Ranking Prospects 2018-19

[herman]

I think Hunter is pretty high on skill and IQ, but under Lou?s tenure, it manifested as drafting for tools, relative to Dubas drafting for even strength results. 

https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2015/06/28/leafs-mark-hunter-works-hard-to-find-players-that-make-it-look-easy.html

?Skilled players have a better chance to get things done on the ice,? Hunter said. ?You get a big, strong guy, it?s hard to develop skill. Guys that do have skill, you can develop them physically. They can get stronger. That?s how I look at it.

?The Detroit Red Wings have been doing that for years. They can get stronger, but you can?t put hockey sense into a player.?

 

[Highlander]

And really, just to add to my comment, I'm getting a little sick and tired of reading about how Dubas is about drafting skill, and Hunter/Lou was about size.

Hunter/Lou drafted plenty of skill over size over the past few years here.  They may have swung for the fences with some big d-men, but Dermott is a pretty strong example of what they drafted when they were picking high...other than the stupid Korshkov pick.

What do you mean Frankie, Koshkov could become the next Fred Modin

 

[herman]

20. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev

This is a pretty big debut for a freshly drafted non-first rounder.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So the past 2 drafts, where which they picked Liljegren and Sandin in the first round?

Well yeah, it's kinda ironic that both of Hunter's non-Matthews 1st round picks were more "home-run" selections than Dubas' first 1st rounder.

On another note, when judging Hunter's draft record I don't think we should ignore the influence of Lou here as well. In 2015 before he was hired, Dubas himself said that he and Hunter worked more side-by-side as co-GMs and they both tackled the draft. I think that you can see that in how the draft played out (trading down, taking swings on guys like Bracco, Timashov, Korostelev). When Lou came aboard Hunter and Dubas' duties were more clearly defined and split. This led to Dubas having less of a role in the draft and I'd imagine Lou had some influence on the kinds of players the Leafs were picking.

Now as a Dubas fan I should point out, the 2015 draft that he had more of a voice in hasn't been the smashing success that some of us hoped it would be. The jury is still very much out on a number of those players. I still like the strategy that they took, but so far it hasn't panned out. And while I liked the 2018 draft more than the 16 and 17 drafts, there were picks that the armchair-GM in me would have made differently (Veleno and Addison in particular).

So so far, neither Hunter or Dubas have shown to be draft gurus exactly. The problem is the media won't shut up about calling one of them that and it's completely unfounded at this point.

 

[Frank E]

So so far, neither Hunter or Dubas have shown to be draft gurus exactly. The problem is the media won't shut up about calling one of them that and it's completely unfounded at this point.

I think that was my point...these people falling over each other trying to anoint either one of these guys is premature at best, wrong at worst.

 

[Kin]

So so far, neither Hunter or Dubas have shown to be draft gurus exactly. The problem is the media won't shut up about calling one of them that and it's completely unfounded at this point.

One of the constant realities of the Shanahan era has been some media types, and resultingly a lot of fans, wanting to give people credit for things that had yet to happen.

 

[Bender]

20. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev

This is a pretty big debut for a freshly drafted non-first rounder.

Maybe they just like his taking over for JVR. SDA!

 

[herman]

So so far, neither Hunter or Dubas have shown to be draft gurus exactly. The problem is the media won't shut up about calling one of them that and it's completely unfounded at this point.

I think that was my point...these people falling over each other trying to anoint either one of these guys is premature at best, wrong at worst.

One of the constant realities of the Shanahan era has been some media types, and resultingly a lot of fans, wanting to give people credit for things that had yet to happen.

Isn't sports media incentivized to take a stand one way or another? Wait and see doesn't generate attention/clicks the way being right (or being super wrong) does.

 

[herman]

19. Eemeli R?s?nen

R?s?nen just fell off the bottom of my rankings, but that part of the list is a crapshoot from 12 down, so ?\_(ツ)_/?. He's closer to the bottom end for me because I don't think he thinks the game very well and largely gets by with being... large (he really likes to hit, to the detriment of his responsibilities). But he plays the coveted RD position and is not a terribad skater, and that 6'7" height and reach is not nothing in that position.

He's going to be playing in the KHL this season so it'll be a bit of out-of-sight; out-of-mind in terms of tracking his progress. Playing up in a pro league might hold him in better stead with more structure to simplify decision-making.

 

[Frank E]

So so far, neither Hunter or Dubas have shown to be draft gurus exactly. The problem is the media won't shut up about calling one of them that and it's completely unfounded at this point.

I think that was my point...these people falling over each other trying to anoint either one of these guys is premature at best, wrong at worst.

One of the constant realities of the Shanahan era has been some media types, and resultingly a lot of fans, wanting to give people credit for things that had yet to happen.

Isn't sports media incentivized to take a stand one way or another? Wait and see doesn't generate attention/clicks the way being right (or being super wrong) does.

I guess I see it differently.

I think it's the Leafs' job to send out the press releases and tell everyone how awesome the players they drafted are, and how great things look for the future, and you should pay super high dollars to see our product.

I think it's the sports media's job to sift through that BS, and really comment on the realities of the current state of affairs and the future prospects. 

I think some of the media people are doing the opposite, and really painting Dubas and the Leafs moves/draft picks as being superior without any evidence.  And this is interesting to me, because this Toronto sports media was traditionally seen as critical of everything.

