Ranking Prospects - 2017-18
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
Marleau - Matthews - Marner
Komarov - Kadri - Brown
Johnsson - Nylander - Kapanen
Martin - Moore - Hyman
Add whatever Bozak and JVR can bring back in trade return, I suspect you could get a kings ransom if you're willing to accept non-roster prospects/picks, there is also a good chance they can get you a solid top four dman or you can parlay their return into the dman help you want.
Komarov - Kadri - Brown
Johnsson - Nylander - Kapanen
Martin - Moore - Hyman
Add whatever Bozak and JVR can bring back in trade return, I suspect you could get a kings ransom if you're willing to accept non-roster prospects/picks, there is also a good chance they can get you a solid top four dman or you can parlay their return into the dman help you want.
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
Significantly Insignificant said:
Damn autocorrect!
herman
Well-known member
PPP: 10. Travis Dermott
Top ten time!
TLN: 17. Justin Holl
Pulled from the depths by Dubas. Might be a good temporary sub on the bottom pair.
Top ten time!
TLN: 17. Justin Holl
Pulled from the depths by Dubas. Might be a good temporary sub on the bottom pair.
herman
Well-known member
Something that I've been mulling, and it sort of makes sense to bring it up here after two defensive prospects are on tap for today.
The Leafs, sort of knowing they'd have an easier to time with forward depth (and then striking gold with Matthews) have basically ceded backend production deliberately. Other than Liljegren, and maybe Dermott, their defensive drafting and acquisitions have all been about wingspan and mobility.
Structurally, the Leafs (and Marlies) literally do not care about shooting from the blueline, except to generate rebounds and chaos. I've brought it up in game threads for the past year or so, and I'm thinking it is more systematic than just the NHL roster's particular strengths. The defensemen, once set up in the offensive zone, are merely bumpers to keep the puck pressure deep, rotating with the high forwards on auto-pinch runs to tamp down breakout plays.
Shooting percentages fall off a cliff above the circles and it takes a rare, special player to be able to actually put the puck into the net from that far out on a consistent basis. We actually have some of those players in Matthews, Nylander, and Zaitsev (also Neilsen and Liljegren), but they've been strategically pulled off that play. Even one-timers in general have been eschewed for high slot Plinko.
What does this mean for the defense? Player template-wise, the team really only needs to value mobility in transitions (and puck recovery), stickhandling, and gap control instincts. Physically, the team has leaned heavily on taaaaallllll players with long arms and sticks to break up plays and reach pucks first. See Marincin, Neilsen, Middleton, Mattinen, Rasanen, Gordeev, the departed Desrocher.
Scoring from the backend is an afterthought, and since players are paid by counting stats still to a large degree, I think the team is leveraging this for cost management purposes too. We don't need a 8-9M 1D, when we have a committee of 4-6M top 4D. Even if we luck into a point-producing defenseman (Liljegren), we're only going to have one (maybe two) getting prime PP time.
The Leafs, sort of knowing they'd have an easier to time with forward depth (and then striking gold with Matthews) have basically ceded backend production deliberately. Other than Liljegren, and maybe Dermott, their defensive drafting and acquisitions have all been about wingspan and mobility.
Structurally, the Leafs (and Marlies) literally do not care about shooting from the blueline, except to generate rebounds and chaos. I've brought it up in game threads for the past year or so, and I'm thinking it is more systematic than just the NHL roster's particular strengths. The defensemen, once set up in the offensive zone, are merely bumpers to keep the puck pressure deep, rotating with the high forwards on auto-pinch runs to tamp down breakout plays.
Shooting percentages fall off a cliff above the circles and it takes a rare, special player to be able to actually put the puck into the net from that far out on a consistent basis. We actually have some of those players in Matthews, Nylander, and Zaitsev (also Neilsen and Liljegren), but they've been strategically pulled off that play. Even one-timers in general have been eschewed for high slot Plinko.
What does this mean for the defense? Player template-wise, the team really only needs to value mobility in transitions (and puck recovery), stickhandling, and gap control instincts. Physically, the team has leaned heavily on taaaaallllll players with long arms and sticks to break up plays and reach pucks first. See Marincin, Neilsen, Middleton, Mattinen, Rasanen, Gordeev, the departed Desrocher.
