Ranking Prospects - 2017-18

[herman]

PPP: 12. Carl Grundstrom

Similar template to Zach Hyman in that he's a straight line skater that relishes in playing the wrecking ball role and chipping in goals from Gary Roberts' office. Needs to build up strength to match his frame and style, and more experience to develop his hockey awareness. Has a nose for the puck and net but can't carry, extend, or generate plays on his own

TLN: 19. Vladimir Bobylev/Bobylyov

We've got time.

 

[Bullfrog]

Seems more Kulemin-esque than Hyman.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I don't think JvR makes much sense on a team that has to pay the Big Three at around the same time. He's approaching diminishing returns, but at a big UFA cap hit.

If Komarov, JvR, and Bozak are gone this season, I'd run the lines in similar fashion to now (role-wise).

Primary scoring: Marleau - Matthews - Marner
Matchup shutdown: Hyman - Kadri - Brown
Secondary scoring: Johnsson - Nylander - Kapanen
Low-event shutdown: Martin - Moore - Leivo
Spare: Soshnikov

Grundstrom isn't likely to play in the AHL this season until the SHL season is finished.

Grundstrom signed his ELC in April, using his exit clause in his contract with Frolunda.  He's a Marlie next season.  He's not returning to the SHL unless the Leafs loan him there which I guess could be a possibility if they feel they have too many wingers in the AHL and want to make sure they get enough icetime- but I doubt it.

 

[herman]

Grundstrom signed his ELC in April, using his exit clause in his contract with Frolunda.  He's a Marlie next season.  He's not returning to the SHL unless the Leafs loan him there which I guess could be a possibility if they feel they have too many wingers in the AHL and want to make sure they get enough icetime- but I doubt it.

I was basing this on Grundstrom staying back in Sweden for Frolunda's training camp and preseason, instead of attending the Leaf's development camp. I think he is being loaned. r/leafs also mentioned an unwritten agreement between teams and the SHL that Swedish prospects under 20 and not 1st rounders will stay in the SHL until they make the jump. The ELC doesn't indicate where the player will play (see Johnsson).

 

[herman]

Seems more Kulemin-esque than Hyman.

Kulemin is who I hope Hyman to become.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Grundstrom signed his ELC in April, using his exit clause in his contract with Frolunda.  He's a Marlie next season.  He's not returning to the SHL unless the Leafs loan him there which I guess could be a possibility if they feel they have too many wingers in the AHL and want to make sure they get enough icetime- but I doubt it.

I was basing this on Grundstrom staying back in Sweden for Frolunda's training camp and preseason, instead of attending the Leaf's development camp. I think he is being loaned. r/leafs also mentioned an unwritten agreement between teams and the SHL that Swedish prospects under 20 and not 1st rounders will stay in the SHL until they make the jump. The ELC doesn't indicate where the player will play (see Johnsson).

Ah, I was unaware that he was attending Frolunda's training camp instead of development/main camp here. Figured they would want to see how he does on the Marlies, but as I pointed out before, so many wingers in the org. means either him or someone else would be taking minutes on the Marlies from each other so it makes sense to loan him.

 

[herman]

Ah, I was unaware that he was attending Frolunda's training camp instead of development/main camp here. Figured they would want to see how he does on the Marlies, but as I pointed out before, so many wingers in the org. means either him or someone else would be taking minutes on the Marlies from each other so it makes sense to loan him.

I'd much rather him be here, but I would also like to have Timashov, Moore, and Johnsson get some prime minutes too, so while we have time and it makes sense, might as well use it. Frolunda expects to be good this year so that probably helps things along.

Liljegren on the other hand... Rogle seems resigned that he will be in Toronto. I think this is the right move, especially for defense, where the rink dimensions and deflection angles are going to be critical on the backend and takes extra time to adjust. Grundstrom has already proven he can adapt to AHL ice, and already plays the North American style, so let's see how he contributes to his team's success.

 

[Bender]

Seems more Kulemin-esque than Hyman.

Kulemin is who I hope Hyman to become.

Yeah but preferably more the 50pt Kulemin, not the 20pt middling Kulemin (which Hyman already is).

 

[herman]

Seems more Kulemin-esque than Hyman.

Kulemin is who I hope Hyman to become.

Yeah but preferably more the 50pt Kulemin, not the 20pt middling Kulemin (which Hyman already is).

50 pt Kulemin is not a real thing though, as he was riding a massive shooting percentage (17.3%). Hyman was at 6.4% last season, which is also unsustainably low. Really, Hyman's only shooting issue was he got too close to the net. If Hyman continues to play Matthews' wing and bounces back to around 9% shooting, we're looking at just about 15 goals, which is better than regular Kulemin.

 

[Bender]

Seems more Kulemin-esque than Hyman.

Kulemin is who I hope Hyman to become.

Yeah but preferably more the 50pt Kulemin, not the 20pt middling Kulemin (which Hyman already is).

50 pt Kulemin is not a real thing though, as he was riding a massive shooting percentage (17.3%). Hyman was at 6.4% last season, which is also unsustainably low. Really, Hyman's only shooting issue was he got too close to the net. If Hyman continues to play Matthews' wing and bounces back to around 9% shooting, we're looking at just about 15 goals, which is better than regular Kulemin.

