The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[GhostofPotvin29]

How is this team slightly worse than last season's?

IMO:

Overall, they need some bloody good luck with injuries for once.  Shaky parts of the team were made just that much worse by them.

Defense should be much improved after the complete gong show at they had at 2b for the first 4 months. Reyes/Goins as the everyday middle infield brings hope.

Offense will be all around good to very good, plus the subtraction of JPA can be nothing but helpful.  Will see if the situational hitting improves overall, which would take the offense up another level.

Bullpen should be dominant again as long as they aren't overused and run out of gas towards the end like last year.

Starting pitching remains the big worry. The positive right now is that there are a ton of arms healthy (so far) and competing for the 3 open jobs.  It should mean they can take the 3 best out of camp to start the season but have plenty of backups at AAA to bring up if any of those 3 falter.

But like you said, who knows.. could go either way. I'm not really holding out a lot of hope. Will sit back and watch and see how things go.

One year it will break positively right? Right!?

But I think the problem is that the Jays have absolutely no depth and have gone with abysmal benches for years now. So when all the injuries hit, which happens every year to almost every team, Toronto is unable to cope and we see seasons like..well..the last three years. For things to break positively everybody has to stay healthy and all the players have to play at or near their respective ceilings. I think we're going to have to wait for a looong time.

You can have injuries, but the amount the Jays had last season was pretty ridiculous, even taking into account some of those guys' histories.  Not just that some got injured, but the sheer number of key players who got injured and many at the same time - not a likely thing to happen again, and not really something that happens to every team.  It really was a case of everything breaking poorly for them, so even with a bit more luck on their side the team should see an improvement.  Johnson's ERA was over 6.00 last season.  You could trot out a whole lot of average pitchers and probably not have them repeat those numbers.

Not saying they are going to be great, but a LOT of things went crazy bad last season, and if you can have that bad luck, you can have things go the other way too - look what happened in Boston.  A whole bunch of their key contributors to their World Series win were coming off bad (or even awful in some cases) seasons in 2012 (Ortiz, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey).

Just because they were bad doesn't mean they will see their fortunes turn around, but they shouldn't be THAT bad again.

 

[Corn Flake]

These are mostly all arms who should be starting the season in the minors. Having quality depth is a key to success so when injuries hit, as they always do, you have some options you can bring up or move in from the bullpen. Drabek is no better than a minor leaguer right now; Hutchinson and Stroman have MLB talent but are ridiculously raw and unseasoned; Redmond is minor league fodder/depth and Rogers is a bullpen guy who should only be a spot starter if there are no other options. Oh and Happ is a #6 starter. I think it's a mistake to have any of those arms starting in the rotation.

Boy am I a debbie downer today  :-X

I see it as:

1. Morrow (until he gets hurt again)
2. Dickey
3. Behurle
4/5: Romero, Happ, McGowan, Redmond, Rogers, Drabek.

Yep, scary. But maybe for once things will work out positively for this team and two of those guys will grab the 4/5 roles and run with them.

 

[Andy007]

These are mostly all arms who should be starting the season in the minors. Having quality depth is a key to success so when injuries hit, as they always do, you have some options you can bring up or move in from the bullpen. Drabek is no better than a minor leaguer right now; Hutchinson and Stroman have MLB talent but are ridiculously raw and unseasoned; Redmond is minor league fodder/depth and Rogers is a bullpen guy who should only be a spot starter if there are no other options. Oh and Happ is a #6 starter. I think it's a mistake to have any of those arms starting in the rotation.

Boy am I a debbie downer today  :-X

I see it as:

1. Morrow (until he gets hurt again)
2. Dickey
3. Behurle
4/5: Romero, Happ, McGowan, Redmond, Rogers, Drabek.

Yep, scary. But maybe for once things will work out positively for this team and two of those guys will grab the 4/5 roles and run with them.

Yea, scary indeed. Rogers should be in the bullpen; Redmond shouldn't be in the MLB and Drabek has been awful in AAA, to say nothing of his brief yet bad MLB performances. Romero being able to return as a back of the rotation guy would be huge, but that's another big 'if' we're talking about. Happ is barely passable as a #5. Heck Morrow can't even finish a full season, let alone pitch well consistently.

Hoping for things to work positively isn't going to be nearly enough; it's a matter of hoping for lightning to strike.

