Ryan O'Reilly

[princedpw]

I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

I don't know that I agree that Kadri is a useless player if he's not scoring. He'll probably never get a Selke nod but I think he's proving to be pretty feisty, able to throw a hit and can carry the play.

Kadri also has one of the best corsi ratings on the Leafs, if you believe in that stat unlike Don Cherry.

It appears to be a useful stat but it is just one stat and needs to be taken in context.  If Kadri has a better Corsi than Kessel, the conclusion I would draw is that he's probably playing against vastly weaker opposition and/or starts his shifts more often in the Ozone or neutral zone.

 

[Redleaf]

I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

Do we really know what Kadri's "ceiling" is yet?  It's the first season he's been given a full time role.  He's averaging 14 min/game and is almost on a point a game pace right now.  O'Reilly last year averaged 19 min/game and had 55 points in 81 games.

Now i'm not suggesting Kadri is a bona-fide 70-80 point player, but we just don't know that yet.  I'd be hesitant to trade him away when he's just starting to find his role.

That's the nature of the business though. I'm sure Colorado would be hesitant to trade away O'Reilly without knowing his true ceiling too. The point is O'Reilly is more than a one dimensional player, whereas Kadri really isn't. If he isn't producing points, he's taking up someone else's spot in the lineup.

If you believe O'Reilly's offensive game is even close to that of Kadri's, which at this point in time it is, than 9 times out of 10 I make that trade.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It appears to be a useful stat but it is just one stat and needs to be taken in context.  If Kadri has a better Corsi than Kessel, the conclusion I would draw is that he's probably playing against vastly weaker opposition and/or starts his shifts more often in the Ozone or neutral zone.

There are stats that keep track of those things as well. Their Quality of Competition stat is nearly identical, and Kessel starts his shifts in the offensive zone just a tad more than Kadri does.

 

[Redleaf]

Hey Mirtle. Quit stealing ideas from this site.

Mirtle's tweet...

Here's an interesting debate for Leafs fans: Would you move Kadri for O'Reilly? @jamiemclennan29 and @HayesTSN were getting into this today.

 

[Bender]

I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

That is a heavily biased opinion based on all the information we have. I can't fathom giving up a similar player statistically and thensome for someone who has proven very little at the NHL level. I can't understand this move - why not deal from a position of strength than a position of utter weakness? Regardless, I think this is a sideways move at best and another miscalculated move of prospects and picks at worst.

 

[bustaheims]

I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

I wouldn't. I'm fairly confident in saying that the difference between Kadri and O'Reilly's offensive abilities is larger than the difference in their defensive abilities.

 

[Courtnall]

I think it would be ridiculous to not pursue o'reilly. I don't think we should trade Kadri, but why not a defencemen? Having Kadri and o'reilly up the middle would set us up nicely for years to come.

 

[Hampreacher]

I do not think I would deal Kadri for OReilly but say Graboski and Gunnerson.

 

[princedpw]

It appears to be a useful stat but it is just one stat and needs to be taken in context.  If Kadri has a better Corsi than Kessel, the conclusion I would draw is that he's probably playing against vastly weaker opposition and/or starts his shifts more often in the Ozone or neutral zone.

There are stats that keep track of those things as well. Their Quality of Competition stat is nearly identical, and Kessel starts his shifts in the offensive zone just a tad more than Kadri does.

(Yes, I'm aware of other such stats.). Count me as shocked that they have the same quality of competition.  I'd have to look in to that to find out what I think of that ... feel free to post more details. Is it really the case that opposing teams are intentionally putting up the same talent against Kadri as Kessel?  Kadri's line cant possibly be viewed around the league as the same kind of consistent offensive threat as Kessel's. ... But I'd be interested to know why the numbers show that or what is going on.

 

[Bender]

I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

I wouldn't. I'm fairly confident in saying that the difference between Kadri and O'Reilly's offensive abilities is larger than the difference in their defensive abilities.

I'm not prepared to give up on Nazem just because O'Reilly had one hot year. Who knows if he'll be able to recreate that again. Besides, I think Mirtle is overstating the differences in metrics. I'm looking through Kadri this year vs. O'Reilly last year and I honestly cannot see a big difference between them. This is a sideways move at best.

O'Reilly: http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&f1=2011_s&f2=5v5&f5=COL&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

Kadri: http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f5=TOR&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

 

[Bender]

Can anyone read these stats? Mirtle basically said that O'Reilly was much better two way and played against much better opposition. He said Corsi out of context proves nothing, but don't a lot of those corsi metrcis formulated to help produce a type of context?

*Edit: So O'Reilly appears to have been playing much of his time with Gabriel Landeskog. I have no reservation in my mind that this is a huge reason why O'Reilly did so well Offensively last year. Moreover, O'Reilly's relative Corsi, while high, is not amongst the highest on his team, which indicates quality of the player vs. the rest of the team.

Kadri's otoh, is at 20.8 this year, the highest on the team. His ice time per game is also more than 4mins less per game than O'Reilly. While O'Reilly faced the second highest quality of competition, this is no doubt due to playing alongside Gabriel Landeskog. While Matt Frattin is nice, he doesn't have a Landeskog to play with.

So blah blah blah, context Mirtle, you're obviously not giving any credit here to Kadri. I wouldn't say O'Reilly is far and away the better player. He's strong two-way, but I wouldn't let go of Kadri's offensive upside, who is playing as well as he is despite his linemates, not in spite of them. I think he'd do a lot better with Landeskog on his wing and I think it's a lot easier to teach two way play rather than offensive instincts, where I think Kadri has O'Reilly beat - I believe Kadri's upside is higher.


