Ranking Prospects - 2017-18

[herman]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Liljegren in the top-5, just behind Rielly. I think he'll definitely be ahead of Carrick and Dermott.

Long-run, certainly. I was making the list trying to predict the PPP rankings, rather than my own estimations.

From past PPP votings, there's a pretty heavy contingent of achievement voters, rather than the nebulous ceiling projection voters. Dermott got some shoutouts by his coaches at the end of the season and Mirtle-murmurs about him being ready for the big show. Back in 2015, Marner finished 5th and Nylander finished 2nd, even though they were both already clearly dominant in their respective leagues (Rielly took #1, Gardiner #3, and Kadri #4).

I think Carrick's NHL time and gaudy analytics numbers (and smart media presence) gives him the leg up this season.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Long-run, certainly. I was making the list trying to predict the PPP rankings, rather than my own estimations.

From past PPP votings, there's a pretty heavy contingent of achievement voters, rather than the nebulous ceiling projection voters. Dermott got some shoutouts by his coaches at the end of the season and Mirtle-murmurs about him being ready for the big show. Back in 2015, Marner finished 5th and Nylander finished 2nd, even though they were both already clearly dominant in their respective leagues (Rielly took #1, Gardiner #3, and Kadri #4).

I think Carrick's NHL time and gaudy analytics numbers (and smart media presence) gives him the leg up this season.

Rielly, Gardiner, and Kadri were all established NHLers at that point. That's what gave them the edge over Marner and Nylander even though those two had the highest ceiling. Kapanen and Dermott are still technically prospects at this point, so they're basically being judged on potential and Liljegren's surpasses them both there. Carrick's an NHLer yes, but I don't think a #5 defenceman (with potentially some room to grow) is going to go ahead of someone with Liljegren's pedigree. I could maybe see Brown's rookie season being enough to keep him ahead of Timmy in some people's eyes for now.

 

[herman]

Rielly, Gardiner, and Kadri were all established NHLers at that point. That's what gave them the edge over Marner and Nylander even though those two had the highest ceiling. Kapanen and Dermott are still technically prospects at this point, so they're basically being judged on potential and Liljegren's surpasses them both there. Carrick's an NHLer yes, but I don't think a #5 defenceman (with potentially some room to grow) is going to go ahead of someone with Liljegren's pedigree. I could maybe see Brown's rookie season being enough to keep him ahead of Timmy in some people's eyes for now.

If you're right, then the votings rigged! Fire and fury will be visited upon you, and it'll be the best fire and fury you've ever seen. The best. I know a guy, he's a good friend. A great friend. Best fire ever, like you wouldn't believe. I said to him, I said, hey, would know what would be great? Fire, YUGE fire, like across the sky and hitting these... these wagon things, right? And they'd go boom, Boom, BOOM! All in a row. That's gotta be a world record right? Just like how many people showed up to my birthday party. So many people! The best people.

Anyway. You make a compelling case. Liljegren's got some obvious warts holding him back, but I'm of the mind that some of them have to do with playing on Rogle, where he feels like he has to do more and his teammates aren't always keeping up with his pace and plays.

 

[herman]

17. Calle Rosen

I haven't read the article yet. Rated under Borgman due to age? He's a fantastic skater and that really covers up a great many ills.

 

[herman]

16. Andreas Borgman

 

[Bullfrog]

So, it's:

Callay Roseean
and
Andreas Bor-ye-man?

 

[herman]

15. Adam Brooks

Would be very interested in seeing a skill-driven 4th line that pushes the pace, and Brooks would be of the mould I see at centre.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

ESPN's Corey Pronman ranked our prospect pool 13th in the league in his annual team rankings (we were ranked 1st last year):

13. Toronto Maple Leafs
Previous rank: 1

The Leafs' system is much different from a year ago, with star talents like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander having graduated. The system remains good, with high-end talents on forward and defense, but the Leafs don't have a premium prospect anymore, just a lot of good ones.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/20340430/nhl-ranking-prospect-pipelines-all-31-teams-heading-2017-18-season (pay wall'd)

Seems like a fair spot to be in considering who just graduated.

 

[herman]

14. Nikita Soshnikov

I think he's a bit too high on the list, but right around the mark I expected him to be based on PPP's general voting tendancies.

 

[herman]

ESPN's Corey Pronman ranked our prospect pool 13th in the league in his annual team rankings (we were ranked 1st last year):

13. Toronto Maple Leafs
Previous rank: 1

The Leafs' system is much different from a year ago, with star talents like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander having graduated. The system remains good, with high-end talents on forward and defense, but the Leafs don't have a premium prospect anymore, just a lot of good ones.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/20340430/nhl-ranking-prospect-pipelines-all-31-teams-heading-2017-18-season (pay wall'd)

Seems like a fair spot to be in considering who just graduated.

Pronman's pretty strict about ranking these by prospect pipeline only. I wonder where we'd slot in a U24 ranking (probably top 3?).

 

[herman]

PPP: 13. Jeremy Bracco

If Bracco flames out, it's no big deal as we have Marner and Nylander (and Brown) locking down RW for a good long while. If Bracco torches the AHL, then you have Marner - Brown - Bracco with Nylander in the middle.

TLN: 20. Nikolai Chebykin

We've got time.

 

[Bender]

I'm really apprehensive about getting up on Bracco. I don't know if he'll really be anything even at the AHL level.

 

[Coco-puffs]

PPP: 13. Jeremy Bracco

If Bracco flames out, it's no big deal as we have Marner and Nylander (and Brown) locking down RW for a good long while. If Bracco torches the AHL, then you have Marner - Brown - Bracco with Nylander in the middle.

