The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[bustaheims]

If I come to the table with $5 and try and buy a $500 item, I guess it is trying.  AA continues to toe the Beeston/management line on contract duration and how much they are willing to spend on free agents. 

It's great that AA calls up agents but if he isn't going there with a price remotely close to the asking price, it's not really all that effective.

I think it's more that they're trying to get a $20 item for $18, and then someone comes around and offers $35 for it. They're trying to get guys at a little lower than what they're asking for, and having teams like the Yankees coming in and overpaying to get what they want. The contract this is more an issue than the dollars, but, even then, some of the guys they've targeted have signed deals that have been for 5 years or less.

 

[Kin]

Should he really be getting into a bidding war with the Yanks though?

No, but I think the idea that the Yankees are overpaying this off-season is a little off the mark. They've been able to sign a bunch of different guys to big free agent deals but individually I think they all just represent the cost of doing business now when it comes to premium or even semi-premium free agents. Tanaka got 22 million which strikes some as #1 money, I suppose, but Kershaw, an actual #1, got 31.5 million per and some people think he could have got more. Some of the numbers on a long term Mike Trout extension that people are throwing around are up in the high 30's.

Considering that Robinson Cano is someone the Yankees were willing to let go because they didn't want to meet his price, I wouldn't say that a bidding war with the Yankees was futile because they'd match any price.

 

[L K]

AA continues to toe the Beeston/management line on contract duration and how much they are willing to spend on free agents. 

If I come to the table with $5 and try and buy a $500 item, I guess it is trying. 

It's great that AA calls up agents but if he isn't going there with a price remotely close to the asking price, it's not really all that effective.

I think it's more that they're trying to get a $20 item for $18, and then someone comes around and offers $35 for it. They're trying to get guys at a little lower than what they're asking for, and having teams like the Yankees coming in and overpaying to get what they want. The contract this is more an issue than the dollars, but, even then, some of the guys they've targeted have signed deals that have been for 5 years or less.

Even still, if you are only going to sign guys who are willing to sign for below market cost, well, you damn well better be the Oakland Athletics when you do it.  The Jays dont' exactly have a great record of bringing in the right pieces over the last 20 years.

Bottom line a 70 win team is being expected to compete in a division with the Yankees improving their rotation, the Orioles improving their rotation, the Red Sox winning the World Series and Tampa just owning the Jays in general.

Standing pat on a team that wasn't good last year is going to blow up on this team.  Bautista has shown evidence of decline, Reyes isn't exactly the healthiest of players and the turf isn't going to help that.  Lawrie hasn't shown that next step in his development.  We are still playing Adam Lind as an everyday player when he can't hit lefties. 

Our bench consists of Sierra, Gose, Izturis and Thole...possibly Brent Morel too.

Last year for the Jays in the American League
AVG (10th), OBP (8th), SLG (7th), OPS (9th), XBH (7th), HR (4th), RBI (9th), SB (6th)

Starters
ERA (14th), IP (14th), ER (14th), HR (13th), Opp AVG (13th), WHIP (13th), SB (5th)

So to improve a dreadful starting pitcher we are going to rely on a guy with two Tommy John surgeries  and a career stat line of a 5.37 ERA and 1.683 WHIP (79 ERA+) with a career high of 78.2 IP.  Josh Johnson's trainwreck of a season was a 6.60 ERA and 1.660 WHIP, so I guess that's an improvement?

The other guy is Drew Hutchinson coming off a major injury and with 58.1 IP of MLB experience on his arm.    He had a a 5 games stretch of games where he pitched 4 he gave up 1 or fewer runs 6.5 IP average.  Other than that he had a 4.60 ERA 1.347 WHIP and a 92 ERA+.  If he can pitch to his brief career numbers that's fine as a bottom of the rotation guy, but that is asking a lot for a guy to produce anything with such a short track record.

The Jays have a lot of money invested in their starting order and top of the rotation and it isn't a young collection of players. The farm system has some young arms that are a couple of years out but are going to come after Bautista's prime has come and gone.  The time to win with this group is now, and just waiving the white flag at the Yankees isn't going to accomplish anything.

 

[Andy007]

Well I do think there's a lack of trying. As Nik points out, are they really going to push their hardest for mediocre pitchers that are surely going to be overpaid due to a mediocre class of free agents? That sounds an awful lot like signing David Clarkson because he's the best out there.

