The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[GhostofPotvin29]

Part of me sees this team as not that different from the one with the huge expectations going into last season.  Now that the expectations are no longer there an if they get a bit luckier healthwise, I think they can surprise.

 

[pmrules]

Part of me sees this team as not that different from the one with the huge expectations going into last season.  Now that the expectations are no longer there an if they get a bit luckier healthwise, I think they can surprise.

I'm hoping for this.  Low to No expectations.

Also, I think this is the year of addition by subtraction.  No JP Arencibia and his untimely strikeouts, no emilio bonifacio who can't turn a DP, and no Josh Johnson.

Other things can help as well.  A healthy Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera and Brendan Morrow.  An infield defense of Lawrie/Reyes/Goins should be fantastic to watch.

Long shot -  A return to 2011/2012ish form by Ricky Romero.  I'm not holding my breath for that, but apparently he looks good in spring training - can anyone confirm who has been paying attention more closely than I?

 

[pmrules]

Now its reported that Santana has signed with the Braves. 

AA says he preferred National League.  I say he prefers to play for a team that gives him the best chance to cash in next year on a LT deal.  Playing in the last place team in the AL East (hardest division in baseball...yada yada yada) for 1 season is not going to give him the best chance to do that.

He did sign basically the exact same deal the Jays were offering him, so, I imagine there's a fair amount of truth to AA's assessment of the situation.

I think its both - i think its about his next contract - and the NL is the best to boost stats (and definitely ain't the last place team in the AL East).

 

[L K]

Part of me sees this team as not that different from the one with the huge expectations going into last season.  Now that the expectations are no longer there an if they get a bit luckier healthwise, I think they can surprise.

I want to feel that way, I do.  But that team was getting a Josh Johnson with a <3.00 ERA, averaging 200 strikeouts per year with a 3.5:1 K to BB ratio (2009-2012).  Aside from a major injury he was a guy who was also shown to be capable of throwing high quality seasons with 180+ innings.

That's a huge loss to the rotation if we are basing the team on hypotheticals.  Obviously he was awful in Toronto so actually replacing him isn't hard.

 

[bustaheims]

Part of me sees this team as not that different from the one with the huge expectations going into last season.  Now that the expectations are no longer there an if they get a bit luckier healthwise, I think they can surprise.

There's a lot of ifs that have to happen for it to work out, but, yeah, they could be better than we're expecting. A few key arms staying healthy and pitching like they did prior to 2013 would be a great help. A couple of the younger arms breaking through would be big, as well.

 

[Kin]

He did sign basically the exact same deal the Jays were offering him, so, I imagine there's a fair amount of truth to AA's assessment of the situation.

Being as it's been reported that he turned down a three year offer from the Twins it doesn't really seem as though his decision not to sign in Toronto just boiled down to a preference for the National League. Clearly there's something about the situation in Atlanta, and I think their playoff potential is probably a big part of it, that trumped better offers.

Regardless, it can't really be said that the Jays really wanted him and I'm sure that was part of the equation too. 

 

[bustaheims]

Being as it's been reported that he turned down a three year offer from the Twins it doesn't really seem as though his decision not to sign in Toronto just boiled down to a preference for the National League. Clearly there's something about the situation in Atlanta, and I think their playoff potential is probably a big part of it, that trumped better offers.

Regardless, it can't really be said that the Jays really wanted him and I'm sure that was part of the equation too.

The 3 year deal from Minnesota was rumoured to be in the $27M-$30M range, so, the motivation to take the Braves' 1 year offer instead was largely financial. There's some risk, but, if he has a decent season in Atlanta, he's almost certain to be able to earn more over the next 3 season than the Twins offered him.

 

[Kin]

The 3 year deal from Minnesota was rumoured to be in the $27M-$30M range, so, the motivation to take the Braves' 1 year offer instead was largely financial. There's some risk, but, if he has a decent season in Atlanta, he's almost certain to be able to earn more over the next 3 season than the Twins offered him.

