Ranking Prospects - 2017-18

[herman]

More on Chebykin's situation:
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2017/7/12/15955736/toronto-maple-leafs-draft-pick-nickolai-chebykin-is-in-limbo-marlies-development-camp

 

[herman]

More on Chebykin's situation:
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2017/7/12/15955736/toronto-maple-leafs-draft-pick-nickolai-chebykin-is-in-limbo-marlies-development-camp

And now he has a new home with SKA-NEVA, CSKA St. Petersburgh's VHL team, for the next two years. I don't know that he'll get an opportunity with the KHL in that time due to CKSA's mad depth; they have been bleeding players to the NHL the past two seasons though.

 

[herman]

HERE WE GO! This is the best part of the offseason for me.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2017/7/24/15983968/top-25-under-25-2017-toronto-maple-leafs-no-love-for-the-bottom-half-of-the-draw

Here are the ones that did not make the cut, and literally did not receive any votes whatsoever. A lot of it has to do with
a) we have a lot of young/prospect depth (some of them are not prospects per se)
b) We've been drafting a lot more (numerically) than in seasons past
c) 2016-2017 drafts were a lot of unknown players and PPP has limited, if any insider knowledge

I think it's perfectly fine that some of the players on this particular list fly under our collective radars. Some of these are probably in the trade bucket (Lindberg). I'm looking forward to seeing where Bobylev, Chebykin, and Kara slot in once we get more eyeballs on them.

 

[herman]

PPP is just dragging this week out with names that didn't make the cut (but got some tail end votes): Dakota Joshua, JJ Piccinich, Trevor Moore. I'm guessing there'll be one more cut tomorrow (Aaltonen? Valiev? Sparks? Rasanen?) as the list is now at 26.

Still eligibles: Adam Brooks Andreas Borgman Andreas Johnsson Andrew Nielsen Auston Matthews Calle Rosen Carl Grundstrom Connor Brown Connor Carrick Dmytro Timashov Eemeli Rasanen Garret Sparks Jeremy Bracco Joseph Woll Josh Leivo Kasperi Kapanen Kerby Rychel Miro Aaltonen Mitch Marner Morgan Rielly Nikita Soshnikov Rinat Valiev Timothy Liljegren Travis Dermott William Nylander Yegor Korshkov

Cut: Dakota Joshua Fedor Gordeev Frederik Gauthier Ian Scott JD Greenway Jesper Lindgren JJ Piccinich Kasmir Kaskisuo Keaton Middleton Martins Dzierkals Nicolas Mattinen Nikolai Chebykin Nolan Vesey Pierre Engvall Ryan McGregor Ryan O'Connell Tobias Lindberg Trevor Moore Vladimir Boblyev Vladislav Kara

 

[Coco-puffs]

Out of that list, the name that sticks out as never going to reach beyond his current standing is Valiev, who is at this point probably an average AHL defenseman and with other options available, I don't see him sniffing the NHL again through Toronto. 

Everyone else on the list probably can still sniff the NHL (if they aren't already there), even though I doubt more than 5 of the players listed below #8 are full-time NHLers during their career.  (Some others will get call-ups, but will not be everyday players.  Some of the wingers probably won't get a sniff of the Maple Leafs, but on teams with less winger depth they may see it down the road)

Anyways, my ranking:

Auston Matthews
William Nylander
Mitch Marner
Morgan Rielly
Timothy Liljegren
Kasperi Kapanen
Connor Brown
Connor Carrick
Carl Grundstrom
Travis Dermott
Adam Brooks
Josh Leivo
Andreas Borgman
Miro Aaltonen
Nikita Soshnikov
Jeremy Bracco
Joseph Woll
Kerby Rychel
Calle Rosen
Andreas Johnsson
Andrew Nielsen
Garret Sparks
Yegor Korshkov
Eemeli Rasanen
Dmytro Timashov

 

[Zee]

Out of that list, the name that sticks out as never going to reach beyond his current standing is Valiev, who is at this point probably an average AHL defenseman and with other options available, I don't see him sniffing the NHL again through Toronto. 

Everyone else on the list probably can still sniff the NHL (if they aren't already there), even though I doubt more than 5 of the players listed below #8 are full-time NHLers during their career.  (Some others will get call-ups, but will not be everyday players.  Some of the wingers probably won't get a sniff of the Maple Leafs, but on teams with less winger depth they may see it down the road)

Anyways, my ranking:

Auston Matthews
William Nylander
Mitch Marner
Morgan Rielly
Timothy Liljegren
Kasperi Kapanen
Connor Brown
Connor Carrick
Carl Grundstrom
Travis Dermott
Adam Brooks
Josh Leivo
Andreas Borgman
Miro Aaltonen
Nikita Soshnikov
Jeremy Bracco
Joseph Woll
Kerby Rychel
Calle Rosen
Andreas Johnsson
Andrew Nielsen
Garret Sparks
Yegor Korshkov
Eemeli Rasanen
Dmytro Timashov

Are you saying Liljegren should make the team this season?

