Mitch Marner

[Kin]

I wouldn't do it. I don't like any of those UFAs enough(except Karlsson but I'm not thrilled with paying him that much past 34 or 35).

To some extent though it would depend on the team that made the offer sheet. But even then I think the Kessel rule should apply here in terms of future draft picks where you have to evaluate the trade in terms of the worst possible outcome re: the picks. Having 4 bonus 25-32 slot picks just doesn't seem that exciting.

I agree that the team making the offer would matter.

But why the Kessel rule?  Why make your decision based only on the minimal possible return?  As opposed to the range of returns or some model of expected value?

I'm not saying your only consideration should be whether or not it would still make sense in that situation, just that you should take that into consideration as a very real possibility. If so much of a trade's value is completely beyond your control and there are too many variables to come up with a realistic model of expected value that worst case scenario should always be in your mind.

It's, in a sense, like gambling. I'd really recommend that the first thing any gambler takes into consideration on a bet is whether or not they can afford to bust out.

 

[Zee]

All of this talk is moot if Marner's camp is simply using the threat of offer sheets to drive up their price.  They would have to be prepared to leave Toronto if they actually sign this imaginary offer sheet that Dreger says is 100% legit.  If Marner is ready and willing to leave the Leafs for a higher value contract, you have to weigh the pros and cons of it when that time comes.  See what the offer sheet is, which team is offering it, what else is available in free agency at the time that Marner accepts his offer sheet, and your own cap situation based on whatever number the offer sheet has.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

All of this talk is moot if Marner's camp is simply using the threat of offer sheets to drive up their price.  They would have to be prepared to leave Toronto if they actually sign this imaginary offer sheet that Dreger says is 100% legit.  If Marner is ready and willing to leave the Leafs for a higher value contract, you have to weigh the pros and cons of it when that time comes.  See what the offer sheet is, which team is offering it, what else is available in free agency at the time that Marner accepts his offer sheet, and your own cap situation based on whatever number the offer sheet has.

Answer the question you coward.

 

[Bullfrog]

Goodbye Marner, hello Panarin + 4 1st rounders.

In truth, it's a hard decision to make, but you could do a lot with those picks.

Could you really? I mean, aside from the hope that one of those picks would actually quickly turn into a productive player wouldn't the only real thing you could do with them is flip them into mid-tier guys who would cost in the 5-7 million range?

Having that sort of wealth of picks sounds alluring in theory but I feel like in practice unless you're in Vegas' cap situation the idea of adding a Muzzin or McDonagh or two would just be compounding the cap situation that presumably makes Marner hard to sign in the first place.

For the picks, I'm thinking draft-day deals and the like. With someone like Panarin on the team, the immediate and near future needs are taken care of. The picks are for future moves; like cash in the bank. You could simply keep them and make the draft picks.

Of course, the downside is you're getting a player that's 5+ years older than Marner.

 

[Kin]

For the picks, I'm thinking draft-day deals and the like. With someone like Panarin on the team, the immediate and near future needs are taken care of. The picks are for future moves; like cash in the bank. You could simply keep them and make the draft picks.

But that's what I'm saying. You're very limited in what you can actually spend those picks on outside of just using them because losing Marner and signing Panarin puts you in effectively the exact same cap squeeze you're in now. If you don't have the cap room, having the draft picks to trade for Dougie Hamilton or whoever is irrelevant.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Another interesting question: which team in the league could offer sheet Marner, pay him 11-12 million, give up 4 first rounders and improve their cup chances over the next 5-7 years?

Islanders.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I think you have to consider it. I'm less sold on Stone - he's having a great season, but I think he's more of a 60ish point guy that the point-a-game guy he's been this year; whereas Panarin and Karlsson are at a similar talent level as Marner. Even still, with those 4 extra 1st round picks . . .

He is about to put up back-to-back PPG seasons now, is the youngest of the 3, would be the cheapest of the 3, and is probably the best defensively of the 3.

I think people are under rating Mark Stone. He's a hell of a player and is turning 27 this spring. If you can sign him to under $10M I would consider it. I think him playing with Tavares he could put up 80-90 points.