 

[pmrules]

These are mostly all arms who should be starting the season in the minors. Having quality depth is a key to success so when injuries hit, as they always do, you have some options you can bring up or move in from the bullpen. Drabek is no better than a minor leaguer right now; Hutchinson and Stroman have MLB talent but are ridiculously raw and unseasoned; Redmond is minor league fodder/depth and Rogers is a bullpen guy who should only be a spot starter if there are no other options. Oh and Happ is a #6 starter. I think it's a mistake to have any of those arms starting in the rotation.

Boy am I a debbie downer today  :-X

I see it as:

1. Morrow (until he gets hurt again)
2. Dickey
3. Behurle
4/5: Romero, Happ, McGowan, Redmond, Rogers, Drabek.

Yep, scary. But maybe for once things will work out positively for this team and two of those guys will grab the 4/5 roles and run with them.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/jays-left-hander-romero-turning-heads-in-camp/

Man...if Romero is back in form...that would be huge for the back end of the rotation.  Fingers crossed.

 

[Corn Flake]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/jays-left-hander-romero-turning-heads-in-camp/

Man...if Romero is back in form...that would be huge for the back end of the rotation.  Fingers crossed.

I wouldn't hold my breath for a split second, but yeah if it happens it would be huge. 

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Not getting my hopes up of course, but they were also saying he had some injury that he didn't really let on about and just tried to work through - I'm sure that had some impact upon his delivery too.

Would be a great story if he could come back and slot into the 5th spot and build from there.

 

[L K]

Spring training, yadda yadda yadda, but man have I been impressed with Hutchinson.  I honesty had no expectations for him coming into the year given that he had such a small sample size of moderate success two years ago but he looks great.

I know things are a little weird because pitchers are still just trying to get their pitches going and aren't really trying to pick corners but seriously.

9.2 IP 16 strikeouts, 1 walk, 68 of 73 pitches for strikes

That would be the kind of performance that could change the fate of the team.  If Hutch can come in remotely close to being this good, he might be the reliable #3 guy that the rotation is lacking.

 

[Deebo]

68 of 73 pitches for strikes

That's impressive.

 

[L K]

68 of 73 pitches for strikes

That's impressive.

Yeah, that has me really optimistic about his chances.  Even throwing at 85-90% because you are working more on location and feel for your pitches (especially offspeed stuff), they are playing in a lot of outdoor stadiums that have strange winds that can move pitches around on you.  Being that accurate is never something to look down on, and Hutch does have some movement to his pitches.

On the other hand, Goins is looking like he is going to be a disaster.  Guys like this should be raking in spring training because they should be coming into shape far more prepared than the elite players who have a routine that has them ready for Game 1 instead of March 15th.  He's hitting .188 with 3 walks.  All of his hits are singles so he has an OPS of .445

Again, ST numbers, but that's not going to be good enough even if he plays good defense.

 

[Deebo]

68 of 73 pitches for strikes

That's impressive.

Yeah, that has me really optimistic about his chances.  Even throwing at 85-90% because you are working more on location and feel for your pitches (especially offspeed stuff), they are playing in a lot of outdoor stadiums that have strange winds that can move pitches around on you.  Being that accurate is never something to look down on, and Hutch does have some movement to his pitches.

It's almost unbelievable, 5 of 73 pitches weren't for strikes, 4 came against 1 batter since he has 1 BB. So he's only thrown 1 ball against the other 25+ batters he's faced.

 

[Andy007]

68 of 73 pitches for strikes

That's impressive.

On the other hand, Goins is looking like he is going to be a disaster.  Guys like this should be raking in spring training because they should be coming into shape far more prepared than the elite players who have a routine that has them ready for Game 1 instead of March 15th.  He's hitting .188 with 3 walks.  All of his hits are singles so he has an OPS of .445

Again, ST numbers, but that's not going to be good enough even if he plays good defense.

Goins has a career OPS of barely .700 in the minors (And he is, what, 26??). He shouldn't be anywhere near a starting position in the MLB. Signing Drew for SS and moving Reyes to 2nd would be a huge upgrade imo but I guess the $ well has gone dry.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

68 of 73 pitches for strikes

That's impressive.

On the other hand, Goins is looking like he is going to be a disaster.  Guys like this should be raking in spring training because they should be coming into shape far more prepared than the elite players who have a routine that has them ready for Game 1 instead of March 15th.  He's hitting .188 with 3 walks.  All of his hits are singles so he has an OPS of .445

Again, ST numbers, but that's not going to be good enough even if he plays good defense.

Goins has a career OPS of barely .700 in the minors (And he is, what, 26??). He shouldn't be anywhere near a starting position in the MLB. Signing Drew for SS and moving Reyes to 2nd would be a huge upgrade imo but I guess the $ well has gone dry.