 

[Coco-puffs]

Out of that list, the name that sticks out as never going to reach beyond his current standing is Valiev, who is at this point probably an average AHL defenseman and with other options available, I don't see him sniffing the NHL again through Toronto. 

Everyone else on the list probably can still sniff the NHL (if they aren't already there), even though I doubt more than 5 of the players listed below #8 are full-time NHLers during their career.  (Some others will get call-ups, but will not be everyday players.  Some of the wingers probably won't get a sniff of the Maple Leafs, but on teams with less winger depth they may see it down the road)

Anyways, my ranking:

Auston Matthews
William Nylander
Mitch Marner
Morgan Rielly
Timothy Liljegren
Kasperi Kapanen
Connor Brown
Connor Carrick
Carl Grundstrom
Travis Dermott
Adam Brooks
Josh Leivo
Andreas Borgman
Miro Aaltonen
Nikita Soshnikov
Jeremy Bracco
Joseph Woll
Kerby Rychel
Calle Rosen
Andreas Johnsson
Andrew Nielsen
Garret Sparks
Yegor Korshkov
Eemeli Rasanen
Dmytro Timashov

Are you saying Liljegren should make the team this season?

Nope.  The list is not a ranking of each player as they sit exactly today, but a ranking of them as prospects (even if they are already in the NHL) including their progression towards their potential.  Hence, two years ago William Nylander was ranked #2 ahead of Gardiner and Kadri but he wasn't yet NHL ready. 

Similarily, while Connor Brown is a better player than Kapanen today, Kapanen still has time to take one or two big steps in his development while Connor Brown has reached the incremental stages of his development (room for small improvements, but most of his development is done by this age).  Hence I have Kapanen higher than him.

 

[herman]

Out of that list, the name that sticks out as never going to reach beyond his current standing is Valiev, who is at this point probably an average AHL defenseman and with other options available, I don't see him sniffing the NHL again through Toronto. 

I agree.

Anyways, my ranking:

Auston Matthews
William Nylander
Mitch Marner
Morgan Rielly
Timothy Liljegren
Kasperi Kapanen
Connor Brown
Connor Carrick
Carl Grundstrom
Travis Dermott
Adam Brooks
Josh Leivo
Andreas Borgman
Miro Aaltonen
Nikita Soshnikov
Jeremy Bracco
Joseph Woll
Kerby Rychel
Calle Rosen
Andreas Johnsson
Andrew Nielsen
Garret Sparks
Yegor Korshkov
Eemeli Rasanen
Dmytro Timashov

The top of our list is very similar (not that I've written mine down or anything). In the middle and bottom, I have Timashov, Johnsson, Korshkov in the middle, and Soshnikov, Aaltonen, Rychel towards the bottom. I think my rankings tend towards top-9 viability, rather than just NHL-ing. So someone like Rychel and Soshnikov have a really good likelihood of sticking on a fourth line due to play style, whereas Timashov and Johnsson really have to push for a line with scoring opportunities and might be less likely to make it.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Out of that list, the name that sticks out as never going to reach beyond his current standing is Valiev, who is at this point probably an average AHL defenseman and with other options available, I don't see him sniffing the NHL again through Toronto. 

I agree.

Anyways, my ranking:

Auston Matthews
William Nylander
Mitch Marner
Morgan Rielly
Timothy Liljegren
Kasperi Kapanen
Connor Brown
Connor Carrick
Carl Grundstrom
Travis Dermott
Adam Brooks
Josh Leivo
Andreas Borgman
Miro Aaltonen
Nikita Soshnikov
Jeremy Bracco
Joseph Woll
Kerby Rychel
Calle Rosen
Andreas Johnsson
Andrew Nielsen
Garret Sparks
Yegor Korshkov
Eemeli Rasanen
Dmytro Timashov

The top of our list is very similar (not that I've written mine down or anything). In the middle and bottom, I have Timashov, Johnsson, Korshkov in the middle, and Soshnikov, Aaltonen, Rychel towards the bottom. I think my rankings tend towards top-9 viability, rather than just NHL-ing. So someone like Rychel and Soshnikov have a really good likelihood of sticking on a fourth line due to play style, whereas Timashov and Johnsson really have to push for a line with scoring opportunities and might be less likely to make it.

Yeah, our philosiphies on where to place 4th line territory but closer to NHL vs Top 9 territory but unlikely to make it is a bit different.  But on some of the players you mentioned I don't see them the same way as you:

Soshnikov - He's already a 4th line player if he can stay healthy (aside from us having too much winger depth).  The question is, can he be the 8th or 9th forward in your top 9 doing grunt work (like Komarov/Hyman).  His potential is still above a 4th liner.  For that reason, I find it difficult to put a player who has a low probability of making it ahead of him. 

