On the Nick Robertson front, I think part of the problem is that the Leafs "NEED" some of their prospects to contribute. The cap has made it that way, so people are expecting him to come in an provide scoring depth and take a roster spot at a really cheap cost. This could be a problem if the Leafs start rushing prospects. We'll get back to the old narrative of "The Leafs don't know how to develop players". To be fair, I always thought that was a bit of an incorrect assessment of the Leafs.
Ranking Prospects 2022-2023
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
Zee said:
I think that every player has a different timeline. Matthews could step into the league at 18 and contribute right away. Marner needed another year. In the case of Robertson, I worry that cap pressure will cause them to put some of these players in a situation where they won't be in the best possible position to succeed. Based on what I have seen, it looks like Robertson needs a little more seasoning. He has all the tools but he needs a better toolbox. He just looks like he is a half step behind the play.
Heroic Shrimp
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https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1560824608227475456
Heroic Shrimp
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https://twitter.com/starsports/status/1560939844515155968
lamajama said:
Right, and that is the point. If you read my earlier posts, my fear is that they won't give him that time to develop. Take a look at a lot of the line combinations that people have here for the coming year, and people are penciling in Robertson to play on the big club in some way shape or form, and the reason they are doing that is because of the cap issues that the team has. If he isn't ready to play in that role, then that is a mistake. If he needs the time in the AHL, then it is better to let him play there for the year to gain that development time.
The flip side of that though is that the Leafs need cheap young depth to start coming through the system.
KadriFan said:
Overall I am not angry with the traded picks. I think that Dubas has done a good job of recouping where he has needed to.
My fear is more that Dubas philosophy on drafting smaller skilled players, and taking swings at players isn't going to pay off in the long run. Most people judge the Leafs pipeline as being full, but in order for that to be true, you need to start having impact players filter through to the big club.
I'll give credit to Dubas in that he has a vision on how he wants the team to be constructed and how he wants the team to play. This has lead to the Leafs management making sound decisions for the most part and putting together an elite regular season team. There seems to be a coherence in the moves that the Leafs are making that hasn't been there in years past. The management team doesn't appear to be scrambling. Also Dubas strategy has payed off at every level except the NHL.
The thing is, what if that strategy won't pay off at the NHL level? What if there is some aspect of team building that Dubas is missing? It's hard to judge because you can come up reasons for why the Leafs have failed to advance past the first rounds each of the last five years, but at the same time, how long can you keep coming up with reasons before you have to make a change?
Heroic Shrimp
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https://twitter.com/scottcwheeler/status/1561178179095580672
Niemela had the primary assist on the game tying goal:
https://twitter.com/iihfhockey/status/1561174634191638529
Niemela had the primary assist on the game tying goal:
https://twitter.com/iihfhockey/status/1561174634191638529
herman
Well-known member
PPP: 19. Filip Kral
One of our bigger remaining prospects on Defense (RIP Hunter era) whose skating is not a liability; but the path to the NHL for an LD is a crowded one and he's going to have to find a way to stand out in one way or another.
Eliteprospects has updated his weight, so he's substantially thicker than what PPP has listed. Let's see if he really uses it this coming season with the Marlies.
One of our bigger remaining prospects on Defense (RIP Hunter era) whose skating is not a liability; but the path to the NHL for an LD is a crowded one and he's going to have to find a way to stand out in one way or another.
Eliteprospects has updated his weight, so he's substantially thicker than what PPP has listed. Let's see if he really uses it this coming season with the Marlies.
herman
Well-known member
Significantly Insignificant said:
His drafting philosophy isn't specifically smaller skilled players: it's just how the draft board shook out at that time. The draft philosophy is size agnostic, so those just happened to be the player targets that were available.
I will note that their philosophy has adjusted in the past year or two: they're less hyper focused on puck possessors (maybe-Marners: SDA, Abramov, etc) and putting more value on puck hounds and retrievers and people who take pucks off the walls and into dirty ice with regularity (Hirvonen, Knies, Minten, Voit, Ovchinnikov, Miettinen, Moldenhauer). The inefficiency they're digging in on are projectable players with stunted productions that have situational explanations (Knies - COVID, Moldenhauer - skateface, Niemela - baby playing Mens league). Dubas explained as much recently about the unqualified RFAs and UFAs that he is targeting for cheapo seasons (Kase, Kampf, Bunting, Gaudette).
herman
Well-known member
https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1561759965185982465
No roster announced yet, but I assume it'll be all the development camp participants that are under Leafs/Marlies contract + some of the Marlies that had aged out of the dev camp (Abbruzzese, SDA, etc) + dev camp invites that impressed
https://theleafsnation.com/2022/08/11/dates-set-for-the-leafs-prospect-tournament/
Per Cushman, European and NCAA are not available (Knies, Hirvonen, Niemela)
Last season's lineup for reference
https://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/news/maple-leafs-announce-2021-prospect-tournament-roster/c-326144854
No roster announced yet, but I assume it'll be all the development camp participants that are under Leafs/Marlies contract + some of the Marlies that had aged out of the dev camp (Abbruzzese, SDA, etc) + dev camp invites that impressed
https://theleafsnation.com/2022/08/11/dates-set-for-the-leafs-prospect-tournament/
Per Cushman, European and NCAA are not available (Knies, Hirvonen, Niemela)
Last season's lineup for reference
https://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/news/maple-leafs-announce-2021-prospect-tournament-roster/c-326144854
herman said:
Fair enough. I guess I have attached a stigma to Dubas draft policies without ever going back and checking.
