The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[bustaheims]

And even if they don't I don't see the difference in the two being very significant.

Yeah. Even with the injuries, Cabrera was only valued at about half a win more last season. So, if they end up with relatively similar value in 2015 to what they each provided in 2014, the players brought in thanks to the salary difference should easily make up the discrepancy between them. Even if you factor in having to replace Happ's 1.4 WAR from last season, it shouldn't be hard to cover and likely exceed the difference.

 

[Andy007]

Comparing WAR between position players and pitchers makes no sense. WAR for pitchers only calculates IP and Runs. You'd be better off using FIP but that doesn't correlate to Outfielders, just to other pitchers.

And, again, you are looking at projections. Saunders is always hurt. Putting up good numbers in limited at bats and projecting those stats over a full, gruelling year is misleading.

Let's look at Saunders' 2012 season, his ONLY full season in the majors:

He has a 2.2 War, which is nice and all, but his other numbers (40 walks:130 strikeouts; .306 OBP) are terrible. His OPS+ was 108. Cabrera's last year was 126.

Saunders' salary, his LH bat and his ability to play in a more hitter friendly park makes his acquisition a decent one. But the OF is still a huge mess and this solves very little unless Toronto acquires a major league level centre fielder.

 

[Kin]

Let's look at Saunders' 2012 season, his ONLY full season in the majors:

He has a 2.2 War, which is nice and all, but his other numbers (40 walks:130 strikeouts; .306 OBP) are terrible. His OPS+ was 108. Cabrera's last year was 126.

I think that's what people are doing. In 2012 Saunders had a 3.6 oWAR which is exactly what BR puts Melky at last year. In 2012, Saunders slash line on the road was .262/.326/.469. His split OPS+ was 123. He hit 11 homeruns and 19 doubles on the road. If Saunders can double that road performance, which assumes no advantage from hitting in the Dome, a .262 hitter with 22 homeruns and 38 doubles is roughly a Melky equivalent.

Saunder's bWAR that year is dragged down by a -1.1 dWAR but that's with roughly 80% of his defensive innings in Center, something the Jays are presumably not going to ask him to do. He's being asked to play an easier position.

So if he can hit like he did on the road in 2012 and is even a neutral fielder in Left, there's really no reason to think he can't be as valuable as Melky was last year.

 

[Kin]

Also, Saunders can't stay healthy and isn't a great fielder (not that Melky is, mind you). The Jays outfield is terrible right now and they have a worse rotation that has to now take pitcher(s) from what was a barely average bullpen.

He's a poor defensive CF and a rather ordinary defensive LF, but, once Seattle moved him to RF, his defensive metrics vastly improved - to the point where he was pretty good. It's conceivable he could translate some of that ability to LF in the future. So, while he may not be a great fielder, as long as he's not in CF, he's not a poor one, either.

To be fair, I think that should give you a little bit of pause when taking these defensive metrics too seriously. There's really no reason why someone should be a better right fielder than left fielder and the ability to play both positions is largely the same, with Left field requiring a slightly less strong arm.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Also, I wonder what Maicer Izturis' status is for next season?

 

[Andy007]

Let's look at Saunders' 2012 season, his ONLY full season in the majors:

He has a 2.2 War, which is nice and all, but his other numbers (40 walks:130 strikeouts; .306 OBP) are terrible. His OPS+ was 108. Cabrera's last year was 126.

I think that's what people are doing. In 2012 Saunders had a 3.6 oWAR which is exactly what BR puts Melky at last year. In 2012, Saunders slash line on the road was .262/.326/.469. His split OPS+ was 123. He hit 11 homeruns and 19 doubles on the road. If Saunders can double that road performance, which assumes no advantage from hitting in the Dome, a .262 hitter with 22 homeruns and 38 doubles is roughly a Melky equivalent.

Saunder's bWAR that year is dragged down by a -1.1 dWAR but that's with roughly 80% of his defensive innings in Center, something the Jays are presumably not going to ask him to do. He's being asked to play an easier position.

So if he can hit like he did on the road in 2012 and is even a neutral fielder in Left, there's really no reason to think he can't be as valuable as Melky was last year.

Yes there is reason because the guy can't stay healthy. He has chronic arm/oblique problems. Advanced stats make this guy look a little better than he actually is too. He's coming to an awful stadium with terrible turf; he'll be lucky to get 300 at bats this upcoming season.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Let's look at Saunders' 2012 season, his ONLY full season in the majors:

He has a 2.2 War, which is nice and all, but his other numbers (40 walks:130 strikeouts; .306 OBP) are terrible. His OPS+ was 108. Cabrera's last year was 126.

I think that's what people are doing. In 2012 Saunders had a 3.6 oWAR which is exactly what BR puts Melky at last year. In 2012, Saunders slash line on the road was .262/.326/.469. His split OPS+ was 123. He hit 11 homeruns and 19 doubles on the road. If Saunders can double that road performance, which assumes no advantage from hitting in the Dome, a .262 hitter with 22 homeruns and 38 doubles is roughly a Melky equivalent.