One can dream

 

[herman]

ESPN's Corey Pronman ranked our prospect pool 13th in the league in his annual team rankings (we were ranked 1st last year):

13. Toronto Maple Leafs
Previous rank: 1

The Leafs' system is much different from a year ago, with star talents like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander having graduated. The system remains good, with high-end talents on forward and defense, but the Leafs don't have a premium prospect anymore, just a lot of good ones.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/20340430/nhl-ranking-prospect-pipelines-all-31-teams-heading-2017-18-season (pay wall'd)

Seems like a fair spot to be in considering who just graduated.

Pronman's top 100 prospects is out and the Leafs' kids rank:
40. Kasperi Kapanen
43. Timothy Liljegren
73. Travis Dermott
79. Jeremy Bracco

HM: Grundstrom, Nielsen

Goalies:
7. Joseph Woll

 

[L K]

ESPN's Corey Pronman ranked our prospect pool 13th in the league in his annual team rankings (we were ranked 1st last year):

13. Toronto Maple Leafs
Previous rank: 1

The Leafs' system is much different from a year ago, with star talents like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander having graduated. The system remains good, with high-end talents on forward and defense, but the Leafs don't have a premium prospect anymore, just a lot of good ones.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/20340430/nhl-ranking-prospect-pipelines-all-31-teams-heading-2017-18-season (pay wall'd)

Seems like a fair spot to be in considering who just graduated.

Pronman's top 100 prospects is out and the Leafs' kids rank:
40. Kasperi Kapanen
43. Timothy Liljegren
73. Travis Dermott
79. Jeremy Bracco

HM: Grundstrom, Nielsen

Goalies:
7. Joseph Woll

Seems fair.  I still struggle with the concept that a prospect has graduated the second they become an NHL regular.  A guy who is 24 in the AHL carries better prospect value than a 19 year old with a year of NHL experience.  Doesn't make a lot of sense to me. 

 

[Frank E]

Anyone think the Matt Gilroy comparisons to Butcher should make teams nervous?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Anyone think the Matt Gilroy comparisons to Butcher should make teams nervous?

No NCAA signing like this is ever going to be a slam dunk, but in Butcher's defence he is 2.5 years younger than Gilroy was when he went pro.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Butcher is a found wallet, best case he has a career ala Bozak, worst case he gets Christian Hansen'd down the line.

 

[Frank E]

Butcher is a found wallet, best case he has a career ala Bozak, worst case he gets Christian Hansen'd down the line.

High five for the Hansen reference...totally forgot about that guy.

 

[Kin]

50 pt Kulemin is not a real thing though, as he was riding a massive shooting percentage (17.3%). Hyman was at 6.4% last season, which is also unsustainably low. Really, Hyman's only shooting issue was he got too close to the net. If Hyman continues to play Matthews' wing and bounces back to around 9% shooting, we're looking at just about 15 goals, which is better than regular Kulemin.

I wouldn't necessarily assume that though. I've read that with shooting percentages you should assume a regression to an individual mean rather than a league-wide one. Until we see evidence that Hyman can score at a reasonable rate we shouldn't bet on it happening.

 

[herman]

50 pt Kulemin is not a real thing though, as he was riding a massive shooting percentage (17.3%). Hyman was at 6.4% last season, which is also unsustainably low. Really, Hyman's only shooting issue was he got too close to the net. If Hyman continues to play Matthews' wing and bounces back to around 9% shooting, we're looking at just about 15 goals, which is better than regular Kulemin.

I wouldn't necessarily assume that though. I've read that with shooting percentages you should assume a regression to an individual mean rather than a league-wide one. Until we see evidence that Hyman can score at a reasonable rate we shouldn't bet on it happening.

He was 10.8% on a garbage team when he debuted alongside Nylander in 2016, 22 goals in his senior year with Michigan. You're right that it's not guaranteed that Hyman can score in the NHL at a reasonable rate; however, he's shown some shooting skill when he's not playing deferentially. The primary difference between last season and his cup of coffee the year before was the competition faced and how close to the net he was making his attempts.

2016: 16 GP, 4 goals, 10.8%

2016-17: 82 GP, 10 goals, 6.4%

Competition-wise, alongside Matthews and a lot of Nylander, Hyman still generated a crap-ton of chances. If he's moved off that line and suddenly doesn't generate chances, then I'd be more concerned, but I don't think that'll be the case.

 

[herman]

PPP: 11. Andreas Johnsson

i.e. Liljegren is in the top 10!

I really like Johnsson's game. He's not the biggest, but he works hard, and scores like crazy. Originally, he appeared to be a boom-or-bust option as a PP specialist. With the Marlies, his defense has improved by leaps and bounds, to complement his instinct for finding space in the slot and ripping shots home.

TLN: 18. Jesper Lindgren

 

[Bullfrog]

;D

He?s since addressed his asthma with medication, and he?s addressed his height by being a good hockey player in the 21st century.

I have no idea why, but I'm really enamoured with Johnsson. Of all the prospects, he's the highest on my list of ones that I really want to see make it. I know the odds are against him given his age, but he's also the same age Bozak was when he made his NHL debut and he's done well.