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Ranking Prospects 2018-19

16. Adam Brooks

Brooks' pro career started on the back of a playoff concussion and subsequent off-season mono (Mitch, what you doing? Please make friends with Jack Hughes and Alexis Lafreniere). Because of the Marlies also running Mueller, Smith, Gauthier, and Aaltonen, Brooks didn't get the minutes he was best suited for. He did get a hybrid role though: offensive centre with minimal minutes in overmatch situations. herman is in favour of this sort of 4th line deployment.

Rounding out his defensive acumen and translating his offensive instincts into play without the puck will be the ticket to get him onto the Leafs, likely through the wing as centre redundancy. He's been getting PK reps, a la Kapanen.
 
I get that you can argue that Moore was buried down the line-up a little, but Brown led the Marlies in scoring in his first season and then in his 2nd year almost matched Moore's sophomore season point totals in half as many games. So we should maybe easy up a little on the 'Moore's a faster Connor Brown' talk.
 
herman said:
Imagine if Connor Brown was left handed and a much faster skater and could generate zone entries at will (like Will).
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CarltonTheBear said:
I get that you can argue that Moore was buried down the line-up a little, but Brown led the Marlies in scoring in his first season and then in his 2nd year almost matched Moore's sophomore season point totals in half as many games. So we should maybe easy up a little on the 'Moore's a faster Connor Brown' talk.
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Ice time + quality of teammates probably accounts for a lot of that difference. I should have specified that was a stylistic comparison more than anything.
 
https://twitter.com/coreypronman/status/1029354060368027648

I am very surprised the Leafs ended up this high on the list considering all our top eggs are in the NHL, but at the same time, I am very insulted that they are rated lower than Montreal and Chicago.
 
herman said:
I am very surprised the Leafs ended up this high on the list considering all our top eggs are in the NHL, but at the same time, I am very insulted that they are rated lower than Montreal and Chicago.
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The fact that he still considers Johnsson a prospect is a big boost. He alone probably bumped us up 5-ish spots.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
herman said:
I am very surprised the Leafs ended up this high on the list considering all our top eggs are in the NHL, but at the same time, I am very insulted that they are rated lower than Montreal and Chicago.
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The fact that he still considers Johnsson a prospect is a big boost. He alone probably bumped us up 5-ish spots.
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For non-subscribers, this is the requirement:
A player is no longer considered an NHL prospect if he has played more than 25 NHL games in any single season, 50 career NHL games or is older than age 27 as of Sept. 15, 2018. All other players are considered eligible.
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Johnsson has 9 regular season games and 6 playoff games.
 
Besides the overall farm ranking, Pronman's write up is worth a look. I like his categories and added my own interpretation of what they probably mean (based on his description of each player) in the coming years.

Very Good NHL Prospect = Top 6F / Top 4D projection
1. Liljegren

Legit NHL Prospect = Top 6F / Top 4D Upside
2. Johnsson
3. SDA
4. Bracco
5. Grundstrom
6. Sandin
7. Korshkov

Have a Chance = Bottom 6 / Bottom Pair / Backup Upside
8. Woll
9. Durzi
10. Rasanen
11. Engvall
12. Gordeev
13. Sparks
14. Rosen
15. Timashov

Depth Notes = Probable AHLers
16. Holl
17. Ozhiganov
18. Nielsen
19. Stotts
20. Brooks
21. Gauthier

Reads to me like we have a replacement for Gardiner should he leave (though maybe D takes a step back in the short term) and have 2 (Johnsson, Grundstrom) or 3 (if we count Korshkov) guys who could replace Brown and/or Hyman in the next 2 years. The others in that tier are farther out. I'd rate that as... not quite good enough? Replacing Gardiner will be hard, so some time for Liljegren to grow into a top-4 role is fine, but we really should have more than 2 guys as options to replace Brown and Hyman before their contracts are up.

So... once again, thanks for holding tight to JVR, Bozak, and Komarov, Lou.
 
mr grieves said:
Besides the overall farm ranking, Pronman's write up is worth a look. I like his categories and added my own interpretation of what they probably mean (based on his description of each player) in the coming years.

Very Good NHL Prospect = Top 6F / Top 4D projection
1. Liljegren

Legit NHL Prospect = Top 6F / Top 4D Upside
2. Johnsson
3. SDA
4. Bracco
5. Grundstrom
6. Sandin
7. Korshkov

Have a Chance = Bottom 6 / Bottom Pair / Backup Upside
8. Woll
9. Durzi
10. Rasanen
11. Engvall
12. Gordeev
13. Sparks
14. Rosen
15. Timashov

Depth Notes = Probable AHLers
16. Holl
17. Ozhiganov
18. Nielsen
19. Stotts
20. Brooks
21. Gauthier

Reads to me like we have a replacement for Gardiner should he leave (though maybe D takes a step back in the short term) and have 2 (Johnsson, Grundstrom) or 3 (if we count Korshkov) guys who could replace Brown and/or Hyman in the next 2 years. The others in that tier are farther out. I'd rate that as... not quite good enough? Replacing Gardiner will be hard, so some time for Liljegren to grow into a top-4 role is fine, but we really should have more than 2 guys as options to replace Brown and Hyman before their contracts are up.

