R2, G2: Panthers @ Maple Leafs - May 4th, 7:00pm - SN, Fan 590

[Zee]

Boo. And I just found out my neighbor is one of those anti-fans that revels in the Leafs losing. I mean if people didn't enjoy me feeling bad and try to make me feel even worse about it, these losses would be way easier to take.

Scratch his car

 

[rdowdall]

Well let's see how they play in Florida

 

[Kin]

Well let's see how they play in Florida

Yup. I know not everyone feels this way but as far as I'm concerned they're playing with house money at this point. Hopefully they can get back into the series and play stronger on the road.

 

[gunnar36]

Their 6 on 5 strategy was to not have Nylander or Matthews in shooting positions.  What the hell was that nonsense

And Reilleys complete inability or refusal to ever shoot the one timer is not helping things either.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Well let's see how they play in Florida

Yup. I know not everyone feels this way but as far as I'm concerned they're playing with house money at this point. Hopefully they can get back into the series and play stronger on the road.

Why do you say house money? I mean you don't think it's cup or bust? Do you think the Cup window will be open for a while?

 

[cw]

Missed bunches of the game.
They're in a very deep hole now.
But the series isn't over.
Hopefully they can turn it around.

 

[Bender]

Brutal result. Felt like we paid for almost every mistake. Florida is a great counter punching team and Bob is blacking out. Feels a bit like Columbus counter punching and Korpisalo having a series. I can't believe the number of chances the Leafs had. Marner has one ill advised back pass and Sammy doesn't make a far side glove save and that's the game right there. The Leafs really can't afford to be sloppy because it's costing them. It'd be one thing if we were just getting overwhelmed but this is self inflicted. And playoff pressure Marner is coming back I fear...

 

[Bender]

Reality is, it's always going to be tricky to go on a deep playoff run when you're sort of sifting through the discount bins for your goaltending. The last few years  the Leafs have been particularly unlucky in that they've run into goalies destined for the HHOF in the first round. This year they finally managed to clear that hurdle but, realistically, if consensus around the league was that Samsonov is the kind of goalie the Leafs need him to be, they wouldn't have been able to sign him for what they signed him for.

There's still time for him to prove that wrong and this series could easily flip if the Leafs top lines start producing but they've made things very tough on themselves now.

Ok, but Bob is 34 and has had an up and down career despite winning the Vezina once and is making $10m per year - huge inefficiency. Salaries for goalies isnt always in line with the value thry provide. I'm not sure I'd arrive at your conclusion at all yet, esp considering Vegas has Laurent freaking Brossoit and so many high quality goaltenders are out right now. You could just as easily say the D or Forwards need to play in line with what they're being paid in terms of results - 2 goals per game likely won't cut it.

 

[Bender]

Their 6 on 5 strategy was to not have Nylander or Matthews in shooting positions.  What the hell was that nonsense

And Reilleys complete inability or refusal to ever shoot the one timer is not helping things either.

Imo it just happened too late. Why it didn't happen the first time the Leafs had possession with around 3mins left is beyond me.

 

[ZBBM]

Aside from Nik's comment on goaltending, which is true, the other reality is something that is already too late to fix. 

Once you make the playoffs, the odds of any team winning the Cup in a given year are still quite low.  The only way to increase those odds ? obviously ? is to win at least 1 round.  For this core group, 2023 should be at least the second or third time that they have reached R2.  All those years where they didn't ? especially against teams like MTL or CBJ ? were doubly wasted opportunities: the losing itself, and the wasting of precious years of the primes of their two best players, Marner and Matthews, as well as Nylander and Rielly, and the late prime of Tavares.  When we look back at these guys 10 years from now, those Lost Years will loom even larger ? especially if they never managed to win it all.

As for now, if Bob is on a heater and they get bounced, well, that's hockey and it happens.  But it burns another year.  And if they can't win it with a Hart Trophy winner and 100-point Selke nominee on their roster....

 

[Kin]

Ok, but Bob is 34 and has had an up and down career despite winning the Vezina once and is making $10m per year - huge inefficiency. Salaries for goalies isnt always in line with the value thry provide.

Obviously salaries for any player aren't necessarily going to perfectly match up all the time with the value they provide but but generally speaking contracts do reflect the way the league feels about a player. Can they be wrong collectively? Sure. Martin St. Louis won the Hart after going undrafted. Would you bet on that happening with most undrafted free agents? No.

Trying to win a cup with a goalie off the scrap heap is difficult. That doesn't strike me as a particularly controversial thing to say when you look at the list of goalies who've actually won cups.

You could just as easily say the D or Forwards need to play in line with what they're being paid in terms of results - 2 goals per game likely won't cut it.

You sure could which is why I...did?

There's still time for him to prove that wrong and this series could easily flip if the Leafs top lines start producing but they've made things very tough on themselves now.

 

[Kin]

Why do you say house money? I mean you don't think it's cup or bust? Do you think the Cup window will be open for a while?

