herman said:
This is probably how I'd rank the top too... although 1/2, 3/4, 5/6 could all basically be seen as coin-flips.
Ranking Prospects 2022-2023
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
This is probably how I'd rank the top too... although 1/2, 3/4, 5/6 could all basically be seen as coin-flips.
herman
Well-known member
Anyone remember that now-defunct prospect site that had a really good evaluation/ranking system for hockey prospects? Their ceiling was given a rating out of 10 and their probability to reach said ceiling was a letter grade.
Adapting a ballpark version of that from my own amateur and absolutely not rigorous research...
6 is like a 4th liner, 7 is top-9/regular, 8 is top-6/top-4
A is pretty much guaranteed
B likely if one or two elements is further developed
C needs a handful of key things to go right
D don't bet on it
Nothing in the truly blue chip space like Matthews (9.5A) or Marner (9B) or Nylander (8.5A)
1. Knies | 7.5A
2. Sandin | 8B
3. Robertson | 8C
4. Niemela | 7.5B
5. Minten | 7A
6. Hirvonen | 7.5C
I don't really have good breadth of knowledge on prospects outside of the Leafs, so my scale/grading might need adjustment relative to the field. And others will likely have differing opinions.
Adapting a ballpark version of that from my own amateur and absolutely not rigorous research...
6 is like a 4th liner, 7 is top-9/regular, 8 is top-6/top-4
A is pretty much guaranteed
B likely if one or two elements is further developed
C needs a handful of key things to go right
D don't bet on it
Nothing in the truly blue chip space like Matthews (9.5A) or Marner (9B) or Nylander (8.5A)
1. Knies | 7.5A
2. Sandin | 8B
3. Robertson | 8C
4. Niemela | 7.5B
5. Minten | 7A
6. Hirvonen | 7.5C
I don't really have good breadth of knowledge on prospects outside of the Leafs, so my scale/grading might need adjustment relative to the field. And others will likely have differing opinions.
Frank E
Active member
herman said:
I don't think I expected 100 games out of the some of the Dubas 2+ round guys, but I had hoped that they'd at least be knocking on the door at grabbing a roster spot.
And in my defense, it was reported that the Leafs have one of the biggest front offices in the league under Dubas, and it was specifically concentrated on trying to find gems that would put them over the top.
herman
Well-known member
PPP: ooh fun! A tie in the middle of the rankings! One is a mystery box who has shown flashes of brilliance amidst lackadaisical stretches and lots of bench riding; the other is a brand new mystery box that has some potential steal factors at his draft slot.
T15. Dmitry Ovchinnikov
Ovchinnikov is one of those rare birds at the MHL level that gets to the high danger ice to make plays. He terminated his contract with Sibir/Sibirskie last season to sign a 3-year ELC with the Leafs, on the stipulation that he be loaned back for one more season. He should be back in the AHL at the end of the KHL season.
He's got wheels, hands, and vision. Just needs to develop consistency and start showing he can put up numbers in the KHL (if he could ever get any minutes). There is a lot of raw potential and a steep learning curve in language/culture/playrate to come.
T15. Nicholas Moldenhauer
I liked the pick when we made it, but I think I need to see more to generate a better idea of what player template he fits, and where he projects. My difficulty is probably due to him being decent to good at everything so there's no standout feature to forecast with. So maybe something along the lines of Connor Brown, Pontus Holmberg. He worked his way back from a horrific skate-to-face injury so he's got the effort part down and is deployed like a coach's favourite.
https://twitter.com/scottcwheeler/status/1519649866724610049
T15. Dmitry Ovchinnikov
Ovchinnikov is one of those rare birds at the MHL level that gets to the high danger ice to make plays. He terminated his contract with Sibir/Sibirskie last season to sign a 3-year ELC with the Leafs, on the stipulation that he be loaned back for one more season. He should be back in the AHL at the end of the KHL season.
He's got wheels, hands, and vision. Just needs to develop consistency and start showing he can put up numbers in the KHL (if he could ever get any minutes). There is a lot of raw potential and a steep learning curve in language/culture/playrate to come.
T15. Nicholas Moldenhauer
I liked the pick when we made it, but I think I need to see more to generate a better idea of what player template he fits, and where he projects. My difficulty is probably due to him being decent to good at everything so there's no standout feature to forecast with. So maybe something along the lines of Connor Brown, Pontus Holmberg. He worked his way back from a horrific skate-to-face injury so he's got the effort part down and is deployed like a coach's favourite.
https://twitter.com/scottcwheeler/status/1519649866724610049
herman
Well-known member
Zee said:
He is a bit shallow in analysis, but he's basically scouting the entire field 5 years deep so I give him plenty of leeway there; and numerical rankings are sort of silly when players are generally just different flavours of whatever tier they have performed on.
As for Laine > Matthews, the reasoning behind that particular opinion was his favour for standout skills. And Laine's shot was definitely a standout leading up to the draft. It still is, but the rest of his game did not develop properly as he just leaned on that one tool and waited for Scheifele or Wheeler to tee him up.
Matthews, after the draft, went and re-built his shot from the ice up. And then changed his shot again after a 40 goal rookie season, on top of all the other ways he can score. And then added the defensive prowess coaches were dreaming of when he was in junior. His shot itself is top tier, but probably still a bit behind Laine and even Eichel for pure goalie beating. Matthews just has more deception in his foot and handwork and does the work to get into his spots to shoot with tremendous regularity.
herman
Well-known member
PPP: 14. William Villeneuve
Huge jump from 25 to 14 for Villeneuve; is that a function of the dearth of (known) depth in the prospect pipeline, or his progress? Both!
It probably also helps to be a key part of a Memorial Cup winner (under the weirdest circumstances I've seen so far) in terms of elevating a prospect profile.