If he's healthy and doesn't stumble he very well may(although "if a pitcher doesn't get injured" is always a pretty big if) but the point remains that there were other teams who figure not to be contenders who were making offers that carried more security than the Jays and there were better teams making the same offer, in which case I think it's fair to say that Santana choosing to sign in Toronto would have been a pretty significant longshot. If you're in the position the Jays are in you probably need to have the best offer to sign Santana and they didn't by just about any concrete measurement.

Which, personally, I have no problem with. If the Jays really wanted him, they'd have gone after him all year and offered him something better. Nobody's going to sign with what figures to be a last place team on a one year flyer unless they have no other real options. Santana wasn't likely to be a difference maker so, ultimately, it's no big loss.

 

[Kin]

I want to feel that way, I do.  But that team was getting a Josh Johnson with a <3.00 ERA, averaging 200 strikeouts per year with a 3.5:1 K to BB ratio (2009-2012).  Aside from a major injury he was a guy who was also shown to be capable of throwing high quality seasons with 180+ innings.

That's a huge loss to the rotation if we are basing the team on hypotheticals.  Obviously he was awful in Toronto so actually replacing him isn't hard.

Not to mention that a lot of that optimism did come from the idea that the Jays could potentially have really above average players at all 9 positions. Now I think the Jays have basically given up on that behind the plate and at second and I think there are some serious questions about what they can get out of Cabrera, Lawrie and, from a health perspective, Batista.

But also, it's hard not to look at the AL East and see that the other four teams have improved, pretty significantly in some cases, while the Jays have taken a step backwards.

 

[Andy007]

Part of me sees this team as not that different from the one with the huge expectations going into last season.  Now that the expectations are no longer there an if they get a bit luckier healthwise, I think they can surprise.

The starting rotation is one of the worst in the league. The bench is also absolutely awful (again). There is barely any depth on this team and the few guys they do have who should be depth players (I'm talking starting in the minors and gaining experience/spot starters taking over in the event of excess of injuries) are all being considered for a #4 and #5 starting rotation MLB slot. I really can't figure out how AA went from "We need to add at least 1 or 2 pitchers to the starting rotation" to adding absolutely no one.

I'm not sure expectations had much to do with anything last year. That team was good, with a few gaping holes and a huge amount of flaws. This team is slightly worse. Taking away expectations won't vault this team anywhere near the wild card.

So basically what I'm saying is I disagree   But I would be more than happy to be proven wrong.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

How is this team slightly worse than last season's?  If anything it's equal, but probably better if you're getting a non-tumour-on-his-spine Cabrera, a Jose Reyes who can actually steal bases again and have some range back, a full season of Lawrie/Bautista (I'm not going to guess at whether they will miss significant time or not).  Plus EE, getting rid of JPA's AB's is addition by subtraction.  Goins, even if he is just replacement level at the plate, is an upgrade and likely a big upgrade defensively.

Their offense has the potential to be one of the best.  Obviously the starting pitching is a big question mark, but I'd be shocked if it was worse than last season where they used something like 14 pitchers.  I don't think they have such bad luck again this season, but who knows.

 

[Kin]

How is this team slightly worse than last season's?

To fairly address that question I don't think you can compare the way certain players did fail last year with the way you think players will succeed this year.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

How is this team slightly worse than last season's?

To fairly address that question I don't think you can compare the way certain players did fail last year with the way you think players will succeed this year.

I actually think it's really hard to tell how the team will do.  I could see an argument for them going in either direction.

 

[Kin]

I actually think it's really hard to tell how the team will do.  I could see an argument for them going in either direction.

I think there's some truth to that because the rotation is such a question mark but looking at individual projections it's really hard to see how this team wins more than 80 or so games.

 

[Corn Flake]

How is this team slightly worse than last season's?

IMO:

Overall, they need some bloody good luck with injuries for once.  Shaky parts of the team were made just that much worse by them.

Defense should be much improved after the complete gong show at they had at 2b for the first 4 months. Reyes/Goins as the everyday middle infield brings hope.

Offense will be all around good to very good, plus the subtraction of JPA can be nothing but helpful.  Will see if the situational hitting improves overall, which would take the offense up another level.

Bullpen should be dominant again as long as they aren't overused and run out of gas towards the end like last year.