Totally agree. This guy is a star.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

For the picks, I'm thinking draft-day deals and the like. With someone like Panarin on the team, the immediate and near future needs are taken care of. The picks are for future moves; like cash in the bank. You could simply keep them and make the draft picks.

But that's what I'm saying. You're very limited in what you can actually spend those picks on outside of just using them because losing Marner and signing Panarin puts you in effectively the exact same cap squeeze you're in now. If you don't have the cap room, having the draft picks to trade for Dougie Hamilton or whoever is irrelevant.

We wouldn't have room right away, but if we waited a year for Marleau's deal then there would be space to use those 1sts to bring in a defensive upgrade. Could also just use them for extra darts to continue the cycle of replacing guys like Brown/Kapanen when they price themselves out of our salary structure.

 

[Zee]

All of this talk is moot if Marner's camp is simply using the threat of offer sheets to drive up their price.  They would have to be prepared to leave Toronto if they actually sign this imaginary offer sheet that Dreger says is 100% legit.  If Marner is ready and willing to leave the Leafs for a higher value contract, you have to weigh the pros and cons of it when that time comes.  See what the offer sheet is, which team is offering it, what else is available in free agency at the time that Marner accepts his offer sheet, and your own cap situation based on whatever number the offer sheet has.

Answer the question you coward.

Haha, I thought I did.  I said I would take a look at Mark Stone.

It's a timing issue though.  All those UFAs can start talking with teams a week before July 1st and in doing so, the deals will all be most likely announced on July 1.  Teams can't offer sheet Marner until the 1st at the earliest, so the Leafs would have to

a) negotiate with one of the 3 UFAs (let's say Stone for argument's sake) and have a deal ready to go by July 1.  In doing so, they're prepared to walk away from Marner because you won't be able to afford both Stone and Marner

b) If they've signed Stone as of July 1, and NO offer sheet is presented for Marner, what then? Trade Marner?  They've pretty much boxed themselves into that by giving big money to Stone no?

So to answer your question, if they could sign Stone for say 7 years, $9.5M and Marner is offered 7 years, $12M, I would take the Stone deal and the 4 first round picks for Marner.

Both Marner and Stone are elite level right wingers, Marner has the advantage in age, but Stone could give you similar production at a much lower cost during your cup window of the next 4-5 years.

 

[Kin]

[quote author=CarltonTheBear]
We wouldn't have room right away, but if we waited a year for Marleau's deal then there would be space to use those 1sts to bring in a defensive upgrade.
[/quote]

Maybe but there'd also be just, you know, cap space to upgrade the defense.

I'm not saying that those picks wouldn't have value, just that there would be a scale of diminishing returns. Realistically, so long as you have 4 forwards signed for 40ish million you can only add a piece or two via that sort of trade before you can't do it again.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It's a timing issue though.  All those UFAs can start talking with teams a week before July 1st and in doing so, the deals will all be most likely announced on July 1.  Teams can't offer sheet Marner until the 1st at the earliest, so the Leafs would have to

a) negotiate with one of the 3 UFAs (let's say Stone for argument's sake) and have a deal ready to go by July 1.  In doing so, they're prepared to walk away from Marner because you won't be able to afford both Stone and Marner

Yeah the timing of this would have to be absolutely perfect. RFAs do get the same 1-week interview process before July 1st that UFAs get so if Marner's camp gets the sense that the Leafs are nowhere near offering him $12mil then they could jump start talks with teams about an offer sheet then I believe. But yeah it would certainly require the Leafs target UFA to be unsigned by the time Marner signs his offer sheet.

I really think the entire scenario is completely, 99.5% unrealistic, just something fun to think about.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Seeing you "can't" negotiate numbers, I think the Leafs will have an idea if any of them would come to the Leafs. I also think the Leafs will know what's going on before July 1 with Marner and what the ask is. Dubas and company are smart so I'm sure they'll investigate all avenues.