I really don't. The Jays were in on the bidding for Tanaka, they were in talks with Jimenez. They had discussions with McCann. They were in trade negotiations for Kinsler and Fister. They're in the running for Santana. They've been involved with a lot of the high profile players that have moved this summer, they just couldn't seal the deal on any of them.

If I come to the table with $5 and try and buy a $500 item, I guess it is trying.  AA continues to toe the Beeston/management line on contract duration and how much they are willing to spend on free agents. 

It's great that AA calls up agents but if he isn't going there with a price remotely close to the asking price, it's not really all that effective.

This has absolutely been happening and the smoke and mirror show somewhow seems to placate alot of fans. I have been a big critic of AA for a few years now and it's becoming increasingly harder for people to make excuses for him (not that these people have stopped, mind you).

At the winter meetings there was an article that stated how other GM's are tuning AA out because he does exactly what you stated; he wastes time by fishing about various players and their value, trying to lowball the teams and ultimately not offering much of substance. All it does is provide an excuse; he can say that they tried to get this guy or sign this guy and it isn't technically a lie.

 

[Champ Kind]

They were in trade negotiations for Kinsler and Fister...

They were?

(From the Toronto Star)

On why the Jays weren?t involved in the Doug Fister trade
Fister, who owns a 3.53 career ERA over five seasons, was dealt by Detroit to Washington on Monday for a package of underwhelming players. The 29-year-old right-hander would seem to be a great fit for the Jays, whose bullpen depth should have been attractive to Detroit. Anthopoulos agreed, but the Tigers were apparently not interested in anything the Jays could offer.
?I don?t think we lined up with Detroit,? he said. ?(Tigers GM) Dave Dombrowski has got a good as track record as a GM as you?re going to find; it seems there was just a better fit with the Nationals than there was with us ? you can?t force something that isn?t there.?

 

[Champ Kind]

Are they crying poor? I've seen nothing to say that Jays are not attempting to spend more cash.

Neither have I. I certainly haven't gotten the sense that the lack of activity has been for lack of trying, just lack of success in their various pursuits.

Well I do think there's a lack of trying. As Nik points out, are they really going to push their hardest for mediocre pitchers that are surely going to be overpaid due to a mediocre class of free agents? That sounds an awful lot like signing David Clarkson because he's the best out there.

For me, the difference is simple: with the Clarkson example (which, for the record, I actually still like..sort of), the team who signed him is very young, and especially has a youthful core that projects to be be entering their prime over the next 5-7 years. 

With the Jays, the opposite is true.  Despite the lack of success recently, the core of this team is relatively old.  Bautista is 33 and entering the penultimate year iof his contract.  Encarnacion is around 30 and going into the second year of a 4 year contract that, clearly, is very team friendly.  Dickey and Beurhle are in their late 30s.  Reyes is fantastic but will be 31.  The time for the Jays to win is now.  If not this year, maybe next, but then the house of cards topples over.  So, for me, you overpay to get pitching, you overpay to get a second baseman.  If not, there is no point to the Marlins trade, the Dickey trade, and the Cabrera signing, which was to this point one of the few reasons to show any optimism in recent memory.

 

[Kin]

Starters
ERA (14th), IP (14th), ER (14th), HR (13th), Opp AVG (13th), WHIP (13th), SB (5th)

But I think that sort of speaks to the reason why going out and spending a ton of money in free agency this year never made sense. There just wasn't the sort of players available who were good bets to make a real dent in that. Jimenez had his first sub 4.50 ERA season this year in four years. Ervin Santana has a career 4.19 ERA. AJ Burnett? Bronson Arroyo? We're talking about 3-4 guys at best.

I know that the guys that the Jays are relying on to improve the rotation are longshots but, realistically, the only way the Jays will improve that rotation are by hitting the longshots. I know it's a tough pill to swallow after last season's failures but last season's failures(and the assets spent on them) were pretty significant and don't have quick fixes or at least the kind of players that could fix things quickly weren't free agents this year.

 

[bustaheims]

They were in trade negotiations for Kinsler and Fister...

They were?