Winning a playoff round has put them in my good graces for now. I think this is something they can build on for next year regardless of how this series goes.

 

[dekedastardly]

So aside from Darryl Sutter, what coaches will be available in the offseason?

 

[4EVRLEAFAN]

Bottom line for me is  Samsonov, he's let in 2 stinkers, one in each game, yes we've made some mistakes that they've capitalized on but our offence is outplaying theirs, we're killing them in faceoff  wins, puck possession,  shots and chances,  without Bobrovsky we're leading this series 2-0. Samsonov has to be better, it really is that simple, to me anyway.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Bottom line for me is  Samsonov, he's let in 2 stinkers, one in each game, yes we've made some mistakes that they've capitalized on but our offence is outplaying theirs, we're killing them in faceoff  wins, puck possession,  shots and chances,  without Bobrovsky we're leading this series 2-0. Samsonov has to be better, it really is that simple, to me anyway.

Goalie Bob has been the better goalie.  You swap goalies and this series 2-0 Leafs.  The team overall has looked pretty good.  A span of under a minute starting the second period and that was the game. 

 

[rdowdall]

So aside from Darryl Sutter, what coaches will be available in the offseason?

Judging from the your question, Sheldon Keefe?

 

[Bender]

Ok, but Bob is 34 and has had an up and down career despite winning the Vezina once and is making $10m per year - huge inefficiency. Salaries for goalies isnt always in line with the value thry provide.

Obviously salaries for any player aren't necessarily going to perfectly match up all the time with the value they provide but but generally speaking contracts do reflect the way the league feels about a player. Can they be wrong collectively? Sure. Martin St. Louis won the Hart after going undrafted. Would you bet on that happening with most undrafted free agents? No.

Trying to win a cup with a goalie off the scrap heap is difficult. That doesn't strike me as a particularly controversial thing to say when you look at the list of goalies who've actually won cups.

You could just as easily say the D or Forwards need to play in line with what they're being paid in terms of results - 2 goals per game likely won't cut it.

You sure could which is why I...did?

There's still time for him to prove that wrong and this series could easily flip if the Leafs top lines start producing but they've made things very tough on themselves now.

I get that in regards to goalies as a general comment, having the best goalie or one in the top 5 in the world is a huge leg up but in the case of this series and Bob specifically he's been good to borderline washed up at random in 4 years in Florida. Heck his stats this year are downright bad, and I know you're not disputing that, but it's just an interesting comment to speak about how the market feels about goalies in general and having a difficult time winning without a name brand goalie when Bob, who was once regarded as an excellent goaltender, was part of the problem most of his time in Florida, or the fact that Colorado won despite having Kuemper or that Binnington went on a run and isn't the same since then, ditto Matt Murray.

I've also heard that front offices have moved away from spending enormous amounts on goalies for this reason - there could be horrific cap inefficiency for years to come when much of goaltending is voodoo. We just saw Ullmark turn into a pumpkin.

But I do agree on Sammy - sometimes players need a change of scenery to thrive, but the book on that Sammy can't be your workhorse was out in Washington and I think it's playing out that way again the longer he plays without a break.

 

[Bender]

Bottom line for me is  Samsonov, he's let in 2 stinkers, one in each game, yes we've made some mistakes that they've capitalized on but our offence is outplaying theirs, we're killing them in faceoff  wins, puck possession,  shots and chances,  without Bobrovsky we're leading this series 2-0. Samsonov has to be better, it really is that simple, to me anyway.

Goalie Bob has been the better goalie.  You swap goalies and this series 2-0 Leafs.  The team overall has looked pretty good.  A span of under a minute starting the second period and that was the game. 

I mean that's literally what it comes down to - Bob got hot when the team needed it. It's the only way they could've beat Boston. In his last 5 starts he's been .917 or above 4 out of 5 and put up a .944+ in two games against the Leafs. That's the series right there. And the Leafs ARE getting their chances. I think the idea that the Leafs are doing anything that stylistically egregious isn't watching the games. We make a couple mistakes and we don't get bailed out. I think Matthews hitting the shaft of Bob's stick on a breakaway in game 1 was a bit of an omen of things to come. The Leafs could've had 5 goals in both games, especially in last night's game but Bob's having a series. They have to clean up their game and literally do everything to not make idiotic plays like Marner's back pass in his own zone while under pressure, but Bob's winning Florida this series - full stop.

 

[L K]

I'm honestly not expecting Bennett to get any supplemental discipline because of George Parros but I absolutely guarantee if a Leafs player did what he did the announcement already would have come out.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Why do you say house money? I mean you don't think it's cup or bust? Do you think the Cup window will be open for a while?

Winning a playoff round has put them in my good graces for now. I think this is something they can build on for next year regardless of how this series goes.

I agree that they will have a chance to be better next year, but I worry about the year after. This year could be their best, or second-best, chance to win for a while. I know I'm a pessimist, hard not to be these days.