Ranking Prospects - 2017-18

[Coco-puffs]

I just realized that Leivo went ahead of Dermott. That's pretty questionable.

As herman said, PPP tends to vote more with what they know.  Had they gone more with realistic upside, you'd have Dermott ahead of Leivo for sure and Liljegren ahead of Kapanen and Brown.  Which is how I ranked them.

Well what made it particularly surprising was how low he was on previous lists. In 2015 he was 15th, and last year he dropped all the way back to 18th (behind younger guys like Bracco, Timashov, Johnsson who all have a higher upside). And I don't really think much has changed in regards to his status in the past few years other than his age. He's not really much closer to a full time NHL job than he was 2 years ago.

Yeah, seems that everyone was a bit too impressed with his 10 pts in 13 games last year.  Here's my take on that:  After not playing most of the season, when he got his chances he was running on adrenaline.  Problem is, once that adrenaline rubs off in a full-time NHL role, his main deficiency (skating) would probably prevent him from being 10pts/13gms effective over the long term. 

Leafs are just way too loaded on wing- saying he's no closer to a full time NHL gig is only true because the Leafs improved markedly over that time span.  IMO, on about half of the teams in the league, he'd have a 3rd line winger job in the NHL today.  I'd still rate him higher than the three you mentioned- while they have upside that probably puts them closer to 2nd line winger territory, they are MUCH farther from the NHL (except for maybe Johnsson)

 

[Frank E]

I just realized that Leivo went ahead of Dermott. That's pretty questionable.

The Leivo situation is just weird.  I understood the Corrado thing, because that guy was barely an NHLer.

I understand the Leafs hardly had any injuries last season, and that's bound to readjust this season, so maybe that's what they're banking on doing with Leivo.

 

[herman]

All this talk about having too many wingers and here we are playing Matt Martin 82 games at 2.5M with 3 more seasons to go, and we lose out on potential assets in Holland, Griffith, Leipsic, and probably Leivo and Rychel. They might all be fringe players, but are they all worse than who is plugging up a spot in the lineup and the extra 1-1.5M to spend?

 

[Coco-puffs]

All this talk about having too many wingers and here we are playing Matt Martin 82 games at 2.5M with 3 more seasons to go, and we lose out on potential assets in Holland, Griffith, Leipsic, and probably Leivo and Rychel. They might all be fringe players, but are they all worse than who is plugging up a spot in the lineup and the extra 1-1.5M to spend?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAUY1J8KizU

 

[herman]

PPP: 6. Connor Brown

TLN: 13. Calle Rosen

Ca-li Ro-say-en is apparently the best skater ever.

 

[Bender]

PPP: 6. Connor Brown

Wonder how he'll do if given more opportunities. I feel like he's had to claw his way to get to where he is now, I'd like to see him crack 45pts.

 

[herman]

Wonder how he'll do if given more opportunities. I feel like he's had to claw his way to get to where he is now, I'd like to see him crack 45pts.

What more opportunity can you give him outside of a Marner/Nylander injury at this point? In order to crack 45 pts, he needs to play opposite someone other than Komarov and less defensive minutes. I don't mind keeping his numbers and $ suppressed. A JvR/Bozak/Komarov trade doesn't really open space for Brown, other than maybe slotting Nylander into the secondary scoring line.

Absent those three, #5 on this list, Kapanen, rises to greater prominence too and fulfills a similar niche to Brown. Brown/Hyman are really good utility pieces (and good pros) for our roster in that they can play up and down the lineup, but they're also the types of players general managers in the past have hamstrung their teams with after successful (post)seasons with loyalty contracts. We're re-upping them at the right time.

Brown is Kunitz/Cheechoo. He's got the skill and speed to keep up with the line drivers and complement them with scoring, but he can't do it on his own. Perfectly fine depth, and a steal of a pick from the 6th round, but ultimately expendable when the time comes.