Saunder's bWAR that year is dragged down by a -1.1 dWAR but that's with roughly 80% of his defensive innings in Center, something the Jays are presumably not going to ask him to do. He's being asked to play an easier position.

So if he can hit like he did on the road in 2012 and is even a neutral fielder in Left, there's really no reason to think he can't be as valuable as Melky was last year.

Yes there is reason because the guy can't stay healthy. He has chronic arm/oblique problems. Advanced stats make this guy look a little better than he actually is too. He's coming to an awful stadium with terrible turf; he'll be lucky to get 300 at bats this upcoming season.

That was said about Reyes too.  Reality is we can't really predict injuries or react to them until they happen.

 

[Andy007]

Uh...Reyes has been repeatedly injured and is awful on the turf. Same thing with Lawrie..and Morrow...And the same thing will happen with Saunders. The reality is that for certain players you absolutely can predict injuries.

If someone like Buerhle or Encarnacion gets injured well now that is something you can't predict.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Uh...Reyes has been repeatedly injured and is awful on the turf.

Repeatedly injured due to the turf?  I recall him being significantly injured in Kansas City and then played in 143 games last season. 

Can you not roll off a list of injuries for every team in the league?  Half the pitchers in baseball seemingly were injured last season.

The question wasn't whether he was awful or not.

EDIT: Case in point:

But for one thing, Saunders was more valuable in his partial season than Happ was in his full season. And for another, it can be hard to distinguish between fragility and bad luck. Nelson Cruz was fragile until he became durable. A year ago we were talking about Jacoby Ellsbury?s injury-proneness, and then he played in 149 games. The Mariners know some things about Saunders other teams don?t, but if you want to think about it mathematically, injury-proneness seems like the sort of skill that would take an awful long time to stabilize. Saunders is young, and if there were issues with his work ethic, say, that?s the kind of thing that can change.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mariners-get-depth-blue-jays-get-better/

 

[Andy007]

Uh...Reyes has been repeatedly injured and is awful on the turf.

Repeatedly injured due to the turf?  I recall him being significantly injured in Kansas City and then played in 143 games last season. 

Can you not roll off a list of injuries for every team in the league?  Half the pitchers in baseball seemingly were injured last season.

The question wasn't whether he was awful or not.

He missed 20 games last year and played in that many only because the Jays have no one else to play shortstop. His OBP dropped 30 points. He could barely run at points. He has nagging injuries that are never going to get better because of the turf.

I'm talking about players who are injury risks and consequently become repeatedly injured. Saunders is 28 and has only hit 500 at bats once. His next highest is 400. Then 280. He will be hurt. It will be great if I am proven wrong.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Uh...Reyes has been repeatedly injured and is awful on the turf.

Repeatedly injured due to the turf?  I recall him being significantly injured in Kansas City and then played in 143 games last season. 

Can you not roll off a list of injuries for every team in the league?  Half the pitchers in baseball seemingly were injured last season.

The question wasn't whether he was awful or not.

He missed 20 games last year and played in that many only because the Jays have no one else to play shortstop. His OBP dropped 30 points. He could barely run at points. He has nagging injuries that are never going to get better because of the turf.

I'm talking about players who are injury risks and consequently become repeatedly injured. Saunders is 28 and has only hit 500 at bats once. His next highest is 400. Then 280. He will be hurt. It will be great if I am proven wrong.

So where are these chronic arm/oblique problems you say he has?  I can't seem to find info on him having chronic arm/oblique issues.  Reading a Mariners' fan forum they don't seem to understand the 'always injured' thing - say he ran into a wall and injured his shoulder 2 seasons ago, this past season pulled a muscle in his side, pulled it again and then had a viral infection.  Also comments that he was benched for periods which made M's fans angry.

Before 2012 he was blocked by Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro and couldn't get playing time.  Since being promoted he's played in 139, 132, and 78 games.

So in the 3 years he's been with the team he's only not played 130 games once, partially due to a virus.

I really don't see where he has "chronic" injury issues like you say he does.

 

[Andy007]

His last injury was strained left oblique. The preceding one was joint inflammation. Year prior he sprained AC joint in his shoulder. He had a shoulder strain last year too. He sounds a lot like Lawrie in that he is a high energy high effort player that gets himself into injury trouble. I think that will be especially troubling on the turf.

 

[Kin]

Yes there is reason because the guy can't stay healthy. He has chronic arm/oblique problems. Advanced stats make this guy look a little better than he actually is too. He's coming to an awful stadium with terrible turf; he'll be lucky to get 300 at bats this upcoming season.

I mean, even if you're right about health issues that's more of a reason why I wouldn't bet my house on him being as valuable as Melky last year and not so much a reason as to why he's not capable of it.

Also, here are his games played and PA's by year(minors and majors):

2010: 121/420
2011: 112/470
2012: 139/553
2013: 135/484
2014: 93/334

He also had several seasons over 500 PA's exclusively in the minors. I tried finding data for how often he's been on the DL but couldn't. In 2013 though of his 126 games in the field he only started 109 of them and only finished 93. That, which explains his relatively low PA/Games played ratio that year, indicates that what might look like health problems in his numbers could also be just his manager choosing not to play him. Either way, it doesn't look like he's incapable of playing a full season.