(From the Toronto Star)

On why the Jays weren?t involved in the Doug Fister trade
Fister, who owns a 3.53 career ERA over five seasons, was dealt by Detroit to Washington on Monday for a package of underwhelming players. The 29-year-old right-hander would seem to be a great fit for the Jays, whose bullpen depth should have been attractive to Detroit. Anthopoulos agreed, but the Tigers were apparently not interested in anything the Jays could offer.
?I don?t think we lined up with Detroit,? he said. ?(Tigers GM) Dave Dombrowski has got a good as track record as a GM as you?re going to find; it seems there was just a better fit with the Nationals than there was with us ? you can?t force something that isn?t there.?

They were, in that they had discussions with Detroit about him. Obviously, they didn't get very far, but, as that snippet you posted clearly illustrates, they made a real attempt to try to find a trade there. There just wasn't a match.

 

[L K]

Starters
ERA (14th), IP (14th), ER (14th), HR (13th), Opp AVG (13th), WHIP (13th), SB (5th)

But I think that sort of speaks to the reason why going out and spending a ton of money in free agency this year never made sense. There just wasn't the sort of players available who were good bets to make a real dent in that. Jimenez had his first sub 4.50 ERA season this year in four years. Ervin Santana has a career 4.19 ERA. AJ Burnett? Bronson Arroyo? We're talking about 3-4 guys at best.

I know that the guys that the Jays are relying on to improve the rotation are longshots but, realistically, the only way the Jays will improve that rotation are by hitting the longshots. I know it's a tough pill to swallow after last season's failures but last season's failures(and the assets spent on them) were pretty significant and don't have quick fixes or at least the kind of players that could fix things quickly weren't free agents this year.

I guess I just don't see them as mutually exclusive goals.  Adding Santana to the rotation doesn't prohibit Drabek being better than JA Happ.  It just necessitates that he be better than JA Happ.  Hutchinson making the rotation only requires him to be good enough to do so.  Inevitably Morrow is going to get injured for the 100th time in his career.  RA Dickey and Buehrle are probably locks to throw a billion innings this year, but that's it.

The rotation with the addition of a starter (who admittedly is more likely to be a 2B/3 kind of starter at best) could still be Dickey - Morrow - Starter - Buehrle - Drabek/Hutchinson.  Then if someone goes down to injury you actually have something worthwhile to call up in place of giving Chien Ming Wang or Todd Redmond disaster starts.  Two years in a row the Jays relied on a reliever who couldn't pitch much past 5 innings to be a core piece of their rotation.  Rogers did an admirable job but that lack of starting depth is a real problem.

If the reason for not signing guys is that the team isn't good enough to compete without miracles, that's fine, but bottom line I think it comes down to the Jays unwillingness to spend and that has a lot more to do with it than anything else.  If you aren't going to compete with the roster this year, they should have just traded guys away to restock the cupboards for when they might be good in 5 years.  Their core isn't exactly young.

 

[Kin]

I guess I just don't see them as mutually exclusive goals.  Adding Santana to the rotation doesn't prohibit Drabek being better than JA Happ.  It just necessitates that he be better than JA Happ.  Hutchinson making the rotation only requires him to be good enough to do so.  Inevitably Morrow is going to get injured for the 100th time in his career.  RA Dickey and Buehrle are probably locks to throw a billion innings this year, but that's it.

My point wasn't so much that they're mutually exclusive, just that the Jays needed to be realistic about what signing one of those FA pitchers meant for them in the long and short terms. If adding a 2 or 3 win pitcher like Santana takes the teams from having the worst rotation in the division to the second worst or takes them from being a 74-76 win team to a 78-80 win team is there a real reason to add him?

Which isn't to say I don't think the Jays should sign him, just that I think that because of the reality of what happened last year it has to be a deal that makes sense independent of the Jays' current outlook for this season.

The rotation with the addition of a starter (who admittedly is more likely to be a 2B/3 kind of starter at best) could still be Dickey - Morrow - Starter - Buehrle - Drabek/Hutchinson. Then if someone goes down to injury you actually have something worthwhile to call up in place of giving Chien Ming Wang or Todd Redmond disaster starts.

For what it's worth I think the team has that already in the form of Stroman if that rotation includes Happ or both Hutchinson/Drabek.