Not sure where he projects out to yet, but he's going to attend the Timoth Liljegren school of defensive deployment and continue to develop his strength and skating.
Huge jump from 25 to 14 for Villeneuve; is that a function of the dearth of (known) depth in the prospect pipeline, or his progress? Both!
It probably also helps to be a key part of a Memorial Cup winner (under the weirdest circumstances I've seen so far) in terms of elevating a prospect profile.
Not sure where he projects out to yet, but he's going to attend the Timoth Liljegren school of defensive deployment and continue to develop his strength and skating.
Highlander
Active member
who is he I don't recognize the name on his back.
Guilt Trip
Well-known member
Riley Stotts. Drafted in the 3rd round back in 2018..played for the U of Calgary last year. Not in the Leafs plans.Highlander said:
herman
Well-known member
PPP:
Starting to get more interesting now, with yet another tie!
T12. Ty Voit
Drafted as a winger following the cancelled OHL season, the Sarnia Sting pivoted Ty Voit to first line centre amidst their rebuild and reaped immediate benefits. Stylistically, he's a left shot mini-Marner: plays all situations, primarily a playmaker with agile skating, but not at Marner's levels. He is still very smol and we'll see if he lights up the OHL for realsies.
T12. Alex Steeves
Also smol is NCAA free agent pickup Alex Steeves, who has zippy wheels and a low-maintenance game. He jumped from unknown and unranked to nearly top 10 (more of an indictment against the pipeline). He's older than most on this list but still in the zone where positive developments can occur (e.g. Trevor Moore). He started the season getting lots of offensive touches, and then transitioned to the bottom half of the roster in the second half: a sign the front office has earmarked him for filling an NHL role down the road.
Starting to get more interesting now, with yet another tie!
T12. Ty Voit
Drafted as a winger following the cancelled OHL season, the Sarnia Sting pivoted Ty Voit to first line centre amidst their rebuild and reaped immediate benefits. Stylistically, he's a left shot mini-Marner: plays all situations, primarily a playmaker with agile skating, but not at Marner's levels. He is still very smol and we'll see if he lights up the OHL for realsies.
T12. Alex Steeves
Also smol is NCAA free agent pickup Alex Steeves, who has zippy wheels and a low-maintenance game. He jumped from unknown and unranked to nearly top 10 (more of an indictment against the pipeline). He's older than most on this list but still in the zone where positive developments can occur (e.g. Trevor Moore). He started the season getting lots of offensive touches, and then transitioned to the bottom half of the roster in the second half: a sign the front office has earmarked him for filling an NHL role down the road.
herman
Well-known member
PPP:
11. Joey Anderson
I tend to forget about him when looking at Marlie grad potentials, but he had a pretty good season with the Marlies last year and is not likely to slip through waivers again. If he makes it to the Leafs, it'll be as a role player. Fortunately he has the personality and skillset for it. In front of him is Aube-Kubel, Wayne Simmonds, and to a different degree: Nick Robertson, Alex Steeves (both waiver-exempt). This is his moment to make it here, or settle down in Winnipeg or something.
11. Joey Anderson
I tend to forget about him when looking at Marlie grad potentials, but he had a pretty good season with the Marlies last year and is not likely to slip through waivers again. If he makes it to the Leafs, it'll be as a role player. Fortunately he has the personality and skillset for it. In front of him is Aube-Kubel, Wayne Simmonds, and to a different degree: Nick Robertson, Alex Steeves (both waiver-exempt). This is his moment to make it here, or settle down in Winnipeg or something.
Bender said:
Devils probably really wish they got more from him.
herman
Well-known member
PPP:
10. Pontus Holmberg
I think my evaluation of Holmberg is already known, so I'll pull quote some salient points:
From Katya
If Robertson can't hang with the Tavares-Nylander pairing (since that looks to be the plan given the lack of other moves so far), I think Holmberg eventually takes it. A playmaking defensive third banana that has centre experience sounds like a really solid fit (I think Engvall gets first crack after Robertson).
10. Pontus Holmberg
I think my evaluation of Holmberg is already known, so I'll pull quote some salient points:
From Katya
If Robertson can't hang with the Tavares-Nylander pairing (since that looks to be the plan given the lack of other moves so far), I think Holmberg eventually takes it. A playmaking defensive third banana that has centre experience sounds like a really solid fit (I think Engvall gets first crack after Robertson).
herman
Well-known member
PPP: 9. Fraser Minten
This is a solid debut for our newest top pick. Sort of like Knies, his floor is obviously NHL level already, is a bigger body (relatively speaking to Dubas draftees) that can also play hard off the puck and help get it back. His numbers don't really pop off the page until you take into consideration that he played limited but hard minutes with minimal offensive opportunities until late season. Like Niemela (a young player asked to play safe on a good team), I think there is untapped offense as well.
He has a shot at the Memorial Cup this season as the Blazers are hosting, so we'll hopefully see more of him.
https://twitter.com/ByronMBader/status/1545428714275557376
https://twitter.com/TopDownHockey/status/1545427477119606787
This is a solid debut for our newest top pick. Sort of like Knies, his floor is obviously NHL level already, is a bigger body (relatively speaking to Dubas draftees) that can also play hard off the puck and help get it back. His numbers don't really pop off the page until you take into consideration that he played limited but hard minutes with minimal offensive opportunities until late season. Like Niemela (a young player asked to play safe on a good team), I think there is untapped offense as well.
He has a shot at the Memorial Cup this season as the Blazers are hosting, so we'll hopefully see more of him.
https://twitter.com/ByronMBader/status/1545428714275557376
https://twitter.com/TopDownHockey/status/1545427477119606787