Regardless, maybe it's just me but I don't think that home/away splits are really advanced stats. He's shown he can be a productive offensive player on the road, he's moving to a good hitting park. If health is the only real obstacle to him contributing at a similar rate that Melky did then even the 400+ PA's he's shown himself fully capable at the major league level is a pretty solid return here.

 

[Andy007]

Yes there is reason because the guy can't stay healthy. He has chronic arm/oblique problems. Advanced stats make this guy look a little better than he actually is too. He's coming to an awful stadium with terrible turf; he'll be lucky to get 300 at bats this upcoming season.

I mean, even if you're right about health issues that's more of a reason why I wouldn't bet my house on him being as valuable as Melky last year and not so much a reason as to why he's not capable of it.

Also, here are his games played and PA's by year(minors and majors):

2010: 121/420
2011: 112/470
2012: 139/553
2013: 135/484
2014: 93/334

He also had several seasons over 500 PA's exclusively in the minors. I tried finding data for how often he's been on the DL but couldn't. In 2013 though of his 126 games in the field he only started 109 of them and only finished 93. That, which explains his relatively low PA/Games played ratio that year, indicates that what might look like health problems in his numbers could also be just his manager choosing not to play him. Either way, it doesn't look like he's incapable of playing a full season.

Regardless, maybe it's just me but I don't think that home/away splits are really advanced stats. He's shown he can be a productive offensive player on the road, he's moving to a good hitting park. If health is the only real obstacle to him contributing at a similar rate that Melky did then even the 400+ PA's he's shown himself fully capable at the major league level is a pretty solid return here.

Who said home/away stats are advanced stats?

Saunders had one season where he had 200 at bats on the road and it projected well. Great. His 100 at bats on the road projected well last year too. He certainly has potential. And he's cheap. Let's hope he can play more than half a season. There is no centre fielder and no backup fielder to speak of so the Jays certainly need him to stay healthy for once in his major league career.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

There is no centre fielder and no backup fielder to speak of so the Jays certainly need him to stay healthy for once in his major league career.

Pompey is the centre fielder.

Again, I don't get what you mean by "for once" - he played 130+ games each season prior to this one and in his first season he just wasn't consistently played enough by his coach.  You seem to really be stretching to dislike this deal.

I don't know if he'll be hurt or not.  Right now, it's a good deal for the Jays.

 

[Kin]

Who said home/away stats are advanced stats?

I suppose I inferred that from your "advanced stats make him look better than he is" line because all the "advanced" stats are doing in this case, I think, are compensating for the park effects he's played with in his career and reflecting that he's played more difficult defensive positions than Melky.

Other than that I wouldn't know what you meant by that because all of these stats are applied the same to everyone.

Saunders had one season where he had 200 at bats on the road and it projected well. Great. His 100 at bats on the road projected well last year too.

Using someone's road numbers when they have a big park swing the way Saunders did isn't a projection, it's context. It's establishing real value, not what his value might be. The value of a run in Safeco isn't the same as the value of a run in the Dome and a .800 OPS hitter in Seattle performed better than one in Toronto, full stop.

That said, obviously health matters and doing what Cabrera did last year for 600+ plate appearances is more valuable than any season of hitting Saunders has had. The difference in cost between Saunders and Cabrera reflects that Cabrera is probably the safer choice. If you asked me who I'd rather have all things being equal, I'd probably say Cabrera.

But realistically that wasn't the choice the Jays had and all things aren't equal. The Jays used a surplus starter and got back someone who looks like he can replicate Melky's productivity at a much cheaper price with the caveat of having to stay healthy. To be honest, as thin as the bench is, I'd make that trade even if they re-signed Melky.

 

[Andy007]

Pompey is 21. Pillar is a minor leaguer. When Saunders gets hurt that is going to be one painful outfield.

 

[Andy007]

I suppose I inferred that from your "advanced stats make him look better than he is" line because all the "advanced" stats are doing in this case, I think, are compensating for the park effects he's played with in his career and reflecting that he's played more difficult defensive positions than Melky.

Home/Away stats = "Split Stats."
Metrics involving multiple equations = "Advanced Stats." These are the stats that say that this guy was terrible in CF, bad in LF but great in RF. That doesn't make a lick of sense.

Anyway Cabrera is moot. I haven't mentioned him once. I don't care about him. The Jays have a poor outfield with 0 depth and my take is that Saunders is only a minor addition. It's so simple that I suppose you can stop all of your 'inferring' and 'supposing', I suppose.

 

[Joe S.]

I'd just like to point out that the jays did win a world series with candy Maldonado as an everyday player. Not every position has to have an all star player to be competitive.

 

[Andy007]

I'd just like to point out that the jays did win a world series with candy Maldonado as an everyday player. Not every position has to have an all star player to be competitive.

You're referring to the two years in Toronto where he posted a .821 and .819 OPS?