 

[princedpw]

With so many first rounders, you might be able to do so interesting things to help out your cap. Would St Louis do Parayko for Zaitsev and 3 first rounders? (would it be worth it for the leafs?). Would they do Pietrangelo and agree to retain 3mill of his salary?

 

[Coco-puffs]

With so many first rounders, you might be able to do so interesting things to help out your cap. Would St Louis do Parayko for Zaitsev and 3 first rounders? (would it be worth it for the leafs?). Would they do Pietrangelo and agree to retain 3mill of his salary?

I doubt St. Louis would do that.  Looking at it another way, would you trade Mitch and Z for Parayako and a 1st?

That is way less attractive than essentially trading Mitch for four 1sts and one of Karlsson/Panarin/Stone

 

[Kin]

With so many first rounders, you might be able to do so interesting things to help out your cap. Would St Louis do Parayko for Zaitsev and 3 first rounders? (would it be worth it for the leafs?). Would they do Pietrangelo and agree to retain 3mill of his salary?

Like I said, I think it boils down to a pretty basic question. Given three random first rounders, how good are your odds to end up with even one player as good as Parayko?

 

[Zee]

It's a timing issue though.  All those UFAs can start talking with teams a week before July 1st and in doing so, the deals will all be most likely announced on July 1.  Teams can't offer sheet Marner until the 1st at the earliest, so the Leafs would have to

a) negotiate with one of the 3 UFAs (let's say Stone for argument's sake) and have a deal ready to go by July 1.  In doing so, they're prepared to walk away from Marner because you won't be able to afford both Stone and Marner

Yeah the timing of this would have to be absolutely perfect. RFAs do get the same 1-week interview process before July 1st that UFAs get so if Marner's camp gets the sense that the Leafs are nowhere near offering him $12mil then they could jump start talks with teams about an offer sheet then I believe. But yeah it would certainly require the Leafs target UFA to be unsigned by the time Marner signs his offer sheet.

I really think the entire scenario is completely, 99.5% unrealistic, just something fun to think about.

Oh I didn't realize RFAs could talk to other teams a week before as well.

 

[Coco-puffs]

With so many first rounders, you might be able to do so interesting things to help out your cap. Would St Louis do Parayko for Zaitsev and 3 first rounders? (would it be worth it for the leafs?). Would they do Pietrangelo and agree to retain 3mill of his salary?

Like I said, I think it boils down to a pretty basic question. Given three random first rounders, how good are your odds to end up with even one player as good as Parayko?

I'd say there is no chance in hell St. Louis would agree to that deal.  If they would have, we'd have Parayako on our team right now instead of Muzzin.  (Ie, I'd rather trade Z + 3 of our own 1st for Parayako vs the Muzzin deal)

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Oh I didn't realize RFAs could talk to other teams a week before as well.

I just double checked, RFAs get a 4-day interview period not the full week UFAs get.

 

[princedpw]

With so many first rounders, you might be able to do so interesting things to help out your cap. Would St Louis do Parayko for Zaitsev and 3 first rounders? (would it be worth it for the leafs?). Would they do Pietrangelo and agree to retain 3mill of his salary?

Like I said, I think it boils down to a pretty basic question. Given three random first rounders, how good are your odds to end up with even one player as good as Parayko?

Small, but the odds are usually small when trading a star. That doesnt appear to be the calculation that teams always make when they are sitting near the bottom of the league like st louis is.

 

[princedpw]

With so many first rounders, you might be able to do so interesting things to help out your cap. Would St Louis do Parayko for Zaitsev and 3 first rounders? (would it be worth it for the leafs?). Would they do Pietrangelo and agree to retain 3mill of his salary?

I doubt St. Louis would do that.  Looking at it another way, would you trade Mitch and Z for Parayako and a 1st?

That is way less attractive than essentially trading Mitch for four 1sts and one of Karlsson/Panarin/Stone

I was thinking of the scenario where you let Mitch go for 4 firsts, sign Karlsson/Panarin/Stone and then flip the firsts and Z for a better defender. The end result is that you stay cap compliant and improve the team.