TLN: 20. Nikolai Chebykin

We've got time.

You don't see Kapanen in the Top 9 on the Right Side long term?

My lineup *next year* would look like this using only players under contract/RFA's : (with Martin there only because I don't see him being taken out of the lineup)

Marleau - Matthews - Marner
?1 - Nylander - Kapanen
Hyman - Kadri - Brown
Martin - ?2 - Soshnikov

?1 - Most likely candidates:  Leivo, Brooks, Johnson, Grundstrom
?2 - Most likely candidates:  Brooks, Free Agent, Gauthier

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm really apprehensive about getting up on Bracco. I don't know if he'll really be anything even at the AHL level.

I'm giving Bracco (and Brooks) the Connor Brown treatment: I'm not getting excited about them until they show they can produce at the AHL level.

 

[herman]

You don't see Kapanen in the Top 9 on the Right Side long term?

I forgot about him actually :-[ We could squeeze him in on the left side occasionally, but he's probably supplanting Brown in the next two years if neither are traded before then.

 

[Coco-puffs]

You don't see Kapanen in the Top 9 on the Right Side long term?

I forgot about him actually :-[ We could squeeze him in on the left side occasionally, but he's probably supplanting Brown in the next two years if neither are traded before then.

Well, between the two of them it will be interesting to see who gets the more offensive role and who gets the more defensive role.  Kapanen hasn't proven yet what he'll be at the NHL level- will he be better on a sheltered scoring line or on the Kadri unit as a checking winger.

While my lineup above doesn't reflect it, I do wonder if Marner on Kadri's wing would work really well.  He's a puck thief and with some more work/experience could become more than just an offensive star.  Then we could ice a lineup more like this, where there is one of our big three on each line- the first two lines get the tougher matchups and it frees Nylander to be a huge weapon on the sheltered scoring line:

Marleau - Matthews - Brown/Kapanen
Hyman/Grundstrom - Kadri - Marner
Leivo/Hyman/Grundstrom - Nylander - Kapanen/Brown

 

[herman]

Well, between the two of them it will be interesting to see who gets the more offensive role and who gets the more defensive role.  Kapanen hasn't proven yet what he'll be at the NHL level- will he be better on a sheltered scoring line or on the Kadri unit as a checking winger.

While my lineup above doesn't reflect it, I do wonder if Marner on Kadri's wing would work really well.  He's a puck thief and with some more work/experience could become more than just an offensive star.  Then we could ice a lineup more like this, where there is one of our big three on each line- the first two lines get the tougher matchups and it frees Nylander to be a huge weapon on the sheltered scoring line:

Marleau - Matthews - Brown/Kapanen
Hyman/Grundstrom - Kadri - Marner
Leivo/Hyman/Grundstrom - Nylander - Kapanen/Brown

I think that's where I'd take it too. Kapanen and Brown are pretty defensively/offensively flexible. Having similar on the left would be great, but we're lacking there.

I've always liked the idea of Marner on Kadri's wing (Knights!) to smear out the big three talent across the top 9, but I think there's a better fit longer term on Matthews' wing due to his propensity for shooting. We know Marner works very well with big shooting left shot centres.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Well, between the two of them it will be interesting to see who gets the more offensive role and who gets the more defensive role.  Kapanen hasn't proven yet what he'll be at the NHL level- will he be better on a sheltered scoring line or on the Kadri unit as a checking winger.

While my lineup above doesn't reflect it, I do wonder if Marner on Kadri's wing would work really well.  He's a puck thief and with some more work/experience could become more than just an offensive star.  Then we could ice a lineup more like this, where there is one of our big three on each line- the first two lines get the tougher matchups and it frees Nylander to be a huge weapon on the sheltered scoring line:

Marleau - Matthews - Brown/Kapanen
Hyman/Grundstrom - Kadri - Marner
Leivo/Hyman/Grundstrom - Nylander - Kapanen/Brown

I think that's where I'd take it too. Kapanen and Brown are pretty defensively/offensively flexible. Having similar on the left would be great, but we're lacking there.

I've always liked the idea of Marner on Kadri's wing (Knights!) to smear out the big three talent across the top 9, but I think there's a better fit longer term on Matthews' wing due to his propensity for shooting. We know Marner works very well with big shooting left shot centres.

I was hoping the Leafs would re-sign JVR and leave him as Marner's LWer.

When Komarov retires/gets traded I was thinking that Grundstrom would replace him.

Thinking that if Nylander is competent as a center at all then it will be Bozak removed.

So I was thinking the next couple of years would be:

Marleau / Matthews / Kapanen

JVR / Nylander / Marner

Komarov(Grundstrom) / Kadri / Brown

Martin / 4th line C / Hyman

 

[herman]

I don't think JvR makes much sense on a team that has to pay the Big Three at around the same time. He's approaching diminishing returns, but at a big UFA cap hit.

If Komarov, JvR, and Bozak are gone this season, I'd run the lines in similar fashion to now (role-wise).

Primary scoring: Marleau - Matthews - Marner
Matchup shutdown: Hyman - Kadri - Brown
Secondary scoring: Johnsson - Nylander - Kapanen
Low-event shutdown: Martin - Moore - Leivo
Spare: Soshnikov

Grundstrom isn't likely to play in the AHL this season until the SHL season is finished.

 

[Kin]

I don't think JvR makes much sense on a team that has to pay the Big Three at around the same time. He's approaching diminishing returns, but at a big UFA cap hit.

And there's really no getting around the fact that the cap makes it a zero-sum game. Any money spent on JVR is, necessarily, money you can't spend on the blue line or extensions.