 

[Frank E]

Wonder how he'll do if given more opportunities. I feel like he's had to claw his way to get to where he is now, I'd like to see him crack 45pts.

What more opportunity can you give him outside of a Marner/Nylander injury at this point? In order to crack 45 pts, he needs to play opposite someone other than Komarov and less defensive minutes. I don't mind keeping his numbers and $ suppressed. A JvR/Bozak/Komarov trade doesn't really open space for Brown, other than maybe slotting Nylander into the secondary scoring line.

Absent those three, #5 on this list, Kapanen, rises to greater prominence too and fulfills a similar niche to Brown. Brown/Hyman are really good utility pieces (and good pros) for our roster in that they can play up and down the lineup, but they're also the types of players general managers in the past have hamstrung their teams with after successful (post)seasons with loyalty contracts. We're re-upping them at the right time.

Brown is Kunitz/Cheechoo. He's got the skill and speed to keep up with the line drivers and complement them with scoring, but he can't do it on his own. Perfectly fine depth, and a steal of a pick from the 6th round, but ultimately expendable when the time comes.

I think that Connor Brown's production given his limited ice time was pretty remarkable. 

EVTOI/game - 17th
SHTOI/game - 8th
PPTOI/game - 12th

Given that, he was 4th on the team in even strength goals:

1.  Matthews - 32
2.  JVR - 23
3.  Kadri - 20
4.  Brown - 17
5.  Marner - 15
6.  Nylander - 13

Kunitz had 9 last season.

I get that his shooting % might be unsustainable, but I think his ice-time was pretty low given his production and PK responsibilities. 

 

[herman]

All this talk about having too many wingers and here we are playing Matt Martin 82 games at 2.5M with 3 more seasons to go, and we lose out on potential assets in Holland, Griffith, Leipsic, and probably Leivo and Rychel. They might all be fringe players, but are they all worse than who is plugging up a spot in the lineup and the extra 1-1.5M to spend?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAUY1J8KizU

https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/6vyryt/the_matt_martin_debate/

Just wanted to say that I had no involvement in this.

 

[herman]

I think that Connor Brown's production given his limited ice time was pretty remarkable. 

EVTOI/game - 17th
SHTOI/game - 8th
PPTOI/game - 12th

Given that, he was 4th on the team in even strength goals:

1.  Matthews - 32
2.  JVR - 23
3.  Kadri - 20
4.  Brown - 17
5.  Marner - 15
6.  Nylander - 13

Kunitz had 9 last season.

I get that his shooting % might be unsustainable, but I think his ice-time was pretty low given his production and PK responsibilities.

Yeah it was one of the those rookie seasons we'd normally be over the moon about, except Nylander, Marner, and Matthews happened at the same time (and largely fueled Brown's performance).

Brown had 29 EV pts.

Line	EV Pts	TOI%
Kadri	11	41.81%
Matthews	13	33.76%
Bozak	3	6.86%
4th	2	4.88%

Source: hockey-reference, leftwinglock

 

[Frank E]

I think that Connor Brown's production given his limited ice time was pretty remarkable. 

EVTOI/game - 17th
SHTOI/game - 8th
PPTOI/game - 12th

Given that, he was 4th on the team in even strength goals:

1.  Matthews - 32
2.  JVR - 23
3.  Kadri - 20
4.  Brown - 17
5.  Marner - 15
6.  Nylander - 13

Kunitz had 9 last season.

I get that his shooting % might be unsustainable, but I think his ice-time was pretty low given his production and PK responsibilities.

Yeah it was one of the those rookie seasons we'd normally be over the moon about, except Nylander, Marner, and Matthews happened at the same time (and largely fueled Brown's performance).

Brown had 29 EV pts.

Line	EV Pts	TOI%
Kadri	11	41.81%
Matthews	13	33.76%
Bozak	3	6.86%
4th	2	4.88%

Source: hockey-reference, leftwinglock

And not to get into the whole "quality of competition" measurement debate, but I think it's been established that the Kadri line played the tougher minutes.