It's not good, but again, it's ST and doesn't really mean much until he doesn't do it in the regular season.  The new hitting coach seems to really like him so hopefully there's some room for improvement there.

But he doesn't have to hit that well to be an improvement on last season, and the offense isn't a big issue for this team (or shouldn't be).

 

[Kin]

On the other hand, Goins is looking like he is going to be a disaster.  Guys like this should be raking in spring training because they should be coming into shape far more prepared than the elite players who have a routine that has them ready for Game 1 instead of March 15th.  He's hitting .188 with 3 walks.  All of his hits are singles so he has an OPS of .445

Again, ST numbers, but that's not going to be good enough even if he plays good defense.

Yeah. If he hits to his career expectations then in order for him to even be a decent starter sort of player you'd be expecting him to win 2+ games solely with his glove which is essentially asking him to be one of the better defensive players in baseball.

I mean, maybe you want to give him two months but if he can't OPS around .700 then if the Jays have any inclination towards being a competitive ball club they would then want to start looking hard to make a change.

 

[Kin]

But he doesn't have to hit that well to be an improvement on last season, and the offense isn't a big issue for this team (or shouldn't be).

I've heard that argument for him before but, for what it's worth, Bonifacio's defensive numbers last year weren't terrible. BR has him with a positive dWAR and fangraphs has him as nominally positive according to UZR.

So if Goins is a replacement level hitter but does reach the heights of being  2 wins above replacement with his glove it's a pretty small positive for the club.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

But he doesn't have to hit that well to be an improvement on last season, and the offense isn't a big issue for this team (or shouldn't be).

I've heard that argument for him before but, for what it's worth, Bonifacio's defensive numbers last year weren't terrible. BR has him with a positive dWAR and fangraphs has him as nominally positive according to UZR.

So if Goins is a replacement level hitter but does reach the heights of being  2 wins above replacement with his glove it's a pretty small positive for the club.

How much of Bonifacio's numbers are TOR versus KC?  Extensive googling has told me his UZR at 2nd for the Jays may have been 0.0.  Hard to find any reference to what it was at the date he was dealt.  I know his fielding % at 2B was below league average as a Jay.  Plus I'm thinking of Izturis as well who had a -26.7 UZR/150 at 2B last season.

 

[Kin]

How much of Bonifacio's numbers are TOR versus KC?  Extensive googling has told me his UZR at 2nd for the Jays may have been 0.0.  Hard to find any reference to what it was at the date he was dealt.  I know his fielding % at 2B was below league average as a Jay.  Plus I'm thinking of Izturis as well who had a -26.7 UZR/150 at 2B last season.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/28877/type/fielding/emilio-bonifacio

That has his zone rating and his dWAR split between Toronto and KC. He grades out as positive at 2B for the Jays there too, although they probably just use BR's dWAR number.

Anyways, I still think the salient issue is that if Goins is a replacement level bat I don't think the Jays are good enough to not try and see if they can improve there. They had a good offense last year but it wasn't "we can write off offense from anyone" good.

 

[Andy007]

68 of 73 pitches for strikes

That's impressive.

On the other hand, Goins is looking like he is going to be a disaster.  Guys like this should be raking in spring training because they should be coming into shape far more prepared than the elite players who have a routine that has them ready for Game 1 instead of March 15th.  He's hitting .188 with 3 walks.  All of his hits are singles so he has an OPS of .445

Again, ST numbers, but that's not going to be good enough even if he plays good defense.

Goins has a career OPS of barely .700 in the minors (And he is, what, 26??). He shouldn't be anywhere near a starting position in the MLB. Signing Drew for SS and moving Reyes to 2nd would be a huge upgrade imo but I guess the $ well has gone dry.

It's not good, but again, it's ST and doesn't really mean much until he doesn't do it in the regular season.  The new hitting coach seems to really like him so hopefully there's some room for improvement there.

I don't care a lick about his Spring Training stats; I was listing his career minor league OPS of .706. He's also 26 yo. He won't be hitting anything this year, except for the links when the playoffs start, like the rest of this team.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Meant to be replying to LK there actually, I don't care a lick.

 

[Andy007]

Meant to be replying to LK there actually, I don't care a lick.

Ah no problem then, ignore my curmudgeon-ness

 

[Corn Flake]

Meant to be replying to LK there actually, I don't care a lick.

be careful what you lick. you might get the sick.