Starting pitching remains the big worry. The positive right now is that there are a ton of arms healthy (so far) and competing for the 3 open jobs.  It should mean they can take the 3 best out of camp to start the season but have plenty of backups at AAA to bring up if any of those 3 falter.

But like you said, who knows.. could go either way. I'm not really holding out a lot of hope. Will sit back and watch and see how things go.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

How is this team slightly worse than last season's?

IMO:

Overall, they need some bloody good luck with injuries for once.  Shaky parts of the team were made just that much worse by them.

Defense should be much improved after the complete gong show at they had at 2b for the first 4 months. Reyes/Goins as the everyday middle infield brings hope.

Offense will be all around good to very good, plus the subtraction of JPA can be nothing but helpful.  Will see if the situational hitting improves overall, which would take the offense up another level.

Bullpen should be dominant again as long as they aren't overused and run out of gas towards the end like last year.

Starting pitching remains the big worry. The positive right now is that there are a ton of arms healthy (so far) and competing for the 3 open jobs.  It should mean they can take the 3 best out of camp to start the season but have plenty of backups at AAA to bring up if any of those 3 falter.

But like you said, who knows.. could go either way. I'm not really holding out a lot of hope. Will sit back and watch and see how things go.

One year it will break positively right? Right!?

 

[Corn Flake]

One year it will break positively right? Right!?

You would think so, but boy oh boy.... this team.

 

[Andy007]

How is this team slightly worse than last season's?

IMO:

Overall, they need some bloody good luck with injuries for once.  Shaky parts of the team were made just that much worse by them.

Defense should be much improved after the complete gong show at they had at 2b for the first 4 months. Reyes/Goins as the everyday middle infield brings hope.

Offense will be all around good to very good, plus the subtraction of JPA can be nothing but helpful.  Will see if the situational hitting improves overall, which would take the offense up another level.

Bullpen should be dominant again as long as they aren't overused and run out of gas towards the end like last year.

Starting pitching remains the big worry. The positive right now is that there are a ton of arms healthy (so far) and competing for the 3 open jobs.  It should mean they can take the 3 best out of camp to start the season but have plenty of backups at AAA to bring up if any of those 3 falter.

But like you said, who knows.. could go either way. I'm not really holding out a lot of hope. Will sit back and watch and see how things go.

One year it will break positively right? Right!?

But I think the problem is that the Jays have absolutely no depth and have gone with abysmal benches for years now. So when all the injuries hit, which happens every year to almost every team, Toronto is unable to cope and we see seasons like..well..the last three years. For things to break positively everybody has to stay healthy and all the players have to play at or near their respective ceilings. I think we're going to have to wait for a looong time.

 

[Andy007]

How is this team slightly worse than last season's?

IMO:

Overall, they need some bloody good luck with injuries for once.  Shaky parts of the team were made just that much worse by them.

Defense should be much improved after the complete gong show at they had at 2b for the first 4 months. Reyes/Goins as the everyday middle infield brings hope.

Offense will be all around good to very good, plus the subtraction of JPA can be nothing but helpful.  Will see if the situational hitting improves overall, which would take the offense up another level.

Bullpen should be dominant again as long as they aren't overused and run out of gas towards the end like last year.

Starting pitching remains the big worry. The positive right now is that there are a ton of arms healthy (so far) and competing for the 3 open jobs.  It should mean they can take the 3 best out of camp to start the season but have plenty of backups at AAA to bring up if any of those 3 falter.

But like you said, who knows.. could go either way. I'm not really holding out a lot of hope. Will sit back and watch and see how things go.

These are mostly all arms who should be starting the season in the minors. Having quality depth is a key to success so when injuries hit, as they always do, you have some options you can bring up or move in from the bullpen. Drabek is no better than a minor leaguer right now; Hutchinson and Stroman have MLB talent but are ridiculously raw and unseasoned; Redmond is minor league fodder/depth and Rogers is a bullpen guy who should only be a spot starter if there are no other options. Oh and Happ is a #6 starter. I think it's a mistake to have any of those arms starting in the rotation.

Boy am I a debbie downer today  :-X

 

[bustaheims]

The thing is, the Jays have 5 guys who have put up some pretty good seasons at the MLB level. The problem is that, outside of Buerhle and Dickey, they've all only done so in one season.