Timashov - I like his skill alot.  But I think the probability of him making it is quite low.  Probably lower than your outlook.  I do hope I'm wrong.

Aaltonen - I don't see him as a 4th line ceiling type of player.  I do think he has much more offensive skill / speed that he could fill in in a sheltered scoring role (ie Bozak's spot in the lineup).  I do think they signed him specifically to be able to call up a center who can actually provide some scoring should injuries mount.  Our skilled center depth basically goes Matthews - Kadri - Bozak - Nylander - Aaltonen - Brooks. 

Rychel - I don't think his ceiling is just as a 4th liner.  Much of what I said about Sosh applies, but I do think he's a step behind Sosh in terms of attaining it hence he's a few spots lower.

 

[herman]

Yeah, our philosiphies on where to place 4th line territory but closer to NHL vs Top 9 territory but unlikely to make it is a bit different.  But on some of the players you mentioned I don't see them the same way as you:

Our difference of opinion might also have to do with preferred playstyles too. It's fun to discuss!

Soshnikov - He's already a 4th line player if he can stay healthy (aside from us having too much winger depth).  The question is, can he be the 8th or 9th forward in your top 9 doing grunt work (like Komarov/Hyman).  His potential is still above a 4th liner.  For that reason, I find it difficult to put a player who has a low probability of making it ahead of him. 

Sosh is great for PK and stirring poop emojis. What I don't really like about his game is his lack of ability to generate or complement. What he does instead is shoot, shoot, shoot, from any and everywhere. It's a good shot, but unless he's willing to take the puck into better spots than the blue line or half wall, we have better options.

Timashov - I like his skill alot.  But I think the probability of him making it is quite low.  Probably lower than your outlook.  I do hope I'm wrong.

Speaking of better options: I really like Timashov's puck patience. He also has crazy strength for his size (like Kulemin, but with hands). I'm looking for a breakout season from him this year as he got squashed in the crush of wingers these past two years. It's really too bad Nylander didn't get much of a go at his last WJ, because he and Timashov had some magic zip going.

Aaltonen - I don't see him as a 4th line ceiling type of player.  I do think he has much more offensive skill / speed that he could fill in in a sheltered scoring role (ie Bozak's spot in the lineup).  I do think they signed him specifically to be able to call up a center who can actually provide some scoring should injuries mount.  Our skilled center depth basically goes Matthews - Kadri - Bozak - Nylander - Aaltonen - Brooks. 

I haven't seen enough of him to truly comment, but I agree with you as his numbers look like he would be very adequate call up depth in an area of weakness for the Leafs.

Rychel - I don't think his ceiling is just as a 4th liner.  Much of what I said about Sosh applies, but I do think he's a step behind Sosh in terms of attaining it hence he's a few spots lower.

I see Rychel as plug-in depth, 4th line if his defensive game steps up a bit. His wheels are not optimal for the way our team plays, whereas Korshkov and Johnsson both have a lot of get-up-and-go. Johnsson in particular has been a defensive standout for the Marlies (according to Justin Bourne).

 

[Nik]

Korshkov - I'm not entirely sure he exists.

 

[herman]

Korshkov - I'm not entirely sure he exists.

I saw a video of him!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYgcUDillVM
but Photoshop is so powerful these days.

 

[Nik]

Korshkov - I'm not entirely sure he exists.

I saw a video of him!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYgcUDillVM
but Photoshop is so powerful these days.

Don't you mean:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJjUt2sXo5o

 

[herman]

Don't you mean:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJjUt2sXo5o

Isn't that Vladislav Kara?

 

[Nik]

Isn't that Vladislav Kara?

Fun fact: Vladislav Kara is "Doctor Griffin" loosely translated into Russian.

 

[herman]

Isn't that Vladislav Kara?

Fun fact: Vladislav Kara is "Doctor Griffin" loosely translated into Russian.

Oh this is his video then: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpkX-5VXWQs

 

[herman]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHQEyX4vGnI

Liljegren and Woll were in action today for a WJSS match.
Woll played the first half and ceded the net with 1 GA on 13 shots.
Liljegren had a goal and an assist.

There was also this gaffe early on in the game where Liljegren keeps the gap on his man, but takes out his defense partner in the process for an open shot and goal against:
https://twitter.com/TheDraftAnalyst/status/891401247902900224
www.twitter.com/TheDraftAnalyst/status/891401247902900224

 

[herman]

25. Rinat Valiev

And Valiev makes the cut! I see him as injury replacement at best. He looked pretty good at times last last season (he can skate, hold the puck, shoot for rebounds), but his consistency took a hit this past season (injuries contributed, but so did getting obviously outplayed by Dermott).

 

[Bullfrog]

Also 25. Joseph Woll

Our first goaltender on the list is one of our most punnable prospects, and was getting scored on by Auston Matthews before it was cool. Joseph Woll was the first goalie drafted by the Toronto Maple Leafs since Antoine Bibeau in 2013

 

[herman]

whaaaaaaattttt....