 

[Kin]

Isn't sports media incentivized to take a stand one way or another? Wait and see doesn't generate attention/clicks the way being right (or being super wrong) does.

To the extent that all media is incentivized towards hot takes and sensationalism, sure. It's still, you know, dumb.

 

[herman]

I think it's the sports media's job to sift through that BS, and really comment on the realities of the current state of affairs and the future prospects. 

I think some of the media people are doing the opposite, and really painting Dubas and the Leafs moves/draft picks as being superior without any evidence.  And this is interesting to me, because this Toronto sports media was traditionally seen as critical of everything.

You're such a romantic The media has done the same for the beginning of every regime change, and then after the honeymoon period the knives come out at the first sign of distress. Perhaps you're reacting more to the blogosphere side of Toronto sports media, because they see Dubas as doing all the things they've been telling the old front offices to do and also doing things they didn't think of (whether it works or not, but at least trying). There are definitely some MSM members who initially bemoaned Dubas' anointing especially at the cost of the more traditional Lou/Hunter combo, but they've quieted significantly with the Calder Cup and Tavares news.

To the extent that all media is incentivized towards hot takes and sensationalism, sure. It's still, you know, dumb.

Which is why discussion boards like these (and twitter/reddit/facebook moreso) exist, right? It's not just media though: some of our best discussions here unfortunately spawned from really bad takes that were doubled down on for months.

 

[Kin]

Which is why discussion boards like these (and twitter/reddit/facebook moreso) exist, right? It's not just media though: some of our best discussions here unfortunately spawned from really bad takes that were doubled down on for months.

I've never really thought of the purpose of a place like this to be to fact check the media, even if media criticism is a part of what we inevitably discuss. We can still expect more from the people paid to write and talk about this stuff.

But again, there's a wide range of difference between a bad or wrong take and what I'm talking about. Saying in February that the Leafs wouldn't sign Tavares or whatever was wrong, sure, and saying that they would or might was more correct. Saying that they should already get the credit for having done it though is bordering on the insane.

 

[herman]

Which is why discussion boards like these (and twitter/reddit/facebook moreso) exist, right? It's not just media though: some of our best discussions here unfortunately spawned from really bad takes that were doubled down on for months.

I've never really thought of the purpose of a place like this to be to fact check the media, even if media criticism is a part of what we inevitably discuss. We can still expect more from the people paid to write and talk about this stuff.

I don't disagree here; at the same time, who is in charge of what you read and listen to?

Saying that they should already get the credit for having done it though is bordering on the insane.

Again, I don't disagree. Are we still talking about Hofford's hyperbole here, or more of a general zeitgeist thing? If it is about Hofford's comment about the team being on the verge of winning a Cup, I'd argue that was his accurate assessment of what most of the Leafs front office/players believed, just based off the moves they did/did not make. I am crossing up threads here.

 

[Kin]

I don't disagree here; at the same time, who is in charge of what you read and listen to?

I think that's a more complicated question than you think, especially now that there's massive overlap between people who are ostensibly the critical media and game coverage. Someone out there may not like a Damian Cox or Elliotte Friedman or whoever but if they're just consuming the games themselves or watching Sportsnet generally they're bound to hear from all manner of people that they may not personally hold in high regard. It's one of the many thorny issues in wrapping up rights-holders and analysis in one(or two) conglomerates.

But even in the pre-internet age I think that being a savvy media consumer in a local market meant paying attention to things even if they weren't necessarily in your wheel house. Reading Cox or Strachan might not have been your cup of tea but being a Leafs-focused columnist at one of the city's dailies was a big deal and their opinions informed and often created the discussion around the team. Besides, if you were reading the paper you may as well read the whole damn paper.

I realize that the modern trend is to be selective in the media you consume to the point that you only see/read/hear the people you like or who do their jobs the way you approve of but I think that sort of devalues the communal nature of being a sports fan.

Again, I don't disagree. Are we still talking about Hofford's hyperbole here, or more of a general zeitgeist thing?

I was making sort of a separate point about something I've seen a lot of since Shanahan took over that I don't really think we saw before.

 

[herman]

I hope you don't mind, Nik, that I've pushed the response to the above into the media thread; I think it's a very interesting discussion but lacking in prospect rankings.

 

[Highlander]

yes Rasanen has been hijacked

 

[herman]

18. Sean Durzi

He's basically a rover.

His draft year was hampered by discovering he had Os Trigonum Syndrome that required surgical correction and subsequent rehab that led to him sitting at the 2017 draft through 7 rounds. Getting drafted by his hometown team the following year was his reward for the breakout season he followed up that disappointment with.

Dubas invited him to the 2017-18 dev camp and wanted to sign him, but didn't have the contract space at the time.

 

[herman]

17. Jeremy Bracco

Braccooooooooo!

He got the rookie treatment, but also started the season on the wrong foot with a bout of mono over the summer (Mitchy, what you doing?). He does have a bit of a hill to climb in order to make it to the Leafs as he occupies the same niche as Marner and Nylander, and Brown and Kapanen offer complementary benefits. A reality of the cap era is that decent to good wingers will need to be shed as they climb the pay scale, so options like Bracco (and Grundstrom, Korshkov, etc.) will eventually find roster space, or be spun off for assets in niches of need.

 

[Kin]

FWIW, I thought Bracco might have been the answer to that question WIGWAL put out in the armchair GM thread.