Because he also has no intention of playing outside of Toronto and no one is willing to offer a mind changing amount in addition to the 4 1sts, the only thing we are waiting for is how many years Marner will sign at the close of pre-season.
 
herman said:
https://twitter.com/scottcwheeler/status/1163927667508486145

Because the Leafs committed to using LTIR, it will be impossible for the Leafs to sign Marner to anything more than ~10.5M AAV deeper into the season because of the pro-rated first year cap hit exceeding our LTIR room.

Because he also has no intention of playing outside of Toronto and no one is willing to offer a mind changing amount in addition to the 4 1sts, the only thing we are waiting for is how many years Marner will sign at the close of pre-season.
Click to expand...

I don't know if it's completely unlikely that he burns the year.
 
Nik the Trik said:
Bender said:
You've got to think this is going to come up in the next CBA now. Give them arb rights and be done with it.
Click to expand...

If multiple guys go as long as Nylander then that might prompt some people towards change but a bunch of guys being unsigned a month before training camp begins isn't going to be a big deal.
Click to expand...

Right, I'm thinking about it more if they don't show for training camp, miss games, pull a Nylander, possibly burn a year etc.
 
Nik the Trik said:
Arbitration isn't really a solution either as besides it being an adversarial process that teams/players don't really like, you'd either have to make it so that RFA's could use it to compare themselves to UFA's to get a fair sense of their market value or keep it so RFA's could only compare themselves to other RFA's which is a dead market and basically kills the appeal of arbitration for players. This isn't to say it couldn't be an issue in the next CBA but if it is it will be pretty contentious depending on the parameters being set.

Remember, there were a lot of people during the Nylander negotiations who said that when looking at the Eichel or Draisaitl deals that it wasn't fair to expect teams to be bound by bad decisions other teams had made. Arbitration basically makes that unavoidable.
Click to expand...

It isn't ideal but I think it's better than the process we have now. RFAs get arb rights in their second deals anyway and it's up to the player's & team's representatives to make their cases to the arbitrator. Let the rep make the case that another team shouldn't be punished by bad decisions and let the arbitrator make the call.
 
Bender said:
I don't know if it's completely unlikely that he burns the year.
Click to expand...

I would say it's extremely unlikely. There's a good chance there's a lockout next year. Think he'd risk two years of his prime years?

Regardless of what he signs for, he will be making an obscene amount of money and will probably earn more than $20 MILLION within the next 366 days (assuming he gets large signing bonuses.) He's not going to risk that.

He might miss out on some training camp, but I'm certain he'll be in a Maple Leafs jersey on day one of the season.
 
Updates from a couple other RFAs:

https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/ben-kuzma-canucks-hoping-to-get-boeser-contract-extension-done-before-camp-opens

Boeser is asking for 4 years with a $7mil AAV. Similar, but higher than, the deal that Timo Meier signed with San Jose. Since he apparently doesn't know he can just say "no comment" Benning pretty much admitted this was true while also saying he wouldn't be interested in back-loading the deal like Meier did.

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/08/15/avalanche-joe-sakic-on-mikko-rantanen

This article doesn't mention what Rantanen's ask is because I'm pretty sure there hasn't been one yet. Sakic basically admits dialogue hasn't really even started yet on the contract. It says Sakic called Rantanen personally recently to see if he wants a short term or long term deal, and that's basically all the communication that's taken place between the two sides since the draft.
 
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