Ranking Prospects 2018-19

[herman]

23. Mason Marchment

Undrafted and basically set adrift after his junior eligibility wore off, someone in the organization really went to bat for Marchment's potential.

You can?t separate the Marchment story from the ?Kyle Dubas Three-Tiered Development Program? story. It?s a narrative that is perhaps overemphasized at times, but then you have Mason Marchment there and see him play and be a key contributor to the Marlies Calder Cup win and it?s hard to think it isn?t a real actual thing. Dubas sees the ECHL as a place to put some hidden gem who has very raw potential but needs extra time to develop. Orlando became the place to pan for gold, and Marchment has become the emblem of success for this philosophy for Leafs fans.

Even if he doesn't make the NHL team (he could probably fulfill spot duty on the 4th wing), I'm still big on this for the reason stated above. Marchment, Justin Holl, and Trevor Moore are the first wave of dregs from traditional development systems to float to the cusp of NHL opportunity. It's a much shorter runway for NHL success than your 1st and 2nd rounders, but if they catch fire for even a season or two, that's an asset from virtually nothing (other than time and contract space). They're not going to be your fully paid core players, but they are going to keep the prospect pipeline at a higher pressure and save UFA money for the players that matter. I think we'll see something similar with Kristian Pospisil.

 

[herman]

22. Dmytro Timashov

I know I generally don't believe in this for the Leafs, but in a traditional team build, Timashov would be top-6 or bust. He's a heavy body, but doesn't play that shutdown style. Drafted in the same year but a year apart in age, he's basically the mirror Jeremy Bracco: perimeter playmaker and powerplay specialist with average speed (but getting quicker). The advantage Timashov has over Bracco is he plays the much more open left wing.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

much more open left wing.

I'm not doubting the statement, just curious on the theory. Is the left wing more open?

 

[Bullfrog]

I think it is. RW is Marner-Nylander-Kapanen-Brown. LW locked up is Marleau, Hyman, and Johnsson. After that it's open: Leivo, Tyler Ennis (though he's probably 4th centre)

 

[herman]

much more open left wing.

I'm not doubting the statement, just curious on the theory. Is the left wing more open?

I was referring to the depth chart on the Leafs in the top-9 as Bullfrog outlined. Bracco basically has no opening so long as Nylander is playing wing. Unless Babcock suddenly shifts his 4th line philosophy to PP specialists rather than PK, Bracco is destined to be trade bait. Timashov has a shot at a 3rd line spot when Marleau is gone, or Hyman is 4RW'd.

If we're talking systems though... I might point to the relative dearth of RD in the league, but I doubt that has any significant impact on entry routes/results. Shooting theory-wise, I have previously posited that a right-shot from the left wing has a higher success rate putting pucks into the net due to most goalies being right blockers (Ovechkin, Stamkos, Kovalchuk, Panarin), but I haven't the technical skills to scrape and parse the data (if there even is accurate data on shot location + shot on goal location + pre-shot movement).

 

[OldTimeHockey]

much more open left wing.

I'm not doubting the statement, just curious on the theory. Is the left wing more open?

I was referring to the depth chart on the Leafs in the top-9 as Bullfrog outlined. Bracco basically has no opening so long as Nylander is playing wing. Unless Babcock suddenly shifts his 4th line philosophy to PP specialists rather than PK, Bracco is destined to be trade bait. Timashov has a shot at a 3rd line spot when Marleau is gone, or Hyman is 4RW'd.

If we're talking systems though... I might point to the relative dearth of RD in the league, but I doubt that has any significant impact on entry routes/results. Shooting theory-wise, I have previously posited that a right-shot from the left wing has a higher success rate putting pucks into the net due to most goalies being right blockers (Ovechkin, Stamkos, Kovalchuk, Panarin), but I haven't the technical skills to scrape and parse the data (if there even is accurate data on shot location + shot on goal location + pre-shot movement).

hahaha I so misunderstood your original post!

 

[herman]

21. Yegor Korshkov

Speaking of left wing options...

This one is further down the pipeline (at least one more year of KHL), but he has grown from young benchwarmer to all-situations utility man with wheels, flashes of skill, and the physicality to back up his size.

 

[Frank E]

21. Yegor Korshkov

Speaking of left wing options...

This one is further down the pipeline (at least one more year of KHL), but he has grown from young benchwarmer to all-situations utility man with wheels, flashes of skill, and the physicality to back up his size.

This might be the most polarizing pick of the last 5 years.

I think what fuels further frustration is that we've never actually seen the guy play...DeBrincat has 52 points in 82 games, but interestingly didn't get taken until spot 39.

 

[herman]

This might be the most polarizing pick of the last 5 years.

I think what fuels further frustration is that we've never actually seen the guy play...DeBrincat has 52 points in 82 games, but interestingly didn't get taken until spot 39.