Regardless of draft policies though, they do need (and need might be dramatic, as really it's more of it would be nice) the pipeline to produce a couple of forwards who can contribute on cheap contracts for hopefully a couple of years. If they can get Sandin signed to a two year deal, then that would be great, as both his deal and Liljgren's would be up when Muzzin, Brodie, and Giordano's are up, and therefore there should be money to get them signed. That gives you a top three of Rielly, Sandin, and Liljgren. That's assuming that they can play in the top three, but they have two years to figure that out.
herman
Well-known member
Just going by general timelines (and this is by no means statistically rigorous), this is the season the later 2018 picks are likely to start breaking into the NHL in earnest. As for why the Leafs haven?t really had any in this window of contention outside their 1st rounders, that?d be a question for the 2015-2017 drafts.
2015: Marner | Dermott
2016: Matthews | Grundstrom sort of
2017: Liljegren | ?
2018: Sandin (borderline 1st rd pick) | Durzi, Holmberg (I?m projecting)
Outside the draft the Leafs did manage to graduate some scrap heap reclamation projects during that stretch:
Justin Holl
Trevor Moore
Mason Marchment
2015: Marner | Dermott
2016: Matthews | Grundstrom sort of
2017: Liljegren | ?
2018: Sandin (borderline 1st rd pick) | Durzi, Holmberg (I?m projecting)
Outside the draft the Leafs did manage to graduate some scrap heap reclamation projects during that stretch:
Justin Holl
Trevor Moore
Mason Marchment
herman
Well-known member
PPP: 18. Victor Mete
Probably the hardest player to rank because he's a) an established NHL player with over 200 GP, b) is very old on this list, c) is very new on this list, d) not expected to play in the NHL anyway, e) and probably going to be claimed on waivers before Game 1.
Mete is maybe best known to Leafs fans for being part of the Mitch Marner Memorial Cup run(s) with the London Knights, and getting bottom pair minutes with division rivals Montreal and Ottawa. 5'9" defensemen are always going to have it tough in the NHL (coaching bias, reach deficit) unless they have some overwhelming skills/features like Krug and Spurgeon. Mete is a good skater and has done enough on bad teams that I ranked him as basically the crossover line of who I thought could play NHL minutes (either currently or on potential), plus a small kick up for being able to play both sides of the D pair.
Probably the hardest player to rank because he's a) an established NHL player with over 200 GP, b) is very old on this list, c) is very new on this list, d) not expected to play in the NHL anyway, e) and probably going to be claimed on waivers before Game 1.
Mete is maybe best known to Leafs fans for being part of the Mitch Marner Memorial Cup run(s) with the London Knights, and getting bottom pair minutes with division rivals Montreal and Ottawa. 5'9" defensemen are always going to have it tough in the NHL (coaching bias, reach deficit) unless they have some overwhelming skills/features like Krug and Spurgeon. Mete is a good skater and has done enough on bad teams that I ranked him as basically the crossover line of who I thought could play NHL minutes (either currently or on potential), plus a small kick up for being able to play both sides of the D pair.
herman
Well-known member
PPP: 17. Mikko Kokkonen
Defensive defenseman that Finland has relied on for pretty much every international tournament that he's eligible for. And for that profile, to not hear anything about him, is kind of ok. How much of his boringness is inherent to his play and how much of it is simply a product of the Finnish system* remains to be seen. He had a good stint with the Marlies to end his season even if the numbers are a bit lucky.
* Darryl Belfry has a good breakdown of how Finland has been set up to play
https://twitter.com/belfryhockey/status/1562393964879421443
Follow the linky link.
Defensive defenseman that Finland has relied on for pretty much every international tournament that he's eligible for. And for that profile, to not hear anything about him, is kind of ok. How much of his boringness is inherent to his play and how much of it is simply a product of the Finnish system* remains to be seen. He had a good stint with the Marlies to end his season even if the numbers are a bit lucky.
* Darryl Belfry has a good breakdown of how Finland has been set up to play
https://twitter.com/belfryhockey/status/1562393964879421443
Follow the linky link.
herman
Well-known member
https://twitter.com/coreypronman/status/1562069400668307456
Pronman's cut off for eligible prospects is 22 years and younger as of Sept 15, irrespective of NHL games played. Amirov is exempted for his current health situation, and I think that would've pushed the Leafs up a couple rungs if he was still included (and had a regularish progression).
The ones that got more than simple abbreviated observations in ranking order:
1. Knies
2. Sandin
3. Robertson
4. Niemela
5. Minten
6. Hirvonen
Pronman's cut off for eligible prospects is 22 years and younger as of Sept 15, irrespective of NHL games played. Amirov is exempted for his current health situation, and I think that would've pushed the Leafs up a couple rungs if he was still included (and had a regularish progression).
The ones that got more than simple abbreviated observations in ranking order:
1. Knies
2. Sandin
3. Robertson
4. Niemela
5. Minten
6. Hirvonen