Scoring from the backend is an afterthought, and since players are paid by counting stats still to a large degree, I think the team is leveraging this for cost management purposes too. We don't need a 8-9M 1D, when we have a committee of 4-6M top 4D. Even if we luck into a point-producing defenseman (Liljegren), we're only going to have one (maybe two) getting prime PP time.
Kin
Active member
Anyone else think there's sort of a weird level of pressure on Dermott? Not in an immediate sense or pressure to be an all-star or anything but he does represent this management team's first real test of their draft acumen beyond picking in the top 5.
Also when you toss in the decision to trade down for him which yielded some interesting prospects but guys who seem like they'll be weird fits for the actual team and the guys they maybe passed on for him it strikes me like Dermott's actual ability to contribute, even as a bottom pairing guy, might be our first real glimpse in just how the Too Many Cooks era worked out from a scouting/drafting standpoint.
Also when you toss in the decision to trade down for him which yielded some interesting prospects but guys who seem like they'll be weird fits for the actual team and the guys they maybe passed on for him it strikes me like Dermott's actual ability to contribute, even as a bottom pairing guy, might be our first real glimpse in just how the Too Many Cooks era worked out from a scouting/drafting standpoint.
herman
Well-known member
Nik the Trik said:
It feels like 2nd round picks are always the true test of a scouting staff/managements abilities at the draft. We've had 5 of them in the past 3 years (Dermott, Bracco, Korshkov, Grundstrom, Rasanen). At least two of them better become more than run of the mill NHLers.
Coco-puffs
New member
Bullfrog said:
Seems like you aren't the only one enamoured with Johnsson. Jason Bourne, formerly the Marlies video coach, lists his three favourite Marlies knocking on the Maple Leafs door:
https://theathletic.com/85356/2017/08/22/bourne-meet-the-three-toronto-marlies-knocking-on-the-maple-leafs-door/
The list:
Dermott
Johnsson
Grundstrom
Note: Kapanen was not on the list because Bourne says he's pretty much already walked through the door and should be on the team to start the season. Bourne also takes a shot at the media for (earlier in the season) saying Kapanen wasn't the Leafs top prospect.
Anyways, for me, his comments on Dermott are the most interesting because our defense needs improvement. I've been pretty high on Dermott for a while now and Bourne makes me even more confident he will be an NHL defenseman based on his comments. Now its a question of when.
herman
Well-known member
I like his note about Dermott's strength (he's a tank) and elusiveness. Also of note is Borgman's similar physique. Sure they aren't as tall, but the lower centre of gravity is advantageous for maintaining balance and positioning leverage. Coupled with more than adequate speed and edge work, they should be able to push rushes off into less dangerous areas of the ice.
This is the best:
This is the best:
herman
Well-known member
PPP: 8. Connor Carrick
The article touches on what I believe to be the reason for Carrick's stifled numbers: he was the safe-guy on Gardiner's line. Similar to Zaitsev's transition to the NHL, it looks like they were both told to play it safe in the offensive zone, as their partners were Gardiner and Reilly. It sort of makes sense with the forward make up as well, having our best playmakers in Nylander and Marner on the right wing opens up LD lanes at the weaker blocker side.
TLN: 15. Trevor Moore
The article touches on what I believe to be the reason for Carrick's stifled numbers: he was the safe-guy on Gardiner's line. Similar to Zaitsev's transition to the NHL, it looks like they were both told to play it safe in the offensive zone, as their partners were Gardiner and Reilly. It sort of makes sense with the forward make up as well, having our best playmakers in Nylander and Marner on the right wing opens up LD lanes at the weaker blocker side.
TLN: 15. Trevor Moore
herman
Well-known member
So Liljegren goes ahead of Carrick and Dermott but behind Brown and Kapanen. I can live with that.
I just realized that Leivo went ahead of Dermott. That's pretty questionable.
Coco-puffs
New member
CarltonTheBear said:
As herman said, PPP tends to vote more with what they know. Had they gone more with realistic upside, you'd have Dermott ahead of Leivo for sure and Liljegren ahead of Kapanen and Brown. Which is how I ranked them.
Coco-puffs said:
Well what made it particularly surprising was how low he was on previous lists. In 2015 he was 15th, and last year he dropped all the way back to 18th (behind younger guys like Bracco, Timashov, Johnsson who all have a higher upside). And I don't really think much has changed in regards to his status in the past few years other than his age. He's not really much closer to a full time NHL job than he was 2 years ago.