Does it count as polarizing if it is widely panned?

 

[Frank E]

This might be the most polarizing pick of the last 5 years.

I think what fuels further frustration is that we've never actually seen the guy play...DeBrincat has 52 points in 82 games, but interestingly didn't get taken until spot 39.

Does it count as polarizing if it is widely panned?

Yeah, that's probably more accurate.

The fact that he choose to stay in the KHL for another year, rather than signing with the Leafs and play Marlies hockey, probably isn't a good sign when he's 22 years old.

Having said that, I don't know that the Leafs even offered him a contract.

 

[herman]

The fact that he choose to stay in the KHL for another year, rather than signing with the Leafs and play Marlies hockey, probably isn't a good sign when he's 22 years old.

Having said that, I don't know that the Leafs even offered him a contract.

He felt he had unfinished business in the KHL as last season didn't go as well as he wanted (even though he markedly improved, especially following the coaching change). The KHL also pays a lot better and this coach actually likes him and wants to use him in key situations. Normally players of his age the past couple of seasons get nominal playing time in the KHL and yo-yo'd to the junior or farm team leagues (MHL, VHL). He has held his own and continued to gain traction in a league that really doesn't do any favours for the youth.

There is no time limit on when the Leafs need to offer Korshkov (or any MHL/KHL draft picks) a bona fide contract as we retain their rights indefinitely.

While I would have much preferred some higher end skill with this pick (DeBrincat, Girard), Korshkov is not a bad player in the slightest and can really be slotted into the wings at any position and give the team value. When Hyman/Brown are priced out of our roster, Korshkov, Grundstrom are going to be solid replacements with higher scoring upside. Korshkov is Engvall/Marchment/Gauthier height (and reach) but 2-3x their speed.

Edit: Adding a recent reddit report on Korshkov

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/billius27/status/1026492282210578432

This chart shows the difference between Dubas' draft this offseason, compared to the Lou drafts from the past two years, for OHL defensemen only.

 

[Frank E]

I'm not being critical of you here, herman, but that tweet is a pretty weak attempt at a compliment to Dubas for drafting this year...a simple PPG stat?

 

[Bullfrog]

I think it's nonetheless engcouraging. I've always been of the opinion that even "defensive specialists" have to be able to produce big-time offense at the junior level. If you're already starting with someone who can't score at junior level, it's less likely they'll amount to anything at higher levels.

 

[herman]

I'm not being critical of you here, herman, but that tweet is a pretty weak attempt at a compliment to Dubas for drafting this year...a simple PPG stat?

Bullfrog already outlined it, but PPG is one of the better indicators available publically that translates to NHL success. Yes, it is a bit simplistic and flat. pGPS is an alternative you might?ve be interested in that does comparisons with past players with similar profiles.

Here?s Rasmus Sandin?s profile for reference (pGPS is a bit further down).

I welcome criticism in any case people who see things differently from me can only help me triangulate a better picture at the end of the day, and that?s what discussion forums are for.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't really think that chart is trying to prove that Dubas' draft was better than Hunter's, just that it's pretty clear they were going after different players. It's still entirely possible that Rasanen and Gordeev end up being the best two defencemen from those groups.

 

[Bullfrog]

Agreed Mr Carl, that's how I see it and is also why I find it encouraging. If it was up to me, every single pick would be based on offensive potential.

 

[Frank E]

I'm not being critical of you here, herman, but that tweet is a pretty weak attempt at a compliment to Dubas for drafting this year...a simple PPG stat?

Bullfrog already outlined it, but PPG is one of the better indicators available publically that translates to NHL success. Yes, it is a bit simplistic and flat. pGPS is an alternative you might?ve be interested in that does comparisons with past players with similar profiles.

Here?s Rasmus Sandin?s profile for reference (pGPS is a bit further down).

I welcome criticism in any case people who see things differently from me can only help me triangulate a better picture at the end of the day, and that?s what discussion forums are for.

I don't have any issue with the pick, but it's not like he was an off the board pick, he was ranked right there.

Trying to frame this as a "Dubas vs. Lou/Hunter" pick is a little silly.  You don't have to look far to determine his points production, as a GM. 

 

[Frank E]

And really, just to add to my comment, I'm getting a little sick and tired of reading about how Dubas is about drafting skill, and Hunter/Lou was about size.

Hunter/Lou drafted plenty of skill over size over the past few years here.  They may have swung for the fences with some big d-men, but Dermott is a pretty strong example of what they drafted when they were picking high...other than the stupid Korshkov pick.

 

[Frank E]

I don't really think that chart is trying to prove that Dubas' draft was better than Hunter's, just that it's pretty clear they were going after different players. It's still entirely possible that Rasanen and Gordeev end up being the best two defencemen from those groups.

So the past 2 drafts, where which they picked Liljegren and Sandin in the first round?