Anyone else want to take a crack at analyzing the numbers?

 

[Kin]

Anyone else want to take a crack at analyzing the numbers?

Not to get off into too much of a tangent regarding the use of advanced metrics in hockey but I think that the ones that are out there aren't anywhere near good enough or definitive enough to draw solid conclusions from them. For the most part none of them do the one thing that is problematic about hockey numbers to begin with, and that's try to identify individual play in a game with so many moving parts and outside factors. Things like Corsi measure results and then assume there's a sort of truth in the aggregate when applying them to individuals. That may be true in cases but ultimately that's the same argument that's made by people who rely heavily on +/- to determine defense.

I appreciate the instinct to try and pin down contributions in hockey better with numbers but I don't think that we're anywhere close to having anything that should be taken seriously in a meaningful discussion about the relative worths of players.

 

[Leafaholic99]

I do not think I would deal Kadri for OReilly but say Graboski and Gunnerson.

I agree, why trade Kadri for a sideways move most likely, plus Kadri should company a huge pay raise in his next contract.

 

[Redleaf]

I do not think I would deal Kadri for OReilly but say Graboski and Gunnerson.

I agree, why trade Kadri for a sideways move most likely, plus Kadri should company a huge pay raise in his next contract.

I agree too. I'd trade MacCarthur straight up for O'Reilly if I could. Thing is, I very much doubt Colorado would make either of those trades. If you follow/believe the reports, they want Kadri or Gardiner.

 

[Peter D.]

I'd be very leery in dealing Kadri or Gardiner (especially the latter) for O'Reilly.

He had a very good season as a 21-year old, but when I think of future #1 centers, he doesn't jump to mind.

 

[moon111]

A team with John Mitchell being 3rd in points is going to be giving ice-time to anyone without them actually having earned it. 

 

[Britishbulldog]

O'Reilly has already refused to consider a $3.5 MIL a year contract after only 1 good year. How does Subban get hammered and this guy is being clamored after?

Kyle Turris signed a 5 year $3.5 MIL contract that will kick in next year and is comparable to Kadri as well.  Turris cost Rundblad (currently in the AHL!!) and a 2nd pick. 

I am very leery of trading almost anyone for a kid that thinks that much of himself after only ONE GOOD YEAR!

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

O'Reilly has already refused to consider a $3.5 MIL a year contract after only 1 good year. How does Subban get hammered and this guy is being clamored after?

Kyle Turris signed a 5 year $3.5 MIL contract that will kick in next year and is comparable to Kadri as well.  Turris cost Rundblad (currently in the AHL!!) and a 2nd pick. 

I am very leery of trading almost anyone for a kid that thinks that much of himself after only ONE GOOD YEAR!

+1

 

[Jalili]

I wonder if this whole issue isn't actually completely a money thing but rather his way of forcing a trade out of Colorado.

It might be that he sees himself stuck behind Duchene/Stastny, or it could be that he's ticked off that he got passed over for promotion to a younger guy and a rookie. I don't know if those are valid reasons but it's a strange situation.

Just seems as if there's something out of sight that went on between his side and management.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Can anyone read these stats? Mirtle basically said that O'Reilly was much better two way and played against much better opposition. He said Corsi out of context proves nothing, but don't a lot of those corsi metrcis formulated to help produce a type of context?

*Edit: So O'Reilly appears to have been playing much of his time with Gabriel Landeskog. I have no reservation in my mind that this is a huge reason why O'Reilly did so well Offensively last year. Moreover, O'Reilly's relative Corsi, while high, is not amongst the highest on his team, which indicates quality of the player vs. the rest of the team.

Kadri's otoh, is at 20.8 this year, the highest on the team. His ice time per game is also more than 4mins less per game than O'Reilly. While O'Reilly faced the second highest quality of competition, this is no doubt due to playing alongside Gabriel Landeskog. While Matt Frattin is nice, he doesn't have a Landeskog to play with.

So blah blah blah, context Mirtle, you're obviously not giving any credit here to Kadri. I wouldn't say O'Reilly is far and away the better player. He's strong two-way, but I wouldn't let go of Kadri's offensive upside, who is playing as well as he is despite his linemates, not in spite of them. I think he'd do a lot better with Landeskog on his wing and I think it's a lot easier to teach two way play rather than offensive instincts, where I think Kadri has O'Reilly beat - I believe Kadri's upside is higher.


Anyone else want to take a crack at analyzing the numbers?

Anything I write will just be repeating what others have written, but this makes a pretty good case for O'Reilly's worth (especially the PPG comparables at his age):

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/2/4/3938826/why-the-maple-leafs-should-offer-sheet-ryan-oreilly

I also find the WOWY stat interesting:

The one forward in the past two years whose Corsi % was actually better away from O'Reilly was, as you may have guessed, Gabriel Landeskog. Only one defenceman in two years had a worse Corsi % with O'Reilly than away from him, and that was Scott Hannan, who only just barely made the cut-off for this list at 105 minutes. It's pretty clear that O'Reilly is a player who drives play and makes those around him better. A play-making centre who can put up points while driving play and locking down the defensive side of the game? Sounds like exactly what the Leafs need on the Phil Kessel line.