If the reason for not signing guys is that the team isn't good enough to compete without miracles, that's fine, but bottom line I think it comes down to the Jays unwillingness to spend and that has a lot more to do with it than anything else.  If you aren't going to compete with the roster this year, they should have just traded guys away to restock the cupboards for when they might be good in 5 years.  Their core isn't exactly young.

Which, honestly, I think we'll see this summer if the team isn't in a realistic playoff position. I think they're willing to give AA's Miami Blue Jays gambit two years but if the team is below .500 in July I'd start shopping Dickey, Batista and Buerhle pretty hard.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Reports that Ervin Santana is willing to take a 1-year deal and that the Jays are one of the teams going after him.  Rumour is he is seeking a 1 year, $14 million contract.

 

[Andy007]

The Jays were previously said to not be interested in Santana, but maybe that was just in regards to the 4yr 50million deal he was looking for (which, imo, isn't that unreasonable).

It's still going to cost T.O the the 50th overall pick to sign him though.

 

[Darryl]

This is shaping up to be a very long season.

 

[Derk]

This is shaping up to be a very long season.

Put a positive spin on it - maybe they will play ahead of expectations and finish as high as 4th in the division!  ;D

 

[Corn Flake]

Reports that Ervin Santana is willing to take a 1-year deal and that the Jays are one of the teams going after him.  Rumour is he is seeking a 1 year, $14 million contract.

I almost feel like they are in this only to keep him away from the Orioles.

 

[Andy007]

Reports that Ervin Santana is willing to take a 1-year deal and that the Jays are one of the teams going after him.  Rumour is he is seeking a 1 year, $14 million contract.

I almost feel like they are in this only to keep him away from the Orioles.

I doubt it; Baltimore isn't going to prevent Toronto from finishing last in the division.

 

[pmrules]

Now its reported that Santana has signed with the Braves. 

AA says he preferred National League.  I say he prefers to play for a team that gives him the best chance to cash in next year on a LT deal.  Playing in the last place team in the AL East (hardest division in baseball...yada yada yada) for 1 season is not going to give him the best chance to do that.

 

[bustaheims]

Now its reported that Santana has signed with the Braves. 

AA says he preferred National League.  I say he prefers to play for a team that gives him the best chance to cash in next year on a LT deal.  Playing in the last place team in the AL East (hardest division in baseball...yada yada yada) for 1 season is not going to give him the best chance to do that.

He did sign basically the exact same deal the Jays were offering him, so, I imagine there's a fair amount of truth to AA's assessment of the situation.

 

[Champ Kind]

Now its reported that Santana has signed with the Braves. 

AA says he preferred National League.  I say he prefers to play for a team that gives him the best chance to cash in next year on a LT deal.  Playing in the last place team in the AL East (hardest division in baseball...yada yada yada) for 1 season is not going to give him the best chance to do that.

He did sign basically the exact same deal the Jays were offering him, so, I imagine there's a fair amount of truth to AA's assessment of the situation.

On Jeff Blair this am, AA strongly insinuated that the Jays thought they had a deal done with Santana on Saturday.  He seemed to be biting hard on his upper lip, with the implication that Santana had reneged once the Braves' starting staff was hit with injuries.

 

[L K]

Now its reported that Santana has signed with the Braves. 

AA says he preferred National League.  I say he prefers to play for a team that gives him the best chance to cash in next year on a LT deal.  Playing in the last place team in the AL East (hardest division in baseball...yada yada yada) for 1 season is not going to give him the best chance to do that.

He did sign basically the exact same deal the Jays were offering him, so, I imagine there's a fair amount of truth to AA's assessment of the situation.

On Jeff Blair this am, AA strongly insinuated that the Jays thought they had a deal done with Santana on Saturday.  He seemed to be biting hard on his upper lip, with the implication that Santana had reneged once the Braves' starting staff was hit with injuries.

It could also be that the Jays spent the entire seasons saying Santana isn't worth it and that internal choices were better.  The Braves got an injury and came looking to genuinely acquire his services.  I know that certainly would factor into any decision making I would make.  On one side the Jays didn't really want him (well AA at least, it seems like the Latin guys on the team certainly did), on the other, a playoff team comes knocking once they have a slot in their rotation and say they want you. 

AA can complain and shrug his shoulders, but he didn't bother to improve the rotation all offseason when he had the chance.  Eventually you wait things out too long, and now the Jays get to watch Drabek and Morrow walk 200 batters.