 

[herman]

And not to get into the whole "quality of competition" measurement debate, but I think it's been established that the Kadri line played the tougher minutes.

During home games, for the most part, definitely. Away games, Babcock swapped him with Nylander for a stretch to spread the firepower since we couldn't line-match as hard, and then left him with Matthews for a bit mid-season.

Here's his goal/points breakdown by line and home/away:

Line	TOI	EV Pts	EV Gs	HG	AG	HA	AA
Kadri	41.81%	11	6	4	2	5	0
Matthews	33.76%	13	7	1	6	4	2
Bozak	6.86%	3	3	1	2	0	0
4th	4.88%	2	1	1	0	1	0

 

[Redleaf]

I just realized that Leivo went ahead of Dermott. That's pretty questionable.

As herman said, PPP tends to vote more with what they know.  Had they gone more with realistic upside, you'd have Dermott ahead of Leivo for sure and Liljegren ahead of Kapanen and Brown.  Which is how I ranked them.

Well what made it particularly surprising was how low he was on previous lists. In 2015 he was 15th, and last year he dropped all the way back to 18th (behind younger guys like Bracco, Timashov, Johnsson who all have a higher upside). And I don't really think much has changed in regards to his status in the past few years other than his age. He's not really much closer to a full time NHL job than he was 2 years ago.

Yeah, seems that everyone was a bit too impressed with his 10 pts in 13 games last year.  Here's my take on that:  After not playing most of the season, when he got his chances he was running on adrenaline.  Problem is, once that adrenaline rubs off in a full-time NHL role, his main deficiency (skating) would probably prevent him from being 10pts/13gms effective over the long term. 

Leafs are just way too loaded on wing- saying he's no closer to a full time NHL gig is only true because the Leafs improved markedly over that time span.  IMO, on about half of the teams in the league, he'd have a 3rd line winger job in the NHL today.  I'd still rate him higher than the three you mentioned- while they have upside that probably puts them closer to 2nd line winger territory, they are MUCH farther from the NHL (except for maybe Johnsson)

My take on Leivo is this: He deserves to be in the NHL now. He is being told by management he needs to still improve in certain areas of his game (in order to justify keeping him in the AHL). He is an ideal candidate as a replacement for key injuries which hasn't happened yet, but could likely happen this season. The situation has a foul odour to it. Leivo has a right to be upset, but is playing the good soldier, even if its to his detriment.

 

[herman]

Leivo wasn't in the AHL last season except for a conditioning stint.

 

[Redleaf]

Leivo wasn't in the AHL last season except for a conditioning stint.

Well he wasn't in the NHL last year either. At least not getting regular NHL ice time. To me it feels like he's being used more as an insurance policy instead of being treated like a true NHL a player that he is.

 

[herman]

PPP: 5. Kasperi Kapanen

TLN: 12. Looks like they forgot to write this article.

 

[Kin]

PPP: 5. Kasperi Kapanen

My favourite part of that link is the video embed of the all-time worst OT goal call in hockey broadcast history.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

My favourite part of that link is the video embed of the all-time worst OT goal call in hockey broadcast history.

I've always tried to defend Jim Hughson. I get that he doesn't have the excitement in his voice that guys like Bob Cole had, but I always liked that he seemed to be a more knowledgeable option. But that call ended all that. Just awful.

 

[sneakyray]

but guys...come on...I mean...the defenseman did lose his stick.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/LeafsPR/status/902204751055597568
www.twitter.com/LeafsPR/status/902204751055597568

Looks like Korostelev, who doesn't have a contract and whose NHL rights have expired, is still in the fold. Barring an unexpected signing by an NHL team, he will be re-entering the entry draft this coming season.

Also interesting: Carl Grundstrom is on the roster, even though his SHL preseason has started. The SHL season kicks off Sept 16, which is just under a week after this Rookie Tournament (Sept 8-10).