So... once again, thanks for holding tight to JVR, Bozak, and Komarov, Lou.
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I mean, for the next 4 years we'll have Kadri, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares -- that's our core, all relatively young (Kadri and Tavares will be 31 at the end of 4 years)  Kadri might go after 4 but we'll have the rest presumably for a few more seasons after that. 

Worrying about replacing Brown and/or Hyman in 2 or 3 seasons seems like small potatoes to me when you have your core forwards locked up.

On D we keep Rielly and Zaitsev (hoping to God he bounces back).  Then you have Dermott and hopefully Liljegren in 2-3 seasons.  That's a top 4, the rest you can fill out with entry level/FA signings.
 
PPP: 12. Rasmus Sandin

Rasmus Sandin coming in over someone with greater NHL proximity in Carl Grundstrom might be jarring to some, but Sandin is ridiculously smart with and without the puck and could conceivably be the next Travis Dermott (whom we already love). Grundstrom tops out as a complementary/dependent winger who brings a scoring touch with tunnel vision.

https://twitter.com/scottcwheeler/status/1030228226998775808
Nothing flashy. Just taking the puck to where it should go pretty much every time.

I have Sandin higher than the Brown, Carrick tier in my own minimal-effort ranking. This is not to say Brown and Carrick are not smart. Brown has a lot of the off-puck structure down pat, and is almost always in the right spot to capitalize. And Carrick can breakdown the game and the way to play better than some coaches. Sandin's higher value in my mind comes from his projected impact on the game as a top-4 defender that is always funneling the puck into generating opportunity.

TLN: 17. Eemeli Rasanen

16. Jesper Lindgren
 
Zee said:
I mean, for the next 4 years we'll have Kadri, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares -- that's our core, all relatively young (Kadri and Tavares will be 31 at the end of 4 years)  Kadri might go after 4 but we'll have the rest presumably for a few more seasons after that. 

Worrying about replacing Brown and/or Hyman in 2 or 3 seasons seems like small potatoes to me when you have your core forwards locked up.
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Agreed that having a core in place leaves us with no too much to worry about. The Leafs have done the hard part of getting a contender built... so, when looking at the prospect pool, the main question is whether they have the pieces to sustain it. That's "small potatoes," sure.
 
PPP: 11. Andreas Borgman

TLN: 15. Filip Kral

At 5v5, Kral was one of the best defencemen in the WHL last year.

Among all WHL defencemen, he sat 15th in 5v5 Pts/GP with 0.44. All but one player of that fourteen above Kral was younger than him ? New Jersey Devils prospect and Spokane Chiefs teammate Ty Smith. Considering his age and draft eligibility, Kral should have definitely been talked about more within prospect circles.

All of Kral?s comparables in the WHL that were taken in the 2018 NHL Draft, were taken much earlier than the fifth round. Jett Woo, Ty Smith, Alexander Alexeyev and Calen Addison, all had similar years to Kral at even-strength. Considering the chart below from Mitch Brown, he looks like a very solid bet to make in the later rounds of the draft.
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PPP: 10. Connor Carrick

PPP favours NHL track record, hence Carrick and Borgman being higher.

Also, there is only so much 'market share' on a team for the free-wheelers and risk-takers, so these bottom guys are expected to be boring and safe. I wish it were otherwise.

TLN: 14. Yegor Korshkov
 
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2018/8/21/17763408/toronto-maple-leafs-draft-prospect-martins-dzierkals-joins-dinamo-riga-in-the-khl

Martins Dzierkals wills bes playings ins thes KHLs nexts seasons.

I was kind of hoping he'd make the jump to the AHL, but it's not like he lit up the opposition with the Solar Bears. Playing in a higher tier pro-league will only benefit him, without plugging up our dev teams.
 
herman said:
PPP: 10. Connor Carrick

PPP favours NHL track record, hence Carrick and Borgman being higher.

Also, there is only so much 'market share' on a team for the free-wheelers and risk-takers, so these bottom guys are expected to be boring and safe. I wish it were otherwise.

TLN: 14. Yegor Korshkov
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Not exactly a glowing review, and that's from the geek squad over at PPP.

I think they're going to be in tough there at 3rd pairing RHD unless Liljegren really progresses.
 
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